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To mitigate global warming, the Chinese government has successively set carbon intensity targets for 2020 and 2030. Energy restructuring is critical for achieving these targets. In this paper, a combined forecasting model is utilized to predict primary energy consumption in China. Subsequently, the Markov model and non-linear programming model are used to forecast China's energy structure in 2020 and 2030 in three scenarios. Carbon intensities were forecasted by combining primary energy consumption, energy structure and economic forecasting. Finally, this paper analyzes the contribution potential of energy structure optimization in each scenario. Our main research conclusions are that in 2020, the optimal energy structure will enable China to achieve its carbon intensity target under the conditions of the unconstrained scenario, policy-constrained scenario and minimum external costs of carbon emissions scenario. Under the three scenarios, the carbon intensity will decrease by 42.39%, 43.74%, and 42.67%, respectively, relative to 2005 levels. However, in 2030, energy structure optimization cannot fully achieve China's carbon intensity target under any of the three scenarios. It is necessary to undertake other types of energy-saving emission reduction measures. Thus, our paper concludes with some policy suggestions to further mitigate China's carbon intensities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The power industry is the industry with the most direct uses of fossil fuels in China and is one of China's main carbon industries. A comprehensive and accurate analysis of the impacts of carbon emissions by the power industry can reveal the potential for carbon emissions reductions in the power industry to achieve China's emissions reduction targets. The main contribution of this paper is the use of a Generalized Divisia Index Model for the first time to factorize the change of carbon emissions in China's power industry from 2000 to 2015, and gives full consideration to the influence of the economy, population, and energy consumption on the carbon emissions. At the same time, the Monte Carlo method is first used to predict the carbon emissions of the power industry from 2017 to 2030 under three different scenarios. The results show that the output scale is the most important factor leading to an increase in carbon emissions in China's power industry from 2000 to 2015, followed by the energy consumption scale and population size. Energy intensity levels have always promoted carbon emissions reduction in the power industry, where energy intensity and carbon intensity effects of energy consumption have great potential to mitigate carbon levels. By setting the main factors affecting carbon emissions in the future three scenarios, this paper predicts the carbon emissions of China's power industry from 2017 to 2030. Under the baseline scenario, the maximum probability range of the potential annual growth rate of carbon emissions by the power industry in China from 2017 to 2030 is 1.9–2.2%. Under the low carbon scenario and technological breakthrough scenario, carbon emissions in China's power industry continue to decline from 2017 to 2030. The maximum probability range of the potential annual drop rate are measured at 1.6–2.1% and 1.9–2.4%, respectively. The results of this study show that China's power industry still has great potential to reduce carbon emissions. In the future, the development of carbon emissions reduction in the power industry should focus on the innovation and development of energy saving and emissions reduction technology on the premise of further optimizing the energy structure and adhering to the low-carbon road. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]