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The process of carbon neutrality does have economic costs; however, few studies have measured the cost and the economic neutral opportunities. This paper uses a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate China's carbon neutrality path from 2020 to 2060 and analyzes its economic impact. This paper innovatively adjusts the CGE modeling technology and simulates the boundary of the Porter hypothesis on the premise of economic neutrality. The results show that the carbon neutrality target may reduce the annual GDP growth rate by about 0.8% in 2020–2060. To make the carbon pricing method under the carbon neutrality framework meet the strong version of the Porter hypothesis (or economic neutrality), China must increase its annual total factor productivity by 0.56–0.57% in 2020–2060; this is hard to achieve. In addition, the study finds that China's 2030 carbon target has little impact on the economy, but the achievement of the 2060 carbon neutrality target will have a significant effect. Therefore, the paper believes that the key to carbon neutrality lies in the coexistence of technological innovation and carbon pricing to ensure that we can cope with global warming with the lowest cost and resistance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Through extensive data research and analysis, this paper comprehensively summarizes the status and key insights of global carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) development. It aims to gain a comprehensive understanding of the relevant policies, technologies, and security measures adopted by major countries in their CCS development processes. Furthermore, it explores the existing status and limitations of China's offshore development efforts, while providing valuable recommendations for enhancing China's offshore CCS initiatives, as well as serving as a reference for other nations worldwide. Offshore CCS plays a crucial role for China to achieve the development target of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, due to its energy structure and industrial distribution. While China possesses significant offshore CCS potential, achieving commercialization still requires substantial efforts. To facilitate the process and draw insights from successful experiences in other countries, this paper illustrates the characteristics and generalizes the experience of offshore CCS industry practices in America, Europe and Japan, respectively. Furthermore, it is recommended that a new round of investigation into offshore CCS potential be conducted, while promoting integrated collaboration between geological surveying and marine scientific research. Additionally, further research on industrial policies and green financial strategies should be undertaken. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In light of the carbon neutrality goals set post-Paris Climate Conference (COP21), this study delves into the relationship between green technology innovations, energy consumption, and CO2 emissions in China, spanning the period of 1990 to 2021. The objective of this paper is to creatively present the idea of a low-carbon digital economy from the viewpoint of digital technology. Utilizing the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model, we scrutinize this relationship, employing unit-root testing to verify the integrative attributes of the variables, inclusive of structural break data. Further analysis using the bootstrap Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound testing method corroborates the relationship between these key variables. The study reveals unidirectional co-integration over time among green technology innovations, renewable and non-renewable energy, per capita income, population, and CO2 emissions as per the Granger causality test. Interestingly, our findings suggest that while green technology innovation, per capita income, and renewable energy contribute to the reduction of CO2 emissions, non-renewable energy consumption and population growth exacerbate them. These insights offer valuable guidance for policymakers in formulating comprehensive strategies to enhance environmental quality through the promotion of renewable energy and green technology innovations, with a specific emphasis on the Chinese context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, China has proposed the goal of peaking carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, which will significantly alter its existing coal-based energy mix. Since coal is China's primary source of energy and the largest contributor to carbon emissions, coal reduction is an important measure toward carbon neutrality. In order to guarantee the stable development of economy and society in the process of coal reduction, the path and cost of coal reduction need to be studied in depth. Based on coal use in China, this paper examines and measures the stages and costs of coal reduction. It also gives a definition for coal reduction costs for the first time, including economic cost, environment and ecology cost, and health cost, as well as proposes a framework for analyzing the "full cost, full process, and full scenario". We measure the cost in combination with the KAYA formula, and take into account the time value of the cost. Based on the above measurement framework, we calculate the unit coal reduction cost and estimate the coal reduction cost between CNY 454.38 and 827.1 billion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming is a critical crisis threatening human survival and development. International organizations and countries worldwide are introducing policies and practices to achieve carbon neutrality. In China, numerous carbon neutrality policies have been established; however, a systematic understanding of the underlying policy logic is lacking. Using the institutional analysis and development (IAD) framework, this paper analyzes selected carbon neutrality policies in China. We conducted a bibliometric visualization analysis of the texts of 20 policies and matched their logic to the elements of the IAD framework. We established 90 keywords with occurrences of no less than 10 times in China's carbon neutrality policies. The network visualization analysis identified six clusters. We discuss implementation challenges of China's carbon neutrality policies, address the policy implementation, and finally outline impacts on China's carbon neutrality governance. This study responds to the global concern over China's carbon neutrality commitments by clarifying the institutional logic of China's policies and actions. This study could provide a reference for countries worldwide that are designing and introducing carbon neutrality policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrogen is crucial in achieving global energy transition and carbon neutrality goals. Existing market estimates typically presume linear or exponential growth but fail to consider how market demand responds to the declining cost of underlying technologies. To address this, this study utilizes a learning curve model to project the cost of electrolyzers and its subsequent impact on hydrogen market, aligning with a premise that the market demand is proportional to the cost of hydrogen. In a case study of China's hydrogen market, projecting from 2020 to 2060, we observed substantial differences in market evolution compared to exponential growth scenarios. Contrary to exponential growth scenarios, China's hydrogen market experiences faster growth during the 2020–2040 period rather than later. Such differences underscore the necessity for proactive strategic planning in emerging technology markets, particularly for those experiencing rapid cost decline, such as hydrogen. The framework can also be extended to other markets by using local data, providing valuable insights to investors, policymakers, and developers engaged in the hydrogen market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a global move toward being "carbon neutral". Reducing the use of coal to generate power has become an inevitable choice for many countries when transforming their energy structures. Many countries have proposed phasing out coal. China is a major energy producing and consuming country and intends to reach a carbon peak by 2030 and become carbon neutral by 2060. China has repeatedly emphasized coal reduction, but has not explicitly proposed phasing out coal, due to the influence of local governments, coal-related enterprises, and the public. This paper explores whether China could declare a "coal phase-out", and the possible reasons for doing so, by constructing an evolutionary game model with two correlations. MATLAB was used to simulate the model results to determine the effectiveness of the fractal results of the model, and the entropy method was used to calculate the development level of "coal phase-out" related indicators in China and Germany. The results show that: (1) The government can phase out coal only when coal-related enterprises and the public can benefit from reducing coal production and consumption. In addition, these benefits are needed to ensure stable economic and social development without affecting people's daily lives; (2) The development level of relevant indicators of "coal retreat" in China is lower than that in Germany. Based on these results, it is concluded that it is difficult for China to announce a "coal phase-out" at present. Faced with this reality, China should improve the efficiency of coal use, install carbon capture and storage facilities, vigorously develop renewable energy and reduce the share of coal in the energy system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Smog pollution is a severe social and environmental concern for the space-heating regions in China due to fossil-intensive space heating. To reduce polluting emissions and improve social and environmental performance, local government agencies should choose adequate cleaner space-heating technologies based on diverse local conditions. This implies that all cleaner heating solutions should be considered, including low-emissions fossil fuel district heating and low-emissions fossil fuel decentralized heating as transitional technologies, as well as biomass and electricity-driven heat pumps as long-term solutions. However, stakeholders such as policy makers, equipment manufacturers, and house owners, often lack necessary information to assess the feasibility for installing adequate heating solutions at the local level. It is therefore necessary to establish a systematic method to evaluate each heating solution in various geolocations of China. This paper reviews the current heating situation in China and proposes a spatial system analysis method as a tool for heating-solution feasibility evaluation. By applying the spatial system analysis method, a qualitative investigation on the choice of heating solution in different regions of China is provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Green bonds have increasingly been utilized around the world as a source of financing for renewable energy development, designed with compliance requirements and measurable economic returns to investors, while mitigating climate change. However, the efficacy of green bond arranged in the emerging economies for financing renewable energy assets and how the underlying risks are managed have remained to be explored. The paper aims to examine the evolving green financial system sponsored by both public and private institutions in managing such risks within China's emerging economy. A case study of green financing for a bundle of wind power assets led by a state-owned enterprise (SOE) reveals an alternative approach by structuring public–private collaboration while stipulating market-based financial incentives to institutional stakeholders under a political economy. This institutional consortium is composed of a state development bank, a commercial bank, credit rating agencies, institutional and private investors, regional power purchasers, and carbon trading entities. Financial stakeholders' risk in such emerging sustainable investment is moderated by these participating institutions and structured "upsides" from carbon trading aligned with the framework of green finance and standards for green bond development. The results reveal the potentials of scaling up the development of renewable energy by adequately managing and sharing key risks, while allocating substantial funding into renewable energy projects under such a green financial system that is to be complementary with a scalable post COVID-19 economic recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fast-growing petrochemical industry is one of the largest energy consumers and emitters in China, exerting a strong impact on the national economic, energy and environmental systems. We provide a holistic picture of energy consumption and energy-related CO2 emissions from China's petrochemical industry in 2012 through an environmental input-output life-cycle assessment (EIO-LCA). We combine two perspectives: (1) direct energy consumption and emissions, and (2) the indirect energy and emissions embodied and reallocated from other sectors in the supply chain to satisfy final demand in the petrochemical industry. Results indicate that the total of its direct and indirect energy consumption and CO2 emissions accounts for approximately 32% and 18% of China's industrial total, respectively, exerting high "influence" and "induction" with regards to the rest of the economic sectors. Most of the petrochemical industry's embodied energy and CO2 emissions comes from the "Production and Supply of Electric and Heat Power". We also identified five other sectors key to China's energy conservation and CO2 mitigation efforts due to their high influence and induction effects: "Smelting and Pressing of Ferrous Metals", "Manufacture of Non-metallic Mineral Products", "Smelting and Pressing of Non-ferrous Metals", "Transport, Storage and Post", and "Mining and Washing of Coal". A systematic view of direct and indirect energy, environmental relationships, and the conveying effects among sectors is crucial for policymaking in China to achieve its energy and mitigation goals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coal's green mining and scientific utilization is the key to achieve the national vision of carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. Clarifying the CO2 flow of coal production is the core part of decarbonization. This study uses an environmental extended multi-regional input–output (EEMRIO) model to analyze the impact of embodied emissions on the indirect CO2 emission intensity of coal production between China's coal mining sector and 141 countries/regions. It is found that the CO2 emission intensity of China's coal production was 34.14 gCO2/MJ in 2014, while the direct and indirect emission intensities were 16.22 gCO2/MJ and 17.92 gCO2/MJ, respectively. From 2007 to 2014, the direct emission intensity of China's coal production increased by 23%, while the indirect emission intensity decreased by 30%. The key material and service inputs affecting indirect carbon emissions of coal production in China are electricity service, metal manufacturing, chemical products, coal mining, and transport, which accounted for 85.5% of the total indirect emission intensity of coal production in 2014. Globally, a large portion of CO2 from Chinese coal production is emitted to meet foreign direct and indirect demands for material and service inputs. Policy implications related to this outcome are further discussed in the study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To solve the problem of rising energy use and CO2 emissions, China issued the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2020, emphasizing the need to reduce its carbon intensity and achieve a carbon emission peak before 2030. In order to estimate the future path of carbon peak in China, a novel dataset was constructed to analyze 30 provinces in China, and found that the realization of carbon peaking in 2025 requires a reduction of 1.072 million tons of carbon emissions in 2025, at which point peak carbon emissions will be 11,008.4 million tons. Due to this energy gap caused by carbon emission reduction the total amount of clean electricity has reached 3600 billion kWh. In carbon emission allowance trading, provinces with large carbon emissions, like Jiangsu and Guangdong, prefer to buy carbon allowances, while those with small carbon emissions like Shanxi and Inner Mongolia prefer to sell carbon allowances. In the energy trading market, the overall situation meets the 14th Five-Year Plan of west-east and north-south power transmission, except for Shanghai, Hainan, Hubei, and other provinces selling power, due to excessive power generation from a particular energy source. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The analysis of the implementation effect of the supply-side reform (SSR) in the industrial sector of China's provinces and the reasons behind them are of great significance for China to formulate relevant policies in the future. However, this work has not yet been carried out. Industrial development performance is closely related to energy and environmental efficiency (EEE), and the effect of the SSR implementation is directly reflected in EEE. This study fills this gap by analyzing the EEE of 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2017 using data envelopment analysis and Malmquist index methods. The results show that the positive effect of China's implementation of SSR has emerged. This positive effect is mainly reflected in the implementation of measures such as reducing overcapacity, which has promoted the technological innovation of enterprises. However, the low management level and resource-allocation efficiency hinder the further improvement of the implementation effect of the SSR, which should be paid special attention to in China's future supply-side reform. In addition, we believe that in the context of China's high-quality development and carbon neutrality goals, the SSR should be given more connotations, which are to increase the requirements for strengthening green and low-carbon development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The extensive and close economic linkages among different regions of China have effects not only on regional economic growth, but also on CO2 emissions and carbon leakage among regions. Taking Beijing as a study case, we constructed MRIO models for China's 30 provinces and municipalities for 2002, 2007 and 2010, to measure the embodied CO2 emissions in the interregional trade of China on regional and industrial levels to explore their changes over time, and to analyze the driving forces of the final demand-induced interregional CO2 emissions through an SDA model. Results showed that Beijing was a surplus region for embodied carbon and the net input embodied CO2 emissions were in industries with high CO2 emission coefficients, while the net output embodied carbon was in industries with low carbon-emission coefficients. Beijing's trade with non-Beijing areas led to an increase in the total CO2 emissions in China and a composite effect of Beijing and the efficiency effect of non-Beijing areas were the main effects behind the reduction of Beijing's input embodied carbon. The results have yielded important implications for China's CO2 emissions control: first, the embodied CO2 need be taken into consideration when formulating CO2 emissions control measures; second, CO2 emission reduction requirements should be reasonably distributed across the provinces to reduce carbon leakage in interprovincial trade; third, the consumption structure in the production chain needs to be moderately adjusted; and last but not least, financial and technical support for CO2 emissions control in the central and western provinces should be strengthened. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China hosts over half of global coal-fired power generation capacity and has the world's largest coal reserves. Its 2060 carbon neutrality goal will require coal-fired electricity generation to shrink dramatically, with or without carbon capture and storage technology. Two macroeconomic areas in which the socioeconomic impact of this decline is felt are losses in jobs and tax revenues supported by thermal coal mining, transport and power generation. At the national level, under a 'baseline' (B) scenario consistent with China's carbon neutrality goal, labour productivity growth in coal mining implies that significant job losses will occur nationally in the medium term, even if all coal plants continue operating as planned. Jobs supported by the coal power industry would decline from an estimated 2.7 million in 2021, to 1.44 million in 2035 and 94,000 in 2050, with jobs losses from mining alone expected to exceed 1.1 million by 2035. Tax revenues from thermal coal would total approximately CNY 300 billion annually from 2021–2030, peaking in 2023 at CNY 340 billion. This is significantly less than estimated subsidies of at least CNY 480 billion, suggesting coal is likely a net fiscal drain on China's public finances, even without accounting for the costs of local pollution and the social cost of carbon. As coal plant retirements accelerate, from 2034 onwards, fiscal revenues begin to fall more rapidly, with rates of decline rising from 1% in the 2020s to over 10% a year by the 2040s. More aggressive climate policy and technology scenarios bring job and tax losses forward in time, while a No Transition policy, in which all currently planned coal plants are built, delays but does not ultimately prevent these losses. At the provincial level, China's major coal-producing provinces will likely face challenges in managing the localised effects of expected job losses and finding productive alternative uses for this labour. Governments of coal-producing provinces like Inner Mongolia, with an industry highly dependent on exports to other provinces, are more exposed than others to declining tax revenues from coal, and more insulated from job losses, given their high current degree of labour efficiency. Although their provincial revenues are likely to remain stable until the early 2030s under the B scenario, the possibility of increasing policy stringency underlines the need for revenue and skill base diversification. At the firm level, China's 'Big Five' state-owned power companies were responsible for over 40% of both jobs and tax revenues in 2021. The number of jobs supported by the activities of each of the largest ten firms, with one exception, will decline by 71–84% by the early 2040s, with the tax contribution of each declining by 43–69% in the same period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]