Search

A radical adjustment to current energy systems will be imperative in achieving the Paris Agreement. This paper analyses the holistic 2050 Danish energy system and particularly its future transport sector, which aims to be fossil fuel independent. Using a linear optimisation tool (Balmorel-OptiFlow), the role of electrofuels is analysed at a high temporal and geographic resolution for the Nordic + German region. Electrofuel technologies have been investigated and incorporated into the energy model creating a comprehensive catalogue of alternative fuel pathways. Results reveal an energy system with a high reliance on variable energy sources. Electrofuels that utilise biomass have been found to be more economically attractive compared to electrofuels using carbon capture. Biomass costs, fuel demands, and electricity prices drive the competition between the evaluated alternative fuel pathways. Carbon capture technologies are found to not play a role in the production of transport fuels unless future biomass resources are more limited or costly than expected. Additionally, it has been found that temporal resolution can greatly affect results when modelling alternative fuel pathways. The study concludes that electrofuels - particularly those using biomass - can play a prominent role in future transport sectors. • Electrofuels have high use potential in future transport systems. • Fuels using hydrogen can be more economically attractive compared to biofuels. • Modelling of electrofuels in holistic energy systems enables sector coupling. • Novel modelling of electrofuels with high temporal and spatial resolution. • Linkage of power market model and detailed spatiotemporal network model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hard-to-electrify sectors will require renewable fuels to facilitate the green transition in the future. Therefore, it is crucial to identify promising production locations while taking into account the local biomass resources, variable renewable energy sources, and the synergies between sectors. In this study, investments and dispatch operations are optimised of a large catalogue of renewable fuel production technologies in the open-source software SpineOpt, and this is soft-linked to the comprehensive energy system model Balmorel. We analyse future production pathways by comparing various levels of hydrogen infrastructure, including large-scale hydrogen storage, and assess system impacts. The results indicate that methanol may provide synergies in its multipurpose use as an early (2030–2040) shipping fuel and later as an aviation fuel through further refining if ammonia becomes more competitive (2050). We furthermore show that a hydrogen infrastructure increases the competitiveness of non-flexible, hydrogen-based fuel production technologies. Offshore electrolysis hubs decrease energy system impacts in scenarios with 105 TWh of Nordic hydrogen export. However, hydrogen export scenarios are much costlier compared to scenarios with no export unless a high hydrogen price is received. Finally, we find that emission taxes in the range of 250–265 €/tCO 2 will be necessary for renewable fuels to become competitive. [Display omitted] • Renewable fuel production is modelled by soft-linking Balmorel and SpineOpt. • Decarbonising Nordic international transport requires emission taxes around 260 €/tCO 2. • Hydrogen infrastructure benefits inflexible, hydrogen-based fuel production. • Methanol, ammonia and Fischer–Tropsch fuels all play a role as future transport fuels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]