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This paper presents a quantitative assessment of the value of hydroelectric power plants (HPPs) in power systems with a significant penetration of variable renewable energy sources (VRESs). Through a capacity expansion planning (CEP) model that incorporates a detailed representation of HPP operating principles, the study investigates the construction and application of HPP rule curves essential for seasonal operation. A comparative analysis is also conducted between the proposed rule curve formulation and alternative modeling techniques from the literature. The CEP model optimizes installed capacities per technology to achieve predefined VRES penetration targets, considering hourly granularity and separate rule curves for each HPP. A case study involving twelve reservoir hydropower stations and two open-loop pumped hydro stations is examined, accounting for standalone plants and cascaded hydro systems across six river basins. The study evaluates the additional generation and storage required to replace the hydropower fleet under high VRES penetration levels, assessing the resulting increases in total system cost emanating from introducing such new investments. Furthermore, the study approximates the storage capabilities of HPPs and investigates the impact of simplified HPP modeling on system operation and investment decisions. Overall, the findings underscore the importance of reevaluating hydro rule curves for future high VRES penetration conditions and highlight the significance of HPPs in the energy transition towards carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work presents an implementation of a Nested Decomposition Algorithm (NDA) applied to co-optimizing generation and transmission capacity expansion planning problems in power systems, including operational flexibility constraints. The proposed methodology has been gaining relevance in recent years, as it can efficiently solve large mixed-integer problems faster than the conventional extensive formulation (mixed-integer linear programming). Three case studies are conducted on two IEEE test power systems to evaluate the algorithm's performance and cut configuration. The first case study compares the performance between the NDA and the extensive formulation. The second case study compares the performance of each cut type, analyzing differences in simulation times and algorithm convergence. The third case study proposes a set of cut patterns based on the prior outcomes, whose performance and convergence are tested. Based on the simulation results, conclusions are drawn about the capability and performance of the NDA applied to the capacity expansion planning problem. The study shows that obtaining results with reasonable convergence in less simulation time is possible using a particular pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, global warming and environmental problems have become more serious due to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Harvesting solar energy for production and logistic activities in supply chains, including factories and distribution centers, has been promoted as an effective means to reduce GHG emissions. However, it is difficult to balance the supply and demand of solar energy, owing to its intermittent nature, i.e., the output depends on the daylight and season. Moreover, the use of large-capacity solar power generation systems and batteries incurs higher installation costs. In order to maintain low costs, demand-to-supply management of solar energy, based on appropriate seasonal analysis of power generation and consumption and the capacity planning for power generation and the storage battery, is necessary. In this study, the on-demand cumulative control method is applied to actual power consumption data and solar power generation data estimated at a distribution center. Moreover, the monthly, seasonal, and temporal characteristics of power generation and consumption at the distribution center are analyzed. Additionally, the total amount of power purchased is investigated for solar energy demand-to-supply management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A bi-objective joint optimization planning approach that combines component sizing and short-term operational planning into a single model with demand response strategies to realize a techno-economically feasible renewable energy-based microgrid is discussed in this paper. The system model includes a photovoltaic system, wind turbine, and battery. An enhanced demand response program with dynamic pricing devised based on instantaneous imbalances between surplus, deficit, and the battery's power capacity is developed. A quantitative metric for assessing energy storage performance is also proposed and utilized. Emergency, critical peak pricing, and power capacity-based dynamic pricing (PCDP) demand response programs (DRPs) are comparatively analyzed to determine the most cost-effective planning approach. Four simulation scenarios to determine the most techno-economic planning approach are formulated and solved using a mixed-integer linear programming algorithm optimization solver with the epsilon constraint method in Matlab. The objective function is to minimize the total annualized costs (TACs) while satisfying the reliability criterion regarding the loss of power supply probability and energy storage dependency. The results show that including the DRP resulted in a significant reduction in TACs and system component capacities. The cost-benefit of incorporating PCDP DRP strategies in the planning model increases the overall system flexibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents and solves the problems of modeling and designing the required EV charging service capacity for systems with a slow dynamic component. This includes possible bursts within a peak hour interval. A simulation tool with a newly implemented capacity planning method has been developed and implemented for these needs. The method can be used for different system simulations and simultaneously for systems with high, medium, and low service dynamics. The proposed method is based on a normal distribution, a primary mechanism that describes events within a daily interval (24 h) or a peak hour interval (rush hour). The goal of the presented approach, including the proposed method, is to increase the level and quality of the EV charging service system. The near-optimal solution with the presented method can be found manually by changing the service capacity parameter concerning the criterion function. Manual settings limit the number of rejected events, the time spent in the queue, and other service system performance parameters. In addition to manual search for near-optimal solutions, the method also provides automatic search by using the automation procedure of simulation runs and increasing/decreasing the service capacity parameter by a specifically calculated amount. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The decarbonization of the power system forces the rapid development of electric energy storage (EES). Electricity consumption is the fundamental driving force of carbon emissions in the power system. However, the current EES capacity planning research that considers the load-side carbon emission responsibility is still limited. To fill this research gap, this paper proposes a carbon incentive mechanism while considering load-side carbon emission responsibility. Additionally, a bi-level optimal capacity planning model of the load-side EES based on carbon emission flow (CEF) theory is proposed. The upper level obtained the bus carbon intensities through the optimal economic dispatch and passed them to the lower level. Considering the carbon incentive mechanism, the lower level optimized the EES capacity. Finally, the model was tested by MATLAB/Gurobi in the modified IEEE-39 bus power system. The results show that under the stimulation of the carbon incentive mechanism, the bi-level optimal capacity planning model of the load-side EES could effectively promote peak shaving, valley filling, and carbon reduction. Furthermore, compared with the two existing EES subsidy policies, the proposed carbon incentive mechanism is verified to be more conducive to reducing system carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a competitive electricity market, generation capacities can exactly cover their full costs. However, the real market deviates from this ideal in some aspects. One is the concern of non-existent or insufficient scarcity prices. We present an iterative method in a linear optimization model to investigate the profitability of assets in the absence of scarcity prices and how the system changes when this risk is incorporated into investors' expectations. Therefore, we use a two-step optimization of capacity planning and unit commitment. Iteratively, mark-ups at the height of uncovered costs are added to investment costs. This typically leads to a system with better investment profitability while keeping the system cost increase low. The methodology is applied to a simplified brownfield generation system, targeting CO2-free power generation within 25 years. In a model with annual foresight of actors, iterations result in a generation system with significantly lower (or even no) uncovered costs for new investments within ten or fewer iterations. Our example case with full foresight shows that early-added gas (combined cycle) and wind onshore capacities are able to recover their full costs over a lifetime, even without scarcity prices. However, the contribution margin gap remains high, especially for storage and biomass. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of new power systems, reasonable capacity optimization of multiple power systems can not only reduce carbon emissions, but also improve system safety and stability. This paper proposes a situation awareness-based capacity optimization strategy for wind-photovoltaic-thermal power systems and establishes a bi-level model for system capacity optimization. The upper-level model considers environmental protection and economy, and carries out multi-objective optimization of the system capacity planning solution with the objectives of minimizing carbon emissions and total system cost over the whole life cycle of the system, further obtaining a set of capacity planning solutions based on the Pareto frontier. A Pareto optimal solution set decision method based on grey relativity analysis is proposed to quantitatively assess the comprehensive economic–environmental properties of the system. The capacity planning solutions obtained from the upper model are used as the input to the lower model. The lower model integrates system stability, environmental protection, and economy and further optimizes the set of capacity planning solutions obtained from the upper model with the objective of maximizing the inertia security region and the best comprehensive economic–environmental properties to obtain the optimal capacity planning scheme. The NSGA-II modified algorithm (improved NSGA-II algorithm based on dominant strength, INSGA2-DS) is used to solve the upper model, and the Cplex solver is called on to solve the lower model. Finally, the modified IEEE-39 node algorithm is used to verify that the optimized capacity planning scheme can effectively improve the system security and stability and reduce the carbon emissions and total system cost throughout the system life cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the long-term energy capacity investment problem of a power generation company (GenCo), considering the drought threat posed by climate change in hydropower resources in Turkey. The mid-term planning decisions such as maintenance and refurbishment scheduling of power plants are also considered in the studied investment planning problem. In the modeled electricity market, it is assumed that GenCos conduct business in uncertain market conditions with both bilateral contracts (BIC) and day-ahead market (DAM) transactions. The problem is modeled as a fuzzy mixed-integer linear programming model with a fuzzy objective and fuzzy constraints to handle the imprecisions regarding both the electricity market (e.g., prices) and environmental factors (e.g., hydroelectric output due to drought). Bellman and Zadeh's max-min criteria are used to transform the fuzzy capacity investment model into a model with a crisp objective and constraints. The applicability of methodology is illustrated by a case study on the Turkish electric market in which GenCo tries to find the optimal power generation investment portfolio that contains five various generation technologies alternatives, namely, hydropower, wind, conventional and advanced combined-cycle natural gas, and steam (lignite) turbines. The results show that wind turbines with low marginal costs and steam turbines with high energy conversion efficiency are preferable, compared with hydroelectric power plant investments when the fuzziness in hydroelectric output exists (i.e., the expectation of increasing drought conditions as a result of climate change). Furthermore, the results indicate that the gas turbine investments were found to be the least preferable due to high gas prices in all scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to South Africa's national energy policy, network penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) generation will significantly increase by 2030. Increased associated network uncertainty creates the need for an additional flexible generation. As the planned VRE is mostly non-synchronous PV and wind generators, additional ancillary services will also be required. Pumped Storage (PS), which is a well-established flexible generation technology with fast ramping capability and the ability to contribute various ancillary services, could help integrate increased VRE penetration on the South African network. However, in the latest revision of South Africa's energy policy, PS was left out in favor of gas turbines and batteries as favored flexible generation options. This paper explores the two-part hypothesis that PS was disadvantaged in the formulation of a national energy mix due to: (a) ancillary services provided by PS not being explicitly monetized in energy modeling software; (b) the uncertainties associated with project costing assumptions. The value of PS in terms of providing ancillary services is firstly explored using the international literature. Secondly, the impact of input-cost uncertainties is demonstrated by comparing pumped storage, gas turbines, and batteries using levelized cost of energy (LCOE) curves and the Tools for Energy Model Optimization and Analysis (Temoa), North Carolina State University, USA, optimization software. Based on LCOE calculations using revised cost assumptions, it is found that PS may indeed be preferential to gas turbines or batteries, particularly at large load factors. The authors hope that this research contributes to the scientific understanding of the role that PS can play in supporting the integration of generation from renewable sources for effective grid operations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The most robust methods to determine the capacity contribution from intermittent sources combine load curve, variable generation profile, and dispatchable generators' data to calculate any new inserted variable source's capacity value in the power system. However, these methods invariably adopt the premise that the system's dispatchable generators' capacity is constant. That is an unacceptable limitation when the energy mix has a large share of hydroelectric sources. Hydroelectric plants are dispatchable sources with variable maximum power output over time, varying mainly according to the reservoirs' level. This article develops a method that makes it possible to calculate the capacity value from renewable resources when the dispatchable generation units of an electric system have variable capacity. The authors apply the method to calculate the capacity value from solar and wind sources in Brazil as an exercise. By abandoning the hypothesis of constant dispatchable capacity, the developed approach is in principle extensible for other energy-limited resources, such as batteries and concentrating solar power (CSP). This can be a strategy to incorporate energy-limited capacity sources into the planning and operation models as reliable capacity sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As more generation capacity using renewable sources is accommodated in the power system, methods to represent the uncertainty of renewable sources become more important, and stochastic models with different methods for uncertainty representation are introduced. This paper investigates the impacts of hourly variability representation of random variables on a stochastic generation capacity expansion planning model. In order to represent the hourly variability as well as uncertainty of the random parameters such as wind power availability, solar irradiance, and load, AutoRegressive-To-Anything (ARTA) stochastic process is applied. By using autocorrelations and marginal distributions of the random parameters, a stochastic process with hourly intervals is generated, where generated random sample paths are used for scenarios. A mathematical formulation using stochastic programming is presented, and a modified IEEE 300-bus system with transmission line constraints is employed to the mathematical model as a test system. Optimal generation capacity solutions obtained using GAMS/CPLEX are compared to the ones from the model only capturing the uncertainty and seasonal variability of the random parameters. The comparison results indicate that the economic value of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation may be overestimated in the case where the hourly variability is not reflected; thus, ignoring the hourly variability may lead to higher building costs and higher capacity of solar PV systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the grid-tied micro-grid context, energy resilience can be defined as the time period that a local energy system can supply the critical loads during an unplanned upstream grid outage. While the role of renewable-based micro-grids in enhancing communities' energy resilience is well-appreciated, the academic literature on the techno-economic optimisation of community-scale micro-grids lacks a quantitative decision support analysis concerning the inclusion of a minimum resilience constraint in the optimisation process. Utilising a specifically-developed, time-based resilience capacity characterisation method to quantify the sustainability of micro-grids in the face of different levels of extended grid power outages, this paper facilitates stakeholder decision-making on the trade-off between the whole-life cost of a community micro-grid system and its degree of resilience. Furthermore, this paper focuses on energy infrastructure expansion planning, aiming to analyse the importance of micro-grid reinforcement to meet new sources of electricity demand—particularly, transport electrification—in addition to the business-as-usual demand growth. Using quantitative case study evidence from the Totarabank Subdivision in New Zealand, the paper concludes that at the current feed-in-tariff rate (NZ$0.08/kWh), the life cycle profitability of resilience-oriented community micro-grid capacity reinforcement is guaranteed within a New Zealand context, though constrained by capital requirements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Distributed wind power (DWP) needs to be consumed locally under a 110 kV network without reverse power flow in China. To maximize the use of DWP, this paper proposes a novel method for capacity planning of DWP with participation of the energy storage system (ESS) in multiple scenarios by means of a variable-structure copula and optimization theory. First, wind power and local load are predicted at the planning stage by an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, then, variable-structure copula models are established based on different time segment strategies to depict the correlation of DWP and load, and the joint typical scenarios of DWP and load are generated by clustering, and a capacity planning model of DWP is proposed considering investment and operation cost, and environmental benefit and line loss cost under typical scenario conditions. Moreover, a collaborative capacity planning model for DWP and ESS is prospectively proposed. Based on the modified IEEE-33 bus system, the results of the case study show that the DWP capacity result is more reasonable after considering the correlation of wind and load by using a variable-structure copula. With consideration of the collaborative planning of DWP and load, the consumption of DWP is further improved, the annual cost of the system is more economical, and the quality of voltage is effectively improved. The study results validate the proposed method and provide effective reference for the planning strategy of DWP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we successfully develop the transmission planning problem of large-scale power systems based on generalized shift-factors. These distribution factors produce a reduced solution space which does not need the voltage bus angles to model new transmission investments. The introduced formulation copes with the stochastic generation and transmission capacity expansion planning problem modeling the operational problem using a 24-hourly load behaviour. Results show that this formulation achieves an important reduction of decision variables and constraints in comparison with the classical disjunctive transmission planning methodology known as the Big M formulation without sacrificing optimality. We test both the introduced and the Big M formulations to find out convergence and time performance using a commercial solver. Finally, several test power systems and extensive computational experiments are conducted to assess the capacity planning methodology. Solving deterministic and stochastic problems, we demonstrate a prominent reduction in the solver simulation time especially with large-scale power systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]