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This paper aims to investigate the impact of the macroeconomic uncertainty index (MU) on the futures returns of energy, including crude oil, heating oil, and natural gas. The quantile regression is used in this paper for examining the heterogeneity across market conditions. The empirical results show that changes in MU negatively affect futures returns of crude oil and heating oil in downward market conditions, and positive changes in MU dominate this impact. The MU changes also have a negative effect on natural gas futures returns in an extremely downward period, but this impact is not asymmetric. Further analysis indicates that speculation mitigates the negative impact of positive MU changes on crude oil futures returns during downward periods, while the association of the MU changes with the futures returns of heating oil and natural gas is not affected by speculation.

The energy market is extremely vulnerable to the uncertainty caused by the pandemic and leads to global lockdowns and stagnant economic activity. This study is important because energy prices (EPs) experience a dramatic decline due to the pandemic, which has negative consequences for the global economy. We aim to analyze EPs behaviour to coronavirus (COVID-19) from 2020:01 to 2021:05. The finding shows that EPs are extremely vulnerable to the uncertainty produced by the pandemic in the short run. The COVID-19 has a negative effect on EPs in the medium to upper quantile, which suggests that higher uncertainty caused by the pandemic results in rapid decline. However, the impact of the COVID-19 is greater on the oil prices (OPs) as compared to the natural gas (NGP) and the heating oil price (HOP). Moreover, the finding reveals that COVID-19 impact on EPs are consistently negative across all the quantile. The degree of the impact increases when the relationship changes from short to long run. The pandemic has affected the energy price in the short run, which needs prudent policies to fully grasp the magnitude of the COVID-19 impact on energy prices., Graphical abstract Image 1

Energy futures market has occupied an extremely significant position in financial markets, attracting a large amount of scholars to search out its price formation mechanism. To predict the price of energy futures has become a pivotal issue. For the sake of enhancing the forecasting accuracy of energy futures prices, a novel model ST-GRU is proposed by embedding stochastic time intensity function into gated recurrent unit model (GRU). ST-GRU, GRU, LSTM, WNN and BPNN models are applied to predict the daily closing prices of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, Brent crude oil, Natural gas and Heating oil respectively. In error assessment, the prediction effects of various models are compared by general benchmarks. Then composite multiscale cross-sample entropy (CMSCE) algorithm is utilized to analyze the synchronization between the predicted value and the real value. In order to further predict the volatility of futures closing price and demonstrate the superiority of the ST-GRU model, the above-mentioned five models are used to predict and analyze 5-day, 10-day and 20-day moving average logarithmic return (MALR) series of four energy indexes. Finally, comparative experiments indicate that ST-GRU model has the highest prediction precision and the best learning performance.

In coal-dominated regions, hydrogen by-product from refineries can be used to replace coal as heating fuel. This can be a viable method for reducing CO2 emissions. Given that hydrogen injection into existing natural gas pipeline networks is an economical way to utilise this clean gas, this paper explores its benefits by studying its supply chain optimisation and analysing its reliability. First, a mixed-integer linear programming model is developed to minimise transport and dissatisfaction costs. Material balance, supply and transport of natural gas, operation of pipeline networks, and hydrogen injection are considered as constraints. The operating plans of a regional natural gas supply chain (NGSC), with and without hydrogen injection, are optimised. Then, three types of indicators – economic indices, coal and hydrogen as percentages of total energy consumption, and CO2 emissions – are applied to compare the performance of the NGSC in different situations. A case verifies the proposed model and shows the influence of utilising hydrogen in an NGSC. The optimal operating plans under one standard and two non-standard conditions are calculated, and the reliability of the supply chain is analysed. Results illustrate that injecting hydrogen in the NGSC is beneficial in reducing CO2 emissions and operating costs.

A new type of district energy network providing simultaneously heating and cooling services is being investigated. It is based on the use of CO2 as a heat transfer fluid by taking advantage of the latent heat of vaporization, to store and transfer heat across the network. The goal of the present study is to determine the performance of a CO2 network when applied to a real urban area. It focuses first on determining the requirements for the various thermal energy services for a part of Geneva's City Centre. The final energy consumption is first computed for the energy conversion technologies now in place in this area e namely heating oil boilers and air cooled compression chillers. Then the new final energy consumption is computed considering that a CO2 network is used instead of boilers and air cooled compression chillers. For the area considered the CO2 network's variant leads to a final energy consumption of 10,968 MWh of electricity. It represents a reduction of 84.4% when compared to the boilers and chillers case. A comparative profitability analysis of the two cases is also presented. The analysis takes into account investment, heating oil and/or electricity, equipment replacement, operation, and maintenance costs, as well as the sales of energy services. For an interest rate of 6%, a price of the delivered heating/cooling services at 0.108 V kW h 1 and a lifetime of 40 years, the conventional technology does not reach profitability while the CO2 network achieves a profit in present value of 69.59 million V and the break-even point is reached after 5.5 years of operation.

A multiproduct portfolio hedge ratio strategy for oil futures is investigated using a multivariate GARCH model based on dynamic conditional correlation and an error correction model (DCC-ECM-MVGARCH). By considering the characteristics of refiner profits from crack spread and the mutual relations among crude oil, gasoline and heating oil spot and future prices, we estimate the time-varying optimal hedge ratios for the oil-cracking margin. In addition, a naive strategy, a traditional OLS model and dynamic B-GARCH model are selected to compare with our model for hedge effectiveness. Comparison of hedge effectiveness for in-sample and out-of-sample data reveals that the dynamic DCC-ECM-MVGARCH model is more sensitive to market fluctuations, provides a more accurate description of changes in volatility and has more advantages than other models. Therefore, the empirical results prove that application of the DCC-ECM-MVGARCH model for hedging of oil market portfolio can play an important role in avoiding the double risk of crude oil and oil product markets for refineries.

Biodiesel is receiving increasing attention as a partial substitute for home heating oil. The properties that make it a suitable fuel for use in diesel engines also make it suitable for heating systems using pressure jet burner technology. In the UK, however, there are a significant number of vaporising burners whose suitability for operation with biodiesel has not been properly studied. The purpose of this study was therefore to investigate the use of different blends of biodiesel and kerosene in a production Aga that employed a sleeve-type vaporising burner. It was found that significant fouling of the burner well would occur within a short period of time, even with a blend as low as 5% by volume of biodiesel in kerosene. Further investigation revealed the build-up to consist of polymerised biodiesel, most likely triggered by heat. Factors contributing to the rate and extent of fouling are thought to include the type of vegetable oil used as feedstock for the biodiesel, as well as the degree of prior utilisation of the feedstock oil. Further investigation is warranted, possibly with the use of suitable fuel additives to inhibit the polymerisation process.

This study strives to clarify to what extent the improved insulation of new buildings affects the economically rational choice of heating supply. In the Danish context, natural gas furnaces show to be economically rational for the society only in few cases. District heating should be advocated only for areas with a high concentration of heat demand, primarily areas with apartment buildings. An increased use of heat pumps (HP) should be advocated as the ambient air HP show to be the cheapest of the individual heating systems—and in most cases cheaper than the collective heating systems. The taxation of energy products in relation to space heating should be revised as the economics from the consumer's point of view do not comply with those from the society's point of view.

The fuel adulteration problem is associated with environmental pollution, problems with engine performance, and tax losses. Here, results are presented of a survey in leaded gasoline and automotive diesel, obtained from service stations representative of all the oil companies operating in Greece. For this purpose, 165 samples of gasoline and 420 samples of automotive diesel were collected from various parts of the country during the years 1998, 1999, and 2000. The gasoline samples were subsequently analyzed for their key properties and for any adulteration with cheaper unleaded gasoline. Octane number, benzene, olefins, and total aromatics were determined with the mid-IR method, and the sulfur content with a UVF elemental analyzer. The analysis of the automotive diesel samples concerned some key properties such as the cetane index, density, sulfur content, and the distillation properties of the fuel. The results indicate that there is a large fluctuation of fuel properties among the oil marketers. Examination of the quinizarin content (the tracer of unleaded gasoline) has shown that 11 leaded gasoline samples (8.8%) were mixed with unleaded gasoline, 5 leaded gasoline samples (4%) were mixed with aromatic solvents, whereas about 28% of the automotive diesel samples suffered from some degree of adulteration, mainly with cheaper heating fuel; and one automotive diesel sample was adulterated with a lighter fraction. Fuel misuse is a common problem not only for European countries but for practically every nation in the world. The European Union recently expressed its concern on this issue, mandating that by the year 2002 all the member states will promote the development of a uniform system for fuel quality monitoring.

An oil-shale-fueled process for coproduction of oil and electricity is analyzed. The oil product constitutes 62% of fuel input energy, electricity 8% and losses (mostly steam turbine reject heat) 30% of input energy. A conceptual plant producing 8,000 barrels/day of shale oil and 65 MW e electricity from 11,000 ton/day mined oil shale is designed with respect to major process units. The economic analysis of the plant is based on published cost data for similar processes. The coproduction concept leads to a relatively simple plant resembling a circulating fluidized bed boiler (with the addition of a pyrolyzer for oil generation from the oil shale feed). Process advantages include conversion of the gaseous fuel by-product to electricity thus eliminating expensive gas treatment facilities, and upgrading of the primary oil by particulate removal and partial coking in the pyrolyzer eliminating the need for on-site hydrotreating. The produced shale oil costs $30/barrel with an assumed 15% interest charge on the investment. If electric power yielded more than the $0.05/kWh assumed, the oil would be less expensive.

A computer analysis of solar heating has been performed for Turkey. Results are presented for two prototype buildings using either fuel-oil or coal under different heating loads in three climatic regions (Antalya, Ankara and Kars). Cumulative cost flows are compared for the life-cycle present value technique. Optimum design magnitudes are determined for maximum life-cycle savings. The payback period for capital invested in a solar system, internal rate of return, and total savings are found for the optimum conditions. Variations of system performance are estimated. The effects of collector slope, proportionate storage tank volume, heat-exchanger parameters, and the design load on system performance are studied. Finally the economics of solar heating in Turkey are discussed and recommendations made for increased utilization of solar energy.

The objectives of this study were the development and application of a model of residential space-heating demand, which incorporates economic, family-composition and structural housing factors as explanatory variables. We assess the impact of home retrofitting and other conservation actions on residential energy demand by analyzing data collected as part of a national sample of Canadian households, which are supplemented with rate-structure and energy-price data. Models of demand for space-heating fuels are estimated for residential users of electricity, natural gas and oil. Parameter estimates are corrected for sample-selection bias. The results indicate that residential consumers of space-heating fuels in Canada exhibit a price response that is significantly different from zero. Further, households facing higher than average utility prices before experiencing a fuel-price increase will, in the long run, exhibit a unitary price response.

This paper provides evidence of current levels of household insulation, including storm windows and storm doors. A logistic probability model is used to determine the effect of heating fuel price, climate, and household characteristics (such as age of head and income) on the likelihood that a household will be well insulated or will intend to add insulation in the near future. Households headed by individuals under 50 years of age are better insulated, as are households with annual income greater than $20,000. Middle income families ($15,000–30,000/yr) are the most likely to plan to add insulation, while low income families are least likely. Households with a head over 65 years of age are less likely to plan to add insulation. These findings, in addition to evidence concerning households which are currently poorly insulated and do not plan to add insulation, are used to recommend modification of recently passed energy legislation.

Nova Scotia could reduce its dependence on foreign imported oil by increasing the harvest of surplus hardwood volume and using the low quality wood as fuel for domestic heating. The current surplus of ca. 180,000 cords/year could be used to replace 15% of the home heating oil. Present value analysis shows that a wood-fired home heating system is less expensive, in most cases, than a comparable oil-fired system. An average home could save as much as $10,000 over 20 years by investing in wood heat. Increasing the hardwood harvest could generate at least $3.6 million/year of income and using wood heat will improve the province's balance of payments. The increased harvesting would also provide economic stimulus for more intensive forest management and thus increased yields, values of forest products, and employment in the rural economy.

A comprehensive evaluation was conducted of the Michigan Residential Conservation Service (RCS) home energy audit program. Using a combination of telephone interviews and utility company fuel consumption records, the impact of the RCS program was assessed. Results indicated that participants rated the service very positively and also subsequently performed more energy conservation actions than a randomly selected comparison group, with low and moderate cost actions appearing to be most affected. Convergence among three alternative methods of analyzing fuel consumption impacts indicated a net energy savings of approx. 3% of heating fuel use of audit participants.

The microeconomic foundations of the demand for insulation are constructed. In the corresponding derived demand relationship, the price of heat appears explicitly as an explanatory variable for the quality demanded of insulation. Its exclusion from the estimated equations and the exclusion of other relevent micro variables (e.g. size of household) is suggested to be the reason for the “wrong sign” that was obtained for the price of heating fuel.