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This paper analyzed the energy saving potentials of China's agricultural sector by using an econometric approach and a scenario analysis. First a co-integration analysis and an error correction model are employed to analyze the long-term equilibrium relationship between agricultural energy consumption and its influencing factors such as agricultural output, mechanical power, agricultural industrial structure, fiscal expenditure and energy prices during the period 1980–2012. Then stability test, fitting effect test and Monte Carlo simulation method are applied to confirm the rationality of the prediction model. Further, the scenario analysis method is used to predict the energy-saving potentials in 2020 and 2025 under different scenarios. It is found that agricultural output and mechanical power have positive impacts on energy consumption, while agricultural industrial structure, fiscal expenditure and energy prices have negative influences. The results demonstrate that under BAU condition, the energy demand of China's agricultural sector will reach 128, 94 and 161,61million tons of standard coal by 2020 and 2025 respectively. Moreover, the energy savings potential will be 7, 967 million tons and 15,701 million tons under moderate and advanced scenarios by the year 2020, and 17, 225 million tons and 31,094 million tons by the year 2025. This study provides a reference for establishing energy saving policies for China's agricultural sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper we investigate the co-movement and the causality relationship between energy consumption as well as electricity consumption and the HDI (human development index) using as a proxy of human well-being and by including energy prices as an additional variable, in fifteen developing countries for the period 1988 to 2008. Recently developed tests for the panel unit root, heterogeneous panel cointegration, and panel-based error correction models are employed. The empirical results support the neutrality hypothesis in the short-term, regards total energy or electricity consumption, implying an absence of causality running in either direction. In the short term, energy as well as electricity consumption has a neutral effect on the HDI. In the long-term the findings provide a clear support of a negative cointegration relationship between energy consumption and the HDI. While a positive cointegration relationship exists between electricity consumption and HDI. A 1% increase in per capita energy consumption reduces the HDI by 0.8% and, a 1% increase in per capita electricity consumption increases the HDI by 0.22%. Moreover, a 1% increase in energy price reduces the HDI by around 0.11%. This study thus provides empirical evidence of long-run and causal relationships between energy consumption and the HDI for our sample of countries; supporting the assertion that lack or limited access to modern energy services could hamper economic and human development prospects of countries and underpins all the MDGs (millennium development goals). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Considering the significance of renewable energy in the sustainable energy future discussion, it is important to understand its influencing factors in order to draw result implications for policy formulation. This study examines these influencing factors for Ghana in the context of an unimpressive renewable electricity scale-up amid the potentials and commitment. It proceeds to forecast the trend of renewable energy fifteen years after the sample period. The results, based on the application of the Vector Error Correction Model and Johansen cointegration technique, on a dataset covering 1980 to 2015, shows that Ghana's renewable electricity is mainly driven by foreign direct investment and trade openness, with real GDP per capita being inconsequential. What's more, both financial development and fossil fuel consumption undermine renewable energy development in Ghana. The dynamic forecast reveals an uninspiring future for renewable electricity, as generation will continue to plummet if conditions remain the same. In light of the findings, we recommend determinant-based policies anchored on the intentional handling of the appraised factors. One key contribution of this study is embodied in the fact that it makes the first empirical attempt in examining the determinants of renewable energy in Ghana. • The influencing factors of renewable energy is examined for Ghana. • Foreign direct investment and trade openness drive renewable energy. • Real GDP per capita plays an inconsequential role in renewable development. • A dynamic forecast reveals an uninspiring future of renewable energy. • Determinant-oriented policies are needed for Ghana's renewable energy development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]