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Carbon Capture and Storage is being actively developed for deployment in fossil fuel power stations in an attempt to reduce future emissions of CO2 due to concerns about climate change. The deployment of this technology will cause an inevitable reduction in the overall efficiency of any electricity generation plant leading to an increase in demand for the fossil fuels used to power the generation process. This paper estimates the average reduction in generation efficiency caused by the imposition of Carbon Capture and Storage and considers its effects upon the depletion rate of global coal reserves. Future production of coal is modelled using a symmetrical production curve. The results suggest that the widespread adoption of Carbon Capture and Storage may result in the exhaustion of coal reserves several decades in advance of when this may happen if CCS is not deployed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A paradigm is a set of scientific and metaphysical beliefs that provide a theoretical framework within which scientific theories can be tested. Replacement of an existing paradigm by another is called a paradigm shift. Most of the following papers in this issue argue that an alternative paradigm is needed for the functioning of the so-called greenhouse effect of the Earth and hence for the explanation of observed climatic change. Some others contest it. The observed coincidence between global warming and rise of CO2 in the atmosphere over the last century - more accurately measured over the last 30 years of it - need not indicate a causal relationship, and it certainly need not give rise to global catastrophe. An assumed correlation is based on the expectation that the infrared radiation from CO2 contributes significantly to the greenhouse effect of the Earth. However, irregularities in the trends raise doubts of such a simple causal relationship and, at least, considerable doubt about the magnitude of such an expected effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eminent climatologists support the opinion of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that rising global average temperature is due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions. A number dispute this. This paper is written by a physical scientist aiming to understand the controversy for himself. An elementary account is given of the physical theory of the Earth's average temperature so as to introduce the principal parameters: solar irradiance; earth's albedo; physics of the factors determining the emissivity of the earth. The rise in mean global temperature observed intermittently over the last one hundred years has markedly slowed over the last ten. This discrepancy with the prediction of accepted models of a secular change of climate, coupled with the known uncertainties concerning the effects of clouds and of water vapour cast doubt on the accuracy of the models. The lead position of CO2 in forcing a change of climate is hence questioned. The apparent neglect of man-made changes in the distribution of water is emphasised. The uncertainties regarding the behaviour of water vapour and cloudiness must be resolved if the cited causes of any climate change are to be fully reliable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, the level of electricity grid interconnectedness between neighboring countries varies depending on the level of regional cooperation enabled by institutions. As suggested by previous research, in transboundary river basins, this variation affects the environment and the management of transboundary waters. In regions where all electricity utilities are connected and function at a synchronized frequency, and where integrated electricity market mechanisms function, the stress on the shared water resources tends to be less. Turkey shares river basins and power transmission lines in Europe both with the members of the European Union (EU) and with non-member states. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the literature on the geopolitics of renewable energy by comparing the level of Turkey's electricity trade integrity with its EU-member European neighbors and with its non-EU-member neighbors and discuss the potential impacts of the transboundary electricity trade on the environment and the shared water resources. The main argument in this paper is that the higher level of electricity trade between Turkey and its EU-member neighbors is facilitated and boosted by Turkey's membership to the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E). The higher level of electricity interconnection leads to a higher level of cooperation in water and environment issues in the shared river basins between Turkey and Europe through the facilitating role of established institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change defines lifetime for CO2 as the time required for the atmosphere to adjust to a future equilibrium state, and it gives a wide range of 5-200 years; however, a number of published data show a short lifetime of 5-15 years. This implies that anthropogenic emissions of CO2 are sequestrated more easily than expected, suggesting it would be beneficial to look at other climate factors when making long-term predictions. Considering the magnitude and the time length (cycle), climate change can be interpreted as the result of the complex coupling of astronomic forces (e.g. the Earth's orbit and cosmic-ray flux) as well as terrestrial forces. Regarding the Earth's climate as a complex (nonlinear) system, it is necessary for the climate research community and policy makers to distinguish between variations caused by anthropogenic and natural occurrences, and the problem of how to do so arises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sensor measurement uncertainty has never been fully considered in prior appraisals of global average surface air temperature. The estimated average ±0.2 C station error has been incorrectly assessed as random, and the systematic error from uncontrolled variables has been invariably neglected. The systematic errors in measurements from three ideally sited and maintained temperature sensors are calculated herein. Combined with the ±0.2 C average station error, a representative lower-limit uncertainty of ±0.46 C was found for any global annual surface air temperature anomaly. This ±0.46 C reveals that the global surface air temperature anomaly trend from 1880 through 2000 is statistically indistinguishable from 0 C, and represents a lower limit of calibration uncertainty for climate models and for any prospective physically justifiable proxy reconstruction of paleo-temperature. The rate and magnitude of 20th century warming are thus unknowable, and suggestions of an unprecedented trend in 20th century global air temperature are unsustainable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under neoclassical assumptions, this paper develops a model to illustrate the effects of government use of carbon allowances for carbon emission control. We find that control using the instrument of issuing long-term carbon allowances does not produce the same good results in the Decentralised Equilibrium as in the Planning Problem. Thus, while Coase's Theorem ensures that the Pareto optimum is maintained in an economy with multiple agents, it does not align the social development with the economic optimum of the planner. We believe this is due to the that the price of carbon allowances is determined by asset profiles of investors rather than externalities. The steady-state under the special pathway shows that consumption is determined by the rate of technological progress, the total amount of carbon dioxide at steady-state, the level of technology at which steady-state is reached and the total amount of carbon allowances remaining. The comparison with the optimal tax path reveals that the price of carbon allowances has increased too quickly, leading to excessive consumption of fossil fuels in the early stages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global rise in energy consumption makes managing energy demands a priority. Here, the potential of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in controlling energy consumption is still debated. Within this context, the main objective of the current study is to measure the impact of ICT, its potential benefit, and environmental factors on household electricity demand in Taiwan. A panel of data from 20 cities in Taiwan was collected during the period 2004–2018. We adopted PMG estimation and applied the DH-causality test for analysis. The estimation results show that ICT, carbon emissions, and climate change will drive household electricity demand in Taiwan in the long term. However, ICT has a higher potential to reduce electricity demand in the short-term period. In addition, the results of the causality test reveal a two-way interrelationship between ICT and electricity demand. Our study also found that climate change indirectly affects the use of electricity through household appliances. We also presented several policy implications at the end of this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we examine whether geopolitical risk influences environmental degradation, while controlling for non-renewable energy consumption, economic growth and trade openness, using a quarterly dataset from 1985Q1 to 2019Q4. The choice of India as a case study is based on a number of reasons. India is a developing country, which produces approximately 3.2% of global GDP. Also, India produces almost 17.7% of the world population. The country also emits about 6.8% of global carbon emissions, and according to the 2020 report of the consulting firm Eurasia, India is ranked fifth in terms of geopolitical risk. This study adds to the existing literature by using the quantile-on-quantile (QQR) regression to examine the effect of geopolitical risk on environmental degradation, as well as highlighting the implications of geopolitical risk on environmental sustainability. Based on empirical estimation, we find that geopolitical risk increases and decreases carbon emissions in India. That is, geopolitical risk increases environmental degradation at middle quantiles and decreases environmental degradation at lower and higher quantiles. In addition, we find that non-renewable energy consumption, economic growth and trade openness impede environmental quality in India. Thus, we are of the opinion that policymakers, when making policy decisions on environmental quality, should factor in geopolitical risk in two areas, mitigation and channel of escalation, among other policy suggestions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is one of the most dangerous threats to human beings, and therefore, it is of great importance for the researchers to inform the policy makers of the threats of climate change and global warming. One of the main causes of climate change is the greenhouse gas emissions, particularly CO2 emissions. In this paper, we try to find a nexus between energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and economic growth in the United States, China, and India, known as three most polluting countries in the world. For this purpose, we applied the wavelet correlation and the partial wavelet coherence approaches during the period 1971–2013. The empirical results for the United States show that the GDP is positively correlated with the CO2 emissions and energy consumption in all frequencies. For China, there is a significant positive relationship between the GDP and CO2 emissions/energy consumption for the short-term horizon. However, for India, although there is a significant positive relationship between the GDP and CO2 emissions, the nexus between the GDP and the energy consumption is not clear. Furthermore, the pollution haven hypothesis was confirmed by the obtained empirical results. Based on our study, we suggest the policy makers in these three countries making supportive decisions for the producers to use modern environment-friendly technologies and renewable energies in their products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to the Fifth Assessment Report of the International Panel on Climate Change, cities account for the 67% of the global energy demand and are the major contributors in emitting CO2 in the atmosphere. To face this problem, National and European policies pushes towards the insertion of distributed energy systems within urban areas as a valid alternative to the traditional centralized energy supply. In this direction, the installation of distributed energy systems gives raise to consumers with production capabilities, by now called 'prosumers'. They use the autonomously produced energy to satisfy their own energy requirements and distribute the eventual exceed to neighbours. Yet, the energy exchanges occurring among prosumers permit the modelling of a network where nodes are identified as the prosumers and the energy interactions as links. This paper deals with this issue and proposes a cost-based methodology to model the energy distribution network of prosumers within the urban territories by deepening their impact on the traditional supply. Results are discussed by comparing a theoretical energy distribution network to a real case study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing diversity of renewable energy sources in developing countries is receiving attention in discussions about the future of energy security and climate change. Given the strong relationship between energy demand and economic growth, this paper explores the factors that influence the diversification of non-hydro renewable energy sources across 117 developing countries covering more than 30 years. We contribute to the literature by using a new measure capturing diversification of non-hydro renewable energy sources and explore several estimation techniques in investigating determinants of diversification. Controlling for regional variations, results show that higher per capita income, implementation of policies promoting renewable energy, technological innovations and human capital improvement encourage diversification. In addition, the squared term of income was included to capture nonlinear effects. The results depict a U-shaped kind of relationship suggesting non-monotonic changes in renewable energy diversification in relation to increasing affluence. This implies that greater environmental concern in terms of energy use can be expected as countries developed. Other determinants suggest that high dependence on imported fuels and increasing world market price for crude oil will motivate developing countries to diversify non-hydro renewable energy sources. In contrast, the local abundance of hydropower and the availability of natural resources like oil impede diversification. Finally, we conclude that the progressive integration of renewable energy in developing countries energy mix can be hastened with environmental awareness, relevant policy, and favorable economic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy demand associated with energy consumption (commonly fossil fuels) has increased in line with the rise in world population and this has led to a number of complications. The best known and most prominent issue induced by fossil fuel utilization is unavoidable greenhouse gas emissions released as a result of the combustion of fuels. Emitted greenhouse gases from various sources, such as industrial plants, power plants, transportation services, residential utilization and so on, are largely responsible for global warming and climate change. According to latest reports, the share of the transportation sector in total energy-related CO2 emissions is approximately 23%. As a result of a detailed investigation and dissemination of transportation-induced emissions, air transportation is found to be responsible for approximately 3–4% of total energy-related CO2 emissions. The current study introduces a different perspective in the evaluation of aircraft greenhouse gas emissions. In this manner, a thermodynamic evaluation on the basis of the first and second laws of thermodynamics and a cost evaluation of greenhouse gases emitted from domestic flights in the UK are presented in the current paper, in addition to an environmental impact assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wei-Chyung Wang has been a respected researcher in global warming studies for decades. I have formally alleged that he committed fraud in some of his research, including research cited by the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC (2007) on ‘urban heat islands’ (a critical issue). Herein, the allegation is reviewed, and some of its implications are explicated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is concerned with the conclusion of the Stern Review that the cost of climate change could be as much as 20% of the global GDP. In this paper, I identify two major sources of variation in the estimates of the aggregate cost of climate change. One is the disagreement among the AOGCM models on the magnitude of climate change, and the other is the divergence among the economic models on how harmful these changes will be to the economy. The main conclusion of this paper is that only under the alarmist approach—which assumes both the most severe climate change and the most extreme estimate of climate change damage to the economy—we can be convinced that the cost of climate change is close to 20% of the global GDP in 2100. In most other cases, the cost will be under 1% of the global GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several letters are presented including one from Castles to Doctor Robert Watson on the projection of gross domestic product (GDP) that will be posted in the World Bank's website, one from Ian Castles to Doctor Indur M. Goklany on the Economics of Climate Change memorandum, and one from Allan MacRae urging the journal of the Association of Professional Engineers, Geologists and Geophysicists ("PEGG") to bring its readers up-to-date with relevant developments.

This paper focuses on energy-related attitudes and behaviors of Turkish women, who are the main users of electrical home appliances responsible for most household energy consumption. Answers from 1323 female respondents surveyed through a unique questionnaire formed the dataset. The results from analysis of variance show that education has a significant effect on the relationship between energy saving and awareness and attitudes about climate change. Significant differences also exist between education level groups in terms of knowledge of the classification of energy-saving electrical home appliances. Responses to questions related to energy-saving purchasing behaviors are consistently higher for knowledgeable respondents. The paper then uses factor analysis and ordinal logit models to reveal interactions between energy-saving behavior regarding electrical home appliances and several factors, namely awareness, sensitivity, essentials, and receptiveness. The identification of these factors can provide useful insights for policy makers that enable them to construct energy-saving policies specifically tailored toward women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is an obstacle in the path of sustainable economic development. One of the key findings in the economics literature is that the use of natural resources contributes to real income per capita. However, its environmental consequences should not be ignored. This paper examines the nexus among CO2 emission, real income, and natural resources, by incorporating urbanization, and trade in Pakistan from 1971 to 2017. The Auto-Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) and Vector Error Correction (VECM) models are used for analyzing time-series data. The empirical findings infer that the use of natural resources accelerates the rate of CO2 emission in Pakistan which worsens environmental quality. In addition, the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) is confirmed in the presence of natural resource use. Besides, urbanization improves environmental quality through mitigating the level of CO2 emission. Moreover, the feedback hypothesis is found between the use of natural resources and CO2 emission. Additionally, bidirectional causality is found between urbanization and the use of natural resources. Overall, this study supports formulating new policies to overcome environmental degradation through energy-saving technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2000 a panel of the U.S. National Research Council in a report with the same title suggested, among other things, that a "substantial disparity remains" between the observed warming rates of the surface and troposphere. Also, in 2000, the climate models showed more warming of the tropical atmosphere than was observed. Many papers have been written since then. We discuss the most recent papers on this subject and using the latest data show that the differences remain unresolved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author reflects on global issues regarding energy and environment. The author says that the political unrest and fluctuating price of oil in North Africa and Middle East can affect world energy expectations, policies, and supply. The author states that the controversy on the role of energy regulation in the U.S. and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPC) will continue as well as the battle of for climate science and the future of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The article discusses various reports published within the issue including "The Sun's Role in Regulating Earth's Climate Dynamics," by Richard Mackey and "Sun-climate Linkage Now Confirmed," by Adriano Mazzarella.

Climate change caused by global warming, and the growing scarcity of nonrenewable energy sources, have driven Pakistan to shift from a traditional energy consumption pattern to a renewable-energy-use pattern. The per capita energy consumption in rural Pakistan is very low, especially in rural areas heavily relying on traditional energy sources. This paper presents the extent of biogas technology adoption by Pakistani rural households and the factors affecting their decision to adopt the technology in three selected districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. The data were collected by interviewing 480 respondents by using a pretested and designed questionnaire. The results show that the household adoption rate of biogas technologies is low. The factors affecting the adoption decision of households included household income, access to credit, cultivated land area, the number of cattle in the household, education, and family size. The study also found fundamental barriers to the household adoption of biogas technologies, such as a lack of proper technical services by implementing organizations and insufficient governmental support. The authors make recommendations based on the findings to increase the adoption rate of biogas technologies in rural Pakistan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Indian government needs to increase the access to electricity of a growing population and economy taking into account major environmental and health related challenges, rapidly changing technologies, social and cultural preferences and international commitments. Such an increased access calls for substantial investment, and hence India has been gradually liberalising the electricity sector since 1991. This paper addresses the question: What are the opportunities for accessing the foreign funding available to India and how can it use this funding to modernise its electricity sector in a sustainable manner? Based on a two year research programme, this paper examines the international institutional context and draws conclusions regarding the different mechanisms for India and the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats facing India. It argues that since foreign funding is flowing into the country with enhanced liberalisation, the climate change mechanisms should be used to steer electricity generation in a sustainable direction, and aid funds should be used to focus on access for the rural poor to energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of global climate change, improving agricultural carbon productivity is an important channel to cope with climate change, reduce agricultural carbon emissions and maintain agricultural growth. For a long time, agricultural development in China mainly depends on the government's fiscal expenditure. However, does fiscal support helps to promote carbon productivity of agriculture? This question remains to be answered. Using a set of panel data covering 31 provinces and cities from 2003 to 2019, this study empirically explores the impact of agricultural fiscal support on agricultural carbon productivity in China. Benchmark regression results indicate that after controlling other influential factors, regional fiscal expenditure on agricultural has a significantly positive impact on agricultural carbon productivity. In addition, the promotion impacts of fiscal support on agricultural technological innovation and scale operation efficiency are two effective channels by which to help promote agricultural carbon productivity. By using a panel threshold regression model, we find that there exists a nonlinear relationship between fiscal support and agricultural carbon productivity. The input of agricultural machinery and chemical fertilizer are two threshold variables. Further, this causal linkage between fiscal support and agricultural carbon productivity exists differences because of the different levels of agricultural carbon productivity and regions. Our research provides Chinese theoretical basis and practical reference for improvement of agricultural carbon productivity from the perspective of fiscal expenditure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study uses the dynamic data envelopment analysis model to evaluate the intertemporal efficiency and the executive efficiency based on fossil fuel CO2 emissions in European Union countries. European Union countries in pursuit of economic growth, taking into account the growth of gross domestic product may result in increased CO2 emissions, countries in order to reduce CO2 emissions to meet the target of the UN climate change conference in Paris 2015, in pursuit of gross domestic product growth and CO2 emission reduction targets. Whether the reduction of CO2 emissions will affect the overall efficiency of the country's economic growth or not will make gross domestic product a major consideration in carryover variables in this study. This paper analyzes data of 28 selected European countries dating from 2009 to 2013 to study the effects of the undesirable output to the energy efficiency ranking. The variables in the model are the input variables: labor force, real capital stock, and energy consumption and the output variable is the undesirable output of fossil fuel CO2 emissions. In the model, the carryover intermediate activity is real gross domestic product. After the Paris Protocol formally replaced the Kyoto Protocol in 2015, the emphasis of this study is on the future state's pursuit of economic growth, the gross domestic product as a variable in terms of intertemporal efficiency and using CO2 as a variable of undesirable output to analyze the relationship between national economic development and the greenhouse gas emissions for getting a policy indicator of the environmental protection and economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To combat climate change and fulfill the national target of having 15% of primary energy from non-fossil fuels by 2020, China's central government is making every effort to promote PV generation, especially in the context of deteriorating export markets for China's PV industry, resulting from anti-dumping and anti-subsidy campaigns launched by United States and European Union. PV generation PV generation is set to boom in coming years in China.Although there is ambitious planning of building large scale ground-mounted PV plants in the Northwest of China, more than half of the installations are expected to be customer-sited small scale distributed systems. Because PV generation, particularly customer-sited PV systems represents a totally new pattern of power production and consumption. China's electricity system, which has been originally designed for centralized power delivery, is not fully prepared to accommodate large scale PV generation from the technical point of view. Besides, governmental policies and operational regulations are not able to match the need of these new comers.This paper works out a comprehensive solution for integration of large scale distributed PV, which consists of technical strategy, regulatory strategy and policy strategy. Firstly, electricity grids and PV systems should be directionally technically adapted to each other. oGrid friendly PV plants" requires that PV plants should be equipped with advanced technologies to improve the visibility, controllability and predictability, bringing the performance of PV plants increasingly close to that of conventional power plants. Secondly, with high penetration of distributed PV generation, grid dispatch centers should have necessary monitoring and control over these dispersed generating systems, which are supposed to follow the instructions issued by grid operators. Thirdly, incentive polies should be in accordance with national medium-and long term planning, with consideration of minimizing social cost. Policies should also be foreseeable and persistent for all the investors.Based on the framework of the comprehensive solution for PV generation, this paper elaborates major experience drawn from Germany with high PV penetration and illustrates how Germany has successfully integrated large scale distributed PV systems from the technical, regulatory and policy aspect respectively. Finally, it comes up with relevant recommendations for the development of PV generation in China: to speed up the process of establishing and improving the system of technical requirements, to draw up and release detailed operational rules on distributed PV generating systems and replace unified FIT for ground-mounted systems with differentiated FIT. Distributed customer-sited PV systems should be promoted by subsidizing the self-consumed electricity in the form of RMB cent per kWh. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper shows for a Korean case study how the naphtha storage fraction and CO2 emissions from naphtha use in the petrochemical industry can be estimated. We have used the Non-Energy use Emission Accounting Tables model to estimate CO2 emissions by subtracting the carbon stored in products from the total carbon input. We also value the country's naphtha storage fraction by calculating carbon storage in basic chemicals. The naphtha storage fraction and associated CO2 emissions from non-energy use depend on the production and trade structure of a country. Therefore, it is reasonable for Korea (with its large production and net exports of chemicals) to estimate a county-specific storage fraction. The naphtha storage fraction estimated using the Non-Energy use Emission Accounting Tables model was over 90% in Korea between 2011 and 2015. It is much higher than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change default fraction of 75%. A revision of the naphtha storage fraction from 75 to 90% is proposed for Korea. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change allows countries to apply their own values that more accurately represent their country's situation. The Korean government is advised to consider this finding in its national emission accounting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the factors that affect the investment environment of the renewable energy industry in emerging countries, and quantifies them to derive relative priorities, drawing on the Vietnamese solar market as a critical case. Vietnam's solar photovoltaic (PV) market was exposed to various adverse policy situations during 2017–2019. The priorities of the determinant factors were derived using analytic hierarchy process analysis, based on a survey of 20 energy experts. The priority of the factors in Level 1 include, in descending order, policies, legal framework, profitability, ease of access to finance, infrastructure, and external factors. The top five of the 29 important factors in Level 2 are level of policy implementation, policy consistency (predictability), feed-in-tariff price, incentives and subsidies for foreign (direct) investment in solar PV, fruitage remittance, and transmission/distribution lines. We demonstrate that the active establishment and implementation of policies is crucial for the development of the renewable energy market. The improvement of the grid infrastructure and measures for system integration should be supported in accordance with solar power deployment. Therefore, actively engaging the interests of various stakeholders comprehensively and in a balanced manner during policymaking can be decisive in supporting stable market growth, facilitated by partnerships between local developers and international investors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The availability of atmospheric carbon dioxide is the sine qua non for all plant growth and thence for all marine and terrestrial life forms. The purpose of this paper is to show that proposed reductions in anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) to below the level of observed annual incremental biospheric absorption of those emissions would reduce the growth of the basic feedstock of all life forms. Agronomists have for long known and demonstrated in controlled experiments both in greenhouses and in field studies the dramatic impact of increases in its level on crop yields. These studies have all been local. The regression analysis here of historic data on global food production shows it may well be more dependent on increases in the availability of atmospheric carbon dioxide (henceforth written as [CO2]) than on changes in fertilizer consumption and global mean temperature (GMT). This implies that if the drastic reductions in total anthropogenic emissions of CO2 to be sought at Copenhagen (December 2009) are adopted and applied, they will, even if they aim at only a 60% reduction on the 2000 global level by 2050, bring emissions to below the incremental volume of their biospheric absorption. That could seriously imperil growth of global food production. We show how in its role as a fertilizer that raises global Net Primary Productivity (NPP), increases in [CO2] have a natural negative feedback mechanism that offsets a large proportion of growing emissions: more [CO2] causes more plant growth, but more plant growth takes up more CO2 thus limiting the further rise. This contrasts with the unproven positive feedback assumed in all models deployed by the IPCC whereby, allegedly, rising [CO2] will result in falling biospheric absorption and ever larger increases in [CO2]. We show there is no sign in the observations since 1958 of "saturation" of the capacity of the planet to continue absorbing more than half of all anthropogenic emissions of CO2, so there is no evidence for the IPCC's positive feedback. Biospheric absorption of increases in anthropogenic CO2 emissions would only have to increase from the average 57% of all anthropogenic emissions from 1958 to 2008 to 60% to achieve the likely Copenhagen 60% emissions reduction target. The rapid growth of absorption of total anthropogenic emissions to over 6% p.a. between 1997 and 2006 relative to total emissions growth at 2.6% p.a. over that period (Le Quéré 2008) confirms this manner of attaining the Copenhagen target is easily attainable-and helps to explain the growth of food production at rates in excess of global population growth. It also limited the growth rate of aggregate [CO2] between 1958 and 2008 to only 0.41% p.a. Our results show that with warming in the absence of growing carbon fertilization, agricultural production could be less by more than 10% by 2080 than at present (2007:Table 5.8). That means starvation for most of a global population likely then to be at least 50% larger than now. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An examination of long-term historic temperature records shows that they conform closely to a Normal frequency distribution curve. The frequency of high temperatures has remained the same both before and after the advent of anthropogenic CO2 in the mid 19th century. The present high temperatures are therefore in all probability another warm temperature cycle which is confirmed by a fall in 2007 and 2008 annual temperatures. This paper also describes how frequency distribution can be employed for monitoring whether climate change is occurring or there is a continuing cycle of high and low temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rising popularity of emissions trading schemes and the private sector call for a global carbon market, it seems as though there is the chance to solve climate change by simply providing a clear price signal. But how easy will this be, both technically and practically? This paper provides an overview of the challenges in policy design terms involved in directly linking existing emissions trading schemes, and the status of planned emissions trading schemes, in order to set the potential of establishing a policy framework for a global carbon market in a realistic frame. The paper begins by outlining what linking is and setting out the advantages and risks of linking schemes. The key criteria to consider in order to establish compatibility for linking are explored, and then a summary of existing or planned schemes is given to highlight some of the technical challenges involved in linking emissions trading schemes together. The paper goes on to describe how a linked scheme could be set up and then moves on to the political arena, looking more closely at the political benefits and risks of linking and then discussing whether or not linking emissions trading schemes is an element of, or an alternative to, a global climate policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nicholas Stern's Review of "The Economics of Climate Change" (2007) triggered considerable discussion, essentially by condensing a complex problem - the question of how to act in the face of global warming - into juxtaposing two numbers, the cost of mitigation and the cost of climate change. The Review concludes that mitigation today is economically superior to adaptation tomorrow. The review was widely criticized for the assumption of a pure rate of time preference of almost zero, on which its conclusions seemed to depend. In this paper we argue first, that this assumption discriminates against current in favour of future generations. Second, we perform a sensitivity analysis to test for the extent to which the conclusions of the Review are indeed based on the assumption of a rate of time preference of almost zero. We demonstrate that the conclusions of the Review are no longer valid as soon as parameter values are used which are standard in economic analysis. Combined, these results raise a bigger question: how wise is it to base crucial policy choices on a model so dependent on a single, deeply subjective, judgement call? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change, some claim, is this century's most important environmental challenge. Mortality estimates for the year 2000 from the World Health Organization (WHO) indicate, however, that a dozen other risk factors contribute more to global mortality and global burden of disease. Moreover, the state-of-theart British-sponsored fast track assessments (FTAs) of the global impacts of climate change show that through 2085-2100, climate change would contribute less to human health and environmental threats than other risk factors. Climate change is, therefore, unlikely to be the 21st century's most important environmental problem. Combining the FTA results with WHO's mortality estimates indicates that halting climate change would reduce cumulative mortality from hunger, malaria, and coastal flooding, by 4-10 percent in 2085 while the Kyoto Protocol would lower it by 0.4-1 percent. FTA results also show that reducing climate change will increase populations-at-risk from water stress and, possibly, threats to biodiversity. But adaptive measures focused specifically on reducing vulnerability to climate sensitive threats would reduce cumulative mortality by 50-75 percent at a fraction of the Kyoto Protocol's cost without adding to risks from water stress or to biodiversity. Such "focused adaptation" would, moreover, reduce major hurdles to the developing world's sustainable economic development, lack of which is the major reason for its vulnerability to climate change (and any other form of adversity). Thus, focused adaptation can combat climate change and advance global well-being, particularly of the world's most vulnerable populations, more effectively than aggressive GHG reductions. Alternatively, these benefits and more - reductions in poverty, and infant and maternal mortality by 50-75%; increased access to safe water and sanitation; and universal literacy - can be obtained by broadly advancing sustainable economic development through policies, institutions and measures (such as those that would meet the UN Millennium Development Goals) at a cost approximating that of the Kyoto Protocol. However, in order to deal with climate change beyond the 2085- 2100 timeframe, the paper also recommends expanding research and development of mitigation options, reducing barriers to implementing such options, and active science and monitoring programs to provide early warning of any "dangerous" climate change impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Greater economic growth could lead to greater greenhouse gas emissions, while simultaneously enhancing various aspects of human well-being and the capacity to adapt to climate change. This begs the question as to whether and, if so, for how long would a richer-but-warmer world be better for well-being than poorer-butcooler worlds. To shed light on this issue, this paper draws upon results of the ‘Fast Track’ assessment (FTA) reported in a special issue of Global Environmental Change: Part A 14 (1): 1-99 (2004), which employed the IPCC's emissions scenarios to project future climate change and its global impacts on various determinants of human and environmental well-being. Results suggest that notwithstanding climate change, through much of this century, human well-being is likely to be highest in the richest-but-warmest (A1FI) world and lower in poorerbut-cooler worlds. With respect to environmental well-being, matters may be best under the A1FI world for some critical environmental indicators through 2085-2100, but not necessarily for others. An alternative analysis using the Stern Review's worst-case results for potential welfare losses due to climate change indicates that welfare, adjusted for market and non-market impacts of climate change and the risk of catastrophe, should be highest under the A1FI scenario, at least through 2100. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The pressure to prove that anthropogenic global warming is real, and happening now has become so strong, that in spite of major and irresolvable uncertainties in climate models, there is a daily renewal and re-inforcement of the idea of scientific certainty in the mainstream media. Whilst uncertainties are often acknowledged in the body of scientific reports, they are rarely seen in press releases and executive summaries. This paper examines how an almost mass acceptance of imminent and potentially catastrophic global warming by politicians, the media and the public, has come about and highlights the role of various UK agencies such as the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and the Met Office in producing this result. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shared challenges can bring out the best in people, but they can also do the opposite. Global climate change is an archetypal shared challenge for humanity, and although the threat has inspired a substantial amount of international co-operation, efforts to moderate it have already proven divisive. These divisions go beyond economically-driven haggling over who must reduce greenhouse gas emissions by what amount. Attempts to mitigate human civilisation's effects on the climate raise questions of political principle. Moreover, these questions have the specific potential to mobilise certain states and quasi-states against certain other ones, and this has implications for the field of security studies. Thus, climate change threatens to revive ideological dispute among armed, organised economically-developed societies. Although the idea of a world war over carbon remains far-fetched, the parallels with the international politics of the mid-20th century are disturbing. Policymakers would be wise to take the political questions of climate change more seriously than they appear to have done in the past. Scholars may note that disputes over global warming challenge influential models of contemporary global politics. This paper explores the reasons why controversies over climate policy are likely to prove particularly divisive in international politics. The first section discusses the relative ideological consensus that has prevailed among developed societies since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Even pessimistic theorists initially took this consensus for granted. As of 2005, however, this consensus is stretched thin on numerous issues. One of these issues is climate policy. A second section of this paper discusses the stakes in the climate debate, suggesting that this dispute is likely to be a particularly important one. The third section notes that attempts to limit global carbon dioxide emissions raise questions about citizens' relationships to each other and to the state. Historically, such questions have raised issues of principle. These issues have had moral and emotional implications that run far beyond the material issues involved. Many nations, notably the US, have resolved these issues by adopting the political system known as republicanism. A fourth section discusses the concept of a republic and the problems it presents for those who wish to develop an international policy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The fifth section notes that a broad, if informal, movement in early 21st century politics directly challenges republicanism. Debates over climate policy have already served to deepen this division. A conclusion sums up the paper's findings and reflects on their implications. Future work in the field of security studies will need to address the potential friction between republican and anti-republican political entities, and this paper highlights one of the forms this friction may take. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the extent to which climate change policies and instruments in Norway and the Netherlands have provided continuous incentives for the development, adoption and diffusion of new abatement technologies. More specifically, the paper examines whether differences between the types of instruments adopted (Dutch voluntary agreements and the Norwegian CO2 tax), problem type and domestic political context have affected technological change in the two countries' petroleum sectors. In brief, empirical evidence suggests that the two cases display quite similar outcomes in terms of technological change. That said, there are also important differences, pertaining most notably to the development and adoption of radical innovations in the Norwegian petroleum sector. The differences are in turn attributed to the interplay between the respective policy instruments adopted and the political contexts in which they are applied. These findings are important not only for policymakers involved in the selection of effective instruments in climate change policy, but also for the development of theories and analytical frameworks to examine and assess dynamic efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conventional wisdom on climate change policy is straightforward: Reducing greenhouse gas emissions will avoid the increased frequency and magnitude of climate impacts on environment and society that might occur if emissions are not controlled. The proponents of conventional wisdom widely consider energy policy to be the main policy tool available to decision makers to intentionally modulate future climate impacts. In this paper we challenge the notion that policy makers should intentionally use energy policy to modulate future climate impacts. The paper argues that policy makers may well make large changes in energy policy (and future emissions) without significantly affecting future climate impacts. In other words, even if a theoretical case could be made that energy policy could be used intentionally to modulate future climate, other factors will play a larger role in creating future impacts and are arguably more amenable to policy change. To illustrate this conclusion, the paper presents a sensitivity analysis under the assumptions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the case of tropical cyclones. One implication of the paper's conclusions is that policy responses to extreme weather events should be decoupled from considerations of energy policy. This decoupling is not intended to diminish either the importance of responding to climate change or of energy policy. Rather, it is to emphasise that there are many responses under the rubric of “adaptation” that could play a much role in reducing societal vulnerability to losses. One of the implications of this change is that scientific uncertainty need not stand in the way of effective “action” because the measures proposed make sense under any future climate scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]