Search

Seasonal climate variations affect electricity demand, which in turn affects month-to-month electricity planning and operations. Electricity system planning at the monthly timescale can be improved by adapting climate forecasts to estimate electricity demand and utilizing energy models to estimate monthly electricity generation and associated operational costs. The objective of this paper is to develop and test a computationally efficient model that can support seasonal planning while preserving key aspects of system operation over hourly and daily timeframes. To do so, an energy system optimization model is repurposed for seasonal planning using features drawn from a unit commitment model. Different scenarios utilizing a well-known test system are used to evaluate the errors associated with both the repurposed energy system model and an imperfect load forecast. The results show that the energy system optimization model using an imperfect load forecast produces differences in monthly cost and generation levels that are less than 2% compared with a unit commitment model using a perfect load forecast. The enhanced energy system optimization model can be solved approximately 100 times faster than the unit commitment model, making it a suitable tool for future work aimed at evaluating seasonal electricity generation and demand under uncertainty. • An energy system optimization model is repurposed for seasonal planning. • Results are compared with a unit commitment model under two demand forecasts. • The enhanced energy system model can generate results nearly 100 times faster. • This model performance makes it possible to do seasonal planning under uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper investigates the integration of renewable electricity into the UK system in 2020. The purpose is to find the optimal wind generation that can be integrated based on total cost of supply. Using EnergyPLAN model and the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) energy projections as inputs, this paper simulates the total cost of electricity supply with various levels of wind generation considering two systems: a reference and an alternative system. The results show that 80 TWh of wind electricity is most preferable in both systems, saving up to 0.9% of total cost when compared to a conventional system without wind electricity production. The alternative system, with decentralized generation and active demand management, brings relatively more cost saving, and higher wind utilisation, compared to the reference case. The sensitivity analysis with alternative fuel and capital costs again confirms the superiority of the alternative over the reference system. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This paper is concerned with modeling possible future paths for Lebanon’s electricity future and evaluating them. The baseline scenario (BS) reflects the business-as-usual state of affairs and thus describes the most likely evolution of the power sector in the absence of any climate change-related or other policies. Two alternative scenarios are examined in contrast to the BS; the renewable energy scenario (RES) and the natural gas scenario (NGS). Using the Long range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) software we conduct a full-fledged scenario analysis and examine the technical, economic, and environmental implications of all scenarios. From an economic standpoint as well as from an environmental perspective both alternative scenarios are superior to the baseline. Hence, the results of the simulation show that the alternative scenarios are more environmentally and economically attractive than the BS. They would help Lebanon meet its social, environmental, and economic development goals, while at the same time providing other unquantifiable benefits that are discussed further in the paper. Anticipated barriers to the shift in energy mix from conventional sources to renewable energy sources are also presented and discussed [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Heavily (about 99%) depending on imported energy, Taiwan, a country in the subtropics, has limited natural resources. In this regard, biomass energy from (MSW) municipal solid waste incineration plants thus became attractive during the 1990s. The objective of this paper is to present a comprehensive analysis of MSW-to-energy in Taiwan. This paper gave a concise summary of current status of domestic energy consumption & power generation, MSW generation & MSW incineration treatment, and electricity generation from MSW incineration plants since 2000. Based on the electricity generation in 2008 (i.e., 2967 GWh), the environmental benefit of mitigating CO2 emissions and the economic benefit of selling electricity were preliminarily calculated to be around 1.9 × 106 tons and US$ 1.5 × 108, respectively. However, since the heat content of incinerated MSW and the methodologies were used on the recommendation of the (IPCC) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the net emissions of CO2 equivalent from methane (CH4) & nitrous oxide (N2O) have been estimated to be at around 76,000 and 88,000 tons/year compared to coal and oil, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an assessment of alternative, long-term energy supply and low-carbon strategies for the Philippine power sector from 2014 to 2040 using TIMES model. It examines the potential contribution of renewable energy to diversify the Philippine energy supply-mix to meet future electricity demands. The reference scenario compares the impact of four alternative policy goals: (1) carbon tax, (2) targeted renewable-based power generation, (3) limited coal share in supply-mix, and (4) renewables subsidy. The reference scenario shows a significant increase of the share of coal-based power generation and import dependency of fossil-fuel increases from 227 PJ in 2016 to 1073 PJ in 2040. The model results for the alternative policy scenarios show a large potential for renewable energy-based power generation. The alternative policy options show a significant decrease of import dependency in the energy supply-mix for power generation. Most alternative policy scenarios project a higher total system cost, with the exception of the subsidy scenario. System cost increases only 2.6% in the renewables target scenario relative to the reference scenario. However, long-term benefits from investing in the alternative policy options would need to be considered, including diversification of energy supply-mix, improved energy security, and progress toward a low-carbon society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since 2009, Singapore has set about implementing mitigation and energy efficiency measures in key sectors to achieve unilaterally pledged reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 7–11% below business-as-usual (BAU) levels in 2020. Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from fossil fuel-fired power plants are a major focus for emissions abatement, with an expected reduction of 4 Mt CO 2 from the electricity generation sector in 2020. In this paper, we explore Singapore's various strategies in the electricity generation sector to fulfil this target and use an EnergyPLAN optimization model to assess the impact of these strategies on CO 2 emissions from Singapore's electricity generation sector through to 2020. A comparison of BAU scenario in 2020 (BAU 2020), 2020 target emissions reduction trajectory, and three emissions reduction alternative policy scenarios (denoted APS-I, APS-II, and APS-III) is carried out. The EnergyPLAN simulation results indicate that all three APS scenarios achieve the 2020 carbon emissions reduction target in Singapore's electricity generation sector. The results furthermore suggest that the 2020 electricity generation associated emissions reduction target can be met through measures that are already available. Vulnerabilities are identified in Singapore's electricity generation fuel mix, and emission reduction strategies beyond 2020 are outlined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper presents an application of LCA (Life Cycle Assessment) with a view to analyzing the environment aspects of rice straw-based power generation in Malaysia. It also compares rice straw-based power generation with that of coal and natural gas. GHG (Greenhouse gas) emission savings were calculated. It finds that rice straw power generation can save GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions of about 1.79 kg CO2-eq/kWh compared to coal-based and 1.05 kg CO2-eq/kWh with natural gas based power generation. While the development of rice straw-based power generation in Malaysia is still in its early stage, these paddy residues offer a large potential to generate electricity because of their availability. Rice straw power plants not only could solve the problem of removing rice straw from fields without open burning, but also could reduce GHG emissions that contribute to climate change, acidification, and eutrophication, among other environmental problems. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Heat pumps have rapidly gained popularity in the Nordic area, as they are marketed to provide considerable monetary savings and CO2 emission reductions. Heat pumps are installed even in buildings heated by CHP (combined heat and power production). In this paper we calculate CO2 emission factors of DH (district heating) from CHP and GSHP (ground source heat pumps) in Finland, based on hourly data at present and in various future scenarios. In LCA (life cycle assessment) analyses, usually only annual averages are used. We show that including seasonal variation can result in very different emission factors. Since during warm seasons, electricity production is significantly less carbon-intensive than in cold seasons. We find that the current emission factor of CHP DH consumption change is only 70–100 g/kWh. In the future it is 0…300 g/kWh, depending on the CO2 intensity of electricity production. The similar GSHP emission factor would develop from the present 200 g/kWh to 50…200 g/kWh. As long as electricity consumption has seasonal variation or coal condensing power is significant in the interconnected network, CHP has lower emissions than GSHP. We recommend using CLCA (consequential LCA) methodology and the inclusion of seasonal variation in heating option comparisons. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Although previous climate change research has documented the effects of linking mitigation and adaptation in the energy sector, there is still a lack of integrated assessment, particularly at national level. This paper may contribute to fill this gap, identifying the interactions between climate change and the energy demand in Macedonia. The analyses are conducted using the MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation)-Macedonia model, with a focus on energy demand in commercial and residential sectors (mainly for heating and cooling). Three different cases are developed: 1) Base Case, which gives the optimal electricity production mix, taking into account country''s development plans (without climate change); 2) Climate Change Damage Case, which introduces the climate changes by adjusting the heating and cooling degree days inputs, consistent with the existing national climate scenarios; and 3) Climate Change Adaptation Case, in which the optimal electricity generation mix is determined by allowing for endogenous capacity adjustments in the model. This modeling exercise will identify the changes in the energy demand and in electricity generation mix in the Adaptation Case, as well as climate change damages and benefits of the adaptation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Electricity supplies an increasing share of the world’s total energy demand and that contribution is set to increase. At the same time, there is increasing socio-political will to mitigate impacts of climate change as well as to improve energy security. This, in combination with the desire to ensure social and economic prosperity, creates a pressing need to consider the sustainability implications of future electricity generation. However, approaches to sustainability assessment differ greatly in their scope and methodology as currently there is no standardised approach. With this in mind, this paper reviews sustainability indicators that have previously been used to assess energy options and proposes a new sustainability assessment methodology based on a life cycle approach. In total, 43 indicators are proposed, addressing the techno-economic, environmental and social sustainability issues associated with energy systems. The framework has been developed primarily to address concerns associated with nuclear power in the UK, but is applicable to other energy technologies as well as to other countries. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Forecasts of energy demand, the fuel mix meeting that demand and the associated emissions are a key requirement for informed energy planning and policy decisions to ensure energy security and address climate change. While there have been many studies on China focusing on the short and medium term (to 2020 and 2050) there is little in the literature focusing on the long term (to 2100). This paper seeks to address those gaps on sectoral energy demands and emissions on long term by following a two-stage approach. It develops key energy indicators on useful energy demand, transport mobility and end use fuel demand for various sectors. The main drivers of these indicators are socio-economic parameters. The indicators are used to project energy service demands and emissions forward for China in TIMES G5 model at least cost approach. The results from this reference scenario suggest that China will require approximately 4 Gtoe of primary energy, by the end of the 21st century to deliver 3 Gtoe final energy consumption, 10 PWh of electricity generation, 1.3 Gtoe of energy imports, which will results in 10 Gt CO2 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]