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This paper examines the effects of time-of-use (TOU) pricing on distributed renewable energy (DRE) investment for a non-power generating firm. We develop an electricity consumption cost-minimization model by considering the intermittent generation as well as the firm's electricity consumption. It has been found that implementing full retail prices compensation for the surplus renewable electricity is probably not good as it may lead to DRE over-investment. Moreover, we find that the firm's optimal investment strategy is not necessarily sensitive to the price signal of TOU pricing (i.e., the ratio of peak to off-peak price). Particularly, when the service-level difference in meeting a firm's electricity consumption between peak and off-peak periods by adopting DRE technology is above a critical threshold in relation to the peak time, a strong price signal will not promote the firm's optimal DRE capacity investment. This paper yields a policy insight that "getting the time right" may be more important than "getting the price right" in terms of enabling DRE investment for TOU pricing design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses data from the 2015 Residential Energy Consumption Survey to explore the extent to which renters' electricity use in the United States exceeds that of otherwise similar non-renters. Renting households are found to use approximately 9% more electricity than non-renters when controlling for location, socioeconomic, and many appliance-quantity controls. There are multiple factors that explain this extra electricity use, including inferior energy efficiency of appliances, behavioral factors, differences in bill payment responsibilities, and additional reliance by renters on electric space and water heaters. The paper finds that none of these factors are dominant. The phenomenon of renters' (conditionally) higher electricity use is thus best understood as one that emerges from multiple sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many economists and psychologists have studied the impact of nudges on households' pro-environmental behaviors. Interestingly, "private nudges" can be imagined for companies. Yet, studies focusing on nudging employees' energy use are rare. The objective of our paper is to explore this issue with the help of a field experiment conducted at 47 French companies' sites. Using a difference-in-difference methodology, the effects of three nudges on employees' energy conservation are tested. The first nudge, "moral appeal", stresses the responsible use of energy. The second one, "social comparison", informs employees on the energy consumption of other firms participating in the experiment. Finally, the third nudge, "stickers", alerts employees about good energy conservation practices. Our results stress the complementarity of these nudges. When implemented alone, the three nudges have no significant effects on energy consumption. However, when the moral appeal and social comparison nudges are combined with the stickers nudge, they become effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we analyze a uniform price day-ahead electricity spot market that is followed by redispatch in the case of network congestion. We assume that the transmission system operator is incentivized to minimize redispatch cost and compare cost-based redispatch (CBR ) to market-based redispatch (MBR) mechanisms. For networks with at least three nodes we show that in contrast to CBR, in the case of MBR incentives to minimize redispatch cost are in general not efficient in the context of our short-run analysis. This obtains both for pay-as-bid as well as locational marginal prices used for MBR compensation. As we demonstrate, moreover, in case of MBR the possibility of the transmission system operator to inefficiently reduce redispatch cost at the expense of decreased overall welfare can be driven both by the electricity supply side and the electricity demand side. Our results highlight a novel and important aspect regarding the design and the desirability of congestion management regimes in liberalized electricity markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How does temperature affect household energy demand in low-income countries? This paper uses 132,375,282 hourly electricity consumption observations from 5,975 households in South Africa to estimate the causal effects of short-term temperature changes on household electricity consumption. The estimates flexibly identify a constant log-linear temperature response--for every 1°C increase in temperature, electricity consumption decreases by 4.1% among temperatures below the heating threshold but increases by 8.1% among temperatures above the cooling threshold. This relationship is driven more strongly by seasonal than hourly temperature changes. Holding all else constant, a 3.25°C increase in temperatures would reduce electricity consumption by 1,093.4 kWh (6.2%) per year per household. Widespread use of electric heating due to limited residential gas heating infrastructure likely drives this. These results point to important regional heterogeneity in how temperature increases may affect household energy demand in the coming decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to explain the relationship between high frequency electricity demand, intra-day temperature variation and time. Using the Generalised Additive Model (GAM) framework we link high frequency (5-minute) aggregate electricity demand in Australia to the time of the day, time of the year and intra-day temperature. We document a strong relationship between high frequency electricity demand and intra-day temperature. We show a superior model fit when using Daylight Saving Time (DST), or clock time, instead of the standard (solar) time. We introduce the time weighted temperature model that captures instantaneous electricity demand sensitivity to temperature as a function of the human daily activity cycle, by assigning different temperature signal weighting based on the DST time. The results on DST and time weighted temperature modelling are novel in the literature and are important innovations in high frequency electricity demand forecasting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates household electricity demand using data from the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) 2015 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS). Previous research has focused on estimating price elasticities, and we contribute to this literature by examining how price elasticity is impacted by household income and the appliance stock. Results show that as income increases, households rely less on electricity for space and water heating, but the number of electronic appliances increases with income. The changing stock suggests that the mechanism through which energy reduction occurs differs across income levels. The results can aid policymakers concerned about electricity demand, rising electricity rates, and the impact on low-income households. The results can also inform the design of demand response and demand side management programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The energy rebound effect is a potential threat to energy-saving targets based on energy efficiency improvements. This paper employs a stochastic energy demand frontier model to analyze the energy demand and rebound effect in China's urban residential sector. Using a panel data set of 30 Chinese provincial-level regions over the period 2001-2014, for the first time, we investigate the degrees and determinants of China's urban residential energy demand and energy rebound effect. The results show that residents' income level, energy price, temperature deviation, population scale, household size, and district heating system are significant influencing factors of residential energy consumption. Regarding the energy rebound effect, we find that energy price is negatively correlated with the rebound effect, and an inverted U-shaped relationship between residents' income level and rebound-effect size exists. The magnitude of the rebound effect varies across regions, with an average of 65.4%. The main policy implication generated by this study is that it should be in urgent need of energy pricing reform to mitigate the rebound effect in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is one of the limited studies to investigate rebound effects in sectoral electricity consumption and the specific case of New Zealand. New Zealand, like other OECD economies, has aimed for energy efficiency improvements and reduced electricity consumption from 9.2 MWh per capita in 2010 to 8.6 MWh per capita in 2015. However, following a significant decline since 2010, electricity consumption in the main New Zealand sectors is increasing. Energy conservation could play an important role in meeting the growing demand for electricity but rebound effects can affect the effectiveness of conservation policies. We decompose the sectoral electricity prices to capture the asymmetric demand response to electricity price changes and estimate electricity demand elasticity during 1980 and 2015 to estimate the sectoral rebound effects. We find partial rebound effects of 54% and 23% in the industrial and commercial sectors respectively while we find no rebound effect at the aggregate level. The rebound effect is insignificant in the residential sector. These findings lead to policy recommendations for sector specific energy conservation measures and policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Capacity mechanisms are increasingly used in electricity market design around the world yet their role remains hotly debated. This paper introduces a new benchmark model of a capacity mechanism in a competitive electricity market with many different conventional generation technologies. We consider two policy instruments, a wholesale price cap and a capacity payment, and show which combinations of these instruments induce socially-optimal investment by the market. Our analysis yields a rationale for a capacity mechanism based on the internalization of a system-cost externality--even where the price cap is set at the value of lost load. In extensions, (i) we show how increasing variable renewables penetration can enhance the need for a capacity payment under a novel condition called "imperfect system substitutability", and (ii) we outline the socially-optimal design of a strategic reserve with a targeted capacity payment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a stochastic frontier analysis approach is applied to estimate energy demand functions in the transport sector. This approach allows us to obtain energy efficiency measures at country level that are a robust alternative to the energy intensity indicators commonly used for international comparisons. A transitive multilateral price index is constructed for aggregating the diverse energy components employed in the sector. Due to the likely unobserved heterogeneity among countries, the use of a random parameters model is proposed to accommodate these differences and to obtain different income and price elasticities per country. The estimated model is compared with alternative approaches of addressing this issue such as latent class, true fixed effects or true random effects models. This study is the first to use a random parameters stochastic frontier approach in the estimation of energy demand functions. The proposed procedure is applied to Latin America and the Caribbean, where the transport sector represents a large share of total energy consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on electricity consumption patterns. We highlight the importance of decomposing total electricity consumption into consumption by firms and by households to better understand the economic and social impacts of the crisis. While electricity demand by firms has fallen substantially, the demand by households has gone up. In particular, our focus is on Spain where, during the total lockdown, these effects reached –29% and +10% respectively, controlling for temperature and seasonality. While the electricity demand reductions during the second wave were milder, the demand by firms remained 5% below its normal levels. We also document a change in people’s daily routines in response to the stringency of the lockdown measures, as reflected in their hourly electricity consumption patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main purpose of this paper is to estimate lost consumer values due to various restrictions on household electricity use involving behavior adaptation. To do this, we conduct a choice experiment where households choose between hypothetical electricity contracts including various restrictions on the use of high-power household appliances. In addition, we use a contingent valuation question related to complete blackouts to study a restriction on other types of electricity usage (heating, lighting, TV, etc.). The results indicate a significant difference between the value lost due to the soft control, and the blackouts. Furthermore, policies aiming at stimulating behavioral changes are costly and it is far from obvious that demand response requiring behavioral adaptation is more cost effective than supply response (i.e., increased production of electricity). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Capacity mechanisms are increasingly used in electricity market design around the world yet their role remains hotly debated. This paper introduces a new benchmark model of a capacity mechanism in a competitive electricity market with many different conventional generation technologies. We consider two policy instruments, a wholesale price cap and a capacity payment, and show which combinations of these instruments induce socially-optimal investment by the market. Our analysis yields a rationale for a capacity mechanism based on the internalization of a system-cost externality--even where the price cap is set at the value of lost load. In extensions, (i) we show how increasing variable renewables penetration can enhance the need for a capacity payment under a novel condition called "imperfect system substitutability", and (ii) we outline the socially-optimal design of a strategic reserve with a targeted capacity payment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines how rising temperatures due to climate change will affect electricity consumption patterns through mid- and end-century. We extend recent literature in two important ways. First, we directly incorporate adaptation in the form of increased air conditioner penetration, resulting in heightened responsiveness to hot temperatures. Second, we go beyond average effects to consider how higher temperatures will change the intraday and seasonal shape of consumption. This is found to be of greater importance in colder countries, where the average effect is dampened by reductions in heating demand from warmer winters. Seasonal peaks are projected to shift from winter to summer and the diurnal range of hourly consumption expands, exacerbating an increasing need for flexibility coming from the supply side due to a growing share of renewable energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the 1990s, electricity distribution networks in many countries have been subject to incentive regulation. The sector regulators aim to identify the best performing utilities as frontier firms to determine the relative efficiency of firms. This paper develops a nested latent class (NLC) model approach where unobserved differences in firm performance are modelled using two 'zero inefficiency stochastic frontier' (ZISF) models nested in a 'latent class stochastic frontier' (LCSF) model. This captures the unobserved differences due to technology or environmental conditions. A Monte Carlo simulation suggests that the proposed model does not suffer from identification problems. We illustrate the proposed model with an application to Norwegian distribution network utilities for the period 2004-2011. We find that the efficiency scores in both LCSF and ZISF models are biased, and some firms in the ZISF model are wrongly labelled as inefficient. Conversely, inefficient firms may be wrongly labelled as being fully efficient by the ZISF model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the design, incentives and effectiveness of U.S. demand side management (DSM)programs and tries to explain why this ambitious, almost unanimously embraced initiative failed. Problems on the demand side result from consumers' private information that implies that substantial principal-agent slippage must accompany any conservation incentive the utility offers to the consumer. Moreover, the regulatory incentives induce the American utility to select inefficient programs. Therefore, the utility has little to gain from deterring such strategic reactions and cheating by consumers. As a consequence, the reported conservation exists largely on paper but not in reality. This ex-post assessment is important for two reasons. First, European countries (Scandinavia, Germany, Austria and others) have been eager to repeat this American regulatory 'success'. Second, the problems addressed in this paper would apply to another round of conservation programs induced by the concern about global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With more electricity generated from renewable sources, the importance of effective storage capacity is increasing due to its capability to mitigate the inherent variability of these sources, such as wind and solar power. However, the cost of dedicated storage is high and all customers eventually have to pay. Deferrable demand offers an alternative form of storage that is potentially less expensive because the capital cost is shared between providing an energy service and supporting the grid. This paper presents an empirical analysis to illustrate the beneficial effects of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) and thermal storage on the total system cost using data for a hot summer day in New York City. The analysis shows how customers can reduce total system costs and their bills by 1) shifting load from expensive peak periods to less expensive off-peak periods, 2) reducing the amount of installed conventional generating capacity needed to maintain System Adequacy, and 3) providing ramping services to mitigate the variability of generation from renewable sources. Moreover, this paper demonstrates economic benefits of different types of customers with different deferrable demand capabilities under two bill payment policies, flat price payment and optimum price payment, and it finally shows how long it takes for customers to fully pay back their initial capital costs of PHEV or thermal storage under two different policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to analyze and test demand behavior in the organized electricity market. According to a theoretical framework of heterogeneous agents' behavior, we estimate a complete multi-stage system weakly separable using individual demand bid data in the Italian Power Exchange. The novel contribution of this paper is twofold. Firstly, we model hourly demand of heterogeneous groups of agents acting in the Italian electricity market with a simultaneous system for all 24 hours. Secondly, we empirically measure the entire structure of expenditure elasticities and cross price elasticities for all 24 hours of the day, ascertaining whether hourly electricity demands can be considered normal or luxury goods and substitutes or complements in an organized electricity market. Econometric estimation shows that price elasticity tends to be higher when hourly price peak. Moreover, electricity exhibits both substitutability and complementarity characteristic in different hours of the day, the former during the day and the latter during the night. Electricity appears to be a normal good during nighttime and a luxury good during daytime. The demand structure has welfare improving policy implications, because appropriate regulation can favor consumer behavior adjustment to shave consumption away from peak prices, thus yielding lower aggregate equilibrium expenditures. To this end, we advocate reforming the actual administered two-price tariff structure to introduce real time pricing options for Italian final users. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A price reform in Turkey increased the residential electricity tariff by more than 50 percent in 2008. The reform, aimed at encouraging energy efficiency and private investment, sparked considerable policy debate about its potential impact on household welfare. This paper estimates a short-run residential electricity demand function to evaluate the distributional impact of the tariff increase. The analysis allows heterogeneity in households' price sensitivity and the model is estimated using a nationally representative sample of 8,572 Turkish households. The results suggest that rich households in Turkey are three times as responsive in adjusting consumption to price changes as poor households are. In addition, the welfare loss of the poorest income quintile--measured by the change in consumer surplus as a percentage of income--is 2.9 times that of the wealthiest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we employ a dataset of three dimensions--state, sector, and year--to estimate the short- and long-run price elasticities of state-level electricity demand in the United States. Our sample covers the period 2003-2015. We contribute to the literature by employing instrumental variable estimation approaches, using the between estimator, and pursuing panel specifications that enable us to control for multiple dimensions of fixed effects. We conclude that state-level electricity demand is very price inelastic in the short run, with a same-year elasticity of -0.1. The long-run elasticity is near -1, larger than often believed. Among the sectors, it is industry that has the largest long-run price elasticity of demand. This appears to in part be due to electricity-intensive industrial activities clustering in low-price states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applies panel unit root, panel cointegration, and panel causality techniques to re-examine the total energy and electricity demand functions of 25 selected OECD countries during the 1978-2004 period. The panel results indicate that total energy demand is income inelastic and price inelastic, whereas electricity demand is income elastic and price inelastic. Based on the results of the panel causality test, there are reciprocal causal relationships among real income, real energy price, and total energy consumption. Furthermore, a uni-directional causality runs from income and electricity price to electricity consumption. The results for the panel as a whole suggest that the demand for total energy and electricity in the OECD countries is driven largely by strong economic growth, while consumers are largely insensitive to price changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses a panel data of 72 U.S. electricity distribution companies during the period 1972-2009 to estimate structural demand and reduced-form price models. I find the own-price and income elasticity of demand for residential, commercial, and industrial customers that are generally consistent with the published economics literature. While static models work well for residential demand, dynamic models are more appropriate for the larger customer classes who require more time to adjust. Conditioning on the regressors, I find that residential and commercial electricity demand has been increasing slowly while industrial electricity demand and deflated electricity prices have been decreasing. In all price models I find that total factor productivity is consistently the most significant explanatory factor with a 1% increase in total factor productivity resulting in a reduction in deflated electricity prices ranging between 0.05% and 0.30%, depending on the model. Lastly, I find that retail electricity competition is associated with lower deflated electricity prices with the mean total impact being -4.3%, -8.2% and -11.1% for residential, commercial and industrial customers, respectively and with the impact diminishing over the sample period for residential customers, remaining relatively constant for commercial customers and increasing for industrial customers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modern economies and infrastructure sectors rely upon secure electricity supplies. Due to sectoral interdependencies, major interruptions cause cascading effects in the economy. This paper investigates the economic effects of major power supply disruptions taking such interdependencies into account. We apply a dynamic inoperability input--output model (DIIM) to 101 sectors, including households, of the Scottish economy in 2009 to explore the direct, indirect, and induced effects of supply interruptions. We estimate the societal cost of energy not supplied (SCENS) due to an interruption. The results show that the most economically affected industries, following an outage, are different from the most inoperable ones. The results also indicate that SCENS varies with the duration of a power cut, ranging from £4,300/MWh for a one-minute outage to £8,100/MWh for a three-hour (and higher) interruption. The results can be used to design policies for contingencies and preventive investments in the power sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We document substantial rigidity in household electricity demand in response to large price shocks. We partnered with an electricity retailer to run a field experiment in which randomly-selected households received discounts of up to 50% on their total electricity bill or up to 95% off their per unit cost of electricity for a full month. We show that the quantity of electricity consumed was unaffected by these discounts. Exploiting rich billing, smart meter, and survey data, we document responses that are much more inelastic than previously observed in scenarios that raise prices for a few hours or raise or lower prices for indefinitely-long periods of time. Our results hold even among subgroups that we ex-ante believed were most likely to respond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When the agent making an investment decision is different from the one bearing the costs of the decision, the outcome (energy usage, here) is socially sub-optimal, a scenario known in the energy efficient technology case as "split incentive" effect. Using a sample of households (from a survey conducted in 2011) from 11 OECD countries, this paper investigates the magnitude of the "split incentive" effect between home occupants who are owners and those who are renters. A wide variety of energy-related "technologies" are considered: appliances, energy efficient bulbs, insulation, heat thermostat, solar panels, ground source heat pumps and wind turbines. Mean difference in patterns of access to these technologies are consistent with the "split incentives" hypothesis. Regression results suggest that, even after controlling for the sizeable differences in observed characteristics, owners are substantially more likely to have access to energy efficient appliances and to better insulation as well as to heat thermostats. For relatively immobile investments such as wind turbines and ground source heat pumps, we find no differences between owners and renters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the combined effect of an Emissions Trading System (ETS) and renewable energy sources on investments in electricity capacity in energy-only markets. We study the long-term capacity expansion decision in fossil fuel and renewable technologies when electricity demand is uncertain. We model a relevant tradeoff: a higher share of renewable production can be priced at the higher marginal cost of fossil fuel production, yet the likelihood of achieving higher profits is reduced because more electricity demand is met by cheaper renewable production. We illustrate our theoretical results comparing the optimal solutions under a business-as-usual scenario and under an ETS scenario. This illustration shows under which limiting market settings a monopolist prefers to withhold investments in renewable energy sources, highlighting the potential distortionary effect introduced via an ETS. Our conclusions remain unaltered under varying key modelling assumptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many electricity markets use capacity mechanisms to support producers. Capacity payments can mitigate imperfections associated with "missing money" in the spot market and solve transitory capacity shortages caused by investment cycles, regulatory changes, or technology shifts. We discuss capacity mechanisms used in electricity markets around the world. We argue that correctly designed strategic reserves are likely to be more efficient than market-wide capacity mechanisms in jurisdictions that rely on substantial amounts of variable renewable energy and hydro power for electricity supply, such as Sweden. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we pursue two objectives: firstly we construct a theory based behavioral model of electricity demand in the Italian market; secondly we measure demand elasticity at hourly level, directly from consumer behavior. This is a novel approach providing the first attempt in the literature to estimate demand elasticity using individual demand bid data in the Italian Power Exchange (IPEX). Econometric estimation allows us to identify robust results, showing that elasticity varies significantly with: time of the day; day of the week; season of the year; pattern of line congestion; as well as according to the level of equilibrium price. This has meaningful policy implications: fostering more competition on the supply side could yield lower equilibrium prices and proportionately much higher quantities, for a lower offer curve shifted to the right would intersect a flatter portion of the demand curve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the impacts of state level residential building codes on per capita residential electricity consumption. We construct a timeline of when individual states first implemented residential building codes. Using panel data for 48 US states from 1970-2006, we exploit the temporal and spatial variation of building code implementation and issuance of building permits to identify the effect of the regulation on residential electricity consumption. Controlling for the effect of prices, income, and weather, we show that states that adopted building codes followed by a significant amount of new construction have experienced detectable decreases in per capita residential electricity consumption--ranging from 0.3-5% in the year 2006. Estimates are larger in states where codes are more stringent and more strictly enforced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Government, utility, and private subsidies for energy efficiency play a prominent role in current efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, yet the effectiveness of this policy approach is in dispute. One opportunity for empirical analysis is provided by the past energy efficiency subsidies, called demand-side management programs, offered by electric utilities in North America over several decades. Between 1990 and 2005, most electric utilities in Canada administered such programs, with total spending of $2.9 billion (CDN$2005). This paper uses the significant inter-annual variation in demand side management spending during this period to econometrically estimate the effectiveness of these subsidies. The resulting estimates indicate that these programs have not had a substantial impact on overall electricity consumption in Canada. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the effect of supplying feedback by text messages (SMS) and email about electricity consumption on the level of total household electricity consumption. An experiment was conducted in which 1,452 households were randomly allocated to three experimental groups and two control groups. Feedback was supplied throughout 2007 to members of the experiment groups who accepted the invitation, and data on consumption of electricity for 2006 and 2007 collected for all participants and control group members. 30% of the households invited to receive feedback accepted the invitation. Results suggest that email and SMS messaging that communicated timely information about a household's 'exceptional' consumption periods (e.g. highest week of electricity use in past quarter) produced average reductions in total annual electricity use of about 3%. The feedback technology is cheap to implement and therefore likely to be cost-effective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper measures the effects of information on residential demand for electricity, using data from a Japanese experiment. In the experiment, households had a continuous-display, electricity use monitoring device installed at their residence. The monitor was designed so that each consumer could easily look at graphs and tables associated, with the consumer's own usage of electricity at any time during the experiment. The panel data were used to estimate a random effects model of electricity and count data models of monitor usage. The results indicate that monitor usage contributed to energy conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Australian Electricity Market Operator generates one-day ahead electricity demand forecasts for the National Electricity Market in Australia and updates these forecasts over time until the time of dispatch. Despite the fact that these forecasts play a crucial role in the decision-making process of market participants, little attention has been paid to their evaluation and interpretation. Using half-hourly data from 2011 to 2015 for New South Wales and Queensland, it is shown that the official half-hourly demand forecasts do not satisfy the econometric properties required of rational forecasts. Instead there is a relationship between forecasts and forecast horizon similar to a term structure model of interest rates. To study the term structure of demand forecasts, a factor analysis that uses a small set of latent factors to explain the common variation among multiple observables is implemented. A three-factor model is identified with the factors admitting interpretation as the level, slope and curvature of the term structure of forecasts. The validity of the model is reinforced by assessing the economic value of demand forecasts. It is demonstrated that simple adjustments to long-horizon electricity demand forecasts based on the three estimated factors can enhance the informational content of the official forecasts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Suppliers and large buyers of electricity often sign load-following forward contracts (LFFCs). A LFFC obligates an electricity supplier to deliver at a pre-specified unit price a fraction of the buyer’s ultimate demand for electricity. We show that relative to more standard (“swap”) forward contracts, LFFCs can reduce the variation in the wholesale price of electricity. However, LFFCs also can increase the expected wholesale price and thereby reduce expected consumer surplus and total surplus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Financial Transmission Rights (FTRs) are financial derivatives in wholesale electricity markets that are sold in auctions. The revenue collected from FTR auctions is passed through to electricity customers to reimburse them for transmission congestion payments they make in the spot energy market. On average, electricity customers’ congestion payments greatly exceed auction reimbursements in electricity markets across the United States. We study the issue of auction revenue deficiency through the lens of Auction Revenue Rights (ARRs), which is the predominant mechanism used in U.S. electricity markets to distribute auction revenue to electricity customers. We demonstrate how the ARR process influences fundamental supply conditions in the FTR auction market and show how divergent auction equilibria emerge under different ARR decision-making regimes. Using market data from PJM, we find empirical evidence that variation in ARR management strategies helps explain differences between an FTR’s auction price and its realized ex post value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a novel methodology to integrate heterogeneous micro-founded preferences into a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. This integrated model is linked to a bottom-up technology-rich electricity model and a stock-flow vehicle accounting model to quantify the social costs of electric vehicles as an endogenous, demand-driven abatement technology. Emission abatement is achieved through consumer choices that are recognised as a central driver of endogenous technological change. Endogenously determined emissions from vehicle use, electricity generation, and production provide an input to quantify external costs attributable to air quality and carbon emissions. We find that carbon and vehicle registration tax policies induce a significant shift away from conventional vehicles towards electric vehicles in Austria by 2030. The shift to electric vehicles results in small overall economic costs, a substantial decline in fuel demand that exceeds the increase in electricity demand to charge vehicle batteries, and overall positive net environmental benefits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

State-induced components constitute the major share of electricity prices for consumers and are generally charged at a fixed rate. We analyze the benefits of charging state-induced price components at time-varying rates instead, especially with regard to the integration of variable renewable energy (VRE) sources and to decarbonization. For this purpose, we apply a detailed power market model that puts particular emphasis on electricity demand and how it is sensitive to prices. For a quantitative case study, the model is parametrized to represent a German energy system with an 85% share of renewables in its power generation. We find that dynamization has a reducing effect on integration costs of VRE, ranging from 0.3 to 3.4 €/MWh. Furthermore, strong distributional effects in favor of flexible consumers can be observed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, using hourly data from a representative sample of Swedish households on standard tariffs, we investigate the welfare and emission implications of moving to a mandatory dynamic pricing scheme. We allow demand during different hours of a day to affect utility differently, and account for the derived nature of electricity demand by explicitly accounting for the services (end-use demands) that drive hourly electricity demand. We use the flexible Exact Affine Stone Index (EASI) demand system, which accommodates both observed and unobserved heterogeneity in preferences, to understand changes in load consequent to hourly retail pricing. Our findings suggest that, following hourly retail pricing, changes in load patterns across hours are relatively small: total load changes by less than one percent. There are correspondingly small reductions in welfare and carbon emissions, of less than 0.2 percent and 0.47 percent, respectively. Overall, in the context of a decentralized, competitive retail electricity market-setting, our results suggest that the benefits to ensuring that the retail price of electricity reflects the hourly marginal cost is small, at least in the short run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine how per capita income and relative fossil fuel prices influence the use of non-renewables (oil, coal and natural gas), nuclear, hydroelectric, and other renewables in electricity generation. Panel regressions are estimated using the fully modified ordinary least squares method and data across 29 countries (1985-2017). We include both developed and developing economies whose classification status is allowed to vary during the sample period depending on per capita income. Results suggest that oil prices play a dominant role in boosting the use of renewables, while gas serves as a transition fuel. For developing nations, income is a significant constraint in the use of renewables, while coal and gas prices do not significantly influence the use of hydro and nuclear. This finding supports a shift away from the exclusive use of pricing mechanisms towards set targets linked to per capita income to encourage the use of renewables in developing economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, we study the profitability of energy storage operated in the Nordic, German, and UK electricity day-ahead markets during 2006-2016. During this time period, variable renewable energy sources (vRES) have been rapidly penetrating the markets and increasing the volatility of the residual load, which is often assumed to be associated with improving financial viability of energy storages. However, storage operator profits are not publicly available, in particular not at plant level. We therefore develop a linear optimisation model which maximises profits from arbitraging hourly prices and use the model output of profits and storage operating hours in further econometric analyses. This is a novel approach merging two strands of literature (optimisation and econometrics) in a single energy storage study. Specifically, we quantify and disentangle the effects of electricity demand, solar and wind generation, the spread between gas and coal prices, carbon emission prices and structural breaks on profits and operation of 1-13MWh/MW energy storages. Among others we find that solar generation is associated with lower profits but higher operating frequency of energy storages in Germany. Wind power generation is associated with positive effects on profits in the UK and Germany. vRES does not affect profits or operation of new Nordic energy storages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analysis the results of a time-of-use (TOU) electricity rates study which shows that omitting labor from the analysis of the demand for electricity under TOU pricing may cause a serious underestimation of the response of firms to TOU rates in Israel. Demand functions for electricity under TOU pricing; Assumption of weak separability between electricity and all other inputs.

We investigate the strategic behavior of wind producers in the presence of uncertain wind resource availability, where wind availability is correlated across firms. We study how the level of correlation between different firms' wind resources impacts strategy and market outcomes. The main insight of our analysis is that increasing heterogeneity in resource availability improves social welfare, as a function of its effects both on improving diversification and on reducing withholding by firms. We show that this insight is robust for common assumptions regarding electricity demand. The model is also used to analyze the effect of wind resource heterogeneity on firm profits and opportunities for collusion. Finally, we analyze the impacts of improving public information and weather forecasting; enhanced public forecasting increases welfare, but it is not always in the best interests of strategic producers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The literature on the energy-efficiency gap discusses the status-quo bias as a behavioral anomaly that potentially increases a household's energy consumption. We empirically investigate the extent to which the status-quo bias is linked to residential electricity consumption through two channels: non-replacement of old appliances and overuse of appliances. Using data from a large household survey conducted in three European countries, we find that our measure of status-quo bias is a significant predictor of both the age of home appliances and the level of a household's consumption of energy services. This is also reflected in the total electricity consumption, which is found to be around 6% higher when the household head is status-quo biased. We thus provide empirical evidence that the status- quo bias may represent a substantial barrier to increasing residential energy efficiency. Our findings prompt policy makers to design instruments that take this barrier into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical evidence on households' awareness of electricity prices and potentially divergent demand responses to price changes conditional on price knowledge is scant. Using panel data originating from Germany's Residential Energy Consumption Survey (GRECS), we fill this void by employing an instrumental-variable (IV) approach to cope with the endogeneity of the consumers' tariff choice. By additionally exploiting information on the households' knowledge about power prices, we combine the IV approach with an Endogenous Switching Regression Model to estimate price elasticities for two groups of households, finding that only those households that are informed about prices are sensitive to price changes, whereas the electricity demand of uninformed households is entirely price-inelastic. Based on these results, to curb the electricity consumption of the household sector and its environmental impact, we suggest implementing low-cost information measures on a large scale, such as improving the transparency of tariffs, thereby increasing the saliency of prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate partial and total own and cross price elasticities between electricity, gas and oil, using firm-level data. We find that, based on the partial elasticity measure, electricity is the least-responsive fuel to changes in its own price and in the price of other fuels. The total elasticity measure, which adjusts the partial elasticity for changes in aggregate energy demand induced by individual fuel price changes, reveals that the demand for electricity is much more price responsive than the partial elasticity suggests. Our results illustrate the importance of accounting for the feedback effect between interfactor and interfuel elasticities when considering the effectiveness of environmental taxation. We use the estimated elasticities to simulate the impact of a €15/tCO2 carbon tax on average energy-related CO2 emissions. The carbon tax results in a small reduction in CO2 emissions from oil and gas use, but this reduction is partially offset by an increase in emissions due to increased electricity consumption by some firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The original rationale for adopting daylight saving time (DST) was energy savings. Modern research studies, however, question the magnitude and even direction of the effect of DST on electricity consumption. Representing the first meta-analysis in this literature, we collect 162 estimates from 44 studies and find that the mean reported estimate indicates slight electricity savings: 0.34% during the days when DST applies. The literature is not affected by publication bias, but the results vary systematically depending on the exact data and methodology applied. Using Bayesian model averaging we identify the most important factors driving the heterogeneity of the reported effects: data frequency, estimation technique (simulation vs. regression), and, importantly, the latitude of the country considered. Electricity savings are larger for countries farther away from the equator, while subtropical regions consume more electricity because of DST. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]