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Soiling of PV modules is an issue causing non-negligible losses on PV power plants, between 3 and 4% of the total energy production. Cleaning is the most common way to mitigate soiling. The impact of the cleaning activity can be significant, both in terms of cost and resources consumption. For these reasons, it is important to monitor and predict soiling profiles and establish an optimal cleaning schedule. Especially in locations where raining is irregular or where desert winds carry a high concentration of particles, it is also important to know how precipitation and dust events affect the soiling ratio. This paper presents a new model based on environmental conditions that helps the decision-making process of the cleaning schedule. The model was validated by the analysis of five large grid-connected PV plants in Spain over two years of operation, with a total power of 200 MW. The comparison between the model and soiling sensors at the five locations was included. Excellent results were achieved, the mean difference between sensors and model being 0.71%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aiming at the problem that power load data are stochastic and that it is difficult to obtain accurate forecasting results by a single algorithm, in this paper, a combined forecasting method for short-term power load was proposed based on the Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN)-sample entropy (SE), the BP neural network (BPNN), and the Transformer model. Firstly, the power load data were decomposed into several power load subsequences with obvious complexity differences by using the CEEMDAN-SE. Then, BPNN and Transformer model were used to forecast the subsequences with low complexity and the subsequences with high complexity, respectively. Finally, the forecasting results of each subsequence were superimposed to obtain the final forecasting result. The simulation was taken from our proposed model and six forecasting models by using the load dataset from a certain area of Spain. The results showed that the MAPE of our proposed CEEMDAN-SE-BPNN-Transformer model was 1.1317%, while the RMSE was 304.40, which was better than the selected six forecasting models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of Short-Term Forecasting Techniques has a great importance for power system scheduling and managing. Therefore, many recent research papers have dealt with the proposal of new forecasting models searching for higher efficiency and accuracy. Several kinds of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have provided good performance at predicting and their efficiency mainly depends on the characteristics of the time series data under study. Load forecasting has been widely studied in recent decades and models providing mean absolute percentage errors (MAPEs) below 5% have been proposed. On the other hand, short-term generation forecasting models for photovoltaic plants have been more recently developed and the MAPEs are in general still far from those achieved from load forecasting models. The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology that could help power systems or aggregators to make up for the lack of accuracy of the current forecasting methods when predicting renewable energy generation. The proposed methodology is carried out in three consecutive steps: (1) short-term forecasting of energy consumption and renewable generation; (2) classification of daily pattern for the renewable generation data using Dynamic Time Warping; (3) application of Demand Response strategies using Physically Based Load Models. Real data from a small town in Spain were used to illustrate the performance and efficiency of the proposed procedure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thermostatic load control systems are widespread in many countries. Since they provide heat for domestic hot water and space heating on a massive scale in the residential sector, the assessment of their energy performance and the effect of different control strategies requires simplified modeling techniques demanding a small number of inputs and low computational resources. Data-driven techniques are envisaged as one of the best options to meet these constraints. This paper presents a novel methodology consisting of the combination of an optimization algorithm, two auto-regressive models and a control loop algorithm able to virtually replicate the control of thermostatically driven systems. This combined strategy includes all the thermostatically controlled modes governed by the set point temperature and enables automatic assessment of the energy consumption impact of multiple scenarios. The required inputs are limited to available historical readings from smart thermostats and external climate data sources. The methodology has been trained and validated with data sets coming from a selection of 11 smart thermostats, connected to gas boilers, placed in several households located in north-eastern Spain. Important conclusions of the research are that these techniques can estimate the temperature decay of households when the space heating is off as well as the energy consumption needed to reach the comfort conditions. The results of the research also show that estimated median energy savings of 18.1% and 36.5% can be achieved if the usual set point temperature schedule is lowered by 1 °C and 2 °C, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a methodology to calculate day-ahead wind speed predictions based on historical measurements done by weather stations. The methodology was tested for three locations: Colombia, Ecuador, and Spain. The data is input into the process in two ways: (1) As a single time series containing all measurements, and (2) as twenty-four separate parallel sequences, corresponding to the values of wind speed at each of the 24 h in the day over several months. The methodology relies on the use of three non-parametric techniques: Least-squares support vector machines, empirical mode decomposition, and the wavelet transform. Moreover, the traditional and simple auto-regressive model is applied. The combination of the aforementioned techniques results in nine methods for performing wind prediction. Experiments using a matlab implementation showed that the least-squares support vector machine using data as a single time series outperformed the other combinations, obtaining the least root mean square error (RMSE). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]