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The core of the energy transformation under the carbon-neutral vision is the gradual replacement of high-carbon energy by zero-carbon and low-carbon energy. However, the large-scale deployment of clean energy technology in turn relies on key minerals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, and nickel. Based on this, this paper conducts research on the demand for key minerals in clean energy transition and the role of key minerals in clean energy transition. In particular, this paper calculated the demand for mineral supply for China's carbon neutrality target, and the impact of some mineral resource constraints on the carbon neutrality path. Relevant results can provide a decision-making basis for the future development and utilization of key mineral resources, as well as the implementation of future carbon-neutral goals. • We evaluate the impact of crucial mineral resource on the carbon neutrality path. • Copper's availability greatly affects the adoption of new energy technologies. • Limited resources hinder early carbon capture and storage development. • Negative emission technologies are necessary for China's carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The realization of carbon neutral goal is inseparable from the development of new energy industry, and scientific and effective policy support can accelerate the progress of the goal. In this paper, the policy driven ability of China's photovoltaic industry in the background of carbon neutral is evaluated. Firstly, the evaluation system is established by the improved diamond model. Then, the policy evaluation standard is formulated according to the Interval Type-2 Fuzzy sets (IT2FS). Finally, the weight of each index is determined by using the fuzzy OWA operator weighting method (F-OWA). Then, the policy driving ability of China's photovoltaic industry is evaluated by fuzzy matter-element extension method (F-MEEM), and the effectiveness of the evaluation results is further verified by weight sensitivity analysis. According to the evaluation results, policy support plays an important role in the development of photovoltaic industry. This paper also gives policy suggestions for the development of China's photovoltaic industry under the background of carbon neutral from the macro, meso and micro perspectives. • China's PV industry evaluation system is established by the improved diamond model. •IT2FS and F-OWA are used to process indicators. •The policy driving ability of China's PV industry is evaluated by F-MEEM. •The effectiveness of the evaluation results is further verified by weight sensitivity analysis. •The results are analyzed in detail, and corresponding suggestions are put forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How to achieve the "double carbon" goal in energy systems has been the concern of governments. Integrated energy system (IES) is affected by climate change during his operation, in order to study the impact of climate change on IES and achieve the "double carbon" goal in energy systems, this paper proposes an integrated machine learning(IML) to forecast the long-term load, then investigates IES costs and carbon emissions in relation to climate, followed by the establishment of carbon peak energy system(CPES) and carbon neutral energy system(CNES), finally the honey badger algorithm is used to optimize the configuration of CPES and CNES. The results show that: IML can accurately make load forecasts. Under climate change, changes in load reduce the cost and carbon emissions of IES, and changes in equipment efficiency increase the cost and carbon emissions of IES. When both are considered, the cost and carbon emissions of IES increase by 1.18% and 0.92% per decade respectively. The costs of CPES and CNES increase by 0.93% and 1% respectively for every 10 years earlier than the year of achievement. To meet China's "double carbon" goal, CPES and CNES need to increase their costs by 1.97% and 2% respectively. • Integrated machine learning proposed for long-term load forecasting. • Studied the impact of system equipment efficiency and load with climate change. • Proposing carbon peaking energy system to achieve the carbon peak goal. • Proposed carbon-neutral energy system to achieve carbon neutrality goal. • The increased costs of achieving carbon peak and carbon neutral were studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The carbon trading market is an effective way to mitigate the threat of climate warming. In the context of carbon neutrality, what is the carbon emission trading scheme's carbon reduction effect? This paper answers the question by examining the carbon efficiency of China's iron and steel industry. This study first constructs CO 2 emission efficiency by employing the data envelopment approach. It then uses the synthetic control method to identify the impact of the carbon emission trading scheme on the CO 2 efficiency of the iron and steel industry. The results show that CO 2 emission efficiency in pilot provinces increased at a 5% significance level compared with the counterfactual scenario. The carbon trading market plays a vital role in industrial CO 2 emission efficiency improvement in Guangdong, Shanghai, Tianjin, Hubei, and Chongqing. From a dynamic perspective, the policy effect of enhancing CO 2 efficiency becomes more prominent over time. Moreover, the effectiveness degree of the carbon emission trading scheme varies across pilot provinces, caused of regional policy differences. Based on the findings, we put forward targeted suggestions for improving the newly-established national carbon trading market. • The DEA model and the synthetic control method are employed in the study. • Impact of carbon market on CO 2 efficiency of iron and steel industry is verified. • The heterogeneity of carbon market effects is explored from regional perspective. • Carbon market significantly promotes industrial CO 2 efficiency in pilot provinces. • China should develop the national carbon market to achieve carbon neutrality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has played an active and constructive role in the global combat against climate change. Municipalities play a leading role in tackling global climate change. However, despite the global efforts to push for carbon neutrality, the pathway is not yet clear. Using the municipality of Bengbu as a case, this paper explores pathways for achieving carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality in order to reach a CO 2 emission peak before 2030 in four Scenarios and develops a low emission framework taking into consideration the local economy, population, renewable resources, as well as the transport and energy sectors based on the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) model. Meanwhile, the energy demand, the structure of the electric power generation, the CO 2 emission, and the total cost in different Scenarios are simulated respectively. The result of this study provides insight on options for energy transformation for the period of 2020–2060. The results show that the industrial sector is the largest energy consumer. The growth rate of energy demand in the primary industry and industrial sector shows downward trends. The increasement of industrial electrification rate and coal generation phasing out are crucial to CO 2 emission reduction. The large-scale deployment of renewable energy and the deployment of thermal power generation with CCUS are important for the electric power industry to achieve carbon reduction goals. Last but not the least, recommendations on energy planning for municipals to realize carbon emission peak and achieve carbon neutrality are provided. • Pathways for achieving carbon reduction targets of the municipality based on the LEAP model are explored. • The coal generation phasing out is prerequisite to CO 2 emission reduction. • The large-scale deployment of renewable energy is crucial for the electric power industry to achieve carbon reduction goals. • The deployment of thermal power with CCUS is necessary for the electric power industry to achieve carbon reduction goals. • Restructuring of industrial energy consumption and increasing the electrification rate are significant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A dual-carbon target (i.e., carbon peak and carbon neutrality) has been a critical external factor for the usage of China's fossil energy in the future. As the lowest-carbon fossil energy source, the uncertainty of China's natural gas usage is much higher than that of coal and oil. Thus, a detailed analysis of China's future natural gas consumption (NGC) under the dual-carbon target has attracted great attention from academia. This paper constructs a system dynamics-based forecasting model for China's NGC, and predicts the trends of China's primary energy demand, natural gas demand, and carbon emissions under four scenarios of high-, medium-, low-, and business-as-usual transitions. The low transition scenario, which is in line with the actual situation of China, shows that: (1) primary energy consumption peaks around 2040 at approximately 7 billion tons of standard coal equivalent. (2) Carbon dioxide emissions peak in 2030 at approximately 10.6 billion tons of carbon dioxide, and "net zero" carbon emissions will be achieved in 2057 and 2059 under high and low carbon sinks, respectively. (3) NGC is expected to peak in 2038 at approximately 630 billion cubic meters. (4) Industrial gas is expected to peak around 2035 at approximately 450 billion cubic meters. • We predict medium- and long-term natural gas consumption in China. • We construct a system dynamics model considering the bind of dual-carbon target. • We apply scenario analysis to quantify the intensity of low-carbon transition. • We get results of prediction the peak natural gas consumption in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]