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In this paper, a systematic literature review is presented, through a survey of the main digital databases, regarding modelling methods for Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) for hourly electricity demand for residential electricity and to realize the performance evolution and impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in STLF. With these specific objectives, a conceptual framework on the subject was developed, along with a systematic review of the literature based on scientific publications with high impact and a bibliometric study directed towards the scientific production of AI and STLF. The review of research articles over a 10-year period, which took place between 2012 and 2022, used the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) method. This research resulted in more than 300 articles, available in four databases: Web of Science, IEEE Xplore, Scopus, and Science Direct. The research was organized around three central themes, which were defined through the following keywords: STLF, Electricity, and Residential, along with their corresponding synonyms. In total, 334 research articles were analyzed, and the year of publication, journal, author, geography by continent and country, and the area of application were identified. Of the 335 documents found in the initial research and after applying the inclusion/exclusion criteria, which allowed delimiting the subject addressed in the topics of interest for analysis, 38 (thirty-eight) documents were in English (26 journal articles and 12 conference papers). The results point to a diversity of modelling techniques and associated algorithms. The corresponding performance was measured with different metrics and, therefore, cannot be compared directly. Hence, it is desirable to have a unified dataset, together with a set of benchmarks with well-defined metrics for a clear comparison of all the modelling techniques and the corresponding algorithms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The forecasting of charging demand for electric vehicles (EVs) plays a vital role in maintaining grid stability and optimizing energy distribution. Therefore, an innovative method for the prediction of EV charging load demand is proposed in this study to address the downside of the existing techniques in capturing the spatial–temporal heterogeneity of electric vehicle (EV) charging loads and predicting the charging demand of electric vehicles. Additionally, an innovative method of electric vehicle charging load demand forecasting is proposed, which is based on the weighted measurement fusion unscented Kalman filter (UKF) algorithm, to improve the accuracy and efficiency of forecasting. First, the data collected from OpenStreetMap and Amap are used to analyze the distribution of urban point-of-interest (POI), to accurately classify the functional areas of the city, and to determine the distribution of the urban road network, laying a foundation for modeling. Second, the travel chain theory was applied to thoroughly analyze the travel characteristics of EV users. The Improved Floyd (IFloyd) algorithm is used to determine the optimal route. Also, a Monte Carlo simulation is performed to estimate the charging load for electric vehicle users in a specific region. Then, a weighted measurement fusion UKF (WMF–UKF) state estimator is introduced to enhance the accuracy of prediction, which effectively integrates multi-source data and enables a more detailed prediction of the spatial–temporal distribution of load demand. Finally, the proposed method is validated comparatively against traffic survey data and the existing methods by conducting a simulation experiment in an urban area. The results show that the method proposed in this paper is applicable to predict the peak hours more accurately compared to the reference method, with the accuracy of first peak prediction improved by 53.53% and that of second peak prediction improved by 23.23%. The results not only demonstrate the high performance of the WMF–UKF prediction model in forecasting peak periods but also underscore its potential in supporting grid operations and management, which provides a new solution to improving the accuracy of EV load demand forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate and reliable PV power probabilistic-forecasting results can help grid operators and market participants better understand and cope with PV energy volatility and uncertainty and improve the efficiency of energy dispatch and operation, which plays an important role in application scenarios such as power market trading, risk management, and grid scheduling. In this paper, an innovative deep learning quantile regression ultra-short-term PV power-forecasting method is proposed. This method employs a two-branch deep learning architecture to forecast the conditional quantile of PV power; one branch is a QR-based stacked conventional convolutional neural network (QR_CNN), and the other is a QR-based temporal convolutional network (QR_TCN). The stacked CNN is used to focus on learning short-term local dependencies in PV power sequences, and the TCN is used to learn long-term temporal constraints between multi-feature data. These two branches extract different features from input data with different prior knowledge. By jointly training the two branches, the model is able to learn the probability distribution of PV power and obtain discrete conditional quantile forecasts of PV power in the ultra-short term. Then, based on these conditional quantile forecasts, a kernel density estimation method is used to estimate the PV power probability density function. The proposed method innovatively employs two ways of a priori knowledge injection: constructing a differential sequence of historical power as an input feature to provide more information about the ultrashort-term dynamics of the PV power and, at the same time, dividing it, together with all the other features, into two sets of inputs that contain different a priori features according to the demand of the forecasting task; and the dual-branching model architecture is designed to deeply match the data of the two sets of input features to the corresponding branching model computational mechanisms. The two a priori knowledge injection methods provide more effective features for the model and improve the forecasting performance and understandability of the model. The performance of the proposed model in point forecasting, interval forecasting, and probabilistic forecasting is comprehensively evaluated through the case of a real PV plant. The experimental results show that the proposed model performs well on the task of ultra-short-term PV power probabilistic forecasting and outperforms other state-of-the-art deep learning models in the field combined with QR. The proposed method in this paper can provide technical support for application scenarios such as energy scheduling, market trading, and risk management on the ultra-short-term time scale of the power system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The layout and configuration of urban infrastructure are essential for the orderly operation and healthy development of cities. With the promotion and popularization of new energy vehicles, the modeling and prediction of charging pile usage and allocation have garnered significant attention from governments and enterprises. Short-term demand forecasting for charging piles is crucial for their efficient operation. However, existing prediction models lack a discussion on the appropriate time window, resulting in limitations in station-level predictions. Recognizing the temporal nature of charging pile occupancy, this paper proposes a novel stacked-LSTM model called attention-SLSTM that integrates an attention mechanism to predict the charging demand of electric vehicles at the station level over the next few hours. To evaluate its performance, this paper compares it with several methods. The experimental results demonstrate that the attention-SLSTM model outperforms both LSTM and stacked-LSTM models. Deep learning methods generally outperform traditional time series forecasting methods. In the test set, MAE is 1.6860, RMSE is 2.5040, and MAPE is 9.7680%. Compared to the stacked-LSTM model, MAE and RMSE are reduced by 4.7%and 5%, respectively; while MAPE value decreases by 1.3%, making it superior to LSTM overall. Furthermore, subsequent experiments compare prediction performance among different charging stations, which confirms that the attention-SLSTM model exhibits excellent predictive capabilities within a six-step (2 h) window. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The growing success of smart grids (SGs) is driving increased interest in load forecasting (LF) as accurate predictions of energy demand are crucial for ensuring the reliability, stability, and efficiency of SGs. LF techniques aid SGs in making decisions related to power operation and planning upgrades, and can help provide efficient and reliable power services at fair prices. Advances in artificial intelligence (AI), specifically in machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL), have also played a significant role in improving the precision of demand forecasting. It is important to evaluate different LF techniques to identify the most accurate and appropriate one for use in SGs. This paper conducts a systematic review of state-of-the-art forecasting techniques, including traditional techniques, clustering-based techniques, AI-based techniques, and time series-based techniques, and provides an analysis of their performance and results. The aim of this paper is to determine which LF technique is most suitable for specific applications in SGs. The findings indicate that AI-based LF techniques, using ML and neural network (NN) models, have shown the best forecast performance compared to other methods, achieving higher overall root mean squared (RMS) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the global objectives of achieving a "carbon peak" and "carbon neutrality" along with the implementation of carbon reduction policies, China's industrial structure has undergone significant adjustments, resulting in constraints on high-energy consumption and high-emission industries while promoting the rapid growth of green industries. Consequently, these changes have led to an increasingly complex power system structure and presented new challenges for electricity demand forecasting. To address this issue, this study proposes a 24-step multivariate time series short-term load forecasting algorithm model based on KNN data imputation and BiTCN bidirectional temporal convolutional networks combined with BiGRU bidirectional gated recurrent units and attention mechanism. The Kepler adaptive optimization algorithm (KOA) is employed for hyperparameter optimization to effectively enhance prediction accuracy. Furthermore, using real load data from a wind farm in Xinjiang as an example, this paper predicts the electricity load from 1 January to 30 December in 2019. Experimental results demonstrate that our comprehensive short-term load forecasting model exhibits lower prediction errors and superior performance compared to traditional methods, thus holding great value for practical applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the influence of specific time series attributes on the efficacy of fuel demand forecasting. By utilising autoregressive models and Markov chains, the research aims to determine the impact of these attributes on the effectiveness of specific models. The study also proposes modifications to these models to enhance their performance in the context of the fuel industry's unique fuel distribution. The research involves a comprehensive analysis, including identifying the impact of volatility, seasonality, trends, and sudden shocks within time series data on the suitability and accuracy of forecasting methods. The paper utilises ARIMA, SARIMA, and Markov chain models to assess their ability to integrate diverse time series features, improve forecast precision, and facilitate strategic logistical planning. The findings suggest that recognising and leveraging these time series characteristics can significantly enhance the management of fuel supplies, leading to reduced operational costs and environmental impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Malaysia's energy intensity (GWh/GDP) shows an increasing trend since the 1990s, leading to the government's efforts to promote energy efficiency via policies such as the National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (NEEAP), which includes the Energy Performance Contracting (EPC) initiative. This paper reviews recent publications in industrial Combined Heat and Power (CHP) with a focus on international case studies relevant to Malaysian industries that use industrial steam and highlights trends within the research area. It also provides the basis for more case studies to be performed in the Malaysian industry to improve energy efficiency while also supporting further academic research in the area. Additionally, the paper documents the importance of data collection and analysis as well as demand forecasting, not only for a better understanding of industrial energy systems but also to increase profitability since system loads may vary throughout a typical year. A multi-criteria and comprehensive approach is recommended in future case studies to ensure energy efficiency, economic returns and environmental impact are considered to ensure long-term sustainability. A summary of barriers to CHP implementation in the industry is also included to provide a broad understanding of industrial CHP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China aims to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and achieve peak carbon and carbon neutrality goals. Natural gas, as a high-quality fossil fuel energy, is an important transition resource for China in the process of carbon reduction, so it is necessary to predict China's natural gas demand. In this paper, a novel natural gas demand combination forecasting model is constructed to accurately predict the future natural gas demand. The Lasso model and the polynomial model are used to build a combinatorial model, which overcomes the shortcomings of traditional models, which have low data dimensions and poor prediction abilities. In the modeling process, the cross-validation method is used to adjust the modeling parameters. By comparing the performance of the combinatorial forecasting model, the single forecasting model and other commonly used forecasting models, the results show that the error (2.99%) of the combinatorial forecasting model is the smallest, which verifies the high accuracy and good stability advantages of the combinatorial forecasting model. Finally, the paper analyzes the relevant data from 1999 to 2022 and predicts China's natural gas demand in the next 10 years. The results show that the annual growth rate of China's natural gas demand in the next 10 years will reach 13.33%, at 8.3 × 1011 m3 in 2033, which proves that China urgently needs to rapidly develop the gas supply capacity of gas supply enterprises. This study integrates the impact of multiple factors on the natural gas demand, predicts China's natural gas demand from 2023 to 2033, and provides decision-making support for China's energy structure adjustment and natural gas import trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Load forecasting is a research hotspot in academia; in the context of new power systems, the prediction and determination of load reserve capacity is also important. In order to adapt to new forms of power systems, a day-ahead automatic generation control (AGC) reserve capacity demand prediction method based on the Fourier transform and the attention mechanism combined with a bidirectional long and short-term memory neural network model (Attention-BiLSTM) optimized by an improved whale optimization algorithm (IWOA) is proposed. Firstly, based on the response time, Fourier transform is used to refine the distinction between various types of load reserve demand, and the power of the AGC reserve band is calculated using Parseval's theorem to obtain the reserve capacity demand sequence. The maximum mutual information coefficient method is used to explore the relevant influencing factors of the AGC reserve sequence concerning the data characteristics of the AGC reserve sequence. Then, the historical daily AGC reserve demand sequences with relevant features are input into the Attention-BiLSTM prediction model, and the improved whale algorithm is used to automatically find the optimal hyperparameters to obtain better prediction results. Finally, the arithmetic simulation results show that the model proposed in this paper has the best prediction performance with the upper (0.8810) and lower (0.6651) bounds of the coefficient of determination ( R 2 ) higher than the other models, and it has the smallest mean absolute percentage error ( M A P E ) and root mean square error ( R M S E ). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Main Forecasting Problems There are different types of forecasting problems that can arise in electricity demand forecasting, including: Very short-term forecasting, which refers to the prediction of electricity demand or production for a time horizon from seconds to a few hours ahead. The applications of long-term forecasts of wind farm power generation are, e.g., maintenance scheduling, wind farm design, electricity market restructuring, and optimization of operating costs. A modern power system is a complex network of interconnected components, such as generators, transmission lines, and distribution subsystems, that are designed to provide electricity to consumers in an efficient and reliable manner. A power system requires forecasts that predict the future electricity demand, the power generation from RESs, and meteorological data that are important regarding consumer demand and the level of generation from RESs. [Extracted from the article]

This paper examines how Australian residential load profiles may evolve in the short to medium term future. These profiles can be used to support simulation studies of the future Australian network within an environment that is transitioning to renewable energy and broader use of electricity as a tool for decarbonisation. The daily profiles rely heavily on the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) forecasts for future annual energy usage. The period from 2024 to 2050 will be transformational. In the residential networks, two secular trends are particularly important in expanding residential generation and electrification. New daily load profiles have been constructed using historical Australian profiles and adding additional components for solar generation, battery operation and electrification activities. The entire aggregated residential network is expected to have reverse midday power flow on any average day from 2024 onwards due to the rapid increase in electric vehicle (EV) usage. The domestic energy demand forecasting methodology presented in this work related to Australia can easily be adopted to carry out similar forecasting for any country of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sierra Leone is an electricity-poor country with one of the lowest electricity consumption per capita rates across sub-Saharan Africa. Yet, with ambitious targets to transform and stimulate its economy in the coming decades, energy demand forecasting becomes an integral component of successful energy planning. Through applying the MAED-D (version 2.0.0) demand software, this research study aims to generate Sierra Leone's electricity demand forecasts from 2023 to 2050. Three novel scenarios (baseline-, high-, and low-demand) are developed based on socio-economic and technical parameters. The baseline scenario considers the current electricity sector as business-as-usual; the high-demand scenario examines an ambitious development future with increased economic diversification and mechanisation, and the low-demand scenario examines more reserved future development. The modelled scenario results project an increase in electricity demand ranging from 7.32 PJ and 12.23 PJ to 5.53 PJ for the baseline-, high-, and low-demand scenarios, respectively, by 2050. This paper provides a base set of best-available data needed to produce an electricity demand model for Sierra Leone which can be used as a capacity-building tool for in-country energy planning alongside further integration into data modelling pipelines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demand response management (DRM) plays a crucial role in the prospective development of smart grids. The precise estimation of electricity demand for individual houses is vital for optimizing the operation and planning of the power system. Accurate forecasting of the required components holds significance as it can substantially impact the final cost, mitigate risks, and support informed decision-making. In this paper, a forecasting approach employing neural networks for smart grid demand-side management is proposed. The study explores various enhanced artificial neural network (ANN) architectures for forecasting smart grid consumption. The performance of the ANN approach in predicting energy demands is evaluated through a comparison with three statistical models: a time series model, an auto-regressive model, and a hybrid model. Experimental results demonstrate the ability of the proposed neural network framework to deliver accurate and reliable energy demand forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Power load prediction is fundamental for ensuring the reliability of power grid operation and the accuracy of power demand forecasting. However, the uncertainties stemming from power generation, such as wind speed and water flow, along with variations in electricity demand, present new challenges to existing power load prediction methods. In this paper, we propose an improved Convolutional Neural Network–Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (CNN-BILSTM) model for analyzing power load in systems affected by uncertain power conditions. Initially, we delineate the uncertainty characteristics inherent in real-world power systems and establish a data-driven power load model based on fluctuations in power source loads. Building upon this foundation, we design the CNN-BILSTM model, which comprises a convolutional neural network (CNN) module for extracting features from power data, along with a forward Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) module and a reverse LSTM module. The two LSTM modules account for factors influencing forward and reverse power load timings in the entire power load data, thus enhancing model performance and data utilization efficiency. We further conduct comparative experiments to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed CNN-BILSTM model. The experimental results demonstrate that CNN-BILSTM can effectively and more accurately predict power loads within power systems characterized by uncertain power generation and electricity demand. Consequently, it exhibits promising prospects for industrial applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy management systems allow the Smart Grids industry to track, improve, and regulate energy use. Particularly, demand-side management is regarded as a crucial component of the entire Smart Grids system. Therefore, by aligning utility offers with customer demand, anticipating future energy demands is essential for regulating consumption. An updated examination of several forecasting techniques for projecting energy short-term load forecasts is provided in this article. Each class of algorithms, including statistical techniques, Machine Learning, Deep Learning, and hybrid combinations, are comparatively evaluated and critically analyzed, based on three real consumption datasets from Spain, Germany, and the United States of America. To increase the size of tiny training datasets, this paper also proposes a data augmentation technique based on Generative Adversarial Networks. The results show that the Deep Learning-hybrid model is more accurate than traditional statistical methods and basic Machine Learning procedures. In the same direction, it is demonstrated that more comprehensive datasets assisted by complementary data, such as energy generation and weather, may significantly boost the accuracy of the models. Additionally, it is also demonstrated that Generative Adversarial Networks-based data augmentation may greatly improve algorithm accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variability in generation introduced in the electrical system by an increasing share of renewable technologies must be addressed by balancing mechanisms, demand response being a prominent one. In parallel, the massive introduction of smart meters allows for the use of high frequency energy use time series data to segment electricity customers according to their demand response potential. This paper proposes a smart meter time series clustering methodology based on a two-stage k-medoids clustering of normalized load-shape time series organized around the day divided into 48 time points. Time complexity is drastically reduced by first applying the k-medoids on each customer separately, and second on the total set of customer representatives. Further time complexity reduction is achieved using time series representation with low computational needs. Customer segmentation is undertaken with only four easy-to-interpret features: average energy use, energy–temperature correlation, entropy of the load-shape representative vector, and distance to wind generation patterns. This last feature is computed using the dynamic time warping distance between load and expected wind generation shape representative medoids. The two-stage clustering proves to be computationally effective, scalable and performant according to both internal validity metrics, based on average silhouette, and external validation, based on the ground truth embedded in customer surveys. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The supply logistics of energy biomasses generally involves a complex system of supply chains, which aim to achieve timely and cost-efficient feedstock deliveries to biomass demand points. The performance of supply chains is often examined in case studies where spatial data about biomass sources and transportation networks are deployed in varying resolutions and to different geographical extents. In this paper, we have reviewed 94 publications, in which spatial data were used in case studies that focused on analysing and optimising energy biomass supply chains. The reviewed publications were classified into 16 categories, according to the publication year, study methods and objectives, biomass types, supply system complexity and the spatial features of each study area. This review found that the use of geographical information systems in this context has increased in popularity in recent years, and that and the multiformity of the applied methods, study objectives and data sources have increased simultaneously. Another finding was that most of the studies that we reviewed focused on countries in which spatial biomass and transport network data of high quality were unrestrictedly available. Nevertheless, case studies, including spatial data from multiple countries, were represented marginally in the papers that we reviewed. In this paper we also argue that a standard way of reporting geographical contents in biomass case studies should be developed to improve the comprehension and reproducibility of the publications in this field of research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electricity load forecasting is of great significance for the overall operation of the power system and the orderly use of electricity at a later stage. However, traditional load forecasting does not consider the change in load quantity at each time point, while the information on the time difference of the load data can reflect the dynamic evolution information of the load data, which is a very important factor for load forecasting. In addition, the research topics in recent years mainly focus on the learning of the complex relationships of load sequences in time latitude by graph neural networks. The relationships between different variables of load sequences are not explicitly captured. In this paper, we propose a model that combines a differential learning network and a multidimensional feature graph attention layer, it can model the time dependence and dynamic evolution of load sequences by learning the amount of load variation at different time points, while representing the correlation of different variable features of load sequences through the graph attention layer. Comparative experiments show that the prediction errors of the proposed model have decreased by 5–26% compared to other advanced methods in the UC Irvine Machine Learning Repository Electricity Load Chart public dataset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The availability of empirical energy data from Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI)—which includes household smart meters—has enabled residential energy demand to be characterised in different forms. This paper first presents a literature review of applications of measured electricity, gas, and heat consumption data at a range of temporal resolutions, which have been used to characterise and develop an understanding of residential energy demand. User groups, sectors, and policy areas that can benefit from the research are identified. Multiple residential energy demand datasets have been collected in the UK that enable this characterisation. This paper has identified twenty-three UK datasets that are accessible for use by researchers, either through open access or defined processes, and presents them in an inventory containing details about the energy data type, temporal and spatial resolution, and presence of contextual physical and socio-demographic information. Thirteen applications of data relating to characterising residential energy demand have been outlined in the literature review, and the suitability of each of the twenty-three datasets was mapped to the thirteen applications. It is found that many datasets contain complementary contextual data that broaden their usefulness and that multiple datasets are suitable for several applications beyond their original project objectives, adding value to the original data collection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reducing the heat demand of existing buildings is an essential prerequisite for achieving a greenhouse gas-neutral energy supply. Numerous studies and open-source tools deal with heat demand mapping. It is not uncommon that estimated heat demands deviate from real heat consumption, so existing approaches should be improved by including in-depth building information. Some tools have recognised this problem and offer built-in functions for factoring various parameters into their assessments. Nevertheless, the necessary information is usually missing and should be obtained first. In this paper, we analyse the impact of thermal refurbishment and climate on building heat demand; hence, generate public datasets with corresponding key figures for each building type in different efficiency states and years. Accounting for already performed refurbishments in methodologies for assessing the actual state heat demand for cities will result in a reduction of at least 8% up to more than 21%, depending on whether conventional or passive house components were installed. As a result of climatic differences within Germany, a building's heat demand can be up to 39% higher or up to 21% lower than the heat demand of an identical building in the reference climate of Germany. By further developing the approaches of the tools Hotmaps and Heat Cadastre Hamburg, we could improve the estimated heat demand of Hamburg to a value approximating the real consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of the paper is to propose a new approach to forecast the energy consumption for the next day using the unique data obtained from a digital twin model of a building. In the research, we tested which of the chosen forecasting methods and which set of input data gave the best results. We tested naive methods, linear regression, LSTM and the Prophet method. We found that the Prophet model using information about the total energy consumption and real data about the energy consumption of the top 10 energy-consuming devices gave the best forecast of energy consumption for the following day. In this paper, we also presented a methodology of using decision trees and a unique set of conditional attributes to understand the errors made by the forecast model. This methodology was also proposed to reduce the number of monitored devices. The research that is described in this article was carried out in the context of a project that deals with the development of a digital twin model of a building. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reducing heat losses through the building envelope is one of the most important aspects to be met if the targets set by the European Union are to be achieved. In order to obtain a more realistic energy demand, dynamic heat transfer simulations are used to calculate the energy consumption of buildings, since steady-state calculations do not take into account the thermal mass in buildings. These dynamic simulations employ methods based on analytical models since numerical models are unsuitable for longer time periods. The analytical models used herein fall into the category of conduction transfer functions (CTFs). Two methods for computing CTFs that are addressed in this research are the Laplace method and the State-Space method. The objective of this paper is to verify the efficiency of the Laplace and State-Space methods for calculating the energy demand of a building in the case of heavyweight building elements and shorter sampling times, and to provide a means for improving the algorithms used by these methods. The Laplace and State-Space method algorithms were implemented in Mathematica, and the results were compared to EnergyPlus and TRNSYS, which use similar algorithms to calculate energy demand. It was shown in this paper that for the heavyweight wall element and a time step of 0.25 h, the difference between the total energy transferred through the inner surface was about 31% for EnergyPlus and 78% for TRNSYS compared to the reference solution. For the lightweight wall element, the results were stable for the time step of 0.25 h, but for the time step of 0.1 h, the differences were 45.64% and 303% between EnergyPlus, TRNSYS and the reference solution, respectively, compared to the State-Space and Laplace methods for which the maximum difference was 12.03% with a time step of 0.1 h. While dynamic heat transfer simulations are better than calculations based on steady-state boundary conditions, they also have their limitations and could lead to unsatisfactory results for short sampling times and if not applied properly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is critical for the energy industry. Accurate predictions of future electricity demand are necessary to ensure power systems' reliable and efficient operation. Various STLF models have been proposed in recent years, each with strengths and weaknesses. This paper comprehensively reviews some STLF models, including time series, artificial neural networks (ANNs), regression-based, and hybrid models. It first introduces the fundamental concepts and challenges of STLF, then discusses each model class's main features and assumptions. The paper compares the models in terms of their accuracy, robustness, computational efficiency, scalability, and adaptability and identifies each approach's advantages and limitations. Although this study suggests that ANNs and hybrid models may be the most promising ways to achieve accurate and reliable STLF, additional research is required to handle multiple input features, manage massive data sets, and adjust to shifting energy conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The construction of smart grids has greatly changed the power grid pattern and power supply structure. For the power system, reasonable power planning and demand response is necessary to ensure the stable operation of a society. Accurate load prediction is the basis for realizing demand response for the power system. This paper proposes a Pre-Attention-CNN-GRU model (PreAttCG) which combines a convolutional neural network (CNN) and gate recurrent unit (GRU) and applies the attention mechanism in front of the whole model. The PreAttCG model accepts historical load data and more than nine other factors (including temperature, wind speed, humidity, etc.) as input. The attention layer and CNN layer effectively extract the features and weights of each factor. Load forecasting is then performed by the prediction layer, which consists of a stacked GRU. The model is verified by industrial load data from a German dataset and a Chinese dataset from the real world. The results show that the PreAttCG model has better performance (3~5% improvement in MAPE) than both LSTM with only load input and LSTM with all factors. Additionally, the experiments also show that the attention mechanism can effectively extract the weights of relevant factors affecting the load data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to improve the forecasting of electricity market prices by incorporating the characteristics of electricity market prices that are discretely affected by the fuel cost per unit, the unit generation cost of the large-scale generators, and the demand. In this paper, two new techniques are introduced. The first technique applies feature generation to the label and forecasts the transformed new variables, which are then post-processed by inverse transformation, considering the characteristic of the fuel types of marginal generators or prices through two variables: fuel cost per unit by the representative fuel type and argument of the maximum of Probability Density Function (PDF) calculated by Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) from the previous price. The second technique applies decomposition to the demand, followed by a feature selection process to apply the major decomposed feature. It is verified using gain or SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) value in the feature selection process. In the case study, both showed improvement in all indicators. In the Korean Electricity Market, the unit generation cost for each generator is calculated monthly, resulting in a step-wise change in the electricity market price depending on the monthly fuel cost. Feature generation using the fuel cost per unit improved the forecasting by eliminating monthly volatility caused by the fuel costs and reducing the error that occurs at the beginning of the month. It improved the Mean Squared Percentage Error (MAPE) of 3.83[%]. Using the argument of the maximum PDF calculated by KDE improved the forecasting during the test period, where discrete monthly variations were not included. The resulting MAPE was 3.82[%]. Combining these two techniques resulted in the most accurate performance compared to the other techniques used, which had a MAPE of 3.49[%]. The MAPE of the forecasting with the decomposed data of the original price was 4.41[%]. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An energy supply and demand forecasting system can help decision-makers grasp more comprehensive information, make accurate decisions and even plan a carbon-neutral future when adjusting energy structure, developing alternative energy resources and so on. This paper presents a hierarchical design of an energy supply and demand forecasting system based on web crawler and a grey dynamic model called GM(1,1) which covers all the process of data collection, data analysis and data prediction. It mainly consists of three services, namely Crawler Service (CS), Algorithm Service (AS), Data Service (DS). The architecture of multiple loose coupling services makes the system flexible in more data, and more advanced prediction algorithms for future energy forecasting works. In order to make higher prediction accuracy based on GM(1,1), this paper illustrates some basic enhanced methods and their combinations with adaptable variable weights. An implementation for testing the system was applied, where the model was set up for coal, oil and natural gas separately, and the enhanced GM was better with relative error about 9.18% than original GM on validation data between 2010 and 2020. All results are available for reference on adjusting of energy structure and developing alternative energy resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a methodology developed to perform the processing, analysis, and characterization of AMI measurement data from the substations of three network operators of the Colombian electrical grid. This methodology includes the analysis of the data, which presents the sources of information used by the model, along with the preprocessing and exploratory analysis of the substations data. It also includes the formulation of the data reconstruction method, which uses a constrained optimization model to characterize the substations, based on the different behaviors of the end users of the Colombian electrical grid. In addition to the proposed methodology, the results of its application to the data provided by the operators are provided. These results show the capacity of the proposed methodology to adequately identify the most common behaviors of the users in a given area and characterize most of the energy demand profiles of each substation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate electricity demand forecasting is essential for global energy security, reducing costs, ensuring grid stability, and informing decision making in the energy sector. Disruptions often lead to unpredictable demand shifts, posing greater challenges for short-term load forecasting. Understanding electricity demand patterns during a pandemic offers insights into handling future disruptions. This study aims to develop an effective forecasting model for daily electricity peak demand, which is crucial for managing potential disruptions. This paper proposed a hybrid approach to address scenarios involving both government intervention and non-intervention, utilizing integration methods such as stepwise regression, similar day selection-based day type criterion, variational mode decomposition, empirical mode decomposition, fast Fourier transform, and neural networks with grid search optimization for the problem. The electricity peak load data in Thailand during the year of the COVID-19 situation is used as a case study to demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach. To enhance the flexibility and adaptability of the approach, the new criterion of separating datasets and the new criterion of similar day selection are proposed to perform one-day-ahead forecasting with rolling datasets. Computational analysis confirms the method's effectiveness, adaptability, reduced input, and computational efficiency, rendering it a practical choice for daily electricity peak demand forecasting, especially in disrupted situations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the age of energy transition that we are going through today, many research studies discuss how to develop various approaches to making forecasts aimed at obtaining quantitative assessments of the technical and economic indicators of the energy industry. This paper considers the adaptation of a comprehensive approach to forecasting the structure of energy generation based on the factor and trend approach and using autoregressive and multifactor models that apply a linear regression tool with ridge regularization. To implement this approach, we propose a tool for automated selection of the factors that have the most significant impact on the change in the structure of energy generation. This approach allows us to forecast the dynamics of electricity generation by different types of generating facilities as affected by the key factors in energy transition in the short, medium, and long term. As a result, we obtained quantitative relationships for the energy generation structure. Over the next 10 years, the share of generation using renewable energy sources will increase to 10%, and the share of thermal power plants, on the contrary, will decrease to 50%, despite the growth in demand for electricity. Also, greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced by 30%. We have also provided scientific justification for the sufficient reliability of the forecasts we present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This review paper provides a summary of methods in which artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have been applied in the management of variable renewable energy (VRE) systems, and an outlook to future directions of research in the field. The VRE types included are namely solar, wind and marine varieties. AI techniques, and particularly machine learning (ML), have gained traction as a result of data explosion, and offer a method for integration of multimodal data for more accurate forecasting in energy applications. The VRE management aspects in which AI techniques have been applied include optimized power generation forecasting and integration of VRE into power grids, including the aspects of demand forecasting, energy storage, system optimization, performance monitoring, and cost management. Future directions of research in the applications of AI for VRE management are proposed and discussed, including the issue of data availability, types and quality, in addition to explainable artificial intelligence (XAI), quantum artificial intelligence (QAI), coupling AI with the emerging digital twins technology, and natural language processing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The forecasting of electricity sales is directly related to the power generation planning of power enterprises and the progress of the generation tasks. Aiming at the problem that traditional forecasting methods cannot properly deal with the actual data offset caused by external factors, such as the weather, season, and spatial attributes, this paper proposes a method of electricity sales forecasting based on a deep spatio-temporal residual network (ST-ResNet). The method not only relies on the temporal correlation of electricity sales data but also introduces the influence of external factors and spatial correlation, which greatly enhances the fitting degree of each parameter of the model. Moreover, the residual module and the convolution module are fused to effectively reduce the damage of the deep convolutional process to the training effectiveness. Finally, the three comparison experiments of the ultra-short term, short term and medium term show that the MAPE forecasted by the ST-ResNet model is at least 2.69% lower than that of the RNN and other classical Deep Learning models, that its RMSE is at least 36.2% lower, and that its MAD is at least 34.2% lower, which is more obvious than the traditional methods. The effectiveness and feasibility of the ST-ResNet model in the short-term forecasting of electricity sales are verified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper conducts a literature review of applications of autoregressive methods to short-term forecasting of power demand. This need is dictated by the advancement of modern forecasting methods and their achievement in good forecasting efficiency in particular. The annual effectiveness of forecasting power demand for the Polish National Power Grid for the next day is approx. 1%; therefore, the main objective of the review is to verify whether it is possible to improve efficiency while maintaining the minimum financial outlays and time-consuming efforts. The methods that fulfil these conditions are autoregressive methods; therefore, the paper focuses on autoregressive methods, which are less time-consuming and, as a result, cheaper in development and applications. The prepared review ranks the forecasting models in terms of the forecasting effectiveness achieved in the literature on the subject, which enables the selection of models that may improve the currently achieved effectiveness of the transmission system operator. Due to the applied approach, a transparent set of forecasting methods and models was obtained, in addition to knowledge about their potential in the context of the needs for short-term forecasting of electricity demand in the national power system. The articles in which the MAPE error was used to assess the quality of short-term forecasts were analyzed. The investigation included 47 articles, several dozen forecasting methods, and 264 forecasting models. The articles date from 1997 and, apart from the autoregressive methods, also include the methods and models that use explanatory variables (non-autoregressive ones). The input data used come from the period 1998–2014. The analysis included 25 power systems located on four continents (Asia, Europe, North America, and Australia) that were published by 44 different research teams. The results of the review show that in the autoregressive methods applied to forecasting short-term power demand, there is a potential to improve forecasting effectiveness in power systems. The most promising prognostic models using the autoregressive approach, based on the review, include Fuzzy Logic, Artificial Neural Networks, Wavelet Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Neurofuse Inference Systems, Genetic Algorithms, Fuzzy Regression, and Data Envelope Analysis. These methods make it possible to achieve the efficiency of short-term forecasting of electricity demand with hourly resolution at the level below 1%, which confirms the assumption made by the authors about the potential of autoregressive methods. Other forecasting models, the effectiveness of which is high, may also prove useful in forecasting by electricity system operators. The paper also discusses the classical methods of Artificial Intelligence, Data Mining, Big Data, and the state of research in short-term power demand forecasting in power systems using autoregressive and non-autoregressive methods and models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the "carbon peaking and carbon neutrality" goal, Shanxi Province adjusts the power supply structure and promotes the development of a high proportion of new energy, which has a certain impact on the demand for thermal coal. Therefore, constructing a reasonable forecasting model for thermal coal demand can play a role in stabilizing coal supply and demand. This paper analyzes various factors related to coal demand, and uses Pearson coefficient to screen out six variables with strong correlation. Then, based on the scenario analysis method, combined with the "14th Five-Year Plan" of Shanxi Province, different scenarios of economic development and carbon emission reduction development are set. Finally, a multi-scenario GA–LSSVM forecasting model of thermal coal demand in Shanxi Province is constructed, and the future development trend of thermal coal demand in Shanxi Province is predicted. The results show that the demand for thermal coal is the largest in the mode of high-speed economic development and low emission reduction, and the demand for thermal coal is the lowest in the mode of low-speed economic development and strong emission reduction, which provides a scientific basis for the implementation of Shanxi Province's thermal coal supply policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate short-term power load forecasting is crucial to maintaining a balance between energy supply and demand, thus minimizing operational costs. However, the intrinsic uncertainty and non-linearity of load data substantially impact the accuracy of forecasting results. To mitigate the influence of these uncertainties and non-linearity in electric load data on the forecasting results, we propose a hybrid network that integrates variational mode decomposition with a temporal convolutional network (TCN) and a bidirectional gated recurrent unit (BiGRU). This integrated approach aims to enhance the accuracy of short-term power load forecasting. The method was validated on load datasets from Singapore and Australia. The MAPE of this paper's model on the two datasets reached 0.42% and 1.79%, far less than other models, and the R2 reached 98.27% and 97.98, higher than other models. The experimental results show that the proposed network exhibits a better performance compared to other methods, and could improve the accuracy of short-term electricity load forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the development goal of a low-cost and low-carbon reserve market, this paper proposes a dynamic assessment method for day-ahead consumption service reserve demand considering the forecast error of uncertainty power. The iterative self-organizing data analysis techniques algorithm is adopted to cluster the historical actual power into typical scenarios. In addition, the online matching between the typical scenario and the day-ahead forecast power is conducted. In order to realize the hierarchical quantification of reserve demand, the reserve resources in the whole power system are classified according to their response time. Furthermore, the mathematical morphology filter based on the structural elements that are consistent with the response time of the hierarchical reserve resources is initially applied to decompose the historical forecast error of the matched scenarios. The simulation results verify that the proposed dynamic assessment effectively reduces the reserve cost on the basis of being able to cope with multi-time-scale power fluctuations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aviation industry has driven economic growth and facilitated cultural exchange over the past century. However, concerns have arisen regarding its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions and potential impact on climate change. In response to this challenge, stakeholders have proposed the use of electric ground support vehicles, powered by renewable energy sources, at airports. This solution aims to not only reduce emissions, but to also lower energy costs. Nonetheless, the successful implementation of such a system relies on accurate energy demand forecasting, which is influenced by flight data and fluctuations in renewable energy availability. This paper presents a novel data-driven, machine-learning-based energy prediction model that compared the performance of the Facebook Prophet and vector autoregressive integrated moving average algorithms to develop time series models to forecast the ground movement operation net energy demand in the airport, using historical flight data and an onsite airport-based PV power system (ASPV). The results demonstrate the superiority of the Facebook Prophet model over the vector autoregressive integrated moving average (VARIMA), highlighting its utility for airport operators and planners in managing energy consumption and preparing for future electrified ground movement operations at the airport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting energy demand in adverse scenarios, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, is critical to ensure the supply of electricity and the operation of essential services in metropolitan regions. In this paper, we propose a deep learning model to predict the demand for the next day using the "IEEE DataPort Competition Day-Ahead Electricity Demand Forecasting: Post-COVID Paradigm" database. The best model uses hybrid deep neural network architecture (convolutional network–recurrent network) to extract spatial-temporal features from the input data. A preliminary analysis of the input data was performed, excluding anomalous variables. A sliding window was applied for importing the data into the network input. The input data was normalized, using a higher weight for the demand variable. The proposed model's performance was better than the models that stood out in the competition, with a mean absolute error of 2361.84 kW. The high similarity between the actual demand curve and the predicted demand curve evidences the efficiency of the application of deep networks compared with the classical methods applied by other authors. In the pandemic scenario, the applied technique proved to be the best strategy to predict demand for the next day. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Workload prediction is essential in cloud data centers (CDCs) for establishing scalability and resource elasticity. However, the workload prediction accuracy in the cloud data center could be better due to noise, redundancy, and low performance for workload prediction. This paper designs a hierarchical tree-based deep convolutional neural network (T-CNN) model with sheep flock optimization (SFO) to enhance CDCs' power efficiency and workload prediction. The kernel method is used to preprocess historical information from the CDCs. Additionally, T-CNN model weight parameters are optimized using SFO. The suggested TCNN-SFO technology has successfully reduced excessive power consumption while correctly forecasting the incoming demand. Further, the proposed model is assessed using two benchmark datasets: Saskatchewan HTTP traces and NASA. The developed model is executed in a Java tool. Therefore, associated with existing methods, the developed technique has achieved higher accuracy of 20.75%, 19.06%, 29.09%, 23.8%, and 20.5%, as well as lower energy consumption of 20.84%, 18.03%, 28.64%, 30.72%, and 33.74% when validating the Saskatchewan HTTP traces dataset. It has also achieved higher accuracy of 32.95%, 12.05%, 32.65%, and 26.54%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Daily electricity peak load forecasting is important for electricity generation capacity planning. Accurate forecasting leads to saving on excessive electricity generating capacity, while maintaining the stability of the power system. The main challenging tasks in this research field include improving forecasting accuracy and reducing computational time. This paper proposes a hybrid model involving variational mode decomposition (VMD), empirical mode decomposition (EMD), fast Fourier transform (FFT), stepwise regression, similar days selection (SD) method, and artificial neural network (ANN) for daily electricity peak load forecasting. Stepwise regression and similar days selection method are used for input variable selection. VMD and FFT are applied for data decomposition and seasonality capturing, while EMD is employed for determining an appropriate decomposition level for VMD. The hybrid model is constructed to effectively forecast special holidays, which have different patterns from other normal weekdays and weekends. The performance of the hybrid model is tested with real electricity peak load data provided by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, the leading power utility state enterprise under the Ministry of Energy. Experimental results show that the hybrid model gives the best performance while saving computation time by solving the problems in input variable selection, data decomposition, and imbalance data of normal and special days in the training process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes an energy management system (EMS) that aims at managing the modular direct current (DC) microgrids (MGs) of a hybrid DC/AC power system onboard cruise ships. Each shipboard microgrid is an electrically self-sufficient system supplied only by a fuel cell (FC) and a Lithium battery, and it powers the ship's hotel services. However, continuously varying power demand profiles negatively affect the FC. Thus, the proposed EMS aims to minimize the FC operating point excursion on the source's characteristic. This goal is pursued by exploiting the battery capability to manage load fluctuations and compensate for power demand forecasting errors. Furthermore, it is accomplished while satisfying all the operational constraints of the shipboard microgrids and ensuring daily battery charging/discharging cycles. The proposed EMS is based on two subsystems: (1) a rule-based microgrid supervisor, which makes the EMS capable of managing black start, normal operating conditions, and transient or faulty conditions; (2) an energy management (EM) algorithm, which allows achieving the desired goal without oversizing the battery, thus granting the cost-effectiveness of the solution and a reduced impact on technical volumes/weights on board. The EMS was tested with specific reference to a real-world case study, i.e., a 48,000 gross tonnage cruise ship under different operating scenarios, including black start and multi-day period operation of shipboard MGs. Test results showed that the operating points of the FC were always in the neighborhood of the point chosen by the MG designer, that the voltage variations were always well below 5%, guaranteeing stable operation, and that the black start operation was suitably handled by the EMS. According to the obtained results, the effectiveness of the proposed approach was assessed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Smart grids have introduced several key concepts, including demand response, prosumers—active consumers capable of producing, consuming, and storing both electrical and thermal energies—retail market, and local energy markets. Preserving data privacy in this emerging environment has raised concerns and challenges. The use of novel methods such as online learning is recommended to address these challenges through prediction of the behavior of market stakeholders. In particular, the challenge of predicting prosumers' behavior in an interaction with retailers requires creating a dynamic environment for retailers to set their optimal pricing. An innovative model of retailer–prosumer interactions in a day-ahead market is presented in this paper. By forecasting the behavior of prosumers by using an online learning method, the retailer implements an optimal pricing scheme to maximize profits. Prosumers, however, seek to reduce energy costs to the greatest extent possible. It is possible for prosumers to participate in a price-based demand response program voluntarily and without the retailer's interference, ensuring their privacy. A heuristic distributed approach is applied to solve the proposed problem in a fully distributed framework with minimum information exchange between retailers and prosumers. The case studies demonstrate that the proposed model effectively fulfills its objectives for both retailer and prosumer sides by adopting the distributed approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effective operation of a microgrid depends critically on accurate forecasting of its components. Recently, internet forecasting competitions have been used to determine the best methods for energy forecasting, with some competitions having a special focus on microgrids and COVID-19 energy-use forecasting. This paper describes forecasting for the IEEE Computational Intelligence Society 3rd Technical Challenge, which required predicting solar and building loads of a microgrid system at Monash University for the month of November 2020. The forecast achieved the lowest error rate in the competition. We review the literature on recent energy forecasting competitions and metrics and explain how the solution drew from top-ranked solutions in previous energy forecasting competitions such as the Global Energy Forecasting Competition series. The techniques can be reapplied in other forecasting endeavours, while approaches to some of the time-series forecasting are more ad hoc and specific to the competition. Novel thresholding approaches were used to improve the quality of the input data. As the training and evaluation phase of the challenge occurred during COVID-19 lockdown and reopening, the building demand was subject to pandemic-related effects. Finally, we assess other data sources which would have improved the model forecast skill such as data from different numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, solar observations, and high-resolution price and demand data in the vicinity of the campus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An increase in energy demand in the coming years is inevitable, and therefore it is necessary to provide optimal solutions for this future need. This paper examines the future energy demands of the southern regions of Iran (with a hot and dry climate and high energy needs). In this regard, the overall structure of the research has been divided into three parts. In the first part, using historical energy consumption data, the energy demand in 2030 is predicted. This is carried out utilizing a time series analysis method, namely Holt–Winters. Then, relying on the plans of the Iran Ministry of Energy, various energy plans have been designed and energy modeling has been carried out for both base and forecast years. Finally, regarding a multi-criteria decision-making approach, energy plans are ranked and the best scenarios are selected and analyzed. The results of modeling and multi-criteria analysis showed that comprehensive and simultaneous development in the construction of thermal and renewable power plants is the best option to meet future energy needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study was carried out on a group of 85 public buildings, which differed in type of use, construction technology and heating systems. From the collected data, a set of qualitative and quantitative variables characterizing them in terms of heat demand was extracted. In this paper, the authors undertook to test the suitability of a model based on rough set theory (RST), which allows the analysis of imprecise, general and uncertain data. To obtain input data for the RST model in quantitative form, the authors used an alternative approach, which is a method based on the thermal properties of buildings. The quality of the predictive model was evaluated based on the following indicators, such as the coefficient of determination (R2), the mean bias error (MBE), the coefficient of variance of the root mean square error (CV RMSE) and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), which are accepted as statistical calibration standards by ASHRAE (American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers). A quality-acceptable predictive model must meet the calibration conditions: MBE ±5%, CV RMSE < 15% and R2 > 0.75. For the analyzed RST model, the following values of evaluation indicators were obtained: MBE = −1.1%, CV RMSE = 11.8% and R2 = 0.91. The evaluation results obtained gave rise to the conclusion that the method used, which is based on a limited amount of data describing buildings, gives good results in estimating the unit rate of energy demand for heating. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building electricity load forecasting plays an important role in building energy management, peak demand and power grid security. In the past two decades, a large number of data-driven models have been applied to building and larger-scale energy consumption predictions. Although these models have been successful in specific cases, their performances would be greatly affected by the quantity and quality of the building data. Moreover, for older buildings with sparse data, or new buildings with no historical data, accurate predictions are difficult to achieve. Aiming at such a data silos problem caused by the insufficient data collection in the building energy consumption prediction, this study proposes a building electricity load forecasting method based on a similarity judgement and an improved TrAdaBoost algorithm (iTrAdaBoost). The Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) is used to search similar building samples related to the target building from public datasets. Different from general Boosting algorithms, the proposed iTrAdaBoost algorithm iteratively updates the weights of the similar building samples and combines them together with the target building samples for a prediction accuracy improvement. An educational building's case study is carried out in this paper. The results show that even when the target and source samples belong to different domains, i.e., the geographical location and meteorological condition of the buildings are different, the proposed MMD-iTradaBoost method has a better prediction accuracy in the transfer learning process than the BP or traditional AdaBoost models. In addition, compared with other advanced deep learning models, the proposed method has a simple structure and is easy for engineering implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rising demand for electricity, economic benefits, and environmental pressures related to the use of fossil fuels are driving electricity generation mostly from renewable energy sources. One of the main challenges in renewable energy generation is uncertainty involved in forecasting because of the intermittent nature of renewable sources. The demand also varies according to the time of day, the season, the location, the climate, and the availability of resources. Microgrids offer a potential solution for the integration of small-scale renewable energy sources and loads along with energy storage systems and other non-renewable sources. However, intermittent generation and varying demand need to be matched to provide stable power to consumers. Therefore, it is crucial to design an energy management system to effectively manage the energy sources and supply loads for reliable and efficient operation. This paper reviews different techniques proposed in the literature to achieve the objectives of a microgrid energy management system. The benefits of existing energy management systems and their challenges are also discussed. The challenges associated with uncertainties and methods to overcome them are critically reviewed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demand forecasting produces valuable information for optimal supply chain management. The basic metals industry is the most energy-intensive industries in the electricity supply chain. There are some differences between this chain and other supply chains including the impossibility of large-scale energy storage, reservation constraints, high costs, limitations on electricity transmission lines capacity, real-time response to high-priority strategic demand, and a variety of energy rates at different hours and seasons. A coupled demand forecasting approach is presented in this paper to forecast the demand time series of the metal industries microgrid with minimum available input data (only demand time series). The proposed method consists of wavelet decomposition in the first step. The training subsets and the validation subsets are used in the training and fine-tuning of the LSTM model using the ELATLBO method. The ESC dataset used in this study for electrical demand forecasting includes 24-h daily over 40 months from 21 March 2017, to 21 June 2020. The obtained results have been compared with the results of Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree, Boosted Tree, and Random Forest forecasting models optimized using the Bayesian Optimization (BO) method. The results show that performance of the proposed method is well in demand forecasting of the metal industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accurate prediction of building heat demand plays the critical role in refined management of heating, which is the basis for on-demand heating operation. This paper proposed a prediction model framework for building heat demand based on reinforcement learning. The environment, reward function and agent of the model were established, and experiments were carried out to verify the effectiveness and advancement of the model. Through the building heat demand prediction, the model proposed in this study can dynamically control the indoor temperature within the acceptable interval (19–23 °C). Moreover, the experimental results showed that after the model reached the primary, intermediate and advanced targets in training, the proportion of time that the indoor temperature can be controlled within the target interval (20.5–21.5 °C) was over 35%, 55% and 70%, respectively. In addition to maintaining indoor temperature, the model proposed in this study also achieved on-demand heating operation. The model achieving the advanced target, which had the best indoor temperature control performance, only had a supply–demand error of 4.56%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]