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In Europe, the final energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of residential and commercial building stocks account for approximately 40% of energy and emissions. A building stock model (BSM) is a method of assessing the energy demand and GHG emissions of building stocks and developing pathways for energy and GHG emission reduction. The most common approach to building stock modeling is to construct archetypes that are taken to representing large segments of the stock. This paper introduces a new method of building stock modeling based on the generation of synthetic building stocks. By drawing on relevant research, the developed methodology uses aggregate national data and combines it with various data sources to generate a disaggregated synthetic building stock. The methodology is implemented and validated for the residential building stock of Switzerland. The results demonstrate that the energy demand and GHG emissions can vary greatly across the stock. These and other indicators vary significantly within common building stock segments that consider only few attributes such as building type and construction period. Furthermore, the results indicate a separation of the stock in terms of GHG emissions between old fossil fuel-heated buildings and new and refurbished buildings that are heated by renewable energy. Generating a disaggregated synthetic building stock allows for a discrete representation of various building states. This enables a more realistic representation of past building stock alterations, such as refurbishment, compared with commonly used archetypes, and not relying on more extensive data sources and being able to accommodate a wide variation of data types. The developed methodology can be extended in numerous manners and lays groundwork for future studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper models scenarios for energy label based retrofit targets for Switzerland's residential building sector for 2050. It takes into account the magnitude and uncertainty in the energy performance gap (EPG) between labelled and actual energy consumption using actual energy performance data, as previous work highlighted that the EPG is not evenly distributed across different building labels. A building stock retrofit model is developed to estimate the potential energy savings from improving building performance through increasing energy label rating. A Monte Carlo analysis is applied using real EPG distribution data. The uncertainty in total energy savings is calculated for business-as-usual case and for three scenarios based on the different retrofit incentive policies of different Swiss Cantons. This allows to quantify the uncertainties in energy and emission outcomes of different policy targets arising from the variable EPG. The results show that with the business-as-usual approach it is impossible to achieve the objectives set (9.7 Mt CO 2 -eq/y vs 0.4 Mt CO 2 -eq/y by 2050). On the other hand, to reach the targets, a more aggressive policy aiming at renovating all buildings to the highest standards is necessary, that translates into a renovation rate that seems unrealistically high (3.4% per year until 2050 vs the proposed 1.4%). The contribution is to inform stakeholders designing new policies (notably the EU Renovation Wave policies) of the risk related to energy policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• In 2017, renewable heat used in residential buildings in AT and CH was 48% and 30% • Renewable heat must be increased by 131% in AT by 2040 and 210% in CH by 2050. • Public subsidies contributed to 51% and 36% of total heat savings in AT and CH. • AT relies more on public subsidies and has a lower cost-effectiveness of policies. • CH obtains similar heat savings with eight times lesser public subsidies. Reducing heat demand and decarbonising heat supply are essential if countries have to meet net zero emission targets. This paper presents a comparative assessment of the impact of energy efficiency polices for heat demand reduction and heat decarbonisation in the buildings sector (2000–2017) in Austria (AT) and Switzerland (CH). It assesses the heat demand, heat supply, effect of different factors on changes in total heat consumption, impact of energy policies that provide public subsidies for heating and compares the effectiveness of different policies and measures. The assessment shows that renewable heat supply in residential buildings has to be increased by about 150 PJ (130% increase from 2017) in AT by 2040 and by 120 PJ (210%) in CH by 2050, which is challenging. Energy savings from improvements in energy efficiency from 2000 to 2017 are 83 PJ in AT and 97 PJ in CH, but these are largely offset by increase in activity and wealth effects thereby resulting in small changes in final heat consumption. The average (2014–2017) annual public subsidies for heating were about 2500 million Euros and 310 million CHF and contributed to 51% and 36% share of energy saving in AT and CH respectively. Both countries achieved similar energy savings, albeit following different policy approaches. Public subsidies for heating are an important policy instrument in AT but have lower cost effectiveness. On the other hand, CH minimised the use of public spending by deploying other policies and funding measures that leveraged private investment to achieve similar energy savings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Linking top-down energy efficiency indicator analysis with bottom-up policy analysis. • Explaining the contribution of energy efficiency policies in Germany and Switzerland. • Analysing the counteracting effects to energy policy of rebound and non-compliance. This paper studies the factors underlying the evolution of the energy consumption for space heating in residential buildings by linking top-down analysis, based on meso -indicators, and bottom-up analysis, based on policy evaluations. The top-down analysis (i.e. the perspective from energy statistics) allows one to separate the change in total energy use into activity level, societal factors and energy efficiency gains. The explanatory power of the resulting meso-(statistical) indicators is often limited, if the underlying factors are not examined (e.g. changes in heating levels and patterns, weather effects, cost of energy and policies regarding insulation and heating system standards). We overcome most of these drawbacks by conducting a bottom-up analysis (i.e the perspective from single policy measures), which enables us to discern the contribution of energy efficiency policies to the changes observed with the meso -analysis. We focus on space heating consumption in the residential sectors for Germany and Switzerland. A major aim of this analysis is to show the contribution of energy efficiency policies (such as thermal building regulation, subsidy programmes, fiscal measures etc.) towards the changes in this indicator. The results show that the progress in energy efficiency (both autonomous and policy induced) in both countries had the greatest effect (-776 PJ for Germany, −42 PJ for Switzerland) regarding the change in energy consumption for space heating in the period from 2000 to 2016. However, the impacts of "technical and comfort" rebounds (+436 PJ for Germany, N/A for Switzerland) and other developments such as societal changes (+316 PJ for Germany, +35.5 PJ for Switzerland) were found to compensate for a significant part of the energy efficiency gains. In both countries, it was possible to link physical energy efficiency indicators to policy evaluation, but limitations were also identified which are primarily related to data gaps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]