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[Display omitted] • A whole system approach to studying a low-temperature HGSHP system. • 3D coupled TH model with realistic boundaries and dynamic heat pump COP. • Design of a HGSHP system to support a 5th generation DHC network. • Different factors on performance of the HGSHP system and ground thermal behaviour. • Ground moisture transfer, cooling process and buried depth are important. Exploitation of shallow ground and its low-grade heat potential is fundamental to designing 5th generation district heating and cooling (DHC) networks. Horizontal ground-source heat pump (HGSHP) systems are a common way to utilize shallow geothermal energy. Realistic estimation and prediction of performance of a HGSHP system and shallow ground thermal behaviour should consider the whole system including building heating and cooling load, heat pump and ground heat exchanger, and the ground. This should be accompanied by realistic atmospheric and ground conditions. In this paper, a three-dimensional coupled thermal–hydraulic model with realistic boundary conditions adopting a whole system approach is presented. Dynamic heat pump coefficient of performance (COP) that depends on seasonal variation of heating/cooling demand and ground conditions are also considered. Model validations are conducted against experimental and analytical results in literatures. The model is applied for evaluating a HGSHP system to support development of a 5th generation DHC network on a potential site in the UK. Several influencing factors, such as ground moisture transfer, building thermal load mode, buried depth of ground loops, and initial ground temperature profile are studied to assess performance efficiency of the HGSHP system and evolution of ground thermal behaviour in response to heat extraction or rejection into the ground. The results show that 5% of the monthly total heat demand of the site could be met by the designed HGSHP system, consisting of 200 U-shaped ground loops buried at the depth of 3 m and pure water as the heat carrier. Overlooking the ground moisture transfer or hyperbolizing the ground saturation would overestimate the load-carrying capacity of the HGSHP system. The HGSHP system is more efficient with a higher heat pump COP under the heating and cooling mode than under the heating-only mode. Predicted performance of the HGSHP system improves with buried depth of the ground loops. The results also show that a 1 ℃ increase in the undisturbed ground temperature could suffice up to 8% of the monthly total heat demand of the site. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Over the technologies' typical 20-year lifetime, most UK dwellings have a cost optimum low-carbon heating system using air source heat pumps. • Dwelling properties and spatiotemporal variabilities significantly change the optimum low-carbon technology from blue hydrogen boilers, direct electrical heating, and air source heat pumps, to ground source heat pumps. • Direct electrical heating is economically preferred over heat pumps in lower demand dwellings and with analysis over shorter timescales. • Incentives for low-carbon heating need to target adoption of efficient technologies to reduce the greater increase in network demands. An understanding of heating technologies from the consumers' perspective is critical to ensure low-carbon technologies are adopted for reducing their current associated emissions. Existing studies from the consumers' perspective do not compare and optimise the full range and combinations of potential heating systems. There is also little consideration of how spatiotemporal and dwelling variations combined alter the economic and environmental effectiveness of technologies. The novelty of this paper is the creation and use of a new comprehensive framework to capture the range of heating technologies and their viability for any specific dwelling's traits and climate from customers' perspective which is missing from current studies. The model optimises combinations of prime heaters, energy sources, ancillary solar technologies and sizes, thermal energy storage sizes and tariffs with hourly heating simulation across a year and compares their operation, capital, and lifetime costs alongside emissions to realise the true preferential heating systems for customers, which could be used by various stakeholders. Using the UK as a case study, the results show electrified heating is generally the optimum lifetime cost solution, mainly from air source heat pumps coupled with photovoltaics. However, direct electrical heating becomes more economically viable as dwelling demands reduce from smaller dwellings or warmer climates, as shorter durations of the ownership are considered, or with capital cost constraints from lower income households. Understanding this is of high importance, as without correctly targeted incentives, a larger uptake of direct electrical heating may occur, which will burden the electrical network and generation to a greater extent than more efficient heat pumps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]