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This paper investigates factors associated with variation in daily total (electricity and gas) energy consumption in domestic buildings using linked pre-COVID-19 smart meter, weather, building thermal characteristics, and socio-technical survey data covering appliance ownership, demographics, behaviours, and attitudes for two nested sub-samples of 1418 and 682 British households selected from the Smart Energy Research Laboratory (SERL) Observatory panel. Linear mixed effects modelling resulted in adjusted R2 between 63% and 80% depending on sample size and combinations of contextual data used. Increased daily energy consumption was significantly associated (p -value < 0.05, VIF < 5) with: households living in buildings with more rooms and bedrooms, that are older, more detached, have air-conditioning, and experience colder (more heating degree days) or less sunny weather; households with more adult occupants, more children, older adult occupants, higher heating temperature setpoints, and that do not try to save energy. The results demonstrate the value of smart meter data linked with contextual data for improving understanding of energy demand in British housing. Accredited UK researchers are invited to apply to access the data, which has recently been updated to include over 13,000 households from across Great Britain. This paper provides guidance on appropriate methods to use when analysing the data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Over the technologies' typical 20-year lifetime, most UK dwellings have a cost optimum low-carbon heating system using air source heat pumps. • Dwelling properties and spatiotemporal variabilities significantly change the optimum low-carbon technology from blue hydrogen boilers, direct electrical heating, and air source heat pumps, to ground source heat pumps. • Direct electrical heating is economically preferred over heat pumps in lower demand dwellings and with analysis over shorter timescales. • Incentives for low-carbon heating need to target adoption of efficient technologies to reduce the greater increase in network demands. An understanding of heating technologies from the consumers' perspective is critical to ensure low-carbon technologies are adopted for reducing their current associated emissions. Existing studies from the consumers' perspective do not compare and optimise the full range and combinations of potential heating systems. There is also little consideration of how spatiotemporal and dwelling variations combined alter the economic and environmental effectiveness of technologies. The novelty of this paper is the creation and use of a new comprehensive framework to capture the range of heating technologies and their viability for any specific dwelling's traits and climate from customers' perspective which is missing from current studies. The model optimises combinations of prime heaters, energy sources, ancillary solar technologies and sizes, thermal energy storage sizes and tariffs with hourly heating simulation across a year and compares their operation, capital, and lifetime costs alongside emissions to realise the true preferential heating systems for customers, which could be used by various stakeholders. Using the UK as a case study, the results show electrified heating is generally the optimum lifetime cost solution, mainly from air source heat pumps coupled with photovoltaics. However, direct electrical heating becomes more economically viable as dwelling demands reduce from smaller dwellings or warmer climates, as shorter durations of the ownership are considered, or with capital cost constraints from lower income households. Understanding this is of high importance, as without correctly targeted incentives, a larger uptake of direct electrical heating may occur, which will burden the electrical network and generation to a greater extent than more efficient heat pumps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]