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[Display omitted] • Carbon emissions are explored in China's building operations from provincial perspective. • GDIM is employed to factorize ten affecting factors of CO 2 emissions in building sub-sectors. • CO 2 emissions of building sub-sectors are predicted with dynamic simulation. • The contribution of provinces to the change and peak of national emissions are discussed. Carbon emissions from building operations have a critical impact on achieving carbon peaking goal in China. However, the provincial emission performance in building operations are quite different and it is still unidentified how they affect the national emission change and peaking target, making national emission reduction target hard to implement at the provincial level. This paper explores the driving factors leading to emission changes and examines the prospective emission peaks in China and China's provinces by adopting generalized Divisia index method (GDIM) and the combination of scenario analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. Furthermore, the regional emission heterogeneity and the contribution of provinces to the change and peak of national emissions are discussed to identify regions and provinces that should be focused on emission monitoring. Results show that in China and most Chinese provinces, energy consumption of commercial buildings, energy consumption and floor space of urban residential buildings besides income improvement, and the per capita CO 2 emissions of rural residential buildings contributed greatly to emission growth. Under current policies, commercial and urban residential buildings in most provinces would fail to reach their emission peaks ahead of schedule. The urban residential buildings in the northern region, commercial and rural residential buildings in the eastern region caused higher CO 2 emissions. At the provincial level, Shandong, Shanxi and Hebei made the top contribution to total emissions of commercial, urban residential and rural residential buildings, respectively. Shandong and the provinces in north China of urban residential buildings and four provinces including Shandong, Guangdong, Hebei and Zhejiang of commercial and rural residential buildings had the significant impact on the uncertainty of the peaking time of CO 2 emissions. These findings provide a strong decision-making reference for Chinese government to formulate targeted regional emission reduction policies in building operations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The data requirements of quota methods are summarized, and a city-scale database containing 670 credible government office buildings is established. • By comparing the processes, the results and applicability, the selection basis of quota methods under different conditions is refined. • A flow chart of the formulation process and method selection of city-level building energy consumption quotas is constructed. • It is proposed that special attention should be paid to the outliers, and the characteristics of outliers in Chongqing are summarized. Energy consumption quota policies are effective management measures to promote energy conservation and emission reduction in China. Cities need to choose an appropriate method to formulate local energy consumption quota standards. This paper is based on the data of 670 government office buildings in Chongqing and the selected quantile method (QM), quota-level method (QLM) and multiple linear regression (MLR) method, which are widely used in the formulation of city-level energy quotas. By comparing their interpretability, evaluation, consistency and stability, the application conditions and applicability of each method are summarized. MLR has the strongest explanatory power but the highest requirements for the technology and information dimensions. The QLM is more explanatory and stable than the QM and is more suitable for the initial stage of energy quota management. When using the QLM, we should consider scientific classifications and reasonable quota levels. Special attention should be given to "outliers" with abnormal evaluations of the quota results. The outliers in Chongqing are characterized as buildings that have been used for more than 10 years and have an area of less than 5000 m2. Finally, this paper constructed a flow chart of the formulation process and method selection to help policymakers better understand how to choose the most appropriate method and identify inefficient buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]