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Addressing environmental concerns alongside economic development and energy transitions is a challenge for all countries and effective policy making requires approaches that can balance all these concerns. In this paper, combining a range of modeling methodologies is proposed as a way of addressing these questions in an integrated manner. The choice of models to be used would depend on the specific characteristics of the system and region being studied. One possible combination of models is discusses in this paper for the specific case of India. The Integrated Modeling Framework (IMF) proposed combines three modeling approaches – i) index decomposition to estimate impacts of structural changes in the economy, ii) constrained optimization to estimate least cost fuel options for the power sector, iii) input-output analysis to estimate economic impacts. The model results indicate that the mode of investment for climate change mitigation is a significant determinant of the impact on economic growth, incomes, and income distribution in India. In some scenarios, higher investments in green energy negatively affects low income households significantly more as compared to other households. The paper also demonstrates how the IMF can be used to determine the reasons for and therefore alleviate the negative impacts.

Global climate change is a significant environmental problem. A major trigger of climate change is the excess carbon emissions. Based on 44 scenarios in the second generation of new dry cement technology systems, this paper establishes IPSO-BP model to forecast the carbon emissions peak of China‘s cement industry for 2016–2050 years. The results indicate that China's cement industry only implements capacity reduction plans and the second generation of new dry cement technology systems, so that carbon emissions can reach the peak before 2030. It is up to 19 years ahead of the carbon emissions peak of the basic scenario and the carbon emissions peak is reduced by 38 Mt. Moreover, this paper analyzes the technical combination of the earliest carbon emissions and the lowest carbon emissions. As for the earliest carbon emissions technical combination, China's cement industry carbon emissions will peak at 789.95 Mt in 2021. According to the lowest carbon emissions technical combination, China's cement industry carbon emissions will peak at 742.37 Mt in 2025. Accordingly, the conclusions will be helpful for making carbon emissions reduction policies for China's cement industry.

Brazil has an energy system with a hydrothermal characteristic that interconnects consumers and generators covering 98% of the demand for energy supplies. Most of the plants are concentrated in the southeast region, where the largest consumers and the largest population concentration are located. The expansion of this system, considering the hydroelectric contributions, will occur exploring the potentials located in the Amazon region. This analysis paper shows that the variations imposed by climate changes on some climatological variables create significant uncertainties about the power generation forecasts of the hydroelectric power plants to be installed in the Amazon, thus compromising the financial economic feasibility of these enterprises and also possibly compromising the expansion plans of the Brazilian energy system. The methodological approach uses information from various climate change scenarios and compares those with historical hydrological patterns and generation information. By exploring the characteristics of a large-scale hydrothermal system with high dependence on water resources, this paper provides valuable insights on how energy policy would address hydroelectric vulnerabilities and climate change. This analysis is focused on the Brazilian case but reveals important issues related to systems with hydro thermal characteristics.

Projections of building electricity consumption are used in multiple fields and for a variety of purposes, from energy utility investment decisions to global climate assessments. Existing approaches to modeling building electricity consumption span a range of structural methodologies, spatial resolutions, and temporal scales, potentially leading to divergent projections. This paper compares how two models with different structures and resolutions respond to a common set of population and climate drivers in the western U.S. The BEND model simulates hourly residential and commercial building electricity consumption at the county scale by weighting the results of simulations of thousands of representative buildings. In contrast, the projected electricity demand in GCAM-USA is determined for each state, year, sector (residential/commercial), and service (e.g., heating, cooling, and others), based on population, income, technology, energy prices, and average annual climate. This paper aggregates the two models’ results to a common resolution: annual residential and commercial building electricity consumption by state. Both models show similar responses to future projected population change and climate change, with population change having the larger impact between the two. Differences are primarily due to how the models capture changes in the aggregate energy efficiency of the building stock as it evolves over time.

Coal is the abundant domestic energy resource in India and is projected to remain so in future under a business-as-usual scenario. Using domestic coal mitigates national energy security risks. However coal use exacerbates global climate change. Under a strict climate change regime, coal use is projected to decline in future. However this would increase imports of energy sources like natural gas (NG) and nuclear and consequent energy security risks for India. The paper shows that carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) can mitigate CO2 emissions from coal-based large point source (LPS) clusters and therefore would play a key role in mitigating both energy security risks for India and global climate change risks. This paper estimates future CO2 emission projections from LPS in India, identifies the potential CO2 storage types at aggregate level and matches the two into the future using Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM/Local model) with a Geographical Information System (GIS) interface. The paper argues that clustering LPS that are close to potential storage sites could provide reasonable economic opportunities for CCS in future if storage sites of different types are further explored and found to have adequate capacity. The paper also indicates possible LPS locations to utilize CCS opportunities economically in future, especially since India is projected to add over 220,000 MW of thermal power generation capacity by 2030.

Udgivelsesdato: October Climate change response, including the implementation of the Kyoto targets as the first step, calls for technological innovation of future sustainable energy systems. Based on the Danish case, this paper evaluates the type of technological change necessary. During a period of 30 years, Denmark managed to stabilize primary energy supply, and CO2 emissions decreased by 10%, during a period of 20 years. However, after the introduction of the Kyoto Mechanisms, Denmark has changed its strategy. Instead of continuing the domestic CO2 emission controls, Denmark plans to buy CO2 reductions in other countries. Consequently, the innovative technological development has changed. This paper evaluates the character of such change and makes preliminary recommendations for policies to encourage the use of the Kyoto Mechanisms as an acceleration of the necessary technological innovation.

This paper provides an overview of the evolving climate-change strategies put in place by industrialized countries to combat climate change and to comply with their quantitative commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. It links past policy performance with the historical level of greenhouse-gas emissions and with indicators of policy performance, such as energy intensity and carbon intensity, between 1990 and 2000. It presents the emerging new and integrated method of climate-policy formulation and implementation based on a portfolio approach, where a mix of policies and measures are selected to help achieve the required emissions reduction. The paper outlines the portfolios of policy instruments used by the industrialized countries in their evolving climate-change strategies and in their approach to widening the scope and increasing the coverage of those policy instruments to all sectors and all gases.

The greenhouse effect is intrinsically global. Accordingly, effective responses require global coordination. While limited policies have been adopted, notably for phasing out chlorofluorocarbons, there is no clear consensus as to what to do about other greenhouse gases. In this paper, we survey attitudes and policy responses among the nations of the world. Public opinion surveys are consistent in showing that considerable sensitivity to environmental issues exists virtually everywhere. On the other hand, there is acute awareness that other issues, especially economic development, can conflict with global climate-change mitigation goals. In such a state of uncertainty there is a strong argument to be made for implementing policies which are good ideas independent of greenhouse-gas considerations. There is also good reason to expand research. What is feasible depends strongly on present and changing attitudes of the citizens of the world, and of their governments. It is thus critical to follow closely the evolution of attitudes. The kind of work summarized in this paper needs to be updated on a continuing basis, and the results made available routinely to the global policy community. We conclude our review with several recommendations for research designed specifically to reduce uncertainty about costs and institutional issues relating to responses to global climate change.

The global energy landscape is shifting rapidly, with a heightened emphasis on environmental protection. The oil and gas (O&G) industry is one of the biggest environmental polluters, accounting for 10% of all human-produced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and its products, including O&G, account for a further 33% of GHG emissions. Therefore, it is high time for the O&G sector to invest in decarbonisation to meet the global climate goal of zero emissions by 2050. This paper identifies 14 strategies to decarbonize the oil and gas supply chain (OGSC) from the extant literature. These 14 strategies pertain to the OGSC upstream, midstream, and downstream. Eight experts from the Iranian OGSC then rank these strategies. The Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory method and intuitionistic fuzzy sets are applied to explore the cause-and-effect relationships between decarbonisation strategies. A prominence relationship map is created for each stream in the OGSC to illustrate the influence of each strategy over other strategies. Results reveal that CO2 flooding technology in upstream, renewable energy integration for transport in midstream, and carbon capture, utilisation, and storage systems downstream of OGSC are the most effective for OGSC decarbonisation. The main contribution of this study is to bring forward a supply chain wide examination of decarbonisation strategies as well as the prioritisation of these strategies so that researchers and practitioners can focus on the most promising ones. If appropriately implemented, identified decarbonisation strategies will help the OGSC supply chain become climate-friendly and facilitate the attainment of net-zero CO2 emissions.

The impacts of climate change, largely fuelled by the consumption of fossil fuels and an unhealthy consuming lifestyle, are encouraging a wide and far ranging adoption of renewable energy sources. This is critical, and well received, for countries who are on the frontline of climate change, in particular Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and those with fragile, unique and complex natural ecosystems. While there has been research on the importance of renewable energy and on the increasing of its efficiency for bettering its adoption and resulting economic gain, there is however little literature on the design and its implementation in respect to the rich and fragile biodiversity of areas; which contribute greatly to local ecosystems, and even to liveability dimensions of fauna, flora as well as humans, regions and cities. To ensure optimal energy generation while preserving fragile ecosystems, a method for numerical Genetic Algorithm (GA) is proposed for wind farming optimization to determine both the sitting of wind turbines and the Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE). Optimal sites were identified in the small island of Mauritius and the model was applied on a complex terrain around an airport to identify optimal sites for the sitting of wind turbines while analysing the energy offset in terms of demand and supply of the area to encourage decentralised and more stable energy networks. Based on a set of parameters including local regulations and guidelines, 3 scenarios with a layout of 12, 24 and 36 wind farming sitting arrangements were proposed with a minimal impact on the fauna and flora; including the pathways of migratory birds. This paper is aimed at energy, urban planners and policy makers looking at sustainable energy planning.

Accurate forecasting of peak electricity load has long been an active area of research in electricity markets, and power systems planning and operation. Unanticipated climate-induced surges in peak load can lead to supply shortages causing frequent brownouts and blackouts, and large-scale socioeconomic impacts. In this paper, the climate sensitivity of daily peak load is characterized by leveraging advanced statistical machine learning algorithms. More specifically, a rigorously tested and validated predictive model based on the Bayesian additive regression trees algorithm is proposed. Results from this study revealed that maximum daily temperature followed by mean dew point temperature are the most important predictors of the climate-sensitive portion of daily peak load. Among the non-climatic predictors, electricity price was found to have a strong positive association with the daily peak load. Economic growth was observed to have an inverse association with the daily peak load. While the proposed framework is established for the state of Texas, one of the most energy-intensive states with geographic and demographic susceptibility to climatic change, the methodology can be extended to other states/regions. The model can also be used to make short-term predictions of the climate-sensitive portion of daily peak load.

It is now well established that solar energy is a reliable alternative way to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to mitigate climate change effects. In Morocco, solar energy investments are rapidly rising since 2009 and are expected to grow dramatically in the next decade. Site selection is a critical issue when large-scale solar plants are being planned. In this paper, the multi-criteria evaluation method is used to identify suitable sites to host Photovoltaic projects in southern Morocco. For this purpose, geographical information systems and analytic hierarchy process methods were combined to represent a high-resolution map that compares the potential of the studied region to host large-scale Photovoltaic projects. HOMER software was then used for modeling and simulating a 10 MW grid-connected PV system. The optimum scheme is analyzed to assess the economic feasibility in the most suitable site in the Souss-Massa region. The findings from this study confirm that 24.08% of the studied area offers suitable sites to host the Photovoltaic farms. The HOMER simulation has clearly shown that the grid-connected Photovoltaic system is beneficial in the long run, although its initial capital is higher than the grid supply only. Also, the cost of electricity generated from Photovoltaic panels is affordable.

In response to climate change, developing renewable energy has become a main way of energy transition in many countries. In terms of medium-and long-term, the development of renewable energy generation technologies, such as wind and solar, is certain to face uncertainties. More than this, power demand and other factors are also facing many complex uncertainties. However, traditional planning methods are not able to take various uncertainties into account. In the past, the serious underestimation of uncertainties existing in the development caused China’s a series of problems, such as renewables curtailment. Therefore, this paper firstly reviews the current status and the existing problems of renewable energy generation in China, and discusses the crucial uncertainty factors affecting medium-and long-term renewable energy planning; and then, the complex uncertainty models of power demand and renewable energy generation cost are built respectively, and the improved integrated resource strategic planning model is proposed; finally, by using the proposed model China’s wind, solar and biomass power development during 2016–2030 is studied from the perspective of big data planning, and the advantages and drawbacks of the improved method is discussed.

The current governing economic policies and models are favoring maximizing overall solar panel power production in an effort to mitigate climate change. Those were adequate for relative low share of solar power within entire energy mix. As the share of photovoltaic energy production rises, those principles directly cause high mid-day summer productions peaks and even negative prices for the electricity, when solar power is in abundance. This prompts for different approach for calculating solar technical and economic potential, which can offer valuable data for planning future energy sources. This paper uses a simplified model to evaluate prevailing self-sustainable rooftop solar electricity production for typical households and micro-grids in combination with battery storage (Solar Plus). The used model is nevertheless covering most important features of solar power production: the weather pattern, load curves and roof orientation and can be used either for single home-owners or small businesses. Typical applications and main benefits of the assessment are discussed and critically reviewed. The used model is suitable for use on single households or house clusters in scattered populated area and was developed based on extensive empirical knowledge.

This paper presents a new approach to incorporate climate damages in the BAU emissions baselines. The shared socio-economic pathways framework is used to inform country-level changes in the mean surface temperature for the climate projections associated with each scenario. The temperature changes are used to calculate the economic damages using empirical estimates of climate effects on GDP growth. Finally, an energy system model is used under the original socio-economic assumptions and the climate-damaged assumptions, illustrating the indirect effect of climate change in a country-level energy system. Mexico was chosen to exemplify this method. The results show a reduction of energy access and a slow down of technological transition in the energy sector under climate-damaged projections. It is concluded that greenhouse gas mitigation goals should be re-calibrated under cost-benefit analysis that takes into account the damages associated with future climates consistent with the baseline. Thus, the nationally determined contributions that state the emission goals of many countries could be closer to limit the temperature to 1.5 Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

In recent years, the use of renewable energies has been promoted in most of developed countries due to the climate change threat. In this scenario, the importance of geothermal installations has increased. This paper focuses on a heat exchanger present on a geothermal installation. The main aim is to achieve an accurate prediction system using the previous readings of some of the sensors located along the heat exchanger. Different time series modeling techniques were applied obtaining satisfactory results in the prediction of the heat exchanger state during one year. This prediction is made 1 h, 3 h and 6 h in advance. Also, a strong correlation between the sensor readings is concluded, offering the possibility to dispense some of them.

This paper presents an evaluation of energy supply strategies for Egypt’s power sector and identifies prospects to meet rising electricity demand while addressing energy security and low-carbon development issues. We apply the TIMES energy system model to examine Egypt’s energy policy goals as reflected in Egypt’s Vision 2030, and specifically: (a) targeted power generation based on renewable energy under two different scenarios; (b) targeted carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions’ mitigation toward low-carbon society development; and (c) constraints on natural gas production for power generation. The quantitative results from the model suggest a need for diversification from predominantly natural gas to a mix of renewable and conventional energy sources in order to improve energy security, reduce dependency on fossil fuels, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions, with the level of diversification changing with different policy options. Although total energy system cost is projected to increase the effects on fossil-fuel dependency, diversity of energy supply-mix, marginal electricity generation price, and GHG mitigation indicate that it may be wise to target promotion of renewable energy for power generation and develop a low-carbon society.

Major nuclear accidents are typically low-probability–high-consequence events. This paper focuses on weather and sea-level events that might affect the safety of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Flooding risks at Finnish NPP sites have been re-evaluated based on investigations of long-term changes and short-term variations in sea level, which has led to improvements in the protection against extremely high sea water level. Climate change projections indicated that 1000-year return levels of high enthalpy of the air would increase by 13–27% by 2100. However, no clear future trends were projected for the all-year-round probabilities of freezing rain at the NPP sites. Simulations of the spread of hypothetical radioactive releases during two sea-breeze cases, using weather input data at a remarkably high spatial resolution, demonstrated the impacts of coastal meteorological phenomena on atmospheric dispersion. Overviews of various single and combined weather and marine events that could possibly affect normal NPP operation highlighted the need to broaden the scope of future research. Special attention was focused on various aspects of uncertainty. According to the results, a more extreme weather or marine event corresponded to a larger uncertainty in its probability of occurrence in the changing climate.

Climate change will impact renewable resources and electricity demand, usually not jointly considered when designing future decarbonized power systems. This paper assesses how sensitive the Portuguese carbon-neutral power sector is to climate change by 2050 and what are the implications for the formally approved Portuguese Carbon Neutrality Roadmap. The future capacity factors for wind, solar and hydropower and electricity demand response to temperature are estimated for 22 climate projections along the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5. The eTIMES_PT optimization model is used to assess its combined impact on the cost-optimal configuration of the power sector by 2050. Results show that climate change lowers hydropower generation by 20% (in median terms). Improving spatial and temporal resolution and including future climate patterns, results also in lower cost-effectiveness of solar photovoltaic vis-a-vis the Carbon Neutrality Roadmap. While future climate does not impact onshore wind production, offshore wind power generation is positively affected, being a climate-resilient carbon-neutral option for Portugal. Annual electricity unitary costs at final users (excluding taxes and levies) only increase up to 4% with climate change, but seasonal costs have higher variability. This analysis highlights that climate change affects the cost-optimal annual carbon-neutral power sector and needs to be included in energy planning. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

Climate change, the imbalance between China's domestic energy supply and demand, and the success of the shale gas revolution in the United States have been the main motivators for China to actively issue shale gas development policies and explore its own path on this industry. This paper estimates three indicators of economic development: regional GDP, employment level, and the housing price index by using data from China's largest shale gas region, the Fuling District in Chongqing (a municipality in China). The analysis uses a Synthetic Control Method (SCM) model based on data from Fuling itself and other 34 counties of the Chongqing municipality over the period from 2005 to 2018. The results demonstrate that shale gas development has a significant positive effect on both regional GDP and employment level, with average impact growth rates respectively of 9.8% and 12.0%. By contrast, we find an insignificant effect of shale gas development on housing prices. These results support the case for further development of shale gas in China. Note that in some areas our results differ from existing literature, providing a reference for further research in this area.

This paper assesses the potential effects on the U.S. economy if the U.S. retreats from its pledge to reduce greenhouse gas emissions agreed under the Paris Agreement. We assume prior to withdrawal that the U.S. and other nations or regions would introduce climate change policies, such as emissions trading schemes, to meet their emission targets which were agreed in Paris. When the U.S. withdraws from the Paris Agreement, it will not adopt such a policy. We use a modified version of the GTAP-E model to examine the effects on the U.S. economy of its anti-mitigation action in a counterfactual framework. The findings suggest that a retreat from the Paris Agreement would increase the real GDP and real private consumption by 1.13% and 0.78%, respectively, in the U.S. Given such improvements at the macro level, the effects on the U.S. energy sectors from the withdrawal are substantial. Prices of energy would reduce considerably, particularly for coal, natural gas, and consequently the price of electricity (−17.8%). These three energy sectors would also experience considerable expansions when the U.S. withdraws from the Paris Agreement compared to its position if it honored its previously pledged committed targets.

In the current context, climate change has become an unequivocal phenomenon. Although it primarily encompasses change in temperature, nevertheless other weather variables such as rainfall, wind speed, evaporation and humidity can also be affected as a result of climate change. Addressing the impacts of climate change on electricity demand is essential for predicting the future demand. For example, cooling and heating requirements change significantly with respect to climate change that may result to the change in electricity load demand. In this paper, a backward elimination based multiple regression approach is proposed for analyzing the influence of climatic variables on load forecasting. A correlation analysis has been carried out using Pearson’s correlation coefficient to examine the interdependency between different climatic variables in the context of Sydney, one of the most densely populated cities in Australia. Regression based analysis has been performed to examine the relationship between per capita electricity demand and associated climatic variables. ‘Degree Days’ concept has been utilized to determine balance point temperature. Backward elimination based multiple regression is used to exclude non-significant climatic variables and evaluate the sensitivity of significant variables related to the load demand. Average change in future per capita electricity demand has been predicted using the proposed approach for the city of Sydney, Australia. Results indicate that the demand for Sydney will increase by 6% by 2030.

The following article conducts a meta-analysis to systematically investigate why Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) in the Fifth IPCC Assessment are illustrated with energy system reference cases dominated by coal. These scenarios of 21st-century climate change span many decades, requiring a consideration of potential developments in future society, technology, and energy systems. To understand possibilities for energy resources in this context, the research community draws from Rogner (1997) which proposes a theory of learning-by-extracting (LBE). The LBE hypothesis conceptualizes total geologic occurrences of oil, gas, and coal with a learning model of productivity that has yet to be empirically assessed. This paper finds climate change scenarios anticipate a transition toward coal because of systematic errors in fossil production outlooks based on total geologic assessments like the LBE model. Such blind spots have distorted uncertainty ranges for long-run primary energy since the 1970s and continue to influence the levels of future climate change selected for the SSP-RCP scenario framework. Accounting for this bias indicates RCP8.5 and other ‘business-as-usual scenarios’ consistent with high CO2 forcing from vast future coal combustion are exceptionally unlikely. Therefore, SSP5-RCP8.5 should not be a priority for future scientific research or a benchmark for policy studies.

Floating nuclear power stations (FNPSs) are being constantly developed due to their potential for broad application. Meteorological parameters are an important basis for heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) system design and energy estimation. However, existing HVAC meteorological parameters are mostly applicable to inland buildings and are becoming obsolete due to climate change. This paper aims to determine the outdoor design temperature and relative humidity for FNPSs. Raw weather data recorded over a 30-year period from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) were used. Considering nuclear safety requirements and energy conservation goals, the HVAC meteorological parameters are classified into safety class parameters for nuclear safety-related systems and non-safety class parameters for conventional systems. In addition, the area of China Sea and its vicinity is subdivided into 18 sea regions to reflect local climate characteristics. For a typical FNPS, the outdoor design temperature proposed is compared with that provided in several standards from the perspective of cooling/heating load. It shows that cooling and heating loads with safety class design temperature are 34.0% and 26.5% less than the maximum design cooling and heating loads, respectively. This study can serve as a reference for the determination of HVAC meteorological parameters of FNPSs.

Nowadays, facing serious energy problems and climate change, the study of energy performance and CO2 emissions performance of the main energy consumers and CO2 emitters, has been a hot topic in academe. By constructing a non-parametric global production technology exhibiting variable returns to scale and a non-radial directional distance function model, this paper thoroughly examined the energy, economic and CO2 emissions performance, and reduction potential of energy and CO2 emissions among the 18 main APEC members from 2005 to 2013. Three main conclusions were drawn: 1) the energy, economic and CO2 emissions performance varied with the economic level of the members. With exception of Canada and Australia, three kinds of performance associated with developed member appeared to be higher than those of developing members. 2) The developing members, especially China and Russia had greater reduction potential of energy consumption and CO2 emissions. 3) Energy and CO2 emissions performance were significantly negatively correlated to energy intensity and industrial structure, carbon intensity and industrial structure, respectively, with more than 0.504 correlation coefficient under 5% significant level. Reducing energy and CO2 emissions intensity, and the share of the industrial added value in total GDP may efficiently improve energy and CO2 emissions performance.

Increasing reliance on uninterrupted electricity supply against emerging threats such as climate change and cyberattacks calls for higher resilience of societies against power disruptions. A better understanding of social and economic impacts during these disruptions would be important for planning of resilience improvements. However, traditional energy system models rarely include these aspects. This paper presents an integrated framework containing a geospatial power system operation model, capable of emulating system component failures and restoration according to environmental conditions, with a link to spatial social and economic values such as population, economic activity, critical services and facilities. The framework was applied for analyzing the effects of uncontrolled and controlled power outages for two windy winter weeks in Finland. This case illustrated how controlled optimization could reduce the societal costs of such outage by shifting power shortage to regions where such costs are lower andin part by shifting the costs to other factors.

Low carbon transition agendas imposed by climate change claim for ambitious strategies grounded on non-biased information provided by energy and economic models. This is particularly relevant at local and regional scales, where environmental policies are practically implemented. To this end, this paper proposes a soft-linked model combining the EPLANopt energy simulation model with an empirical Input-Output model and applies it to assess the prospective impact of future scenarios in the Italian region of South-Tyrol. The proposed approach allows to perform scenario analysis of regional contexts with an accurate and physically detailed representation of the energy supply chain, while keeping track of the indirect and sector-specific economic and environmental impacts induced by a prospective policy action: the features and capabilities of the proposed approach are not fully covered by currently available methods and models. The EPLANopt model was setup and run for a selection of prescriptive scenarios, identifying optimal Pareto solutions in terms of minimization of economic cost of energy and carbon dioxide emissions. The results were then processed and incorporated into the Input-Output model, which allowed to evaluate the economy-wide economic and environmental impacts of such scenarios for different sectors. Results of the soft-linked model complement those of the EPLANopt model alone, as they reveal significant economic and environmental indirect effects that characterize the analysed scenario and are thus important to support decision-making.

In this paper we evaluate whether the US states have been able to achieve convergence in their carbon emission cycles which may be a key factor in taking a leap as regards the development of a US climate change policy. The use of a dynamic unobserved component approach and a time-varying parameter model enable estimation of the short run dynamics of energy convergence over the extended period 1960–2017. To date, this type of analysis has not received enough attention in the literature. The results reveal the existence of cross-state links in the fluctuations of CO2 emissions, although the degree to which a good part of the states are co-moving is weak. We also find that cyclical convergence patterns differ considerably in both the level and trajectories across the US states. The difficulties in increasing synchronization of the US CO2 emissions highlight the importance of the states to lead climate change mitigation actions. The present study presents valuable information of interest regarding the short-run characteristics in carbon dioxide emissions, for better understanding of factors affecting CO2 mitigation policies.

Numerous studies about climate change have emerged in recent years because of their potential impact on many activities of human life, amongst which, the building sector is no exception. Changes in climate conditions have a direct influence on the external conditions for buildings and, thus, on their energy demand. In this context, computer aided simulation provides handy tools that help in assessing this impact. This paper investigates climate data for future scenarios and the effect on energy demand in office buildings in Chile. This data has been generated in the 9 climatic zones that are representative of the main inhabited areas, for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080. Predictions have been produced for the acknowledged A2 ‘medium-high’ Greenhouse Gases emissions GHG scenario, pursuant the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The effect of climate change on the energy demand for office buildings is optimized by implementing the calculation procedure of ISO-13790:2008, based on iterations of its envelope and form. As a result, this research clarifies how future climate scenarios will affect the energy demand for different types of office buildings in Chile, and how their shape and enclosure can be optimized.

Energy systems, which include energy production, conversion, transportation, distribution and utilization, are key infrastructures in modern society. Interactions among energy systems are generally studied under the framework of energy trade. Although such studies have generated important insights, there are limitations. Many distant interactions (e.g. those due to the Fukushima nuclear crisis) are not in the form of trade, but affect energy sustainability. Even when distant interactions are related to energy trade, they are not systematically analyzed. Environmental impacts of trade are often not integrated with economic analysis of trade. In this paper, to identify and fill important knowledge gaps, we apply an integrated framework of telecoupling (socioeconomic and environmental interactions over distances). The framework of telecoupling, which is more comprehensive and cross-disciplinary than the energy trade framework, is a useful theoretical and methodological tool for analyzing distant interactions among coupled human and natural systems (including energy systems). Telecouplings widely exist in energy systems with various forms and link energy sustainability of different countries closely, so we proposed some methods for energy sustainability analysis under the framework of telecoupling. From the aspect of causes, a method is proposed to judge whether the telecoupling driven by economic factors is conducive to energy sustainability. From the aspect of effects, a method is proposed to assess whether an event is conducive to energy sustainability. The telecoupling framework presents opportunities for more profound and comprehensive understanding of energy sustainability.

The goal of this paper is to showcase a modelling exercise, conducted for the Republic of Macedonia, a non-Annex I country under UNFCCC and a candidate for EU membership, by making use of MARKAL energy system model. Baseline Scenario and three groups of mitigation scenarios have been developed until 2050, reflecting different types of targets with different levels of ambition regarding CO2 emissions reduction: (1) EU scenarios – end-year targets compared to 1990 level; (2) QELRC (Quantified Emission Limitation and Reduction Commitment) scenarios – a range of targets over the period 2021–28 and for each subsequent 8-year period, and (3) Baseline deviation scenarios – deviation compared to baseline emission level. The comparative assessment of mitigation scenarios, based on the cumulative emissions, cumulative total system costs and incremental specific reduction cost, has generated a basis for setting the national mitigation contributions and formulating the most appropriate national mitigation action plan.

© 2015 Elsevier Ltd. Both new and existing buildings need to be adapted to climate change, in order to keep providing a comfortable and healthy indoor climate. Preferably, the adaptation measures applied at the building level scale do not require additional energy (i.e. passive measures). Previous studies showed that passive climate change adaptation measures can have a positive effect on thermal comfort in summer and its shoulder seasons in non-air-conditioned residential buildings. In this paper, the effect of these passive climate adaptation measures - applied at building component level - on the cooling and heating energy demand of a terraced house is analyzed using building energy simulations. It is shown that for this particular case the required cooling energy can be limited to a large extent (59-74%) when external solar shading or additional natural ventilation is applied. In addition, it is shown that for a well-insulated terraced house the energy cost for heating is not strongly affected by the application of passive climate change adaptation measures. publisher: Elsevier articletitle: Analysis of the predicted effect of passive climate adaptation measures on energy demand for cooling and heating in a residential building journaltitle: Energy articlelink: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.11.036 content_type: article copyright: Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. ispartof: Energy vol:94 pages:811-820 status: published

Electric vehicles (EVs) are seen as one of the solutions for the problems facing the transportation sector including pollution problems, climate change, dimensioning of fossil fuel, and energy security. However, EVs rely on materials identified critical due to risks associated with their supply and environmental impacts. This paper aims at analyzing EVs in China, their requirement for 16 materials, and their national and global implications. The analysis is carried out using multi-level dynamic MFA model and 9 scenarios investigating EVs and batteries market share, their materials content and lifetime, and materials recycling. EVs materials impacts on coproduced materials, and energy, water, and CO2 emissions associated with materials production are discussed. Global metals availability is not expected to constraint EVs development in China, while several metals availability in China is expected to limit their growth. Significant increase in most metals production capacity is required. Extending EVs lifetime and using more than one battery reduce risks associated with REEs and increase those associated with other metals. Metals stock in use is expected to be significant compared to current Chinese reserves. EVs development in China has significant implications on resources availability, mainly REEs and graphite, for other world regions and other sectors.

Renewable energies are deployed worldwide to mitigate climate change and push power systems towards sustainability. However, the weather-dependent nature of renewable energy sources often hinders their integration to national grids. Combining different sources to profit from beneficial complementarity has often been proposed as a partial solution to overcome these issues. This paper introduces a novel method for quantifying total temporal energetic complementarity between three different variable renewable sources, based on well-known mathematical techniques: correlation coefficients and compromise programming. It has the major advantage of allowing the simultaneous assessment of partial and total complementarity. The method is employed to study the complementarity of wind, solar and hydro resources on different temporal scales in a region of Poland. Results show that timescale selection has a determinant impact on the total temporal complementarity., Comment: Submitted for peer review

Energy consumption in the residential sector has grown significantly over the last 30 years. In recent years, a large number of authors have analysed the determinants of behaviour related to climate change. However, in this paper, referring to the behaviour and consumption level, we focused on energy consumption and direct household CO2 emissions. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the determinants of energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the Lithuanian residential sector. Energy consumption was evaluated referring to the residential bills based on the official energy prices; CO2 emission equivalent was calculated employing the emission factors for separate energy resources. The regression analysis revealed that attitudes were significant only in the case of energy consumption for heating, but not in the case of heating-related CO2, which depended solely on the housing area, the type of fuel, and home heating (centralized). Meanwhile, concerning electricity consumption and related CO2 emissions, the pro-environmental behaviour was one of the factors along with the type of house, the number of children, family size, and gender. Results indicated that a complex of different factors needed to be considered to increase energy savings and CO2 reduction inthe residential sector regarding heating and electricity consumption.

If the planet's atmospheric CO2eq concentration is to be limited to 450 ppm by the middle of this century, what limitation does this place on the size of dwellings and residential buildings energy consumption? This paper aims to answer and discuss these questions. In the analysis, the world is subdivided into different regions according to climate and socioeconomic characteristics. We have collected demographic statistics regarding housing and residential building energy consumption in 31 countries and 14 provinces/municipalities. Scenarios analyses include energy availability, dwelling size development and technology expansion. The results indicate that: 1) there is a limitation on dwelling space and energy consumption within the 450 ppm CO2eq constraint. 2) There is a trade-off on consumptions between dwelling size and energy. Most regions have a potential to increase dwelling space in the future, if residents can reduce the residential energy consumption. 3) Zero energy building technology is essential to reducing residential building energy consumption, especially in the USA, Japan and the emerging economics. 4) The requirement of zero energy buildings is more urgent in the emerging economies, especially China and Middle East than the OECD.

This paper presents the analysis of the impact of weather conditions on the consumption of electricity in the City of Kragujevac (the Republic of Serbia) during the seven-year period from 2006 to 2012. It points out the mean daily air temperature as the most influential climate (meteorological) parameter, and gives an overview of deviations from the mean values compared to the reference period. Increases and decreases in the power consumption depending on the deviations of the mean daily temperature from the normal (average) values are also indicated. In periods of strong and long-lasting cold spells in the winter months, there is increased power consumption as a result of heating in residential and office buildings. During extremely hot and long summer periods, there is also a tendency of increasing electricity consumption because of home air conditioning. In the transitional seasons, especially when the remote heating system is not active, sudden and relatively long periods of cold weather also have a significant influence on increases in the electricity consumption. A timely and accurate weather forecast can certainly help prevent the electrical power system overload and reduce the risk of possible power system damages.

The issue of China's CO 2 emissions has become a major focus of the growing concerns, globally, for its potential impact on Climate Change. In this paper, supply chain paths that drive changes in life cycle CO 2 emissions in China from 1992 to 2007 were identified, based on SPD (structural path decomposition) analysis of China's input–output tables and energy demand changes, over this study period. The study period was divided into three stages: 1992–1997, 1997–2002 and 2002–2007. The influence on changes of CO 2 emissions derived from final demand was divided into six factors: direct CO 2 emission intensity ( e ); industrial structure ( A ); product structure of final demand ( ψ ); category composition of final demand (Δ); per capita final demand ( Y ), and population ( P ). The detailed analysis reveals that direct CO 2 emissions intensity ( e ) was the dominant factor in reducing China's CO 2 emissions, while per capita final demand ( Y ) was the major single factor increasing the emissions. The largest influence on CO 2 emissions from the viewpoint of supply chain paths was found to be “Chemical industry → exports”. The supply chain paths with high emissions at different stages during the study were “Metal smelting → exports”, “Nonmetallic products → fixed capital” and “Metal smelting → fixed capital”, respectively.

In recent years there have been several heat waves affecting the use of thermoelectric power plants, e.g. in Europe and the U.S. In this paper the linkage between hydro-climatic conditions and possible electricity generation restrictions is described. The coupling of hydrological models and a power plant model is presented. In this approach each power plant is considered separately with its technical specifications. Also environmental regulations, e.g. permissible rise in the cooling water temperature, are considered for the respective power plant. The hydrological models developed to simulate river runoff and water temperature are also site specific. The approach presented is applied to Krummel nuclear power plant in Germany. Analysed are the uncertainties with regard to electricity generation restrictions on account of climatic developments and corresponding higher water temperatures and low flows. Overall, increased water temperatures and declining river runoff lead to more frequent and more severe generation restrictions. It is concluded that the site-specific approach is necessary to reliably simulate power plants water demand, river runoff and water temperature. Using a simulation time step of one day, electricity generation restrictions are significantly higher than for simulations at monthly time step.

Climate change is of great concern for society today. Manufacturing industries and construction account for approximately 20% of global CO2 emissions and, consequently, it is important that this sector investigate options to reduce its CO2 emissions. One option could be to substitute fossil fuels with renewable alternatives. This paper describes a case study in which four future energy market scenarios predicting 2030 were used to analyse whether it would be profitable for a steel plant to produce bio-SNG (bio-synthetic natural gas) in a biomass gasifier and to substitute LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) with bio-SNG as fuel in reheating furnaces. The effects on global CO2 emissions were analysed from a perspective in which biomass is considered a limited resource. The results from the analysis show that investment in a biomass gasifier and fuel conversion would not be profitable in any of the scenarios. Depending on the scenario, the production cost for bio-SNG ranged between 22 and 36 EUR/GJ. Fuel substitution would reduce global CO2 emission if the marginal biomass user is a producer of transportation fuel. However, if the marginal user of biomass is a coal power plant with wood co-firing, the result would be increased global CO2 emissions

The majority of thermal power plants of more than 300 MW use river water for cooling purposes. Increasing water and air temperatures due to climate change can significantly impact the efficiency and the power production of these power plants. In this paper we analyse these impacts by modelling selected German thermal power plant units and their respective cooling systems through dynamic simulation taking into account legal thresholds for heat discharges to river water together with climate data projections (SRES scenarios A1B, A2, and B1). Possible output and efficiency reductions in the future (2011–2040 and 2041–2070) are quantified for thermal power plants with once-through (OTC) and closed-circuit (CCC) cooling systems under current legislative framework. The model validation showed that the chosen System Dynamics approach is appropriate to analyse impacts of climate change on thermal power units. The model results indicate lowest impacts for units with CCC systems: The mean trend for CCC for the A1B scenario (2011–2070) is expected to be −0.10 MW/a and −0.33 MW/a for an OTC system. On a daily basis, the power output of all considered OTC units is reduced down to 66.4% of the nominal capacity, for a single unit even down to 32%.

Energy and climate change is a key priority issue mentioned by the Mediterranean Strategy for Sustainable Development (MSSD) which explicitly claims that “Control, reduce or stabilize GhG (Greenhouse Gas) emissions” is a crucial target for Mediterranean countries. This paper uses the integrated assessment model IFs (International Futures) to implement a scenario analysis to investigate the mitigation potential of Mediterranean regions. It analyzes if the Mediterranean regions will be able to reach the MSSD climate change target and recommends amendments of the MSSD to implement with effectiveness climate change policies in the Mediterranean area.

Although previous climate change research has documented the effects of linking mitigation and adaptation in the energy sector, there is still a lack of integrated assessment, particularly at national level. This paper may contribute to fill this gap, identifying the interactions between climate change and the energy demand in Macedonia. The analyses are conducted using the MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation)-Macedonia model, with a focus on energy demand in commercial and residential sectors (mainly for heating and cooling). Three different cases are developed: 1) Base Case, which gives the optimal electricity production mix, taking into account country's development plans (without climate change); 2) Climate Change Damage Case, which introduces the climate changes by adjusting the heating and cooling degree days inputs, consistent with the existing national climate scenarios; and 3) Climate Change Adaptation Case, in which the optimal electricity generation mix is determined by allowing for endogenous capacity adjustments in the model. This modeling exercise will identify the changes in the energy demand and in electricity generation mix in the Adaptation Case, as well as climate change damages and benefits of the adaptation.

Wind power has been the fastest growing form of renewable energy for the last few years. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, 80% of the world's energy supply could come from renewable sources by 2050 and wind energy will play a major role in electricity generation in 2050. In the growing market for wind energy and the limited available space onshore, the development of offshore wind farms become more and more important. With a rapid development of technology, the offshore wind power projects have become a trend in many countries like Europe now. Therefore, this paper aims to provide a brief overview of the current development status of offshore wind power in different countries and also explore the technical, economic and environmental issues around its development. Without doubt, offshore wind will lead technology advances in the wind sector in a near future as it seeks to exploit resources further offshore.

For India, sustainable strategy means one that is economically, environmentally and socially sustainable. This calls for rapid economic growth to deal with poverty and human development. However, the relatively meagre energy resources of the country pose a huge challenge. At the same time concern for climate change has raised the bar on the use of the one energy resource that India has in some abundance, namely coal. India's strategy for sustainable development has to explore all options of reducing energy needs, enhancing efficiency of use of conventional energy resources and develop new and renewable sources. The paper identifies various technical options, their potential roles and alternative policy measures to realize them in a cost effective manner. Even for the same objectives different policy instruments are available and how one chooses a particular instrument is often critical for the success. Self-implementing incentive compatible policy that does not create vested interests that would get entrenched should be preferred.

Energy systems can be vulnerable to climate change. This paper summarizes the contribution of their authors to a few strategic studies, research workshops, development forum and international conferences related to Climate and Energy. It presents a review of the impacts that climate change may have throughout the energy chain and identifies current knowledge gaps and areas for future research development. One of the greatest challenges is how to assess impacts which may occur as a consequence of the projected increase in the intensity of extreme weather events: the majority of current methodologies rely on past experience but this may not be a sufficiently good guide for planning and operational activities in the coming decades. Also, climate impact assessments on energy planning and operation need to take into account a greater number of scenarios, as well as investigate impacts on particular energy segments. Therefore, we identify energy segments for which little climate impact research has been conducted. Finally, because climate impact assessment for energy systems is a relatively new research field, it is expected that methodological developments will increase in the near future with a consequent broadening of the knowledge base on the subject.

With China’s rapid economic development and urbanization process, cities are facing great challenges for tackling anthropogenic climate change. In this paper we present features, trajectories and driving forces for energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from four Chinese mega-cities (Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Chongqing) during 1995–2009. First, top-down GHG inventories of these four cities, including direct emissions (scope 1) and emissions from imported electricity (scope 2) are presented. Then, the driving forces for the GHG emission changes are uncovered by adopting a time serial LMDI decomposition analysis. Results indicate that annual GHG emission in these four cities exceeds more than 500 million tons and such an amount is still rapidly growing. GHG emissions are mainly generated from energy use in industrial sector and coal-burning thermal power plants. The growth of GHG emissions in four mega-cities during 1995–2009 is mainly due to economic activity effect, partially offset by improvements in carbon intensity. Besides, the proportion of indirect GHG emission from imported energy use (scope 2) keeps growing, implying that big cities are further dependent on energy/material supplies from neighboring regions. Therefore, a comprehensive consideration on various perspectives is needed so that different stakeholders can better understand their responsibilities on reducing total GHG emissions.

The residential sector plays an important role in the energy system of developing countries. In this paper we introduce a bottom up simulation model for household energy use. The model describes energy demand for several end-use functions based on a set of physical drivers, such as floor space and heating degree days. The model also recognizes different population groups: i.e. urban and rural households, each distinguishing five income quintiles. The model is applied to analyze possible future developments of residential energy use in five developing world regions: India, China, South East Asia, South Africa and Brazil. We find that in each of these regions cooking is currently the main end-use function, but that other functions, such as space heating, cooling and appliances become more important. At the same time, energy consumption slowly shifts towards modern fuels. The model also shows that climate policy can reduce residential energy emissions, but could also slow down the energy transition away from traditional fuels in low income classes. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

This paper makes an assessment of the exergy loss of the main minerals produced in the world throughout the 21st century, namely coal, oil, natural gas, iron, aluminium and copper. The reason for using the exergy analysis as an assessment tool is because it takes into account the main physical features that make a natural resource valuable: concentration, composition and quantity. Furthermore, using the same unit of measurement (energy) means all minerals considered can be compared and added. The future depletion degree of mineral reserves has been predicted with the help of five different scenarios. The first scenario assumes that production of all commodities will follow the well-known Hubbert's bell-shaped curve. The other four models are based on the (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) for fossil fuel consumption and the Hubbert peak model for non-fuel minerals. The results of this study indicate that there might not be enough available resources to satisfy the predicted future mineral demand.

The operation performance of building cooling, heating and power (BCHP) system is dependent on the seasonal atmospheric conditions. This paper presents the environmental impact models of separation production (SP) system and BCHP system respectively. Three most important energy-related environmental issues, global warming, acid precipitation and stratospheric ozone depletion, are considered to evaluate the environmental impact of BCHP system for a commercial building located in five climate zones, China. Because the global emissions of BCHP system are related to the central power plant that provides the additional electricity to building, the environmental impacts by coal-fired and gas-fired power plants are compared and discussed. The results indicate that the emission reduction potential of BCHP system over SP system in hot summer zone and mild zone is larger than in severe cold zone when the coal-fired power plant is used. Contrarily, BCHP system in severe cold zone reduces more emissions than in hot summer zone when the gas-fired power plant provides the additional electricity.