Search

Decarbonizing fossil-fuel usage is crucial in mitigating the impacts of climate change. The burning of fossil fuels in boilers during industrial process heating is one of the major sources of CO2 in the industry. Electrification is a promising solution for decarbonizing these boilers, as it enables renewable energy sources to generate electricity, which can then be used to power the electric boilers. This research develops a user-driven simulation model with realistic data and potential temperature data for a location to estimate boilers' current energy and fuel usage and determine the equivalent electrical boiler capacity and energy usage. A simulation model is developed using the Visual Basic Application (VBA)® and takes factors such as current boiler capacity, steam temperature and pressure, condensate, makeup water, blowdown, surface area, and flue gas information as input. Random numbers generate the hourly temperature variation for a year for discrete-event Monte Carlo Simulation. The simulation generates the hourly firing factor, energy usage, fuel usage, and CO2 emissions of boilers for a whole year, and the result compares fossil-fuel and electrical boilers. The simulated data are validated using real system data, and sensitivity analysis of the model is performed by varying the input data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Significant price spikes occurred as early as 2021, initially driven by low gas storage levels, a post-pandemic economic rebound and then exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The situation had a range of wide-ranging consequences, from rising inflation, increasing energy poverty, food insecurity, business bankruptcies and recession. A well-known tool to protect energy consumers from energy price spikes, while at the same time contributing to the development of sustainable technologies, is Power Purchase Agreements. PPAs are long-term bilateral contracts for the purchase and sale of a certain amount of electricity, usually generated from renewable sources. The primary goal of this paper is to assess how the risk associated with PPAs has evolved between 2020 and 2023. It aims to examine whether, after the events in 2022, PPAs remain a robust solution that protects the off-taker from energy price spikes, ensures greater energy budget stability and enables savings. To achieve this, the probability of PPA prices being higher than market prices is evaluated, considering the changing market landscape. Furthermore, this paper intends to gain a thorough understanding of each risk related to PPAs and the best strategies for mitigating it, to maximize the protection of the off-taker. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The theoretical impact of the electric vehicle (EV) market share growth has been widely discussed with regards to technical and socioeconomic aspects in recent years. However, the prospection of EV scenarios is a challenge, and the difficulty increases with the granularity of the study and the set of variables affected by user behavior and regional aspects. Moreover, the lack of a robust database to estimate fast-charging stations' load curves, for example, affects the quality of planning, allocation, or grid impact studies. When this problem is evaluated on highways, the challenge increases due to the reduced number of trips related to the reduced number of charger units installed and the limited EVs range, which influence user anxiety. This paper presents a methodology to estimate the highway fast-charging station operation condition, considering regional and EV user aspects. The process is based in a block of traffic simulation, considering the traffic information and highway patterns composing the matrix solution model. Also, the output block estimates charging stations' operational conditions, considering infrastructure scenarios and simulated traffic. A Monte Carlo simulation is presented to model entrance rates and charging times, considering the PDF of stochastic inputs. The results are shown for the aspects of load curve and queue length for one case study, and a sensibility study was conducted to evaluate the impact of model inputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large discrepancies can occur between building energy performance simulation (BEPS) outputs and reference data. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are performed to discover the significant contributions of each input parameter to these discrepancies. Variance-based sensitivity analyses typically require many stochastic simulations, which is computationally demanding (especially in the case of the large number of input parameters involved in the analysis). To overcome these impediments, this study proposes a reliable meta-model-based sensitivity analysis, including validation, Morris' method, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) meta-modeling, and Sobol' method, to identify the most influential input parameters on BEPS prediction (annual energy consumption) at the early building design process. A hypothetical building is used to analyze the proposed methodology. Six statistical metrics are applied to verify and quantify the accuracy of the model. It is concluded that the cooling set-point temperature and g-value of the window are the most influential input parameters for the analyzed case study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microgrids have emerged as a popular solution for electric energy distribution due to their reliability, sustainability, and growing accessibility. However, their implementation can be challenging, particularly due to regulatory and market issues. Building smaller-scale microgrids, also known as nanogrids, can present additional challenges, such as high investment costs that need to be justified by local demands. To address these challenges, this work proposes an economic feasibility assessment model that is applied to a real nanogrid under construction in the Brazilian electrical system, with electric vehicle charging stations as its main load. The model, which takes into account uncertainties, evaluates the economic viability of constructing a nanogrid using economic indicators estimated by the Monte Carlo simulation method, with the system operation represented by the OpenDSS software. The model also considers aspects of energy transactions within the net-metering paradigm, with energy compensation between the nanogrid and the main distribution network, and investigates how incentives can impact the viability of these microgrids. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Charging load mobility evaluation becomes one of the main concerns for charging services and power system stability due to the stochastic nature of electrical vehicles (EVs) and is critical for the robust scheduling of economic operations at different intervals. Therefore, the EV spatial–temporal approach for load mobility forecasting is presented in this article. Furthermore, the reliability indicators of large-scale EV distribution network penetration are analyzed. The Markov decision process (MDP) theory and Monte Carlo simulation are applied to efficiently forecast the charging load and stochastic path planning. A spatial–temporal model is established to robustly forecast the load demand, stochastic path planning, traffic conditions, and temperatures under different scenarios to evaluate the charging load mobility and EV drivers' behavior. In addition, the distribution network performance indicators are explicitly evaluated. A Monte Carlo simulation is adopted to examine system stability considering various charging scenarios. Urban coupled traffic-distribution networks comprising 30-node transportation and 33-bus distribution networks are considered as a test case to illustrate the proposed study. The results analysis reveals that the proposed method can robustly estimate the charging load mobility. Furthermore, significant EV penetrations, weather, and traffic congestion further adversely affect the performance of the power system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a comparative analysis of the effects of short-range and long-range electric vehicles charging on transformer life. Long-range vehicles are expected to become more common in the future. They have higher battery capacity and charge at higher power levels, modifying demand profile. A probabilistic analysis is performed using the Monte Carlo Simulation, evaluating the transformer hottest-spot temperature and the aging acceleration factor. Residential demand is modeled based on real electricity measurements, and EVs' demand is modeled based on real data collected from a trial project developed in the United Kingdom. Simulations are conducted considering the influence of ambient temperature analyzing summer and winter seasons and several EV penetration levels. Results show the impacts caused by long-range vehicles are more severe because they charge at higher power levels, especially during winter, when residential demand is higher. For penetration level of 50% during summer, the use of long-range EVs brings a minimum equivalent aging factor of 5.2, which means the transformer aged 124.8 h in a cycle of only 24 h, decreasing its lifetime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal of this study is to optimize a company's capital structure by modelling and programming the required equations in the components of weighted average cost of capital. This process will be carried out in the programming language Python, and then Monte Carlo simulation will be applied to increase the number of combinations of debt and equity in the capital structure and obtain more accurate results on the Qatar gas transport company. Throughout various scenarios and outcomes, the study seeks to determine the ideal capital structure that reduces both the firm's weighted average cost of capital and the risk to which the Qatar gas transport company will be exposed. The suggested method offers a practical instrument for managers and investors to make well-informed decisions when they apply financial strategies to optimize the company's financial performance. Debt and equity are considered the main parts in the capital structure in every company, and if we can solve the problems connected to these two parts, we can optimize performance. The code of the programming language (Python) used in this study depends on logical discussion to compare different results. This research also will pay attention to the whole probabilities of debt and equity ratios in the Qatar Gas Transport Company. This research considers more variables in the analysis to obtain more accurate results about the firm's financial status. The results in this research show that the cost of capital in the Qatar Gas Transport Company will be reduced to 5% (currently 6%) if the percentage of debt and equity in the capital structure is changed to 79% and 21%, respectively. In comparison with the other 9999 components of capital structure, this ratio (79%, 21%) will be the optimal one. The scatterplot reflects that the more repeated values of weighted average cost of capital were located around the value of 5%. This fact can enable us to conclude that the minimum value of WACC is 5%, even though there are lower values of WACC than 5%, but at a lower frequency than that of values of 5%. The study's results are anticipated to introduce additional findings to help other authors to understand the mechanism of optimizing the capital structure and reduce the risk in the gas and oil sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electric vehicles (EVs) are becoming increasingly popular, and it is important for utilities to understand their charging characteristics to accurately estimate the demand on the electrical grid. In this work, we developed simulation models for different EV charging scenarios in the home sector. We used them to predict maximum demand based on the increasing penetration of EV consumers. We comprehensively reviewed the literature on EV charging technologies, battery capacity, charging situations, and the impact of EV loads. Our results suggest a method for visualizing the impact of EV charging loads by considering factors such as state of charge, arrival time, charging duration, rate of charge, maximum charging power, and involvement rate. This method can be used to model load profiles and determine the number of chargers needed to meet EV user demand. We also explored the use of a time-of-use (TOU) tariff as a demand response strategy, which encourages EV owners to charge their vehicles off-peak in order to avoid higher demand charges. Our simulation results show the effects of various charging conditions on load profiles and indicate that the current TOU price strategy can accommodate a 20% growth in EV consumers, while the alternative TOU price strategy can handle up to a 30% penetration level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor (CFETR), a superconducting magnetic confinement tokamak fusion reactor, will develop a high-performance torus cryopump to pump torus plasma exhaust gas. The inlet valve is one of the key components of the cryopump, and it is used to isolate the cryopump from the plasma for regeneration, to control the pumping speed of the cryopump, and to operate as a pressure relief valve in case of a failure, such as the cryopipe breaking inside the cryopump chamber. This paper presents a novel inlet valve. Ensuring that the design of the inlet valve meets the above requirements will be a challenge. In order to verify the reliability of the inlet valve, its critical components are analyzed and optimized by the Finite Element Method. The effect of the stroke of the inlet valve on pumping performance is then estimated by the Monte Carlo Method, and the pressure profile in the whole flow field is studied to predict the cryopump's behavior. Finally, the seismic capacity of the optimized inlet valve is analyzed, and the mechanical performance of the inlet valve is shown to meet CFETR design criteria. These design and analysis results will provide technical support and references for the development of the CFETR torus cryopump. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Engineering applications including food processing, wastewater treatment, home heating, commercial heating, and institutional heating successfully use unglazed transpired solar collectors (UTCs). Trapping of solar energy is the prime goal of developing an unglazed transpired solar collector. The UTC is usually developed in and around the walls of the building and absorbs the solar energy to heat the air. One of the key challenges faced by the UTC designer is the prediction of performance and its warranty under uncertain operating conditions of flow variables. Some of the flow features are the velocity distribution, plate temperature, exit temperature and perforation location. The objective of the present study was to establish correlations among these flow features and demonstrate a method of predicting the performance of the UTC. Hence, a correlation matrix was generated from the dataset prepared after solving the airflow over a perforated flat UTC. Further, both strong and weak correlations of flow features were captured through Pearson's correlation coefficient. A comparison between the outcomes from a linear regression model and that of computational simulation was showcased. The performance probability for the UTC was interlinked with correlation matrix data. The Monte Carlo simulation was used to predict the performance from random values of the flow parameters. The study showed that the difference between the free stream value of temperature and the value of temperature inside the UTC's chamber varied between 15 and 20 °C. The probability of achieving system efficiency greater than 35% was 55.2%. This has raised the hope of recommending the UTC for drying and heating where the required temperature differential is within 20 °C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

MnFe2O4 ferrite nanoparticle was synthesized via the sol–gel method, and structural, morphology and magnetic characteristics were investigated. X-ray diffraction analysis showed that the synthesized sample was in a single phase with a spinel-ferrite-like structure (space group Fd-3m). The scanning electron microscopy displayed homogenous spherical grains with an agglomeration of the particles. The chemical composition determined by energy-dispersive spectroscopy shows the absence of any impurities. To understand the role of magnetic interaction in MnFe2O4 spinel ferrites, the structural and magnetic properties of MnFe2O4 have been explored theoretically. Based on the first-principles methods via density functional theory and Monte Carlo simulations, the magnetic hysteresis cycle has been plotted. Using the generalized gradient and GGA-PBE approximation in the full-potential linearized augmented plane wave (FP-LAPW) method, the exchange coupling interactions between magnetic elements and local magnetic moment were evaluated. Furthermore, the theoretical magnetic properties of MnFe2O4 were found to match the experimental ones. They both revealed that MnFe2O4 is a soft ferromagnetic material. The theoretical curve of magnetization versus temperature indicates that the transition occurred at Tc = 580.0 K. This was also in good agreement with the experimental Curie temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current power systems are undergoing an energy transition, where technological elements such as distributed generation and electric vehicles through AC or DC microgrids are important elements to face this transition. This paper presents a methodology for quantifying distributed resource-based generation and the number of electric vehicles that can be connected to isolated DC grids without impacting the safe operation of these networks. The methodology evaluates the maximum capacity of distributed generation considering the uncertainty present in the electric vehicle charging of fleets composed of five types of electric vehicles. Specifically, the uncertainty is associated with the following variables: the home arrival time, home departure time, traveled distance, and battery efficiency. The methodology was applied to a 21-bus DC microgrid and a 33-bus DC network under different test conditions. The results show that higher penetrations of EVs and distributed resource-based generation can be introduced while guaranteeing a secure operation of the DC networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic feasibility analysis is essential in the decision-making process regarding investment in photovoltaic projects. Project profitability must be measured based not only on the costs and revenues, but also on the climatic particularities of the different locations. Therefore, performing simulations of technical and economic performance of photovoltaic models is fundamental. Thus, the objective of this study was to analyze deterministic and stochastic models of investments in two types of photovoltaic systems, one incorporated into the enterprise's architecture (a BIPV system) and the other, a conventional one, in different Brazilian locations, covering the predominant climatic factors in the country. The methodological proposal consisted of choosing a city in Brazil with each predominant climate type and compiling its data on irradiation, monthly sunshine hours, and tariffs of the electric power concessionaire, to simulate the electrical generation performance of the proposed photovoltaic systems and their profitability. For the economic analysis, the cumulative probability of positive Net Present Value (NPV) returns was obtained through deterministic simulations in all municipalities. Only the municipality of Pau dos Ferros-RN was chosen to perform 10,000 stochastic simulations, and its cumulative probabilities of positive NPV returns were obtained. In both models of photovoltaic technology analyzed and simulation logics, 100% of the NPVs were positive, indicating profitable cash flows in all scenarios. However, some municipalities obtained better results than others when the climate types favored sunny weather. Moreover, although all cases returned positive NPVs, the conventional model proved to be more economically attractive than BIPV system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Cretaceous condensate gas reservoir in Yakela is in a fan delta system in which the river channel swings frequently and the contact relationships between sandbodies are complicated both vertically and horizontally. Therefore, making the sandbody architecture clear is becoming the most urgent demand in locating the remaining oil. However, conventional well correlations and fine interpretation do not apply in this area due to the large-spacing of wells and the lack of reliable seismic data. In this paper, we analyzed the vertical characteristics of sandbody architecture including the type and thickness of architectural elements and their contact relationships based on well data, then simulated the lateral and planar distribution probabilities via a database containing a large number of dimension parameters from relevant architectural elements using Monte Carlo simulation. This simulation provides reasonable and efficient estimation of inter-well sandbody distribution. The workflow and data we present can be applied to similar clastic reservoir modeling and simulations, especially for areas with insufficient well and seismic data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Maintaining proper operation of adaptive protection schemes is one of the main challenges that must be considered for smart grid deployment. The use of reliable cyber detection and protection systems boosts the preparedness potential of the network as required by National Infrastructure Protection Plans (NIPPS). In an effort to enhance grid cyber-physical resilience, this paper proposes a tool to enable attack detection in protective relays to tackle the problem of compromising their online settings by cyber attackers. Implementing the tool first involves an offline phase in which Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate a training dataset. Using rough set classification, a set of If-Then rules is obtained for each relay and loaded to the relays at the initialization stage. The second phase occurs during online operation, with each updated setting checked by the corresponding relay's built-in tool to determine whether the settings received are genuine or compromised. A test dataset was generated to assess tool performance using the modified IEEE 34-bus test feeder. Several assessment measures have been used for performance evaluation and their results demonstrate the tool's superior ability to classify settings efficiently using physical properties only. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, it has been suggested that microgrids (MGs) can improve the resilience of distribution systems. However, predictions about future faults are uncertain. This makes calculating the exact value of the benefits of system resilience enhancement close to impossible at the time of MG planning. Therefore, this paper proposes a framework for MG planning, which focuses on resilience estimation. To consider the uncertainties of future failure events, the proposed method for estimating the resilience utilized the Monte Carlo simulation. In addition, an optimal scenario was estimated using a cost–benefit analysis and constraints on the expected value of resilience enhancement. In the case study, an actual MG installation at D-university was evaluated to obtain the optimal MG planning scenario. The results show that the capacity and installation locations of the distributed generators (DGs) impact the resilience enhancement. The proposed method can effectively derive the optimal MG planning scenario by evaluating the possibility of future operations based on the segmentation of both the system configuration and type of DG to improve the resilience of distribution systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Making cities smart represents a major potential for sustainable development, where both the quality of life and the economy improve. Implementing new and efficient solutions in a smart city involves a large spectrum of uncertainties related to the size and project complexity. Characterization and assessment of the variables uncertainty in planning methodology seem necessary to reach the best decision about the best approach to achieve favorable realization outcomes for planned projects. By including uncertainties in the planning, assessment makes it possible to calculate result uncertainties for all expectations, and project cost-effectiveness. In this way, planning can be improved, if the most important parameters of result uncertainties are identified, better defined, and controlled. This study describes a parameter uncertainty characterization methodology applied on the cost-benefit analysis of smart city development with a case study, focused on smart metering infrastructure. Parameter uncertainty characterization is performed based on its variable nature (epistemic and aleatory), time-dependency, and the available information. Cost-benefit analysis results are given as both point value and as uncertainties. Uncertainty is considered for 25 variables of investment and operating costs, and benefits estimation. The presented methodology in smart city planning provides a way to better identify the critical parameters for achieving the defined objectives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The contribution of renewable energies to the reduction of the impact of fossil fuels sources and especially energy supply in remote areas has occupied a role more and more important during last decades. The estimation of renewable power plants performances by means of deterministic models is usually limited by the innate variability of the energy resources. The accuracy of energy production forecasting results may be inadequate. An accurate feasibility analysis requires taking into account the randomness of the primary resource operations and the effect of component failures in the energy production process. This paper treats a novel approach to the estimation of energy production in a real photovoltaic power plant by means of dynamic reliability analysis based on Stochastic Hybrid Fault Tree Automaton (SHyFTA). The comparison between real data, deterministic model and SHyFTA model confirm how the latter better estimate energy production than deterministic model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ongoing study aims to establish a direct probabilistic load flow (PLF) for the analysis of wind integrated radial distribution systems. Because of the stochastic output power of wind farms, it is very important to find a method which can reduce the calculation burden significantly, without having compromising the accuracy of results. In the proposed approach, a K-means based data clustering algorithm is employed, in which all data points are bunched into desired clusters. In this regard, probable agents are selected to run the PLF algorithm. The clustered data are used to employ the Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. In this paper, the analysis is performed in terms of simulation run-time. Also, this research follows a two-fold aim. In the first stage, the superiority of data clustering-based MCS over the unsorted data MCS is demonstrated properly. Moreover, the impact of data clustering-based MCS and unsorted data-based MCS is investigated using an indirect probabilistic forward/backward sweep (PFBS) method. Thus, in the second stage, the simulation run-time comparison is carried out rigorously between the proposed direct PLF and the indirect PFBS method to examine the computational burden effects. Simulation results are exhibited on the IEEE 33-bus and 69-bus radial distribution systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The turnaround process constitutes an important part of the air transportation system. Airports often represent bottlenecks in air traffic management (ATM), thus operations related to the preparation of the aircraft for the next flight leg have to be executed smoothly and in a timely manner. The ATM significantly depends on a reliable turnaround process. Future paradigm changes with respect to airplane energy sources, aircraft design or propulsion concepts will also influence the airport layout. As a consequence, operational processes associated with the turnaround will be affected. Airlines aim for efficient and timely turnaround operations that are correlated with higher profits. This case study discusses an approach to investigate a new aircraft design with respect to the implications on the turnaround. The boarding process, as part of the turnaround, serves as an example to evaluate the consequences of new design concepts. This study is part of an interdisciplinary research to investigate future energy, propulsion and designs concepts and their implications on the whole ATM system. Due to these new concepts, several processes of the turnaround will be affected. For example, new energy storage concepts will influence the fueling process on the aircraft itself or might lead to a new infrastructure at the airport. This paper aims to evaluate the applied methodology in the case of a new boarding process, due to a new aircraft design, by means of a generic example. An agent-based boarding simulation is applied to assess passenger behavior during boarding, particularly with regard to cabin layout and seat configuration. The results of the generic boarding simulation are integrated into a simplified, deterministic and generic simulation of the turnaround process. This was done to assess the proposed framework for future investigations which on the one hand address the ATM system holistically and on the other, incorporate additional or adapted processes of the turnaround. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Domestic energy modelling is complex, in terms of user input and the approach used to define the model; therefore, there is an increase in the sources of uncertainties. Previous efforts to perform sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have focused on national energy models, while in this research, the objective is to extend traditional sensitivity analysis and use a local framework combining principal component regression and Monte Carlo Simulation. Therefore, in our method the total amount of the energy output's variance is decomposed, in relative terms, according to the contribution of the different predictor parameters. Our framework provides compelling evidence that local area characteristics are important in energy modelling and those national and regional indexes and values may not properly reflect the local conditions, resulting in programmes and interventions that will be sub-optimal. Furthermore, our uncertainty methodology uses a three dimensional integrative taxonomy and a concept map. The concept map identified concrete terminal causes of uncertainty within the taxonomic framework of sources, issues, sub-issues and a further abstraction of those quantities in terms of accuracy and precision. Understanding uncertainties in this way provides a possible framework for modellers, policy makers and data collectors to improve practice in key areas and to reduce uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rapid growth of thermostatically controlled loads, active power fluctuation and peak demand growth within an autonomous micro-grid become serious problems. This paper tries to suppress power fluctuation and shave peak demand for a micro-grid through optimizing domestic electric water heaters (controllable load). In this paper, domestic electric water heater models are first built to optimize power flow within a single water heater. Subsequently, the Monte Carlo method is proposed to simulate power consumption of a cluster of domestic electric water heaters. After that, the temperature state priority list method is presented to suppress power flow and shave peak demand for a given micro-grid. Optimization results show that the proposed temperature state priority list method can reduce peak demand by 12.5%. However, it has a wider active power fluctuation range and needs a longer reaction time compared with the simplified temperature state priority list method. In addition, the optimization results show that by increasing the number of controllable loads participating in load scheduling, active power fluctuation can be reduced and the maximum active power of the given micro-grid can be cut. However, to achieve this, about 1.2% of extra electrical energy needs to be generated by the external grid. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-voltage direct current (HVDC) grids are emerging, and their reliability has been an increasing concern for the utilities. HVDC grids are different from typical two-terminal HVDC transmission systems due to the loops in their topology, which makes it difficult to evaluate the reliability by conventional analytical methods. This paper proposes an innovative hybrid method to evaluate the reliability of meshed HVDC grids. First, steady-state models and reliability models are established for the components in HVDC grids, especially for converters and power flow controllers. In the models, virtual buses are introduced to represent the external AC connections to the HVDC grid. Then a hybrid reliability evaluation method is proposed based on an analytical approach and Monte Carlo simulation. One innovation of the paper is the application of an analytical analysis method to accelerate state evaluation in Monte Carlo simulation by skipping unnecessary optimization. The proposed models and methods are verified on two HVDC grids. Test results show that HVDC grids under most failure states (approximately 70%) tend to shed no load except on buses connected to faulted converters, and the application of the analytical method could promote evaluation efficiency significantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is increasingly becoming a common technique to assess the embodied energy and carbon of buildings and their components over their life cycle. However, the vast majority of existing LCAs result in very definite, deterministic values which carry a false sense of certainty and can mislead decisions and judgments. This article tackles the lack of uncertainty analysis in LCAs of buildings by addressing the main causes for not undertaking this important activity. The research uses primary data for embodied energy collected from European manufacturers as a starting point. Such robust datasets are used as inputs for the stochastic modelling of uncertainty through Monte Carlo algorithms. Several groups of random samplings between 10¹ and 107 are tested under two scenarios: data are normally distributed (empirically verified) and data are uniformly distributed. Results show that the hypothesis on the data no longer influences the results after a high enough number of random samplings (104). This finding holds true both in terms of mean values and standard deviations and is also independent of the size of the life cycle inventory (LCI): it occurs in both large and small datasets. Findings from this research facilitate uncertainty analysis in LCA. By reducing significantly the amount of data necessary to infer information about uncertainty, a more widespread inclusion of uncertainty analysis in LCA can be encouraged in assessments from practitioners and academics alike. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The quantification of uncertainties of various calculation results, caused by the uncertainties associated with the input nuclear data, is a common task in nuclear reactor physics applications. Modern computation resources and improved knowledge on nuclear data allow nowadays to significantly advance the capabilities for practical investigations. Stochastic sampling is the method which has received recently a high momentum for its use and exploration in the domain of reactor design and safety analysis. An application of a stochastic sampling based tool towards nuclear reactor dosimetry studies is considered in the given paper with certain exemplary test evaluations. The stochastic sampling not only allows the input nuclear data uncertainties propagation through the calculations, but also an associated correlation analysis performance with no additional computation costs and for any parameters of interest can be done. Thus, an example of assessment of the Pearson correlation coefficients for several models, used in practical validation studies, is shown here. As a next step, the analysis of the obtained information is proposed for discussion, with focus on the systems similarities assessment. The benefits of the employed method and tools with respect to practical reactor dosimetry studies are consequently outlined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Distributed generation (DG) systems are integral parts in future distribution networks. In this paper, a novel approach integrating crisscross optimization algorithm and Monte Carlo simulation (CSO-MCS) is implemented to solve the optimal DG allocation (ODGA) problem. The feature of applying CSO to address the ODGA problem lies in three interacting operators, namely horizontal crossover, vertical crossover and competitive operator. The horizontal crossover can search new solutions in a hypercube space with a larger probability while in the periphery of each hypercube with a decreasing probability. The vertical crossover can effectively facilitate those stagnant dimensions of a population to escape from premature convergence. The competitive operator allows the crisscross search to always maintain in a historical best position to quicken the converge rate. It is the combination of the double search strategies and competitive mechanism that enables CSO significant advantage in convergence speed and accuracy. Moreover, to deal with system uncertainties such as the output power of wind turbine and photovoltaic generators, an MCS-based method is adopted to solve the probabilistic power flow. The effectiveness of the CSO-MCS method is validated on the typical 33-bus and 69-bus test system, and results substantiate the suitability of CSO-MCS for multi-objective ODGA problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Part I of this work, a static voltage security region was introduced to guarantee the safety of wind farm reactive power outputs under both base conditions and N-1 contingency. In this paper, a mathematical representation of the approximate N-1 security region has further studied to provide better coordination among wind farms and help prevent cascading tripping following a single wind farm trip. Besides, the influence of active power on the security region is studied. The proposed methods are demonstrated for N-1 contingency cases in a nine-bus system. The simulations verify that the N-1 security region is a small subset of the security region under base conditions. They also illustrate the fact that if the system is simply operated below the reactive power limits, without coordination among the wind farms, the static voltage is likely to exceed its limit. A two-step optimal adjustment strategy is introduced to shift insecure operating points into the security region under N-1 contingency. Through extensive numerical studies, the effectiveness of the proposed technique is confirmed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When large wind farms are centrally integrated in a power grid, cascading tripping faults induced by voltage issues are becoming a great challenge. This paper therefore proposes a concept of static voltage security region to guarantee that the voltage will remain within operation limits under both base conditions and N-1 contingencies. For large wind farms, significant computational effort is required to calculate the exact boundary of the proposed security region. To reduce this computational burden and facilitate the overall analysis, the characteristics of the security region are first analyzed, and its boundary components are shown to be strictly convex. Approximate security regions are then proposed, which are formed by a set of linear cutting planes based on special operating points known as near points and inner points. The security region encompassed by cutting planes is a good approximation to the actual security region. The proposed procedures are demonstrated on a modified nine-bus system with two wind farms. The simulation confirmed that the cutting plane technique can provide a very good approximation to the actual security region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Combatting climate change necessitates a substantial global increase in renewable electricity capacity. Many low-income and lower-middle-income countries suffer from unfavorable green financing conditions. Fifteen of these countries possess substantial natural gas reserves. To overcome green financing constraints in such countries, we propose an integrated energy contract that awards a renewable energy project in parallel with an upstream natural gas project to interested energy companies. The state returns from the natural gas project provide a guarantee for renewable energy investments, reducing their associated risks. We conduct Monte Carlo simulations for each of the targeted countries after populating the input parameters for the upstream natural gas and renewable energy projects, including forecasting country-specific natural gas prices. When accounting for 10% of their existing natural gas reserves in the proposed contract, Nigeria, Myanmar, and Indonesia can achieve more than 60% of their 2030 renewable energy target capacity additions while countries with low access to electricity can significantly upscale their installed capacities. The guarantee mechanism provides protection levels exceeding 96% on renewable energy investments. The proposed contract enables the considered countries to increase their renewable energy capacities while inducing economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the increase in the penetration of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) all over the world, utilities should start considering their increased demand as part of their electric demand. Generally, the literature lacks works that consider the impact of transportation electrification on the reliability of the power system. Thus, this paper proposes a new mechanism for reliability assessment including BEVs, with both grid-to-vehicle (G2V) and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) modes. Three charging strategies: uncontrolled, controlled unidirectional, and controlled bidirectional are considered in this paper to model the interactions between the transportation and electric power systems. A dynamic stochastic consumption model for a fleet of BEVs is developed to be used in the reliability assessment for the distribution networks. This dynamic model takes into consideration the variability and uncertainty of different trip purposes, starting and ending trip times, as well as the corresponding battery consumption in weather conditions. Furthermore, it is composed of two sequential submodels: travel behavior and battery depletion. The first submodel considers trip-related information while the second considers battery-depleted energy. Simulation results on a benchmark test system show the negative impacts of uncontrolled charging on the power system's reliability. However, they also show that controlled charging can significantly reduce or mitigate these impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Power systems are increasingly affected by various sources of uncertainty at all levels. The investigation of their effects thus becomes a critical challenge for their design and operation. Sensitivity Analysis (SA) can be instrumental for understanding the origins of system uncertainty, hence allowing for a robust and informed decision-making process under uncertainty. The SA value as a support tool for model-based inference is acknowledged; however, its potential is not fully realized yet within the power system community. This is due to an improper use of long-established SA practices, which sometimes prevent an in-depth model sensitivity investigation, as well as to partial communication between the SA community and the final users, ultimately hindering non-specialists' awareness of the existence of effective strategies to tackle their own research questions. This paper aims at bridging the gap between SA and power systems via a threefold contribution: (i) a bibliometric study of the state-of-the-art SA to identify common practices in the power system modeling community; (ii) a getting started overview of the most widespread SA methods to support the SA user in the selection of the fittest SA method for a given power system application; (iii) a user-oriented general workflow to illustrate the implementation of SA best practices via a simple technical example. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the withdrawal of coal from power generation in the EU, mining companies in Poland are forced to adapt their production to the decreasing demand. Forecasting the volume of demand plays an important role in planning the volume of the mine's output. The demand for coal is constantly changing, with a downward trend. This article presents a method that allows to assess the impact of the variable demand on mine profits and on the volumes of sales of individual coal grades. The proposed method is based on the Monte Carlo simulation and on a solution consisting of the optimization of the production and sales of coal by the mining company (the SIMPLEX algorithm). By using the Monte Carlo simulation to forecast the demand, unlike other commonly used methods, a sufficiently large set of real situations that may occur in the future can be obtained. The results allow us to conclude the extent of desirable adjustment of the structure of the mine's production to the requirements of its consumers, as well as to predict in which direction these changes will proceed and with what probability. The usefulness of the developed method has been verified on the example of an existing hard coal mine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the increasing adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) such as wind and solar photovoltaics (PV), many distribution networks have changed from passive to active. In turn, this has led to increased technical and operational challenges such as voltage issues and thermal loading in high DER penetration scenarios. These challenges have been further increased by the uncertainties arising from DER allocation. The implication of DER allocation uncertainty in the planning process is far-reaching as it affects critical planning processes, including conductor size selection (CSS). Most reported CSS methods in the literature do not include DER allocation uncertainty modeling as they are mostly deterministic and are set out as optimization problems. The methods, therefore, lack foresight on future loading conditions and cannot be used in a CSS process for feeders with high DER penetration. This paper proposes a novel input–process–output stochastic–probabilistic CSS framework for distribution feeders with DERs. The efficacy of the proposed framework is demonstrated using a low voltage feeder design case study with varying PV penetration targets, and the performance compared to deterministic–active-based estimates from our earlier work. The proposed CSS method is well-suited to the sizing of conductors for future loading conditions considering DER allocation uncertainty and will therefore be useful to planners working on new electrification projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates a use case of robust anomaly detection applied to the scenario of a photovoltaic production factory—namely, Enel Green Power's 3SUN solar cell production plant in Catania, Italy—by considering a Monte Carlo based pre-processing technique as a valid alternative to other typically used methods. In particular, the proposed method exhibits the following advantages: (i) Outlier replacement, by contrast with traditional methods which are limited to outlier detection only, and (ii) the preservation of temporal locality with respect to the training dataset. After pre-processing, the authors trained an anomaly detection model based on principal component analysis and defined a suitable key performance indicator for each sensor in the production line based on the model errors. In this way, by running the algorithm on unseen data streams, it is possible to isolate anomalous conditions by monitoring the above-mentioned indicators and virtually trigger an alarm when exceeding a reference threshold. The proposed approach was tested on both standard operating conditions and an anomalous scenario. With respect to the considered use case, it successfully anticipated a fault in the equipment with an advance of almost two weeks, but also demonstrated its robustness to false alarms during normal conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The work presents a simulation-based Multi-Objective Optimization (MOO) framework for efficient production planning in Energy Supply Chains (ESCs). An Agent-based Model (ABM) that is more comprehensive than others adopted in the literature is developed to simulate the agent's uncertain behaviors and the transaction processes stochastically occurring in dynamically changing ESC structures. These are important realistic characteristics that are rarely considered. The simulation is embedded into a Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II)-based optimization scheme to identify the Pareto solutions for which the ESC total profit is maximized and the disequilibrium among its agent's profits is minimized, while uncertainty is accounted for by Monte Carlo (MC) sampling. An oil and gas ESC model with five layers is considered to show the proposed framework and its capability of enabling efficient management of the ESC sustained production while considering the agent's uncertain interactions and the dynamically changing structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deterministic load flow analyses of power grids do not include the uncertain factors that affect the network elements; hence, their predictions can be very unreliable for distribution system operators and for the decision makers who deal with the expansion planning of the power network. Adding uncertain probability parameters in the deterministic load flow is vital to capture the wide variability of the currents and voltages. This is achieved by probabilistic load flow studies. Photovoltaic systems represent a remarkable source of uncertainty in the distribution network. In this study, we used a Gaussian copula to model the uncertainty in correlated photovoltaic generators. Correlations among photovoltaic generators were also included by exploiting the Gaussian copula technique. The large sets of samples generated with a statistical method (Gaussian copula) were used as the inputs for Monte Carlo simulations. The proposed methodologies were tested on two different networks, i.e., the 13 node IEEE test feeder and the non-synthetic European low voltage test network. Node voltage uncertainty and network health, measured by the percentage voltage unbalance factor, were investigated. The importance of including correlations among photovoltaic generators is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper undertakes liquefaction analysis with simplified procedures with standard penetration test (SPT) data and cone penetration test (CPT) data obtained from an offshore wind farm in the Changhua area. The soil liquefaction resistance calculated by the SPT-based simplified procedure suggested by the Japan Railway Association was in agreement with the laboratory results. The CPT is widely used in the site investigation of offshore wind farms. However, Taiwan's registered professional engineers are still familiar with soil liquefaction analysis for offshore wind farms using SPT-based methods. Hence, a hybrid method that incorporates an SPT–CPT correlation into the New Japan Road Association (NJRA) method is proposed to evaluate the soil liquefaction potential for offshore wind farms in Taiwan. In the case studies of soil liquefaction with five groups of adjacent boreholes in Changhua's offshore wind farms, the hybrid method shows that the soil liquefaction potential with CPT data is consistent with the results calculated with SPT-based simplified procedures. To quantify the risk of soil liquefaction, Monte Carlo simulation is used to calculate the uncertainty of CPT–qc for estimating the probability of soil liquefaction with the hybrid method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extensive surfaces of land are currently under-utilized, marginal and/or contaminated (MUC) in many EU and neighbouring countries. In the past few years, scientific research has demonstrated that bioenergy crops can potentially render this land profitable, generating income for the local populations and, at the same time, reaching the goals of the new Renewable Energy Directive (REDII) without interfering with food production. The main purpose of this paper is to measure net economic returns by computing benefits and costs of low indirect Land Use Change (iLUC) biofuel production on MUC land from the perspective of both the private investors and social welfare. A standard cost-benefit technique was applied to analyse and compare net returns of different advanced bioenergy value-chains in monetary terms. Productivity, economic feasibility and green-house gas (GHG) emissions impact were assessed and considered for the economic analysis. The considered pathways were cellulosic or second generation (2G) ethanol from Giant reed (Arundo donax) in Italy, electricity from miscanthus, biochemicals from spontaneous grass and cultivated Lucerne (Alpha-alfae) with sorghum for biomethane in Germany, and 2G ethanol from Willow (Salix viminalis) in Ukraine. For the risk assessment, Monte Carlo simulation was applied. The results indicated that in Italy and Ukraine, although the production of 2G ethanol would allow positive net yearly margins, the investments will not be profitable compared to the baseline scenarios. In Germany, the work showed good profitability for combined heat and power (CHP) and biochemicals. On the other hand, investments in biomethane showed negative results compared with the baseline scenarios. Finally, the Monte Carlo simulation enabled us to identify the range of possible economic results that could be attained once volatility is factored in. While for Italy the likelihood of yielding positive results remains lower than 20 percent, case studies in Ukraine and Germany showed higher certainty levels, ranging from 49 to 91 percent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In preparation for the electric mobility technological transition in Colombia, an impact assessment of the electric power system is required, considering the increasing loading that must be able to be managed in the future. In this paper, a plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) charging simulation methodology is developed in order to dimension the impact of this type of load on power grids. PEV electric properties, user charging behaviors, geographic location, trip distances, and other variables of interest are modeled from empirical or known probability distributions and later evaluated in different scenarios using Monte Carlo simulation and load flow analysis. This methodology is later applied to the transmission network of Antioquia (a department of Colombia) resulting in load increases of up to 40% on transmission lines and 20% on transformers in a high PEV penetration scenario in 2030, increases that are well within the expected grid capacity for that year, avoiding the need for additional upgrades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Demand Response (DR) provides an opportunity for customers to reduce their loads during times of high prices and therefore to shave the peak loads. The power outputs of large-scale generator units can be predicted and controlled easily; therefore, the pricing and reliability of conventional power utilities can be assessed straightforwardly. However, the customer loads are very variable and difficult to predict and control; therefore, the integration of DR might cause uncertainty issues on pricing and reliability and is essential to be further investigated. A novel uncertainty model for load reduction is proposed in this paper. The probability intensities of load reduction are first estimated from the measured load reduction variations. A multi-state probability model is then proposed for load reduction and the Markov process is used to calculate the state probabilities. A stochastic analysis scheme using Monte Carlo simulation for pricing and reliability taking the DR uncertainty into account is then investigated. Several cases are designed to compare the effects of DR uncertainty. Simulation results show that the proposed uncertainty model can be integrated into conventional economic dispatch to precisely evaluate the DR uncertainty on system operation and reliability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale offshore wind farms (OWF) are under construction along the southeastern coast of China, an area with a high typhoon incidence. Measured data and typhoon simulation model are used to improve the reliability of extreme wind speed (EWS) forecasts for OWF affected by typhoons in this paper. Firstly, a 70-year historical typhoon record database is statistically analyzed to fit the typhoon parameters probability distribution functions, which is used to sample key parameters when employing Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The sampled typhoon parameters are put into the Yan Meng (YM) wind field to generate massive virtual typhoon in the MCS. Secondly, when typhoon simulation carried out, the change in wind field roughness caused by the wind-wave coupling is studied. A simplified calculation method for realizing this phenomenon is applied by exchanging roughness length in the parametric wind field and wave model. Finally, the extreme value theory is adopted to analyze the simulated typhoon wind data, and results are verified using measured data and relevant standards codes. The EWS with 50-year recurrence of six representative OWF is predicted as application examples. The results show that the offshore EWS is generally stronger than onshore; the reason is sea surface roughness will not keep growing accordingly as the wind speed increases. The traditional prediction method does not consider this phenomenon, causing it to overestimate the sea surface roughness, and as a result, underestimate the EWS for OWF affected by typhoons. This paper's methods make the prediction of EWS for OWF more precise, and results suggest the planer should choose stronger wind turbine in typhoon prone areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monte Carlo simulations are widely used for uncertainty analysis in the probabilistic safety assessment of nuclear power plants. Despite many advantages, such as its general applicability, a Monte Carlo simulation has inherent limitations as a simulation-based approach. This study provides a mathematical formulation and analytic solutions for the uncertainty analysis in a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). Starting from the definitions of variables, mathematical equations are derived for synthesizing probability density functions for logical AND, logical OR, and logical OR with rare event approximation of two independent events. The equations can be applied consecutively when there exist more than two events. For fail-to-run failures, the probability density function for the unavailability has the same probability distribution as the probability density function (PDF) for the failure rate under specified conditions. The effectiveness of the analytic solutions is demonstrated by applying them to an example system. The resultant probability density functions are in good agreement with the Monte Carlo simulation results, which are in fact approximations for those from the analytic solutions, with errors less than 12.6%. Important theoretical aspects are examined with the analytic solutions such as the validity of the use of a right-unbounded distribution to describe the uncertainty in the unavailability/probability. The analytic solutions for uncertainty analysis can serve as a basis for all other methods, providing deeper insights into uncertainty analyses in probabilistic safety assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A Monte Carlo simulation methodology is suggested in order to assess the impact of ambient wind on a vehicle's performance and emissions. A large number of random wind profiles is generated by implementing the Weibull and uniform statistical distributions for wind speed and direction, respectively. Wind speed data are drawn from eight cities across Europe. The vehicle considered is a diesel-powered, turbocharged, light-commercial vehicle and the baseline trip is the worldwide harmonized light-duty vehicles WLTC cycle. A detailed engine-mapping approach is used as the basis for the results, complemented with experimentally derived correction coefficients to account for engine transients. The properties of interest are (engine-out) NO and soot emissions, as well as fuel and energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Results from this study show that there is an aggregate increase in all properties, vis-à-vis the reference case (i.e., zero wind), if ambient wind is to be accounted for in road load calculation. Mean wind speeds for the different sites examined range from 14.6 km/h to 24.2 km/h. The average increase in the properties studied, across all sites, ranges from 0.22% up to 2.52% depending on the trip and the property (CO2, soot, NO, energy consumption) examined. Based on individual trip assessment, it was found that especially at high vehicle speeds where wind drag becomes the major road load force, CO2 emissions may increase by 28%, NO emissions by 22%, and soot emissions by 13% in the presence of strong headwinds. Moreover, it is demonstrated that the adverse effect of headwinds far exceeds the positive effect of tailwinds, thus explaining the overall increase in fuel/energy consumption as well as emissions, while also highlighting the shortcomings of the current certification procedure, which neglects ambient wind effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modern power systems must deal with a greater degree of uncertainty in power flow calculation due to variations in load and generation introduced by new technologies. This scenario poses new challenges to power system operators which require new tools for an accurate assessment of the system state. This paper presents an interval load flow (ILF) approach for dealing with uncertainty in power system analysis. A probabilistic load flow (PLF), based on Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), was also implemented for comparative purposes. The ILF and PLF are used to estimate the network states. Both methods were implemented in Python® using the IEEE 34-bus, IEEE 69-bus and 192-bus Brazilian distribution system. The results with the proposed ILF on the aforementioned benchmark test systems proved to be compatible with that of the MCS, evidencing the robustness and applicability of the proposed approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geothermal energy has been recognized as an important clean renewable energy. Accurate assessment of geothermal resources is an essential foundation for their development and utilization. The North Jiangsu Basin (NJB), located in the Lower Yangtze Craton, is shaped like a wedge block of an ancient plate boundary and large-scale carbonate thermal reservoirs are developed in the deep NJB. Moreover, the NJB exhibits a high heat flow background because of its extensive extension since the Late Mesozoic. In this study, we used the Monte Carlo method to evaluate the geothermal resources of the main reservoir shallower than 10 km in the NJB. Compared with the volumetric method, the Monte Carlo method takes into account the variation mode and uncertainties of the input parameters. The simulation results show that the geothermal resources of the sandstone thermal reservoir in the shallow NJB are very rich, with capacities of (6.6–12) × 1020 J (mean 8.6 × 1020 J), (5.1–16) × 1020 J (mean 9.1 × 1020 J), and (3.2–11) × 1020 J (mean 6.6 × 1020 J) for the Yancheng, Sanduo and Dai'nan sandstone reservoir, respectively. In addition, the capacity of the geothermal resource of the carbonate thermal reservoir in the deep NJB is far greater than the former, reaching (9.9–15) × 1021 J (mean 12 × 1021 J). The results indicate capacities of a range value of (1.2–1.7) × 1021 J (mean 1.4 × 1022 J) for the whole NJB (<10 km). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spectral induced polarization (SIP) is a non-intrusive geophysical method that collects chargeability information (the ability of a material to retain charge) in the time domain or its phase shift in the frequency domain. Although SIP is a temporal method, it cannot measure the dynamics of flow and solute/species transport in the subsurface over long times (i.e., 10–100 s of years). Data collected with the SIP technique need to be coupled with fluid flow and reactive-transport models in order to capture long-term dynamics. To address this challenge, PFLOTRAN-SIP was built to couple SIP data to fluid flow and solute transport processes. Specifically, this framework couples the subsurface flow and transport simulator PFLOTRAN and geoelectrical simulator E4D without sacrificing computational performance. PFLOTRAN solves the coupled flow and solute-transport process models in order to estimate solute concentrations, which were used in Archie's model to compute bulk electrical conductivities at near-zero frequency. These bulk electrical conductivities were modified while using the Cole–Cole model to account for frequency dependence. Using the estimated frequency-dependent bulk conductivities, E4D simulated the real and complex electrical potential signals for selected frequencies for SIP. These frequency-dependent bulk conductivities contain information that is relevant to geochemical changes in the system. This study demonstrated that the PFLOTRAN-SIP framework is able to detect the presence of a tracer in the subsurface. SIP offers a significant benefit over ERT in the form of greater information content. It provided multiple datasets at different frequencies that better constrained the tracer distribution in the subsurface. Consequently, this framework allows for practitioners of environmental hydrogeophysics and biogeophysics to monitor the subsurface with improved resolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modern power systems must provide efficient, reliable, and environmentally responsible energy. Recently, the inclusion of Microgrids (MGs) has allowed us to overcome some difficulties and face important challenges in this direction, especially related to the use of alternative energy sources. Increased and probabilistic demand, as well as limited energy supply, pose the need to evaluate the reliability of any distribution system (DS) when MGs are introduced. Here we reviewed and classified the state-of-the-art of reliability assessment (RA) in MGs. Initially, we contextualize RA in distribution systems. Next, each of the MGs subsystems components are introduced and the questions (1) why is it important to evaluate the reliability in Microgrids? (2) how do Microgrids influence the reliability of distribution systems? and (3) how does each of its subsystems influence the reliability of the Microgrids? are addressed. A total of 1395 research studies were published between 2002 and 2020. Using the PRISMA model, 147 met the inclusion criteria (71% correspond to research papers and 29% to reviews; 62% were published in journals, 34% were conference papers and 4% were books). The first study dates from 1971. Despite immense advances in MGs, we identified that (1) real test systems constitute an emerging trend; (2) although new MG configurations sound promising, the development and application of new RA techniques are a necessary step towards the identification of potential pitfalls of such architectures; (3) new RA methods or variations of the existing ones, whether analytical or simulation-based, are constantly being proposed, but their comparison for a particular DS, including MGs, are yet to be performed; and (4) more research studies are needed to assess how new control strategies and information and communications technology impact MGs reliability. Future lines of research could build upon these gaps to enhance reliability, especially when alternative energy resources are available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Computationally modelling a nuclear reactor startup core for a benchmark against the existing models is highly desirable for an independent assessment informing nuclear engineers and energy policymakers. For the first time, this work presents a startup core model of the UK's first Evolutionary Pressurised Water Reactor (EPR) based on Monte Carlo simulations of particle collisions using Serpent 2, a state-of-the-art continuous-energy Monte Carlo reactor physics burnup code. Coupling between neutronics and thermal-hydraulic conditions with the fuel depletion is incorporated into the multi-dimensional branches, obtaining the thermal flux and fission reaction rate (power) distributions radially and axially from the three dimensional (3D) single assembly level to a 3D full core. Shannon entropy is quantified to characterise the convergence behaviour of the fission source distribution, with 3 billion neutron histories tracked by parallel computing. Source biasing is applied for the variance reduction. Benchmarking the proposed Monte Carlo 3D full-core model against the traditional deterministic transport computation suite used by the UK Office for Nuclear Regulation (ONR), a reasonably good agreement within statistics is demonstrated for the safety-related reactivity coefficients, which creates trust in the EPR safety report and informs the decision-making by energy regulatory bodies and global partners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to increasing load and characteristic stagnation and fluctuations of existing generation systems capacity, the reliability assessment of generation systems is crucial to system adequacy. Furthermore, a rapid load increase could amount to a consequent sudden deficit in the generation supply before the next scheduled assessment. Hence, a reliability assessment is conducted at regular and close intervals to ensure adequacy. This study simulates and establishes the relationship between the load growth and generation capacity using the generation and load data of the IEEE reliability test system (IEEE RTS '96 standard). The generation capacity states and the risk model were obtained using the sequential Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. The load was gradually increased stepwise and is simulated against the constant generation capacity. In each case, the reliability index was recorded in terms of loss-of-load evaluation (LOLE). The recorded reliability index was thereafter fitted with the load-growth trend by the linear regression approach. A predictive assessment approach is thereafter proffered through the obtained fitting equation. In addition, a reliability threshold is effectively determined at a yield point for a reliability benchmark. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]