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Buildings are the dominant driver of daily and seasonal electric load cycles, and account for 40 percent of U.S. final energy use. They account for roughly 10 percent of direct U.S. CO2 emissions and roughly 40 percent once indirect emissions from electricity generation are included. This paper explores possible evolution of this sector over the coming century, its potential role climate action and response to climate policies, and the potential benefits advances in building technologies for addressing climate change. The paper presents a set of scenarios based on a detailed, service-based model of the buildings sector that is embedded within a long-term, global, integrated assessment model, MiniCAM. Eight scenarios are created in total, combining sets of assumptions regarding U.S. building service demand growth, two assumptions regarding the improvements in building energy technologies, two assumptions regarding long-term U.S. climate action --- a no-climate-action assumption and an assumption of market-based policies to reduce U.S. emissions consistent with a 450 ppmv global target. Through these eight scenarios, the paper comments on the implications of continued growth in building service demands, the ability of efficiency measures to reduce emissions, the strong link between decarbonization of electricity generation and building sector emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Combined heat and power (CHP) systems can generate electricity locally while they recover heat to satisfy heating loads in buildings, which means they provide efficient energy. On-site generators may reduce both the expected energy costs and cost risk exposure for developers. With volatile energy prices, a deterministic modeling framework will not yield a fair value of CHP systems because flexibility in the operational response to price changes is not taken into account. In this paper, we present a Monte Carlo simulation model that is used to find the CHP value under uncertain future wholesale electricity and natural gas prices. When considering investing in a CHP system on should consider both return and risk. Clearly, both investment return and risk depend on local energy tariffs and energy loads, We highlight an example where CHP is marginally profitable and the investment decision is not straightforward. Interestingly, CHP systems were found particularly attractive with volatile electricity prices because their ability to respond to high prices provides efficient hedges to energy cost risk. Therefore, developers should not be discouraged but rather embrace onsite generation in markets with volatile prices. From the analysis, it can also be concluded that sizing of CHP systems can be related to the energy tariff structure and cost risk preferences as well as to energy loads. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assesses the impact of global warming on American energy expenditures for space heating and cooling in residential and commercial buildings. Estimation of the change in heating and cooling degree days; Mapping of the change in degree days into change in U.S. energy use for space conditioning; Estimation of the associated change in energy expenditures.