1. The ability of Building Stock Energy Models (BSEMs) to facilitate the sector’s climate change target in the face of socioeconomic uncertainties: A review
- Author
-
Bashar Al Shawa
- Subjects
Price elasticity of demand ,Consumption (economics) ,Mechanical Engineering ,Climate change ,Building and Construction ,Energy consumption ,Rebound effect (conservation) ,Environmental economics ,Economics ,Population growth ,Electrical and Electronic Engineering ,Socioeconomic status ,Stock (geology) ,Civil and Structural Engineering - Abstract
Despite the introduction of numerous building energy codes, the sector’s energy consumption increased by an average of 1.8% per year from 1971 to 2010. Research implicates population growth and rise in income for this shortcoming, which result in an expansion of built-up area and enable higher spending on energy services. Other reasons include the rebound effect, where the anticipated energy savings from efficiency improvements are not achieved and, in some cases, consumption increases. This paper assesses the degree to which these socioeconomic factors were incorporated into BSEMs, and how this affects their validity and ability to devise effective building energy codes. The paper highlights the significant and unpredictable effect that these factors – e.g., rebound effect and elasticity of demand – have on buildings’ energy consumption. It was shown that the majority of BSEMs neglect these factors, raising questions on their validity and suitability to develop policies that can facilitate the achievement of the sector’s climate change target. The paper proposes a novel BSEM, where energy codes are reverse-engineered from climate change targets and consider the sector’s expansion. The proposed BSEM also devises socioeconomic policies that ‘neutralise’ socioeconomic factors to ensure that the codes’ intended energy savings are achieved.
- Published
- 2022