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Abstract Addressing environmental concerns alongside economic development and energy transitions is a challenge for all countries and effective policy making requires approaches that can balance all these concerns. In this paper, combining a range of modeling methodologies is proposed as a way of addressing these questions in an integrated manner. The choice of models to be used would depend on the specific characteristics of the system and region being studied. One possible combination of models is discusses in this paper for the specific case of India. The Integrated Modeling Framework (IMF) proposed combines three modeling approaches – i) index decomposition to estimate impacts of structural changes in the economy, ii) constrained optimization to estimate least cost fuel options for the power sector, iii) input-output analysis to estimate economic impacts. The model results indicate that the mode of investment for climate change mitigation is a significant determinant of the impact on economic growth, incomes, and income distribution in India. In some scenarios, higher investments in green energy negatively affects low income households significantly more as compared to other households. The paper also demonstrates how the IMF can be used to determine the reasons for and therefore alleviate the negative impacts. Highlights • An Integrated Modeling Framework (IMF) combining three modeling methods is presented. • IMF built for India, but applicable for other developing countries also. • IMF useful to study balance between energy, environment, economy, and equity. • Negative trade-off between equity and renewable energy transition in some scenarios. • IMF useful for identifying ways to alleviate the negative trade-off. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The role of energy transition amidst the energy crisis and how policymakers can drive down emissions while focusing on energy security are critical. Given the geo-political situation, energy crisis volatility, energy shortage and climate change all affect the green transition and the short-term priorities for energy companies and policymakers. Energy security is not an isolated issue but has widespread implications as various sectors depend on energy supply to function properly. Governments around the world are faced with this trilemma, how to balance energy security with energy sustainability while also considering energy affordability. Sustainability has been in focus for about a decade. However, energy security is suddenly becoming one of the most important priorities that policymakers need to consider. Unfortunately, the renewable energy infrastructure is not yet ready to replace the growing volume of energy demand from hydrocarbon, which the world has been dependent on. This means, for now, a surge in energy generation through hydrocarbon to meet the existing energy demand deficit. However, it is important not to lose focus on the challenge of energy sustainability and climate change adaption and mitigation. Where trends like carbon capture and storage; solar, wind, hydro, green hydrogen, etc.; renewable energy infrastructure and integrations, with supply chain and engineering services consideration [in aspect for the growing market in this space] need better attention with regards to investment and full-scale implementation. This paper aims to analyze this 1st energy crisis of green transition with a priori on energy poverty with consideration of major influences and associated impacts. Furthermore, it proposes a specific framework for inclusive investigations, which considers the entire energy ecosystem with consideration of major influences, to enable the policymakers to better drive the green transition. This involves formulating energy policies that are not entirely conservative towards renewable energy sources but instead promote investments in both green and relatively more environmentally benign energy sources compared to high emission hydrocarbons. In this regard, this paper renders exhaustive prospects and recommendations. • The nexus between energy transition, energy poverty and their impacts are investigated. • Influence of climate change, COVID-19, geo-politics, and energy infrastructure on energy transition. • Exhaustive prospects and recommendations are rendered. • Requirement for inclusive investigations and recognition of energy poverty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine renewable energies can play a key role by reducing the dependency on fossil fuels and, therefore, mitigating climate change. Among them, it is expected that wave energy will experience rapid growth in the upcoming decades. Thus, it is important to know how wave climate will change and how suitable the wave energy converters (WECs) will be to the new wave conditions. This paper aims to evaluate the capability of four different WECs—a WaveRoller type device (WRTD), Atargis, AquaBuoy and RM5—to extract wave energy on the Northwest coast of Spain (NWCS). The analysis was performed using the high-resolution wave data obtained from the Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) model over the near future winters (2026–2045). The energy output (P E), the power load factor (ε), the normalized capture width (NC w) and the operational time (OT) were analyzed. According to these parameters, among the devices that work for intermediate-deep waters, Atargis would be the best option (P E = 1400 ± 56 kW, ε = 55.4 ± 2.2%, NC w = 35.5 ± 4.1% and OT = 84.5 ± 3.3%). The WRTD would also be a good option for shallow nearshore areas with P E = 427 ± 248 kW, ε = 12.8 ± 7.4%, NC w = 48.9 ± 9.6% and OT = 88.7 ± 18.9%. A combination of Atargis and WRTDs is proposed to make up the future wave energy farms on the NWCS. • Dynamical downscaling using SWAN to simulate near-shore wave conditions. • Wave energy converters suitability is analyzed in the context of climate change. • Atargis is the most suitable device to future sea conditions in intermediate waters. • WaveRoller type devices can constitute future wave farms for shallow waters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract In recent years, the use of renewable energies has been promoted in most of developed countries due to the climate change threat. In this scenario, the importance of geothermal installations has increased. This paper focuses on a heat exchanger present on a geothermal installation. The main aim is to achieve an accurate prediction system using the previous readings of some of the sensors located along the heat exchanger. Different time series modeling techniques were applied obtaining satisfactory results in the prediction of the heat exchanger state during one year. This prediction is made 1 h, 3 h and 6 h in advance. Also, a strong correlation between the sensor readings is concluded, offering the possibility to dispense some of them. Highlights • The performance prediction of a geothermal heat exchanger can improve its efficiency. • From real measurements, the system is modeled with intelligent techniques. • The models predict the state of the installation up to 6 h in advance. • A strong correlation between different sensors is concluded. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper presents an evaluation of energy supply strategies for Egypt's power sector and identifies prospects to meet rising electricity demand while addressing energy security and low-carbon development issues. We apply the TIMES energy system model to examine Egypt's energy policy goals as reflected in Egypt's Vision 2030 , and specifically: (a) targeted power generation based on renewable energy under two different scenarios; (b) targeted carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions' mitigation toward low-carbon society development; and (c) constraints on natural gas production for power generation. The quantitative results from the model suggest a need for diversification from predominantly natural gas to a mix of renewable and conventional energy sources in order to improve energy security, reduce dependency on fossil fuels, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions, with the level of diversification changing with different policy options. Although total energy system cost is projected to increase the effects on fossil-fuel dependency, diversity of energy supply-mix, marginal electricity generation price, and GHG mitigation indicate that it may be wise to target promotion of renewable energy for power generation and develop a low-carbon society. Highlights • Egypt energy strategies call for GHG reductions and diversified energy portfolios. • Egypt can diversify from natural gas to a mix-supply to improve energy security. • Enhanced promotion of renewables would reduce fossil fuel dependency by 42% by 2050. • The long-term cost of pursuing renewable technologies is not significantly higher. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an assessment of alternative, long-term energy supply and low-carbon strategies for the Philippine power sector from 2014 to 2040 using TIMES model. It examines the potential contribution of renewable energy to diversify the Philippine energy supply-mix to meet future electricity demands. The reference scenario compares the impact of four alternative policy goals: (1) carbon tax, (2) targeted renewable-based power generation, (3) limited coal share in supply-mix, and (4) renewables subsidy. The reference scenario shows a significant increase of the share of coal-based power generation and import dependency of fossil-fuel increases from 227 PJ in 2016 to 1073 PJ in 2040. The model results for the alternative policy scenarios show a large potential for renewable energy-based power generation. The alternative policy options show a significant decrease of import dependency in the energy supply-mix for power generation. Most alternative policy scenarios project a higher total system cost, with the exception of the subsidy scenario. System cost increases only 2.6% in the renewables target scenario relative to the reference scenario. However, long-term benefits from investing in the alternative policy options would need to be considered, including diversification of energy supply-mix, improved energy security, and progress toward a low-carbon society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship between renewable energy production and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) using U.S. state-level data for 2010. After controlling for other sources of emissions, U.S. states that produce a larger share of renewable energy are found to have lower GHG emissions. It is estimated that a 10% increase in the share of renewable energy could decrease CH 4 emissions by about 0.26%. Since the use of renewable energy sources does not release GHG emissions, this effect can be interpreted as stabilizing if renewable energy is added to coal use or as corrective if it replaces coal. After accounting for the role of coal as a baseload power source, an increase in the share of renewable energy is estimated to mitigate N 2 O emissions at the U.S. state level only if states individually decrease their share of coal use to levels below 41.47%. These findings have significant policy implications for the provision of guidance to policymakers in identifying optimal energy mixes and in pursuing realistic goals to enhance renewable energy penetration and to contribute to the current efforts of tackling climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beijing, as the capital of China, is under the high pressure of climate change and pollution. The consumption of non-renewable energy is one of the most important sources of the CO 2 emissions, which cause climate changes. This paper presents a study on the energy system modelling towards renewable energy and low carbon development for the city of Beijing. The analysis of energy system modelling is organized in two steps to explore the alternative renewable energy system in Beijing. Firstly, a reference energy system of Beijing is created based on the available data in 2014. The EnergyPLAN , an energy system analysis tool, is chosen to develop the reference energy model. Secondly, this reference model is used to investigate the alternative energy system for integrating renewable energies. Three scenarios are developed towards the energy system of Beijing in 2030, which are: (i) reference scenario 2030 , (ii) BAU ( business as usual ) scenario 2030 , and (iii) RES ( renewable energies ) scenario 2030 . The 100% renewable energy system with zero CO 2 emissions can be achieved by increasing solar energy, biomass and municipal solid waste (MSW) and optimizing heating system. The primary fuel consumption is reduced to 155.9 TWh in the RES scenario, which is 72% of fuel consumption in the reference scenario 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, climate change has become a vital issue prompting investigations for increasing the share of renewable energy employment in power generation industry. Solar energy is arguably the most favorable solution for a greener power generation technology. With the current level of maturity, solar energy contribution is limited due to intermittency and storage issues. A possible solution to the aforementioned difficulties is power plant hybridization. In this paper, thermo-economic optimization of a hybrid air bottoming cycle (ABC) power plant is accomplished with the objective of minimizing the levelized cost of electricity. The aforementioned hybrid ABC optimization results are compared with a hybrid conventional combined cycle power plant to identify the most cost effective combined cycle configuration for a 50 MWe hybrid power plant. Finally, an already existing ABC power plant hybridization is investigated utilizing payback period, life cycle saving, and levelized cost of electricity approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past decades, forecasting electricity demand has been crucial in energy planning and power distribution management to establish sustainable strategies in undeveloped countries. This work proposes an integrated approach to evaluate Pakistan's energy sector and holistically investigate electricity-load strategies to prioritize them and prevent future electricity crises. This paper proposes a renewable energy technologies-based system design to eliminate energy shortfalls. Deep learning models can predict fluctuating variation in energy consumption, crucial for designing renewable energy systems. The strengths – weaknesses – opportunities, and threats (SWOT) analysis identified relevant factors and sub-factors, while the fuzzy-TOPSIS methodology prioritized alternative strategies. The results show that driving the nation to the functionality of an energy hub by sufficiently using its geostrategic location within the regional cooperation framework is the critical dominant factor. Besides, improving the country's investment environment was the least favored priority. Baluchistan was found to have the highest potential for wind energy, with an ability to generate 3270 MWh/year through wind power. [Display omitted] • An integrated management approach is proposed to address electricity crisis. • The proposed strategical energy forecast and planning is studied for Pakistan. • Prioritize the indicated strategies for sustainable energy planning and development. • Turning the country into renewable energy hub is suitable for Pakistan's economy. • Baluchistan has the potential to generate 3270 MW power from wind power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy systems, which include energy production, conversion, transportation, distribution and utilization, are key infrastructures in modern society. Interactions among energy systems are generally studied under the framework of energy trade. Although such studies have generated important insights, there are limitations. Many distant interactions (e.g. those due to the Fukushima nuclear crisis) are not in the form of trade, but affect energy sustainability. Even when distant interactions are related to energy trade, they are not systematically analyzed. Environmental impacts of trade are often not integrated with economic analysis of trade. In this paper, to identify and fill important knowledge gaps, we apply an integrated framework of telecoupling (socioeconomic and environmental interactions over distances). The framework of telecoupling, which is more comprehensive and cross-disciplinary than the energy trade framework, is a useful theoretical and methodological tool for analyzing distant interactions among coupled human and natural systems (including energy systems). Telecouplings widely exist in energy systems with various forms and link energy sustainability of different countries closely, so we proposed some methods for energy sustainability analysis under the framework of telecoupling. From the aspect of causes, a method is proposed to judge whether the telecoupling driven by economic factors is conducive to energy sustainability. From the aspect of effects, a method is proposed to assess whether an event is conducive to energy sustainability. The telecoupling framework presents opportunities for more profound and comprehensive understanding of energy sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy and climate market policy is inherently multiobjective and multilevel, in that desired choices often conflict and are made at a higher level than influenced actors. Analyzing tradeoff between reducing emissions and keeping fuel prices low, while seeking compromise among producers, traders, and consumers is the crux of the policy problem. This paper aims to address this issue by combining multiobjective optimization problems, which allow the study of tradeoff between choices, with equilibrium problems that model the networks and players over which these policies are chosen, to produce a formulation called a Multiobjective Program with Equilibrium Constraints. We apply this formulation to the United States renewable fuel market to help understand why it has been so difficult in releasing the 2014 mandate for the RFS (Renewable Fuel Standard). The RFS ensures that a minimum volume of renewable fuel is included in transportation fuel sold in the United States. Determining the RFS volume requirements involves anticipating market reaction as well as balancing policy objectives. We provide policy alternatives to aid in setting these volume obligations that are applicable to a wide variety of climate and energy market settings and explain why the RFS is not an optimal policy for reducing emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The improvement of energy efficiency and the integration of renewable energy in buildings are key elements of current European policies. According to the recast of the Directive EPBD (Energy Performance of Buildings), Member States have to target nZEBs (nearly zero energy buildings) and minimum energy performance requirements within a cost-optimal framework by 2020. This study reports the comparative methodology reported in the EPBD, aimed at the establishment of cost-optimality in office buildings located in a warm climate. A number of energy efficiency measures have been selected and applied to the envelope and the systems of a virtual reference office building. Technical features and energy performance calculations have been assessed for the obtained configurations. Primary energy consumption and global costs have been derived to identify the cost-optimal configuration from a financial and macroeconomic analysis. The paper shows the suitability of the methodology to support the design of cost-effective energy efficient solutions in new office buildings. Results show technical variants selection able to a decrease primary energy consumption by 39% and CO 2 emissions by 41% at the lowest cost. They also illustrate how to design cost-optimal nZEBs for a warm climate in compliance with EU (European Union) policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the impact of climate change on renewable energy resources is increasingly vital as our energy systems transition towards higher levels of renewable generation. This paper explores power system transition under climate change impacts on hydro resources, as well as the impact of climate change on the cost of decarbonisation. An integrated energy systems assessment tool is used to investigate the impact of altered seasonal availability factors on the optimal energy investment pathways. The cost of decarbonisation is assessed under climate change impact on the hydro resources, as well as the impact of discount rate assumptions on the total cost of decarbonisation. Results show that in the case of New Zealand, more hydro will be available in winter due to climate change, but less in summer, which is compensated for with increased solar capacity. Decarbonisation in New Zealand sees a major transformation in the transport sector, supported by a relatively moderate increase in overall demand in the electricity sector. While climate change impact on the hydro resource may reduce the total cost of decarbonisation in New Zealand, this cannot be generalised, as these impacts vary across countries and regions. • Climate change amplifies seasonal availability of hydro in New Zealand. • Climate change has indirect effects on optimal long-term energy system investments. • Cost of decarbonisation decreases slightly due to climate change in New Zealand. • Trade-off between solar and wind to support hydro under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Distributed energy resources (DER) are emerging rapidly. New engineering technologies, materials, and designs improve the performance and extend the range of locations for DER. In contrast, constructing new or modernizing existing high voltage transmission lines for centralized generation are expensive and challenging. In addition, customer demand for reliability has increased and concerns about climate change have created a pull for swift renewable energy penetration. In this context, DER policy makers, developers, and users are interested in determining which energy technologies to use to accommodate different end-use energy demands. In this paper, we present a two-stage multi-objective strategic technology-policy framework for determining the optimal energy technology allocation for DER. The framework simultaneously considers economic, technical, and environmental objectives. The first stage utilizes a production frontier estimation model for each end-use to evaluate the performance of each energy technology based on the three objectives. The second stage incorporates factor efficiencies determined in the first stage, capacity limitations, dispatchability, and renewable penetration for each technology, and demand for each end-use into a bottleneck multi-criteria decision model which provides the Pareto-optimal energy resource allocation. For demonstration purposes, we apply the framework to a dataset constructed for a typical commercial building located in the Northeastern United States and discuss the results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to develop the mathematical model of electricity based on renewable energy and large-scale utility (eRELU) networks to achieve a low-carbon economy. Huge petrochemical industries allocated in South Korea are considered to evaluate the proposed model by techno-economic and environmental assessment subject to Korean renewable energy policy. The suggested mathematical model consists of two parts: the deterministic model to optimize industrial-scale utility networks and the stochastic model to construct clean electricity networks using variable renewable energy coupled with energy storage systems to provide feasible quantities of renewable electricity required from the optimized utility network. The resulting model is complemented by carbon capture and storage (CCS) systems in doing so the inevitable amount of greenhouse gases from boilers in utility networks can be significantly captured. Diverse scenarios under the uncertain parameters such as facility investment/operating costs and capacity factors of renewable energy are applied to the developed model, and the results show that the best scenario-based eRELU-CCS network reduces 16% of the total costs and capture/mitigate 114 tCO 2 /d comparing to the base case. It is expected that the proposed model will play an essential role in advancing the country's energy transition. [Display omitted] • Mathematical model developed for renewable energy and large-scale utility network. • CCS technology is combined with the optimized utility network for low-carbon economy. • A case study of huge petrochemical industries in South Korea were applied. • Scenario-based techno-economic and environmental assessment was conducted. • 16% of total economic costs and 114 tCO 2 /d of GHG emissions were reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the cross-quantile dependence and causality between non-ferrous metals and clean energy indices by employing data from November 2003 to May 2019. Specifically, we utilize the time-varying copulas to examine the asymmetric connectedness among the assets. Based on the assessed dependence, we utilize the time-static and time-varying cross-quantilogram approach to evaluate the asymmetric dependence across different quantiles. Finally, we employ a Granger-causality in quantiles analysis to assess the causal relationship across different quantiles of the return distributions of the underlying assets. By utilizing time-varying copulas, we report that the conditional dependence between the assets is time-varying and asymmetric with the potential for tail dependence. Our results from the cross-quantilogram analysis provide further evidence that the interconnectedness is asymmetric across quantiles, and it increases with the increase in lags. In addition, we report that extreme market conditions positively influence the dependence structure. Finally, our findings from Granger-causality in quantiles indicate bidirectional causality among assets that intensifies with the increase in lag order. These findings are important for governmental policies that aim at mitigating the impact of climate change by transforming the global energy landscape towards clean and renewable energy sources. • Assets considered are non-ferrous metals and clean energy indices. • Time-varying copulas, Cross-Quantile dependence and causality in quantiles applied. • The assets are time-varying and asymmetric having tail dependence. • Bidirectional causality established which intensifies for higher lag orders. • Non-ferrous metals are essential for the development of clean energy assets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Renewable energies are deployed worldwide to mitigate climate change and push power systems towards sustainability. Nevertheless, the weather-dependent nature and variability of renewable energy sources often hinders their integration to national grids. The combination of different sources to profit from their beneficial complementarity has often been proposed as a partial solution to overcome these issues. This paper introduces a novel method for quantifying total temporal energetic complementarity between three different variable renewable sources, based on well-known mathematical techniques: correlation coefficients and compromise programming. It has the major advantage of allowing the simultaneous assessment of partial and total complementarity, as well as allowing for a linear assessment of complementarity. The method is employed to study the complementarity of wind, solar and hydropower generation on different temporal scales in a region of Poland. Results show that timescale selection has a determinant impact on the estimated value of the total temporal complementarity index. • A method for simultaneous evaluation of partial and total energetic complementarity. • Method combines known metrics: compromise programming and correlations. • Timescale has a direct impact on the value of the complementarity index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]