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Abstract Onshore wind and solar-photovoltaic-based electricity are expected to drive most of the global growth in renewable energy sources capacity until 2020. This creates a challenge for properly modelling such intermittent variable resources since: (i) their availability varies spatially and temporally and (ii) thus, their integration in power systems is determined by the configuration of transmission grids. Large energy system models usually adopt simplified approaches for modelling wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment and the power grid. This paper uses the recently developed TIMES-Brazil optimisation model to study the role of transmission bottlenecks in cost-effective long-term deployment of wind and solar power in the Brazilian energy system up to 2050. The model explicitly models the grid infrastructure of 29 regions in Brazil differentiated according to existing power plants, wind and solar availabilities, future RES potentials and power demand. Three different scenarios (Free Trade, Simplified Trade and Detailed Trade), with increasingly more detail in modelling electricity transmission lines, were tested. Findings show that a more detailed transmission infrastructure significantly affects capacity deployments and electricity prices. The grid connecting the North and South of Brazil was found to be the most important bottleneck affecting the deployment of solar in the country. Highlights • This study evaluates the relevance of modelling transmission for long-term planning. • It uses the TIMES model for exploring least-cost energy pathways for Brazil. • The existence of inner sub-regional limits can impact inter-regional expansion. • Less constrained scenarios may provide an optimistic view of RES expansion. • The more constrained scenario is 77% more expensive than the unbounded one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The Brazilian electricity system is an important example of a large country relying on a high renewable energy matrix with a major focus on hydropower, which has historically allowed for low carbon electricity production. However, the increase in the demand and climate change impacts on the availability of these renewable resources represent important challenges for long-term power planning. The contribution of this paper is twofold: Firstly, a first attempt to use the EnergyPLAN model for the analysis of the Brazilian electricity sector and in particular to study future scenarios is presented. Secondly, the possibility of achieving a 100% RES system is also addressed. The 100% RES scenario is found to be theoretically possible but a substantial increase in the overall installed capacity would be required, to support the grid mainly during the spring and summer season. The results underline the importance of seasonal complementarity of hydro and wind power and reveal how an increase in RES would add exportation potential, reducing also the Brazilian external energy dependency. The study identifies risk factors for these high RES scenarios and outlines several avenues for future research to address cost, environmental and technical uncertainties of the system. Highlights • The Brazilian power sector is analysed with EnergyPLAN computer model. • Renewable scenarios are compared for technical, cost, emissions and risk parameters. • The importance of seasonal complementarity of hydro and wind power is outlined. • The 100% RES scenario results in full decarbonization of the system at higher cost. • The 100% RES scenario results in higher exportation and lower importation potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investment decisions in renewable energy sources such as small hydro, wind power, biomass and solar are frequently made in the context of enormous uncertainty surrounding both intermittent generation and the highly volatile electricity spot prices that are used for clearing of trades. This paper presents a new portfolio-based approach for selecting long-term investments in small-scale renewable energy projects and matching contracts for the sale of the resulting electricity. Using this approach, we have formulated a stochastic optimisation model that maximises a holding company's risk-averse measure of value. Using an illustrative example representative of investment decisions within the Brazilian electricity system, we investigate the sensitivity of the optimised portfolio composition and commercialisation strategy to contract prices in the free contracting environment and to the decision maker's attitude towards risk. The numerical results demonstrate it is possible to reduce significantly financial risks, such as the price-quantity risk, not only by exploiting the complementarity of the considered renewable sources generation profiles, but also by selecting the optimal mix of commercialisation contracts from different markets. We find that the multi-market strategy generally results in appreciably higher optimal value than single-market strategies and can be applied to a wide range of renewable generators and contracts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although several studies have recognized the challenges brought about the high integration of Renewable Energy Sources (RES), research has yet to systematically investigate the effects of different levels of Energy Efficiency Measures (EEMs) on power systems with a high share of RES. The primary aim of this paper is to quantitatively evaluate the economic impact of different levels of energy efficiency investments in systems with a high share of RES, based on the case of Brazil. Our review analysis revealed a lack of understanding of how to calculate the Long-term Average Cost of Saved Electricity (LACoSE). Therefore, the methodological contribution of this research also lies in the proposition of a step-by-step procedure to estimate this variable. Findings of this study suggest that EEMs may result in a reduction in the expected new installed capacity between 1.9% and 10.3%, and from 0.4% to 4.3% for the total CO 2 emissions (for reductions in the final electricity demand varying from 1% to 5% respectively). This comes with a decrease in the overall system costs between 1.9% and 7.7%. The results provide further support for the hypothesis that the economic impacts of energy efficiency investments and its cost-effectiveness are affected by the share of RES in the power system and these type of measures may provide holistic benefits including not only economic advantages but also environmental and social improvements. The proposed methodology largely extends beyond the case addressed as it may provide valuable lessons for other electricity systems. • Cost-effectiveness of energy efficiency measures is assessed for a renewable system. • A methodology is proposed to calculate the Long-term Average Cost of Saved Electricity (LACoSE). • The economic benefits are positive for the power system evaluated. • Results are not highly influenced by the estimated LACoSE. • Findings would support the development of effective energy efficiency policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]