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In this paper, we present an unprecedented method based on Kohonen networks that is able to automatically recognize partial discharge (PD) classes from phase-resolved partial discharge (PRPD) diagrams with features of various simultaneous PD patterns. The PRPD diagrams were obtained from the stator windings of a real-world hydro-generator rotating machine. The proposed approach integrates classification probabilities into the Kohonen method, producing self-organizing probability maps (SOPMs). For building SOPMs, a group of PRPD diagrams, each containing a single PD pattern for training the Kohonen networks and single- and multiple-class-featured samples for obtaining final SOPMs, is used to calculate the probabilities of each Kohonen neuron to be associated with the various PD classes considered. At the end of this process, a self-organizing probability map is produced. Probabilities are calculated using distances, obtained in the space of features, between neurons and samples. The so-produced SOPM enables the effective classification of PRPD samples and provides the probability that a given PD sample is associated with a PD class. In this work, amplitude histograms are the features extracted from PRPDs maps. Our results demonstrate an average classification accuracy rate of approximately 90% for test samples. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The selection of multiple contingency scenarios is a key task to perform resilience-oriented long-term planning analyses. However, the identification of relevant multiple contingencies may easily lead to combinatorial explosion issues, even for relatively small systems. This paper proposes an effective methodology for the identification of relevant multiple contingencies and their probabilities, suitable for the long-term resilience analysis of large power systems. The methodology is composed of two main pillars: (1) the clustering of lines that are more likely to fail together, to reduce the computational complexity of the analysis exploiting historical weather data and (2) the probability-based identification of multiple contingencies within each cluster, where the contingency probability is computed applying the copula theory. Tests performed on a portion of the Italian EHV transmission system confirm the validity of the clustering results compared against historical failure events. Moreover, the copula-based algorithm for contingency probability estimation passes the tests carried out on relatively large clusters with very low error tolerance. The method successfully pinpoints critical multiple contingency scenarios and their likelihoods, making it valuable for assessing power system resilience over long-term horizons in support of resilience-oriented planning activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After a transmission line is covered by ice in winter, ice-shedding and vibration occurs under special meteorological and external dynamic conditions, which leads to intense transmission line shaking. Transmission line ice-shedding and vibration often cause line flashover trips and outages. In January 2018, three 500 kV transmission lines, namely, the 500 kV Guanli line, the 500 kV Dushan line, and the 500 kV Guanqiao line, tripped and cut off due to ice-shedding and vibration in Anhui province, seriously threatening the safe operation of a large power grid. Current studies mainly focus on analyzing the influence factors and characteristics of line ice-shedding and investigating suppression measures, but they only analyze the correlation between each influencing factor and icing or shedding, and do not consider the coupling effects between multiple factors. In this paper, the key influencing factors and the probability distribution of transmission line ice-shedding were analyzed, and a multiple-factor coupling fault probability calculation model of line ice-shedding based on Copula function was proposed. The fault probability was calculated directly by considering multiple influence factors at the same time, which effectively overcame the error caused by multi-factor transformation in fuzzy membership degree and other methods. It provided an important decision-making basis for preventing and controlling transmission line ice-shedding faults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aging process of transmission lines has a direct impact on the reliability and safety of the power grid. Therefore, an accurate age estimation method is imperative for effective maintenance planning and infrastructure investment. This paper introduces a systematic methodology for estimating the age of overhead transmission lines, utilizing the percentage statistical health index (%SHI) and the failure probability curve-fitting (FPCF) method. The %SHI, employing a scoring and weighting approach derived from test results and inspections, is used to assess the actual condition of transmission line equipment. Additionally, the FPCF approach is applied to illustrate the connection between the SHI and the likelihood of failure, facilitating the assessment of transmission line age by fitting failure probability curves to the SHI data. This age is directly associated with the probability of experiencing a failure. The evaluation was conducted on 924 towers situated along four transmission lines connecting the 115 kV substations S1–S2, S3–S4, S5–S6, and S7–S8. These transmission lines are in four regions with diverse terrain and environments such as mountains, rice fields, and more. In the SHI calculation, practical testing results and historical failure data were applied. The results clearly indicate that there were notable disparities in the age estimations for transmission lines in diverse geographical regions of Thailand when compared to their actual ages. These discrepancies can be attributed to various factors, including the local environment, such as rainfall, flooding, and salt-laden air as well as specific geographical features like mountainous and coastal terrain. To mitigate the deterioration of transmission lines in all regions, it is essential to implement a proactive maintenance strategy. This strategy should involve more frequent inspections, the use of advanced monitoring technologies, and the establishment of robust maintenance procedures, with which it would become possible to enhance the accuracy of equipment condition assessments, ultimately resulting in an overall improvement in the reliability of transmission lines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the middle and late stages of gas field development, the establishment of a fine reservoir lithological model is an important basis for drilling well pattern adjustment and potential exploitation. The SU 36-11 area of the Ordos basin in China is developing braided channel sediment with rich gas resources. However, the success rate of drilling wells is low due to the complex reservoir heterogeneity and the lack of a fine reservoir lithological model. In this paper, the complex internal structure of the reservoir sand body is revealed using the architectural element analysis method. Three sand body models, that is, isolated channel, superimposed channel, and cut superimposed channel, can be recognized. The effective sand body is mainly the channel bar deposit with a thickness of 2–5 m, a width of 200–500 m, a length of 400–700 m, a width ratio of 50–120, and a length-to-width ratio of 1.5–2. The 2D maps of the lithofacies (architectural elements) were then digitized to create 2D training images (TI) for the construction of the 3D model. The 2D data template was selected to scan the TI to obtain the 2D multi-point probability. The 3D multi-point probability was then generated using the probability fusion theory. The Monte Carlo sampling was used to predict the lithological type between wells. Finally, the 3D reservoir lithological model was built directly using the 2D lithological profiles. From the model, the geometry of the braided channel, channel bar, and flood plain was well revealed, and the spatial distribution of effective reservoir sand bodies was accurately predicted. The cross-validation test shows that the error of the channel bar is 6.5% on average, which improves the accuracy of the prediction of lithology in the sub-surface and can be used to guide the subsequent development of residual gas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The shift toward electric mobility in Germany is a major component of the German climate protection program. In this context, public charging is growing in importance, especially in high-density urban areas, which causes an additional load on the distribution grid. In order to evaluate this impact and prevent possible overloads, realistic models are required. Methods for implementing such models and their application in the context of grid load are research topics that are only minorly addressed in the literature. This paper aims to demonstrate the entire process chain from the selection of a modelling method to the implementation and application of the model within a case study. Applying a stochastic approach, charging points are modelled via probabilities to determine the start of charging, plug-in duration, and charged energy. Subsequently, load profiles are calculated, integrated into an energy system model and applied in order to analyze the effects of a high density of public charging points on the urban distribution grid. The case study highlights a possible application of the implemented probabilistic load profile model, but also reveals its limitations. The primary results of this paper are the identification and evaluation of relevant criteria for modelling the load profiles of public charging points as well as the demonstration of the model and its comparison to real charging processes. By publishing the determined probabilities and the model for calculating the charging load profiles, a comprehensive tool is provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a probabilistic power flow (PPF) method considering continuous and discrete variables (continuous and discrete power flow, CDPF) for power systems. The proposed method—based on the cumulant method (CM) and multiple deterministic power flow (MDPF) calculations—can deal with continuous variables such as wind power generation (WPG) and loads, and discrete variables such as fuel cell generation (FCG). In this paper, continuous variables follow a normal distribution (loads) or a non-normal distribution (WPG), and discrete variables follow a binomial distribution (FCG). Through testing on IEEE 14-bus and IEEE 118-bus power systems, the proposed method (CDPF) has better accuracy compared with the CM, and higher efficiency compared with the Monte Carlo simulation method (MCSM). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An estimation of the power battery state of charge (SOC) is related to the energy management, the battery cycle life and the use cost of electric vehicles. When a lithium-ion power battery is used in an electric vehicle, the SOC displays a very strong time-dependent nonlinearity under the influence of random factors, such as the working conditions and the environment. Hence, research on estimating the SOC of a power battery for an electric vehicle is of great theoretical significance and application value. In this paper, according to the dynamic response of the power battery terminal voltage during a discharging process, the second-order RC circuit is first used as the equivalent model of the power battery. Subsequently, on the basis of this model, the least squares method (LS) with a forgetting factor and the adaptive unscented Kalman filter (AUKF) algorithm are used jointly in the estimation of the power battery SOC. Simulation experiments show that the joint estimation algorithm proposed in this paper has higher precision and convergence of the initial value error than a single AUKF algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To optimally plan maintenance of wind turbine blades, knowledge of the degradation processes and the remaining useful life is essential. In this paper, a method is proposed for calibration of a Markov deterioration model based on past inspection data for a range of blades, and updating of the model for a specific wind turbine blade, whenever information is available from inspections and/or condition monitoring. Dynamic Bayesian networks are used to obtain probabilities of inspection outcomes for a maximum likelihood estimation of the transition probabilities in the Markov model, and are used again when updating the model for a specific blade using observations. The method is illustrated using indicative data from a database containing data from inspections of wind turbine blades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although traditional fault diagnosis methods can qualitatively identify the failure modes for power equipment, it is difficult to evaluate the failure probability quantitatively. In this paper, a failure probability calculation method for power equipment based on multi-characteristic parameters is proposed. After collecting the historical data of different fault characteristic parameters, the distribution functions and the cumulative distribution functions of each parameter, which are applied to dispersing the parameters and calculating the differential warning values, are calculated by using the two-parameter Weibull model. To calculate the membership functions of parameters for each failure mode, the Apriori algorithm is chosen to mine the association rules between parameters and failure modes. After that, the failure probability of each failure mode is obtained by integrating the membership functions of different parameters by a weighted method, and the important weight of each parameter is calculated by the differential warning values. According to the failure probability calculation result, the series model is established to estimate the failure probability of the equipment. Finally, an application example for two 220 kV transformers is presented to show the detailed process of the method. Compared with traditional fault diagnosis methods, the calculation results not only identify the failure modes correctly, but also reflect the failure probability changing trend of the equipment accurately. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessment of dynamic stability in a modern power system (PS) is becoming a stringent requirement both in operational planning and in on-line operation, due to the increasingly complex dynamics of a PS. Further, growing uncertainties in forecast state and in the response to disturbances suggests the adoption of risk-based approaches in Dynamic Security Assessment (DSA). The present paper describes a probabilistic risk-based DSA, which provides instability risk indicators by combining an innovative probabilistic hazard/vulnerability analysis with the assessment of contingency impacts via time domain simulation. The tool implementing the method can be applied to both current and forecast PS states, the latter characterized in terms of renewable and load forecast uncertainties, providing valuable results for operation and operational planning contexts. Some results from a real PS model are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to deal with the uncertainties of wind power, wind farm and electric vehicle (EV) battery switch station (BSS) were proposed to work together as an integrated system. In this paper, the collaborative scheduling problems of such a system were studied. Considering the features of the integrated system, three indices, which include battery swapping demand curtailment of BSS, wind curtailment of wind farm, and generation schedule tracking of the integrated system are proposed. In addition, a two-stage multi-objective collaborative scheduling model was designed. In the first stage, a day-ahead model was built based on the theory of dependent chance programming. With the aim of maximizing the realization probabilities of these three operating indices, random fluctuations of wind power and battery switch demand were taken into account simultaneously. In order to explore the capability of BSS as reserve, the readjustment process of the BSS within each hour was considered in this stage. In addition, the stored energy rather than the charging/discharging power of BSS during each period was optimized, which will provide basis for hour-ahead further correction of BSS. In the second stage, an hour-ahead model was established. In order to cope with the randomness of wind power and battery swapping demand, the proposed hour-ahead model utilized ultra-short term prediction of the wind power and the battery switch demand to schedule the charging/discharging power of BSS in a rolling manner. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed models was validated by case studies. The simulation results indicated that the proposed model could realize complement between wind farm and BSS, reduce the dependence on power grid, and facilitate the accommodation of wind power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Topology control is an effective method for improving the performance of wireless sensor networks (WSNs). Many topology control algorithms can achieve high energy efficiency by dynamically changing the transmission range of nodes. However, these algorithms prefer to choose short multihop communication links rather than the long directly communication links which also energy efficient probabilistic. Note that these fact, in this paper, we propose a mathematic model to explore the probability that the long directly communication links are more energy efficient than the short links. We investigate the properties of this probability and find out the optimal transmission range which has highest probability of energy efficient. Based on this conclusion, we propose the energy efficient and reliable topology control algorithm (ERTC) to maintain the r-range for the nodes instead of the k-connection; moreover, ERTC can achieve energy efficient and network connection at the same time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The improvement of the supercapacitor model redundancy is a significant method to guarantee the reliability of the power system in electric vehicle application. In order to enhance the accuracy of the supercapacitor model, eight conventional supercapacitor models were selected for parameter identification by genetic algorithm, and the model accuracies based on standard diving cycle are further discussed. Then, three fusion modeling approaches including Bayesian fusion, residual normalization fusion, and state of charge (SOC) fragment fusion are presented and compared. In order to further improve the accuracy of these models, a two-layer fusion model based on SOC fragments is proposed in this paper. Compared with other fusion models, the root mean square error (RMSE), maximum error, and mean error of the two-layer fusion model can be reduced by at least 23.04%, 8.70%, and 30.13%, respectively. Moreover, the two-layer fusion model is further verified at 10, 25, and 40 °C, and the RMSE can be correspondingly reduced by 60.41%, 47.26%, 23.04%. The results indicate that the two-layer fusion model proposed in this paper achieves better robustness and accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to determine the most cost effective alternative among hardening options of power systems, the direct monetary benefits should be evaluated above all other things. Therefore, this paper presents a life-cycle cost model which describes total monetary costs experienced in annual time increments during the project with consideration for the time value of money. In addition, to minimize the risks associated with estimated cost errors due to uncertainties of input data, the stochastic input data are considered. Using the Monte Carlo method, the probabilities and cost ranges in the case studies can be predicted, in turn resulting in better decisions in the selection of hardening options which are cost effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays offshore wind energy is the renewable energy source with the highest growth. Offshore wind farms are composed of large and complex wind turbines, requiring a high level of reliability, availability, maintainability and safety (RAMS). Firms are employing robust remote condition monitoring systems in order to improve RAMS, considering the difficulty to access the wind farm. The main objective of this research work is to optimise the maintenance management of wind farms through the fault probability of each wind turbine. The probability has been calculated by Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) employing the Binary Decision Diagram (BDD) in order to reduce the computational cost. The fault tree presented in this paper has been designed and validated based on qualitative data from the literature and expert from important European collaborative research projects. The basic events of the fault tree have been prioritized employing the criticality method in order to use resources efficiently. Exogenous variables, e.g., weather conditions, have been also considered in this research work. The results provided by the dynamic probability of failure and the importance measures have been employed to develop a scheduled maintenance that contributes to improve the decision making and, consequently, to reduce the maintenance costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the problem of gas turbine transient performance tracking in a cluttered environment. To increase the accuracy and robustness of state estimation, a data-fusion nonlinear estimation method based on an adaptive particle filter (PF) is proposed. This method needs local estimates transmitted to a central filtering unit for data fusion, and then global data feedback to the local PF for consensus propagation. The computational burden is shared by the local PF and central filtering unit in the data-fusion architecture. Furthermore, the PF algorithm used for the data fusion is embedded with the prior knowledge of engine health condition and adaptive to the measurement noise, and hence is called the adaptive PF. The heuristic information of state variables represented by inequality constraints tunes the local estimates by a probability density truncation method. The covariance of measurement noise is calculated by wavelet transform and utilized to update the particle importance function of the real time PF. The performance improvements of the proposed method are indicated through extensive experiments for gradual and abrupt shift performance tracking under conditions of gas turbine transient operation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes three probability models to assess the impact of communication delays and bit errors on differential protection. First, the mechanism of relay protection malfunction caused by communication delays and bit errors is introduced. In general, a channel's consistent delay or bit error results in refuse-operations, while a channel's inconsistent delay normally causes false trips. Based on the analysis of the probability distributions of communication delays and bit errors, probabilistic models of false trips and refuse-operations are proposed. Simulation results, using typical parameters, are implemented to investigate the effects of communications on the malfunction probability of differential protection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider a wireless sensor node that gathers energy through harvesting and reaps data through sensing. The node has a wireless transmitter that sends out a data packet whenever there is at least one "energy packet" and one "data packet", where an energy packet represents the amount of accumulated energy at the node that can allow the transmission of a data packet. We show that such a system is unstable when both the energy storage space and the data backlog buffer approach infinity, and we obtain the stable stationary solution when both buffers are finite. We then show that if a single energy packet is not sufficient to transmit a data packet, there are conditions under which the system is stable, and we provide the explicit expression for the joint probability distribution of the number of energy and data packets in the system. Since the two flows of energy and data can be viewed as flows that are instantaneously synchronised, this paper also provides a mathematical analysis of a fundamental problem in computer science related to the stability of the "join" synchronisation primitive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind energy has been widely used in renewable energy systems. A probabilistic prediction that can provide uncertainty information is the key to solving this problem. In this paper, a short-term direct probabilistic prediction model of wind power is proposed. First, the initial data set is preprocessed by a box plot and gray correlation analysis. Then, a generalized method is proposed to calculate the natural gradient and the improved natural gradient boosting (NGBoost) model is proposed based on this method. Finally, blending fusion is used in order to enhance the learning effect of improved NGBoost. The model is validated with the help of measured data from Dalian Tuoshan wind farm in China. The results show that under the specified confidence, compared with the single NGBoost metamodel and other short-term direct probability prediction models, the model proposed in this paper can reduce the forecast area coverage probability while ensuring a higher average width of prediction intervals, and can be used to build new efficient and intelligent energy power systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Understanding the market competition is one of the most important factors for examining and assessing competition issues, and is of growing interest in business sustainability research. Markets in the energy industry, which are notoriously harder to monitor, are often presented with scenarios in which the strength of various market parties varies, making harmonization a significant problem. This article's aim is to find the feasibility of measuring the HHI in the implementation of business strategies in order to avoid market distortions in the energy industry. The uniqueness of this article is that it outlines the capabilities of the fuzzy VIKOR approach for assessing the HHI in order to avoid a distorted market by examining the most important economic parameters in the energy market. This paper's contribution is compiling the HHI evaluation system in the energy sector, with the goal of identifying the market conditions of corporate entity and assisting in the attainment of long-term market competitiveness. The results demonstrate that a comparison of the fuzzy VIKOR (VlseKriterijuska Optimizacija I Komoromisno Resenje) approach with probability theories proved that it is possible to measure the HHI-based performance of the energy sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents an optimized off-grid photovoltaic (PV)-wind battery model that considers the value of loss of load probability (LOLP). The optimum combination of all model components: wind turbines, PV panels, batteries and electrical load for the City of Osijek using MATLAB software is defined. The examined data are based on measured load values for the residential home. For values of LOLP in the range from 0.00 to 0.10 in steps of 0.01, optimal size of the presented system has been determined. In order to determine the optimal model, investment costs were taken into account in comparison with various LOLP values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the penetration of renewable generation, electric vehicles and other random factors in power systems, the stochastic disturbances are increasing significantly, which are necessary to be handled for guarantying the security of systems. A novel stochastic optimal control strategy is proposed in this paper to reduce the impact of such stochastic continuous disturbances on power systems. The proposed method is effective in solving the problems caused by the stochastic continuous disturbances and has two significant advantages. First, a simplified and effective solution is proposed to analyze the system influenced by the stochastic disturbances. Second, a novel optimal control strategy is proposed in this paper to effectively reduce the impact of stochastic continuous disturbances. To be specific, a novel excitation controlled power systems model with stochastic disturbances is built in the quasi-generalized Hamiltonian form, which is further simplified into a lower-dimension model through the stochastic averaging method. Based on this Itô equation, a novel optimal control strategy to achieve the intra-region probability maximization is established for power systems by using the dynamic programming method. Finally, the intra-region probability increases in controlled systems, which confirms the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy. The proposed control method has advantages on controlling the fluctuation of system state variables within a desired region under the influence of stochastic disturbances, which means improving the security of stochastic systems. With more stochasticity in the future, the proposed control method based on the stochastic theory will play a novel way to relieve the impact of stochastic disturbances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solar power's variability makes managing power system planning and operation difficult. Facilitating a high level of integration of solar power resources into a grid requires maintaining the fundamental power system so that it is stable when interconnected. Accurate and reliable forecasting helps to maintain the system safely given large-scale solar power resources; this paper therefore proposes a probabilistic forecasting approach to solar resources using the R statistics program, applying a hybrid model that considers spatio-temporal peculiarities. Information on how the weather varies at sites of interest is often unavailable, so we use a spatial modeling procedure called kriging to estimate precise data at the solar power plants. The kriging method implements interpolation with geographical property data. In this paper, we perform day-ahead forecasts of solar power based on the probability in one-hour intervals by using a Naïve Bayes Classifier model, which is a classification algorithm. We augment forecasting by taking into account the overall data distribution and applying the Gaussian probability distribution. To validate the proposed hybrid forecasting model, we perform a comparison of the proposed model with a persistence model using the normalized mean absolute error (NMAE). Furthermore, we use empirical data from South Korea's meteorological towers (MET) to interpolate weather variables at points of interest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a theoretical analysis of mobility detection in connectivity-based localization, which exploits connectivity information as range measurements to anchors at a known location, to investigate how well and how precise mobility can be detected with connectivity in short-range networks. We derive mobility detection, miss detection, and false alarm probabilities in terms of a mobility detection threshold, defined as the minimum distance to detect the mobility, under the shadow fading channel and arbitrary mobility models to take into account practical and general scenarios. Based on the derivations, we address the threshold determination with the criteria in the sense of the minimum average error from miss detection and false alarm. Numerical and simulation evaluations are performed to verify our theoretical derivations, to show that increasing anchor numbers can improve the mobility detection probability with a smaller detection threshold, and that the probabilities are bounded by the weights of miss detection and false alarm. This work is the first attempt at addressing the performance of mobility detection using connectivity, and it can be utilized as a baseline for connectivity-based mobility tracking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The electrical system of a wind farm has a significant influence on the wind farm reliability and electrical energy yield. The disconnect switch installed in an electrical system cannot only improve the operating flexibility, but also enhance the reliability for a wind farm. Therefore, this paper develops a probabilistic transfer technique for integrating the electrical topology structure, the isolation operation of disconnect switch, and stochastic failure of electrical equipment into the reliability assessment of wind farm electrical system. Firstly, as the traditional two-state reliability model of electrical equipment cannot consider the isolation operation, so the paper develops a three-state reliability model to replace the two-state model for incorporating the isolation operation. In addition, a proportion apportion technique is presented to evaluate the state probability. Secondly, this paper develops a probabilistic transfer technique based on the thoughts that through transfer the unreliability of electrical system to the energy transmission interruption of wind turbine generators (WTGs). Finally, some novel indices for describing the reliability of wind farm electrical system are designed, and the variance coefficient of the designed indices is used as a convergence criterion to determine the termination of the assessment process. The proposed technique is applied to the reliability assessment of a wind farm with the different topologies. The simulation results show that the proposed techniques are effective in practical applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Digital flicker detection devices need to store a large amount of evaluation data during measurement process, which leads to high requirements for hardware resources and algorithm execution efficiency. In this paper, a digital flicker detection method based on probability resampling is studied. In particular, before statistical evaluation, probability resampling is applied to screen the instantaneous flicker visual sensitivity data to compress redundant data. Additionally, the effectiveness of the method was numerically simulated and experimentally tested. The results show that the proposed method can accurately measure the voltage flicker value and can effectively compress the redundant evaluation data to be evaluated and has significant advantages in releasing hardware storage space, in improving algorithm execution efficiency and real-time performance, and in reducing processor workload. This method provides an engineering application reference for designing digital flicker detectors, especially for the software upgrade of traditional power quality testing equipment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oceans contain rich tidal current energy, which can provide sufficient power for offshore microgrids. However, the uncertainty of tidal flow may endanger the operational reliability of an offshore microgrid. In this paper, a probabilistic prediction model of tidal current is established based on support vector quantile regression to reduce the influence of uncertainty. Firstly, the penalty factors and kernel parameters of the proposed prediction model was optimized by the dragonfly algorithm to predict the tidal speed of any time of a day in different quantiles. Secondly, combining the above result with the kernel density to predict the probability density function of the tidal current speed, which is to improve the accuracy of prediction in the absence of information. Thirdly, an optimal generation dispatching strategy with tidal current generators is proposed to minimize the fuel consumption of offshore microgrids. Finally, a case study based on the offshore oil and gas platform in Bohai shows that the mean absolute percent error of the proposed model is 2.8142%, which is better than support vector quantile regression model and support vector regression model optimized by the genetic algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the typhoon disaster, the power grid often has serious accidents caused by falling power towers and breaking lines. It is of great significance to analyze and predict the damage probability of a transmission line-tower system for disaster prevention and reduction. However, some problems existing in current models, such as complicated calculation, few factors, and so on, affect the accuracy of the prediction. Therefore, a damage probability assessment method of a transmission line-tower system under a typhoon disaster is proposed. Firstly, considering the actual wind load and the design wind load, physical models for calculating the damage probability of the transmission line and power tower are established, respectively based on model-driven thought. Then, the damage probability of the transmission line-tower system is obtained, combining the transmission line and power tower damage probability. Secondly, in order to improve prediction accuracy, this paper analyzes the historical sample data containing multiple influencing factors, such as geographic information, meteorological information, and power grid information, and then obtains the correction coefficient based on data-driven thought. Thirdly, the comprehensive damage probability of the transmission line-tower system is calculated considering the results of model-driven and data-driven thought. Ultimately, the proposed method is verified to be effective, taking typhoon 'Mangkhut' in 2018 as a case study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the uncertainty of formation properties and improper wellbore stability analysis methods, the input parameters are often uncertain and the required mud weight to prevent wellbore collapse is too large, which might cause an incorrect result. However, the uncertainty evaluation of input parameters and their influence on safe mud weight window (SMWW) is seldom investigated. Therefore, the present paper aims to propose an uncertain evaluation method to evaluate the uncertainty of SMWW. The reliability assessment theory was introduced, and the uncertain SMWW model was proposed by involving the tolerable breakout, the Mogi-Coulomb (MG-C) criterion and the reliability assessment theory. The influence of uncertain parameters on wellbore collapse, wellbore fracture and SMWW were systematically simulated and investigated by utilizing Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the field observation of well SC-101X was reported and discussed. The results indicated that the MG-C criterion and tolerable breakout is recommended for wellbore stability analysis. The higher the coefficient of variance is, the higher the level of uncertainty is, the larger the impact on SMWW will be, and the higher the risk of well kick, wellbore collapse and fracture will be. The uncertainty of basic parameters has a very significant impact on SMWW, and it cannot be ignored. For well SC-101X, the SMWW predicted by analytical solution is 0.9921–1.6020 g/cm3, compared to the SMWW estimated by the reliability assessment method, the reliability assessment method tends to give a very narrow SMWW of 1.0756–1.0935 g/cm3 and its probability is only 80%, and the field observation for well kick and wellbore fracture verified the analysis results. For narrow SMWW formation drilling, some kinds of advanced technology, such as the underbalanced drilling (UBD), managed pressure drilling (MPD), micro-flow drilling (MFD) and wider the SMWW, can be utilized to maintain drilling safety. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To detect the categories and positions of various transformer components in inspection images automatically, this paper proposes a transformer component detection model with high detection accuracy, based on the structure of Faster R-CNN. In consideration of the significant difference in component sizes, double feature maps are used to adapt to the size change, by adjusting two weights dynamically according to the object size. Moreover, different from the detection of ordinary objects, there is abundant useful information contained in the relative positions between components. Thus, the relative position features are defined and introduced to the refinement of the detection results. Then, the training process and detection process are proposed specifically for the improved model. Finally, an experiment is given to compare the accuracy and efficiency of the improved model and the original Faster R-CNN, along with other object detection models. Results show that the improved model has an obvious advantage in accuracy, and the efficiency is significantly higher than that of manual detection, which suggests that the model is suitable for practical engineering applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A micro hydropower plant of the run-of-river type is considered to be the most cost-effective investment in developing counties. This paper presents a novel methodology to improve flow estimation, without using the flow direction curve (FDC) method, to determine the turbine type and size to operate consistently. A higher precision is obtained through the use of seasonal flow occurrence data, irrigation variability, and fitting the best probability distribution function (PDF) using flow data. Flow data are grouped in classes based on the flow rate range. This method will need a larger dataset but it is reduced to a tractable amount by using the PDF. In the first part of the algorithm, the average flow of each range is used to select the turbine type. The second part of the algorithm determines the optimal size of the turbine type in a more accurate way, based on minimum and maximum flow rates in each class range instead of the average flow rate. A newly developed micro hydropower plant was installed and used for validation at Baan Khun Pae, Chiang Mai Province. It was found, over four years of observation from 2014–2018, that the plant capacity factor was 82%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The growing amount of distributed generation has brought great uncertainty to power grids. Traditional probabilistic load flow (PLF) algorithms, such as the Monte-Carlo method (MCM), can no longer meet the needs of efficiency and accuracy in large-scale power grids. Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) develops a sampling efficiency and solves the correlation problem of distributed generation (DG) access nodes for accuracy analyses. In this paper, a modified Latin Hypercube-Important Sampling method is proposed for higher efficiency and precision by using the importance sampling method before LHS and the Cholesky decomposition method in correlation calculations. The simulation results are presented using a modified IEEE 30-bus system and are compared with traditional MCM and LHS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Controlled islanding has been proposed as a last resort action to stop blackouts from happening when all standard methods have failed. Successful controlled islanding has to deal with three important issues: when, and where to island, and the evaluation of the dynamic stability in each island after islanding. This paper provides a framework for preventing wide-area blackouts using wide area measurement systems (WAMS), which consists of three stages to execute a successful islanding strategy. Normally, power system collapses and blackouts occur shortly after a cascading outage stage. Using such circumstances, an adapted single machine equivalent (SIME) method was used online to determine transient stability before blackout was imminent, and was then employed to determine when to island based on transient instability. In addition, SIME was adopted to assess the dynamic stability in each island after islanding, and to confirm that the chosen candidate island cutsets were stable before controlled islanding was undertaken. To decide where to island, all possible islanding cutsets were provided using the power flow (PF) tracing method. SIME helped to find the best candidate islanding cutset with the minimal PF imbalance, which is also a transiently stable islanding strategy. In case no possible island cutset existed, corresponding corrective actions such as load shedding and critical generator tripping, were performed in each formed island. Finally, an IEEE 39-bus power system with 10 units was employed to test this framework for a three-stage controlled islanding strategy to prevent imminent blackouts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a new geographic information systems (GIS)-based algorithm is proposed for supporting the initial design of a wireless communications system in open-pit mines. In this algorithm, multiple candidate transmitter (wireless access point) locations are selected considering the probability of further development and environmental factors in the mine. Then, a three-dimensional (3D) partial Fresnel zone between the transmitter and the receiver is defined and its 3D Fresnel index calculated by communication viewshed analysis of topographic data. The initial design for a transmitter layout is then determined based on the 3D Fresnel indices, which are calculated for all candidate transmitter locations. The proposed algorithm was applied to an open-pit mine located in Samcheok-si, Gangwon-do, South Korea. The 3D Fresnel indices were calculated for 15 candidate transmitter locations, and an initial transmitter layout then designed considering favorable combinations of two, three, and four transmitters. The proposed algorithm provided more precise Fresnel index overlay maps for the favorable transmitter candidate combinations than other algorithms based on line-of-sight and two-dimensional partial Fresnel zone analyses. Application of the algorithm to an open-pit mine where a wireless communications system is already installed revealed that the initial transmitter layout design is acceptable in terms of providing reasonable information on the coverage area of transmitters. Because the proposed algorithm provides an initial transmitter layout that can be modified after field investigations, it can support efficient design of wireless communications systems for use in open-pit mines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fuzzy theory is proposed as an alternative to the probabilistic approach for assessing portfolios of power plants, in order to capture the complex reality of decision-making processes. This paper presents different fuzzy portfolio selection models, where the rate of returns as well as the investor's aspiration levels of portfolio return and risk are regarded as fuzzy variables. Furthermore, portfolio risk is defined as a downside risk, which is why a semi-mean-absolute deviation portfolio selection model is introduced. Finally, as an illustration, the models presented are applied to a selection of power generation mixes. The efficient portfolio results show that the fuzzy portfolio selection models with different definitions of membership functions as well as the semi-mean-absolute deviation model perform better than the standard mean-variance approach. Moreover, introducing membership functions for the description of investors' aspiration levels for the expected return and risk shows how the knowledge of experts, and investors' subjective opinions, can be better integrated in the decision-making process than with probabilistic approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we consider partial path selection (PPS) for a multi-hop decode-and-forward cooperative system with limited channel state information (CSI) feedback, where the PPS utilizes local CSI only for a subset of hops on each of all independent paths between a source and a destination to reduce the energy consumption for CSI feedback. To enhance the end-to-end performance of the PPS, we propose a novel PPS method with local CSI chosen by the correlation between the end-to-end signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) based on global and local CSI under Nakagami-m fading channels. For each path, we pick a subset of hops to report CSI with the highest correlation for a given CSI feedback overhead requirement, which can achieve the similar end-to-end outage probability to the best path selection with global CSI. We provide an exact and closed-form expression for the SNR correlation coefficient and present an impact of the SNR correlation on the end-to-end outage probability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper evaluates the potential of diverse wind power patterns to balance the global power output of wind farms using the concept of operating reserve assessment. To achieve this, operating reserve assessment models are utilized to evaluate bulk generation systems under several conditions of wind power geographic distribution. Different wind behavior patterns and wind power penetration levels are tested using a modified configuration of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Reliability Test System 96 (IEEE RTS-96). The results highlight that on a large country scale system with different wind characteristics, the diversification of wind behavior might be conducive to a compensation of wind power fluctuations, which may significantly decrease the need for system operating reserves. This effect is verified using probability distribution functions of reserve needs estimated by sequential Monte Carlo simulations (SMCS), such that useful information regarding generation capacity flexibility is drawn from the evaluations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of the distribution system operator (DSO) is evolving with the increasing possibilities of demand management and flexibility. Rather than implementing conventional approaches to mitigate network congestions, such as upgrading existing assets, demand flexibility services have been gaining much attention lately as a solution to defer the need for network reinforcements. In this paper, a framework for a decentralized local market that enables flexibility services trading at the distribution level is introduced. This market operates on two timeframes, day-ahead and real-time and it allows the DSO to procure flexibility services which can help in its congestion management process. The contribution of this work lies in considering the uncertainty of demand during the day-ahead period. As a result, we introduce a probabilistic process that supports the DSO in assessing the true need of obtaining flexibility services based on the probability of congestion occurrence in the following day of operation. Besides being able to procure firm flexibility for high probable congestions, a new option is introduced, called the right-to-use option, which enables the DSO to reserve a specific amount of flexibility, to be called upon later if necessary, for congestions that have medium probabilities of taking place. In addition, a real-time market for flexibility trading is presented, which allows the DSO to procure flexibility services for unforeseen congestions with short notice. Also, the effect of the penetration level of flexibility on the DSO’s total cost is discussed and assessed. Finally, a case study is carried out for a real distribution network feeder in Spain to illustrate the impact of the proposed flexibility framework on the DSO’s congestion management process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The application of reliability sensitivity analysis (RSA) to the high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission systems is one of the hot topics in the future. A regional RSA method, the contribution to failure probability (CFP) plot, is investigated in this paper. This CFP plot contains both aleatory and epistemic uncertain variables modeled as random variables by probability theory and interval variables by evidence theory, respectively. A surrogate model of second-level limit state function needs to be established for each joint focal element (JFE), which is a time-consuming process. Additionally, an excessive number of Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) and optimizations may exceed the computing power of modern computers. In order to deal with the above problems and further decrease the computational cost, a more effective CFP calculation method under the framework of random-evidence hybrid reliability analysis is proposed. Three important improvements in the proposed method make the calculation of CFP more efficient and easy to implement. Firstly, an active learning kriging (ALK) based on the symbol prediction idea is employed to directly establish a surrogate model rather than a second-level limit state function with fewer function calls, which greatly simplifies construction of the model. Secondly, a random set-based Monte Carlo simulation (RS-MCS) is used to handle the issue of oversized optimization caused by too many JFEs. Thirdly, for further reducing the size of optimizations and improving the efficiency of the CFP calculation, a Karush-Kuhn-Tucker-based optimization (KKTO) method is recommended in the proposed method to solve the extreme value of performance function. A numerical example and an engineering example were studied to verify the accuracy, effectiveness and practicality of the proposed method. It can be seen from the results that regardless of whether it is modeling or computational efficiency, the proposed method is better than the original method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Micro phasor measurement units (μPMU) installed in active distribution networks are very useful for improving observability by acquiring system real-time data. However, three-phase imbalance and harmonic power flows adversely impact the accuracy of synchronous measurements, which implies the importance of phasor estimation errors. This paper proposes a new phasor estimation algorithm for μPMU in active distribution networks that uses a conditional maximum likelihood (CML) estimation method. Firstly, the signal model of three-phase, three-wire and four-wire imbalance systems is established. Then, the probability distributions of the magnitude and phase angles are derived from the geometric characteristics of the CML method by solving the geometric equation. Simulation results show that the proposed CML based method is effective for estimating phasor and impedance models of active distribution networks by using μPMU measurement data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The growing diffusion of electric vehicles connected to distribution networks for charging purposes is an ongoing problem that utilities must deal with. Direct current networks and storage devices have emerged as a feasible means of satisfying the expected increases in the numbers of vehicles while preserving the effective operation of the network. In this paper, an innovative probabilistic methodology is proposed for the optimal sizing of electrical storage devices with the aim of maximizing the penetration of plug-in electric vehicles while preserving efficient and effective operation of the network. The proposed methodology is based on an analytical solution of the problem concerning the power losses minimization in distribution networks equipped with storage devices. The closed-form expression that was obtained is included in a Monte Carlo simulation procedure aimed at handling the uncertainties in loads and renewable generation units. The results of several numerical applications are reported and discussed to demonstrate the validity of the proposed solution. Also, different penetration levels of generation units were analyzed in order to focus on the importance of renewable generation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]