Search

The current study uses a new methodology where the assessment of building cooling demand savings is obtained through a redefined concept of the Climatic Cooling Potential (CCP). This concept allows for the direct estimation of energy savings in buildings by the use of different passive cooling systems at a large spatiotemporal scale. In this paper, we apply this method to assess the impact of climate change on the future potential of Direct Ventilation and Evaporative Cooling. To do so, a set of high resolution climate simulations for the Iberian Peninsula for present and future climate, performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), were used. Three passive cooling simulations were conducted: the first one employs the hindcast simulation where WRF is forced by the reanalysis ERA-Interim for the 1989–1999 period (hindcast); the second employs the EC-EARTH forced historical run ranging from 1970 to 2000 (historical) and the third also forced EC-EARTH but for 2070–2100 (future). An eleven-year period was extracted from the historical run and validated against the first, the hindcast. The similitude of the results provided confidence on the ability of the EC-EARTH forced runs to correctly simulate climate and thus allowing the assessment of the effect of climate change in the outcome of the passive systems and cooling demand savings in buildings. The results show that the CCP conserves its spatial heterogeneity for both historical and future, but presents lower values for the future due to the increase in temperatures. Nevertheless, this reduction is mostly below 20% over the entire Iberian Peninsula along the annual cycle, for both Direct Ventilation and Evaporative Cooling. This means that even in the context of a changing climate, these kind of systems can still offer valuable reductions on the cooling demand of buildings. Furthermore, most of the reductions in the CCP, caused by the increase in temperatures, can be surpassed by increasing the flow rate or can even be compensated by the increase in Cooling Demand as a consequence of the rising temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Future-TMY (F-TMY) and Morphing methodologies are compared in 14 Iberian cities. • Morphing sensitive analysis using 3 different files is performed. • High-quality Morphing and F-TMY have similar climate and BES performances (7%−8%). • F-TMY is representative of the multi-year simulation for BES applications. • Low-quality Morphing leads to average errors between 16% to 20%. In the last decade, building energy simulation (BES) became a central component in building energy systems' design and optimization. For each building location, BES requires one year of hourly weather data. Most buildings are designed to last 50+ years, consequently, the building design phase should include BES with future weather files considering climate change. This paper presents a comparative study of two methods to produce future climate hourly data files for BES: Morphing and typical meteorological year of future climate (F-TMY). The study uses data from a high-resolution (9 km) regional climate atmospheric model simulation of Iberia, spanning 10 years of historical and future hourly data. This study compares both methods by analyzing anomalies in air temperature, and the impact in BES predictions of annual and peak energy consumption for space heating, cooling and ventilation in 4 buildings. Additionally, this study performs a sensitivity analysis of morphing method. The analysis shows that F-TMY is representative of the multi-year simulation for BES applications. A high-quality Morphed TMY weather file has a similar performance compared to F-TMY (average difference: 8% versus 7%). Morphing based on different baseline climates, low-grid resolution and/or outdated climate projections leads to BES average differences of 16%-20%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]