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Based on the total carbon emission data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2000 to 2020, this paper used non-parametric kernel density estimation and traditional and spatial Markov probability transfer matrix methods to explore the temporal and spatial dynamic evolution characteristics of carbon dioxide emissions in China and then used a super-SBM model to calculate the carbon emission reduction potential of each province. The results showed that: (1) from 2000 to 2020, the total carbon emissions in China showed an upward trend of fluctuation, from 1.35 Gt to 4.90 Gt year by year, with an annual growth rate of 13.10%. (2) The core density curve showed a double peak form of "main peak + right peak," indicating that a polarization phenomenon occurred in the region. (3) The overall trend of carbon dioxide emissions shifting to superheavy carbon emissions was significant, and the probability of transition was as high as 74.69%, indicating that it was challenging to achieve leapfrog transition in the short term. (4) Based on the principle of fairness and efficiency of provincial carbon emission reduction, mainland China's 30 provincial administrative regions can be divided into four types. Finally, the carbon emission reduction path is designed for each province. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To develop effective strategies to reduce CO2 emissions from electricity systems, this study accounted for carbon emissions from power systems (production, transmission, consumption) in Gansu Province based on life cycle theory. We used LMDI and SDA decomposition methods to analyze the driving force of carbon emissions and quantified the influence effect and action intensity of various factors on carbon emissions in corresponding links. Several results were found: (1) Direct carbon emissions during the stage of electricity production had the largest share of the entire electricity life cycle. (2) From the perspective of the cumulative contribution rate, electricity consumption and the electricity trade promoted carbon emissions in the stage of electricity production; the power structure, electricity efficiency, and fuel structure had opposite effects. (3) In the stage of electricity transmission, the higher the voltage level, the lower the net loss rate; high-voltage-level transmission lines effectively reduced the growth of implied carbon emissions. (4) Industrial restructuring and technological advances effectively offset the growth in carbon emissions due to population, economy, and electricity consumption. The results can provide a scientific basis for energy-saving and emission reduction policies in provincial government departments and the electric industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]