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A 5th generation district heating (5GDH) system consists of a low-temperature network used as a heat source for de-centralized heat pumps to serve heating demand. Until now, there is a lack of studies looking into the economic aspect of implementing the 5GDH concept. The performance characteristics, system dynamics, and economic feasibility of the 5GDH system are insufficiently investigated in cold climates. This paper aims to bridge the research gap by performing the techno-economic analysis of a 5GDH system using a case study based in Tallinn, Estonia. A detailed thermo-hydraulic simulation model is constructed in TRNSYS and Fluidit Heat. In addition, the uncertainty and sensitivities on the economic performance are analysed using Monte Carlo method implemented in Python. The study further analyses the effectiveness of using solar power technologies in reducing the cost of heating. For designed boundary conditions, the system can deliver heat at levelised cost of heating (LCOH) of 80 €/MWh. Integration of photovoltaic up to a limited capacity results in 1 % reduction when compared to the base case LCOH. The economic benefit of photovoltaic thermal is lower compared to photovoltaic. This study can provide a benchmark for the application of 5GDH systems in heating dominated regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous cost-optimal studies have been undertaken by EU member states to define minimum energy performance requirements for buildings within that member state in accordance with the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive. As few of these studies have examined the effect of heating and ventilation system parameters on life cycle cost (LCC) and energy use in detail, this paper analysed 84 HVAC solution-sets, including parameters for the heating supply system, heating distribution system and ventilation system, for a case study in Norway. The choice of heating supply system was the dominant parameter, with ground source heat pump solutions offering the lowest purchased energy use and LCC. Electric water heating and district heating systems had low capital costs which make these options more attractive to property developers looking for a good return on investment. Using an exhaust ventilation system with an exhaust air heat pump lowered LCC and capital costs for ground source heat pump and district heating systems but does not meet current Norwegian energy regulations. Despite using more energy, a constant setpoint schedule resulted in a lower LCC than a variable setpoint system due to the variation in hourly energy pricing and the dominant role of monthly pricing based on peak load. The choice of yearly heating strategy and heat emitter had a relatively small impact on energy use, capital cost and LCC. With all the parameters combined, there was variation within each heating system of up to 21 kWh/(m2∙year) in energy use, 78 Euro/m2 in capital cost and 236 Euro/m2 in LCC. Therefore, it is important that such system parameters are considered in cost-optimal assessments to give a fair comparison of HVAC systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • A whole system approach to studying a low-temperature HGSHP system. • 3D coupled TH model with realistic boundaries and dynamic heat pump COP. • Design of a HGSHP system to support a 5th generation DHC network. • Different factors on performance of the HGSHP system and ground thermal behaviour. • Ground moisture transfer, cooling process and buried depth are important. Exploitation of shallow ground and its low-grade heat potential is fundamental to designing 5th generation district heating and cooling (DHC) networks. Horizontal ground-source heat pump (HGSHP) systems are a common way to utilize shallow geothermal energy. Realistic estimation and prediction of performance of a HGSHP system and shallow ground thermal behaviour should consider the whole system including building heating and cooling load, heat pump and ground heat exchanger, and the ground. This should be accompanied by realistic atmospheric and ground conditions. In this paper, a three-dimensional coupled thermal–hydraulic model with realistic boundary conditions adopting a whole system approach is presented. Dynamic heat pump coefficient of performance (COP) that depends on seasonal variation of heating/cooling demand and ground conditions are also considered. Model validations are conducted against experimental and analytical results in literatures. The model is applied for evaluating a HGSHP system to support development of a 5th generation DHC network on a potential site in the UK. Several influencing factors, such as ground moisture transfer, building thermal load mode, buried depth of ground loops, and initial ground temperature profile are studied to assess performance efficiency of the HGSHP system and evolution of ground thermal behaviour in response to heat extraction or rejection into the ground. The results show that 5% of the monthly total heat demand of the site could be met by the designed HGSHP system, consisting of 200 U-shaped ground loops buried at the depth of 3 m and pure water as the heat carrier. Overlooking the ground moisture transfer or hyperbolizing the ground saturation would overestimate the load-carrying capacity of the HGSHP system. The HGSHP system is more efficient with a higher heat pump COP under the heating and cooling mode than under the heating-only mode. Predicted performance of the HGSHP system improves with buried depth of the ground loops. The results also show that a 1 ℃ increase in the undisturbed ground temperature could suffice up to 8% of the monthly total heat demand of the site. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ground source heat pumps (GSHP) are one of the most efficient systems that offer a promising reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and energy use in buildings; however, the electrification of buildings' heating and cooling using GSHP is facing two critical challenges: its high initial cost and potential adverse impact on the electrical grid. In this paper, to address these challenges, two novel systems are proposed in which a battery, a water thermal storage tank, and a phase change material (PCM) thermal storage tank are integrated, in different configurations, with a conventional GSHP system. In these systems, the grid electricity during off-peak periods is stored as heat or electricity in the thermal or battery energy storage systems. The stored energy is then used in peak building load conditions to reduce the peak power demand on the grid. New numerical models are developed to quantify the proposed systems' benefits. Furthermore, these newly proposed systems are compared with the conventional systems used in Quebec, Canada, and three previously proposed worldwide systems. Simulations are conducted for different commonly used design practices, including undersized and adequately sized heat pump capacities. The results show that the proposed systems can reduce the peak power demand and total energy requirement of a conventional system by up to 65.4% (9.28 kW) and 67.0% (19,722 kWh), respectively. Furthermore, the proposed systems' borehole length decreases by up to 21.8% (39 m) compared to the conventional GSHP system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Novel methodology for calculating cost-optimized refurbishment roadmaps is presented. • Coupling of building model for refurbishment and system model for heating technologies. • Refurbishment roadmap include timing and refurbishment measures for specific buildings. • Applying the optimization achieves cost savings of 6–16 % and CO 2 savings of 6–59 % • Heat pumps play a central role in the context of CO 2 reduction. A novel methodology for calculating optimized refurbishment roadmaps is developed in this paper. The aim of the roadmaps is to determine when and how should which component of the building envelope and heat generation system be refurbished to achieve the lowest net present value. The integrated optimization approach couples a particle swarm optimization algorithm with a dynamic building simulation of the building envelope and the heat supply system. Due to a free selection of implementation times and refurbishment depth, the optimization method achieves the lowest net present value and high CO 2 reduction and is therefore an important contribution to achieve climate neutrality in the building stock. The method is exemplarily applied to a multi-family house built in 1970. In comparison to a standard refurbishment roadmap, cost savings of 6–16 % and CO 2 savings of 6–59 % are possible. The sensitivity of the refurbishment roadmap measures is analyzed on the basis of a parametric analysis. Robust optimization results are obtained with a mean refurbishment level of approx. 50 kWh/m2/a of the building envelope. The preferred heat generation system is a bivalent brine-heat pump system with a share of 70 % of the heat load being covered by the electric heat pump. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] This paper introduces a non-linear grey-box (GB) model based on stochastic differential equations that describes the heat dynamics of a school building in Denmark, equipped with a water-based heating system. The building is connected to a local district heating network through a heat exchanger. The heat is delivered to the rooms mainly through radiators and partially through a ventilation system. A monitoring system based on IoT sensors provides data on indoor climate in the rooms and on the heat load of the building. Using this data, we estimate unknown states and parameters of a model of the building's heating system using the maximum likelihood method. Important novelties of this paper include models of the water flow in the circuit and the state of the valves in the radiator thermostats. The non-linear model accurately predicts the indoor air temperature, return water temperature and heat load. The ideas behind the model lay a foundation for GB models of buildings that use different kinds of water-based heating systems such as air-to-water/water-to-water heat pumps. Such GB models enable model predictive control to control e.g. the indoor air climate or provide flexibility services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Over the technologies' typical 20-year lifetime, most UK dwellings have a cost optimum low-carbon heating system using air source heat pumps. • Dwelling properties and spatiotemporal variabilities significantly change the optimum low-carbon technology from blue hydrogen boilers, direct electrical heating, and air source heat pumps, to ground source heat pumps. • Direct electrical heating is economically preferred over heat pumps in lower demand dwellings and with analysis over shorter timescales. • Incentives for low-carbon heating need to target adoption of efficient technologies to reduce the greater increase in network demands. An understanding of heating technologies from the consumers' perspective is critical to ensure low-carbon technologies are adopted for reducing their current associated emissions. Existing studies from the consumers' perspective do not compare and optimise the full range and combinations of potential heating systems. There is also little consideration of how spatiotemporal and dwelling variations combined alter the economic and environmental effectiveness of technologies. The novelty of this paper is the creation and use of a new comprehensive framework to capture the range of heating technologies and their viability for any specific dwelling's traits and climate from customers' perspective which is missing from current studies. The model optimises combinations of prime heaters, energy sources, ancillary solar technologies and sizes, thermal energy storage sizes and tariffs with hourly heating simulation across a year and compares their operation, capital, and lifetime costs alongside emissions to realise the true preferential heating systems for customers, which could be used by various stakeholders. Using the UK as a case study, the results show electrified heating is generally the optimum lifetime cost solution, mainly from air source heat pumps coupled with photovoltaics. However, direct electrical heating becomes more economically viable as dwelling demands reduce from smaller dwellings or warmer climates, as shorter durations of the ownership are considered, or with capital cost constraints from lower income households. Understanding this is of high importance, as without correctly targeted incentives, a larger uptake of direct electrical heating may occur, which will burden the electrical network and generation to a greater extent than more efficient heat pumps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Simulation of residential building energy supply with heat pump or hydrogen systems. • 2050: Hydrogen economically-viable if H 2 -/Elec.-price is less than 34–61 % per kWh. • For conservative price predictions: Electric heat pumps are most economical solution. • Energy carrier switch for single-family houses: H 2 -/Elec.-price below 44 % per kWh. • Energy carrier switch for multi-family houses: H 2 -/Elec.-price below 58 % per kWh. • Fuel cells are emerging as an economically-viable option for multi-family houses. Fossil-fueled heating in the building sector is responsible for 16 % of Germany's total CO 2 emissions. Options for the climate-neutral heating of buildings include renewable electricity or renewable hydrogen. In this paper, we conduct a bottom-up study to investigate the role of hydrogen in the climate-neutral energy supply of ten selected residential buildings in comparison to electricity-based systems. Based on a demand simulation and linear optimization of the supply system, sensitivity analyses identify the threshold values of the hydrogen price for the use of hydrogen technologies (hydrogen boilers or fuel cells) in building energy systems and make the quantities of hydrogen consumed visible. The results specify the first installations of hydrogen-operated fuel cells in multi-family houses if the hydrogen price reaches 0.17 €/kWh H2 in 2050 at an electricity price of 0.31 €/kWh el. Generally, for different building types and electricity supply prices, it indicates that the use of hydrogen becomes economically-viable if the price of hydrogen supply is in the range of 34–61 % of the price of the electricity supply per kWh and below. For the case of green hydrogen obtained using renewable electricity, it is highly questionable whether hydrogen supply will be that much cheaper than direct electricity supply, making its economical use in buildings uncertain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • In the US, carbon savings are readily achievable by transitioning to heat pump technologies for the vast majority of homes. • The heat pump performance required to achieve carbon and cost neutrality varies by a factor of four across the US. • Energy cost neutrality is much harder to achieve than carbon neutrality. • Achieving carbon and energy costs savings is much easier when replacing older, low efficiency equipment. In order to meet climate goals, it will be necessary to significantly reduce the greenhouse gases emitted by homes. A key factor in the US is to reduce the on-site combustion of fossil fuels for heating end-uses and to replace this with use of electric heat pump technologies connected to a low-carbon grid. The replacement of natural gas furnaces with electric heat pumps is a key home decarbonization strategy. However, the potential for space heating electrification to reduce greenhouse gas emissions depends on the carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e) content of the electricity used by the heat pump. This varies considerably depending on the source of electricity, with large state to state variability. Furthermore, household energy costs are likely to be impacted by the electrification of space heating, because retail energy prices for both natural gas and electricity in each state vary by factors of seven and four, respectively. Contractors, energy programs, government and building code officials, as well as consumers need clear indications of the likely CO 2 e and energy cost impacts of proposed electrification projects, because these will affect decarbonization choices and rationales around scaled heating electrification. Government and utility programs also need to be aware of the likely outcomes of any supported/incentivized measures. In this paper, we investigate these effects by looking at new metrics to analyze the change in CO 2 e emitted and the cost to meet home heating loads when switching from a natural gas furnace to a heat pump for the contiguous 48 states of the mainland US. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]