Search

With the rapid development of China's economy, China has become the world's largest carbon emitter. China not only has an obvious growth rate of industrial carbon emissions but also the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions is hovering at a high level. The development of China's agricultural economy has largely come at the expense of high emissions. Currently, under the background of global warming and difficulty in controlling greenhouse gas emissions, the development of low-carbon agriculture is an important way to realize the harmonious development of the ecological environment and economic growth and to promote the sustainable development of agriculture. The agricultural production efficiency is the main factor affecting the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions. Based on provincial panel data of China from 2010 to 2019, this paper establishes an indicator system and uses the super-efficiency SBM model to measure agricultural production efficiency. The regional agricultural carbon emissions were estimated using carbon-emission-related agricultural production activities. In order to study the nonlinear relationship between agricultural production efficiency and agricultural carbon emission intensity in the narrow sense, this paper uses a threshold regression model with agricultural carbon emissions as the threshold variable. Based on the analysis of China's agricultural production efficiency and agricultural carbon emissions from 2010 to 2019, an empirical test is conducted through a threshold regression model. The results show an "inverted U-shaped" relationship between agricultural production efficiency and agricultural carbon emission intensity. In areas with high agricultural production efficiency, the improvement of production efficiency can suppress the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions; in areas with low agricultural production efficiency, the improvement of production efficiency increases the intensity of agricultural carbon emissions. Finally, based on the research conclusions, this paper provides feasible suggestions and countermeasures for China's agricultural carbon emission reduction and improvement of agricultural production efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, the global climate is warming. As the world's biggest emitter of carbon emissions, China faces a more severe challenge in reducing carbon emissions than developed countries. A reasonable prediction of the carbon peak in China will help the government to formulate effective emission reduction paths. This paper analyzes the changes in carbon emissions in China from 2004 to 2020, uses the STIRPAT model and scenario analysis method to predict carbon emissions from 2021 to 2030, and then calculates the carbon efficiency during carbon peaking to select the most effective carbon peak path for China. The results show that China's carbon emissions increased year by year from 2004 to 2020. Under the baseline scenario, China is unlikely to reach its carbon peak before 2030. Under the regulatory scenarios, China can reach its carbon peak before 2030. The peak values from high to low are seen with the rapid development-weak carbon control scenario, rapid development-intensified carbon control scenario, slow development-weak carbon control scenario and slow development-intensified carbon control scenario, respectively. Correspondingly, China will peak its carbon emissions in 2029, 2028, 2028 and 2028, respectively, according to these scenarios. The carbon efficiency under the rapid development-weak carbon control scenario is the highest, which means that accelerating the growth rate of population, GDP and urbanization while moderately carrying out the transformation of industrial structure and energy structure is an effective way to achieve the goal of "carbon peak by 2030". [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the top emitter of carbon dioxide worldwide, China faces a considerable challenge in reducing carbon emissions to combat global warming. Carbon emissions from coal consumption is the primary source of carbon dioxide emissions in China. The decomposition of the driving factors and the quantification of regions and industries needs further research. Thus, this paper decomposed five driving factors affecting carbon emissions from coal consumption in China, namely, carbon emission intensity, energy structure, energy intensity, economic output, and population scale, by constructing a Kaya-Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (Kaya-LMDI) decomposition model with data on coal consumption in China from 1997 to 2019. It was revealed that the economic output and energy intensity effects are major drivers and inhibitors of carbon emissions from coal consumption in China, respectively. The contribution and impact of these driving factors on carbon emissions from coal consumption were analyzed for different regions and industrial sectors. The results showed that carbon emissions from coal consumption increased by 3211.92 million tons from 1997 to 2019. From a regional perspective, Hebei Province has the most significant impact on carbon emissions from coal consumption due to the effect of economic output. Additionally, the industrial sector had the most pronounced influence on carbon emissions from coal consumption due to the economic output effect. Finally, a series of measures to reduce carbon emissions including controlling the total coal consumption, improving the utilization rate of clean energy, and optimizing the energy structure is proposed based on China's actual development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]