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Abstract Global climate change is a significant environmental problem. A major trigger of climate change is the excess carbon emissions. Based on 44 scenarios in the second generation of new dry cement technology systems, this paper establishes IPSO-BP model to forecast the carbon emissions peak of China's cement industry for 2016–2050 years. The results indicate that China's cement industry only implements capacity reduction plans and the second generation of new dry cement technology systems, so that carbon emissions can reach the peak before 2030. It is up to 19 years ahead of the carbon emissions peak of the basic scenario and the carbon emissions peak is reduced by 38 Mt. Moreover, this paper analyzes the technical combination of the earliest carbon emissions and the lowest carbon emissions. As for the earliest carbon emissions technical combination, China's cement industry carbon emissions will peak at 789.95 Mt in 2021. According to the lowest carbon emissions technical combination, China's cement industry carbon emissions will peak at 742.37 Mt in 2025. Accordingly, the conclusions will be helpful for making carbon emissions reduction policies for China's cement industry. Highlights • Carbon emission levels were reviewed from industrial output and technologies. • The prediction model of carbon emissions was built with improved PSO and BPNN model. • The scenarios were set to analyze carbon emission peak in China's cement industry. • Importance of technique and capacity reduction in China's cement industry is defined. • The best carbon emission peak plan for China's cement industry is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This paper investigates the relationship among carbon dioxide emissions, economic growth and electricity consumption in the presence of two other variables which are trade openness and annual average temperature. The study uses data of four selected North- African countries over the period 1971–2014. We use the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Cointegration approach (ARDL) known as the Bounds approach. The obtained results confirm the existence of long run equilibrium among the studied variables. The long run analysis reveals that economic growth and electricity consumption are the main cause of environment degradation, while the increased temperature over the year leads to increase electricity consumption in Egypt and Morocco. On the other hand, the analysis of short run causalities confirms the growth hypothesis in these two countries. Furthermore, the feedback relationship between economic growth and electricity consumption has been confirmed in Tunisia. These findings imply that environmental and economic corrective measures have to be adopted to achieve green growth and sustainable development. Highlights • The economic growth in North-Africa region is accompanied by an increased electricity use. • Energy consumption and economic growth are the main sources of CO2 emissions. • Climate change appears to be a significant factor that determines electricity consumption in the region. • North- African countries should investing in renewable energy field to achieve sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an assessment of alternative, long-term energy supply and low-carbon strategies for the Philippine power sector from 2014 to 2040 using TIMES model. It examines the potential contribution of renewable energy to diversify the Philippine energy supply-mix to meet future electricity demands. The reference scenario compares the impact of four alternative policy goals: (1) carbon tax, (2) targeted renewable-based power generation, (3) limited coal share in supply-mix, and (4) renewables subsidy. The reference scenario shows a significant increase of the share of coal-based power generation and import dependency of fossil-fuel increases from 227 PJ in 2016 to 1073 PJ in 2040. The model results for the alternative policy scenarios show a large potential for renewable energy-based power generation. The alternative policy options show a significant decrease of import dependency in the energy supply-mix for power generation. Most alternative policy scenarios project a higher total system cost, with the exception of the subsidy scenario. System cost increases only 2.6% in the renewables target scenario relative to the reference scenario. However, long-term benefits from investing in the alternative policy options would need to be considered, including diversification of energy supply-mix, improved energy security, and progress toward a low-carbon society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 2009, Singapore has set about implementing mitigation and energy efficiency measures in key sectors to achieve unilaterally pledged reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 7–11% below business-as-usual (BAU) levels in 2020. Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from fossil fuel-fired power plants are a major focus for emissions abatement, with an expected reduction of 4 Mt CO 2 from the electricity generation sector in 2020. In this paper, we explore Singapore's various strategies in the electricity generation sector to fulfil this target and use an EnergyPLAN optimization model to assess the impact of these strategies on CO 2 emissions from Singapore's electricity generation sector through to 2020. A comparison of BAU scenario in 2020 (BAU 2020), 2020 target emissions reduction trajectory, and three emissions reduction alternative policy scenarios (denoted APS-I, APS-II, and APS-III) is carried out. The EnergyPLAN simulation results indicate that all three APS scenarios achieve the 2020 carbon emissions reduction target in Singapore's electricity generation sector. The results furthermore suggest that the 2020 electricity generation associated emissions reduction target can be met through measures that are already available. Vulnerabilities are identified in Singapore's electricity generation fuel mix, and emission reduction strategies beyond 2020 are outlined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beijing, as the capital of China, is under the high pressure of climate change and pollution. The consumption of non-renewable energy is one of the most important sources of the CO 2 emissions, which cause climate changes. This paper presents a study on the energy system modelling towards renewable energy and low carbon development for the city of Beijing. The analysis of energy system modelling is organized in two steps to explore the alternative renewable energy system in Beijing. Firstly, a reference energy system of Beijing is created based on the available data in 2014. The EnergyPLAN , an energy system analysis tool, is chosen to develop the reference energy model. Secondly, this reference model is used to investigate the alternative energy system for integrating renewable energies. Three scenarios are developed towards the energy system of Beijing in 2030, which are: (i) reference scenario 2030 , (ii) BAU ( business as usual ) scenario 2030 , and (iii) RES ( renewable energies ) scenario 2030 . The 100% renewable energy system with zero CO 2 emissions can be achieved by increasing solar energy, biomass and municipal solid waste (MSW) and optimizing heating system. The primary fuel consumption is reduced to 155.9 TWh in the RES scenario, which is 72% of fuel consumption in the reference scenario 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Coal is the abundant domestic energy resource in India and is projected to remain so in future under a business-as-usual scenario. Using domestic coal mitigates national energy security risks. However coal use exacerbates global climate change. Under a strict climate change regime, coal use is projected to decline in future. However this would increase imports of energy sources like natural gas (NG) and nuclear and consequent energy security risks for India. The paper shows that carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) can mitigate CO2 emissions from coal-based large point source (LPS) clusters and therefore would play a key role in mitigating both energy security risks for India and global climate change risks. This paper estimates future CO2 emission projections from LPS in India, identifies the potential CO2 storage types at aggregate level and matches the two into the future using Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM/Local model) with a Geographical Information System (GIS) interface. The paper argues that clustering LPS that are close to potential storage sites could provide reasonable economic opportunities for CCS in future if storage sites of different types are further explored and found to have adequate capacity. The paper also indicates possible LPS locations to utilize CCS opportunities economically in future, especially since India is projected to add over 220,000MW of thermal power generation capacity by 2030. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The goal of this paper is to showcase a modelling exercise, conducted for the Republic of Macedonia, a non-Annex I country under UNFCCC and a candidate for EU membership, by making use of MARKAL energy system model. Baseline Scenario and three groups of mitigation scenarios have been developed until 2050, reflecting different types of targets with different levels of ambition regarding CO 2 emissions reduction: (1) EU scenarios – end-year targets compared to 1990 level; (2) QELRC (Quantified Emission Limitation and Reduction Commitment) scenarios – a range of targets over the period 2021–28 and for each subsequent 8-year period, and (3) Baseline deviation scenarios – deviation compared to baseline emission level. The comparative assessment of mitigation scenarios, based on the cumulative emissions, cumulative total system costs and incremental specific reduction cost, has generated a basis for setting the national mitigation contributions and formulating the most appropriate national mitigation action plan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the impact of climate change on renewable energy resources is increasingly vital as our energy systems transition towards higher levels of renewable generation. This paper explores power system transition under climate change impacts on hydro resources, as well as the impact of climate change on the cost of decarbonisation. An integrated energy systems assessment tool is used to investigate the impact of altered seasonal availability factors on the optimal energy investment pathways. The cost of decarbonisation is assessed under climate change impact on the hydro resources, as well as the impact of discount rate assumptions on the total cost of decarbonisation. Results show that in the case of New Zealand, more hydro will be available in winter due to climate change, but less in summer, which is compensated for with increased solar capacity. Decarbonisation in New Zealand sees a major transformation in the transport sector, supported by a relatively moderate increase in overall demand in the electricity sector. While climate change impact on the hydro resource may reduce the total cost of decarbonisation in New Zealand, this cannot be generalised, as these impacts vary across countries and regions. • Climate change amplifies seasonal availability of hydro in New Zealand. • Climate change has indirect effects on optimal long-term energy system investments. • Cost of decarbonisation decreases slightly due to climate change in New Zealand. • Trade-off between solar and wind to support hydro under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increasing economic activities and rapid demographic changes in a number of African countries may have consequential effects on environmental quality. In this paper, a multi-region input–output modeling framework is used to show that except Egypt, Nigeria, Tunisia, South Africa, Zimbabwe and the Rest of North Africa, all other African countries/regions are net-importers of embodied emissions. With respect to the emission-intensive and trade exposed sectors, however, only Egypt, Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe are rather net-exporters of embodied emissions. Secondly, panel regression techniques that allow cross-section dependence are used to investigate the determinants of CO 2 emissions in Africa. The estimated elasticities for per capita income and energy intensity are positive, statistically significant and robust for both low- and middle-income African countries. The most active segment of the labor force (percentage of the population between age 14 and 64) and industrialization exert significant positive effects on CO 2 emissions in middle income countries while the impact of urbanization, population and trade openness appears generally insignificant across income groups. The differential impacts of both economic and demographic variables on CO 2 emissions may have implications for the design and implementation of development and climate protection policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Climate change is of great concern for society today. Manufacturing industries and construction account for approximately 20% of global CO2 emissions and, consequently, it is important that this sector investigate options to reduce its CO2 emissions. One option could be to substitute fossil fuels with renewable alternatives. This paper describes a case study in which four future energy market scenarios predicting 2030 were used to analyse whether it would be profitable for a steel plant to produce bio-SNG (bio-synthetic natural gas) in a biomass gasifier and to substitute LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) with bio-SNG as fuel in reheating furnaces. The effects on global CO2 emissions were analysed from a perspective in which biomass is considered a limited resource. The results from the analysis show that investment in a biomass gasifier and fuel conversion would not be profitable in any of the scenarios. Depending on the scenario, the production cost for bio-SNG ranged between 22 and 36 EUR/GJ. Fuel substitution would reduce global CO2 emission if the marginal biomass user is a producer of transportation fuel. However, if the marginal user of biomass is a coal power plant with wood co-firing, the result would be increased global CO2 emissions. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Heat pumps have rapidly gained popularity in the Nordic area, as they are marketed to provide considerable monetary savings and CO2 emission reductions. Heat pumps are installed even in buildings heated by CHP (combined heat and power production). In this paper we calculate CO2 emission factors of DH (district heating) from CHP and GSHP (ground source heat pumps) in Finland, based on hourly data at present and in various future scenarios. In LCA (life cycle assessment) analyses, usually only annual averages are used. We show that including seasonal variation can result in very different emission factors. Since during warm seasons, electricity production is significantly less carbon-intensive than in cold seasons. We find that the current emission factor of CHP DH consumption change is only 70–100 g/kWh. In the future it is 0…300 g/kWh, depending on the CO2 intensity of electricity production. The similar GSHP emission factor would develop from the present 200 g/kWh to 50…200 g/kWh. As long as electricity consumption has seasonal variation or coal condensing power is significant in the interconnected network, CHP has lower emissions than GSHP. We recommend using CLCA (consequential LCA) methodology and the inclusion of seasonal variation in heating option comparisons. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper aims to develop the mathematical model of electricity based on renewable energy and large-scale utility (eRELU) networks to achieve a low-carbon economy. Huge petrochemical industries allocated in South Korea are considered to evaluate the proposed model by techno-economic and environmental assessment subject to Korean renewable energy policy. The suggested mathematical model consists of two parts: the deterministic model to optimize industrial-scale utility networks and the stochastic model to construct clean electricity networks using variable renewable energy coupled with energy storage systems to provide feasible quantities of renewable electricity required from the optimized utility network. The resulting model is complemented by carbon capture and storage (CCS) systems in doing so the inevitable amount of greenhouse gases from boilers in utility networks can be significantly captured. Diverse scenarios under the uncertain parameters such as facility investment/operating costs and capacity factors of renewable energy are applied to the developed model, and the results show that the best scenario-based eRELU-CCS network reduces 16% of the total costs and capture/mitigate 114 tCO 2 /d comparing to the base case. It is expected that the proposed model will play an essential role in advancing the country's energy transition. [Display omitted] • Mathematical model developed for renewable energy and large-scale utility network. • CCS technology is combined with the optimized utility network for low-carbon economy. • A case study of huge petrochemical industries in South Korea were applied. • Scenario-based techno-economic and environmental assessment was conducted. • 16% of total economic costs and 114 tCO 2 /d of GHG emissions were reduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The objective of this paper is to address the question of what would be the real impact of energy efficiency improvements on the reduction of GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions through the deployment of energy-efficient technologies. We study the cost effectiveness of replacing current appliances with more efficient models, taking into consideration the implicit discount rate observed in people’s purchasing behavior. This is followed by a discussion of why the efficiency gap exists and how large it is. If the world were to successfully implement every negative- or zero-cost measure, the CO2 abatement potential in the global residential and commercial sector in 2020, on a conservative estimate, would be 1.4 Gt of CO2, roughly equivalent to the current CO2 emissions of India as the world fourth largest emitter. If a longer payback period is allowed, a further 1.2 Gt of opportunities, which almost amount to the current CO2 emissions of Japan as the world’s fifth largest emitter of CO2, could be gained globally at below zero-cost in 2020. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper identifies the main features of CO2 emission from fossil energy combustion in China. Then it estimates China''s future energy requirements and projects its CO2 emission from 2010 to 2020 based on the scenario analysis approach. China''s rate of carbon productivity growth is estimated to be 5.4% in the period 2005–2020, while the CO2 intensity of GDP will reduce by about 50% but CO2 emission in 2020 will still be about 40% higher than prevailing in 2005 because of rapid growth of GDP. This estimation is based on the assumption that China will implement a sustainable development strategy in consideration of climate change issues. The main objectives of the strategy are to implement an “energy conservation first” strategy, to develop renewable energy and advanced nuclear technology actively, to readjust the country''s economic structure, and to formulate and legislate laws and regulations, and to build institutions for energy conservation and development of renewable energy. It concludes that international measures to mitigate CO2 emission will limit world fossil fuel consumption. China is not placed to replicate the modernization model adopted by developed countries and has to coordinate economic development and carbon dioxide emission control while still in the process of industrialization and modernization. China has to evolve a low carbon industrialization model. This is the key to the success of sustainable development initiatives in China. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]