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We attempt to investigate how and when foreign direct investment (FDI) impacts different types of environmental pollution in host countries. Using provincial data from China between 1995 and 2015, we find that FDI mitigates air pollution, yet it has insignificant effect on water and solid pollution. We further reveal that it is the combination of the technology, scale and structure effects that jointly determines the impact of FDI on environmental pollution. Among them, the technology effect takes the most dominant role, followed by the scale effect and structure effect. In addition, by considering the time effect on environmental policy change, we suggest that the pollution halo effect mainly occurs after air pollution policy revision. Our findings provide insight on the complex mechanisms and theoretical boundary of FDI on different types of environmental pollutants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzes the relationship between the energy efficiency and the stringency of environmental and market regulation in the electricity sectors has been analyzed. Using 19 European Union countries (2006--2014), we decomposed the environmental policy stringency index, the OECD regulatory indicators and the total factor productivity growth to highlight the complexity of the relations between electricity sector and regulatory policies. In the first stage we compute the three main components of total factor productivity. These three efficiency measures are used in the second stage to assess the impact of the regulatory policies on the total factor productivity also controlling for spatial effect. Results suggest that market and environmental regulations have not unidirectional impacts on the three components of total factor productivity. Pure and scale efficiency index are negatively affected by sectorial regulation that positively affect the shift of technological frontier. Environmental policy negatively affects the shift of the efficient frontier, but has a positive effect on the scale efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The residential energy demand is growing steadily and the trend is expected to continue in the near future. At the same time, under the impulse of economic crises and environmental and energy policies, many households have experienced reductions in real income and higher energy prices. In the residential sector, the number of fuel-poor households is thus expected to rise. A better understanding of the determinants of residential energy demand, in particular of the role of income and the sensitivity of households to changes in energy prices, is crucial in the context of recurrent debates on energy efficiency and fuel poverty. We propose a panel threshold regression (PTR) model to empirically test the sensitivity of French households to energy price fluctuations-as measured by the elasticity of residential heating energy prices-and to analyze the overlap between their income and fuel poverty profiles. The PTR model allows to test for the non-linear effect of income on the reactions of households to fluctuations in energy prices. Thus, it can identify specific regimes differing by their level of estimated price elasticities. Each regime represents an elasticity-homogeneous group of households. The number of these regimes is determined based on an endogenously PTR-fixed income threshold. Thereafter, we analyze the composition of the regimes (i.e. groups) to locate the dominant proportion of fuel-poor households and analyse their monetary poverty characteristics. Results show that, depending on the income level, we can identify two groups of households that react differently to residential energy price fluctuations and that fuel-poor households belong mostly to the group of households with the highest elasticity. By extension, results also show that income poverty does not necessarily mean fuel poverty. In terms of public policy, we suggest focusing on income heterogeneity by considering different groups of households separately when defining energy efficiency measures. We also suggest paying particular attention to targeting fuel-poor households by examining the overlap between fuel and income poverty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyzes the relationship between the energy efficiency and the stringency of environmental and market regulation in the electricity sectors has been analyzed. Using 19 European Union countries (2006-2014), we decomposed the environmental policy stringency index, the OECD regulatory indicators and the total factor productivity growth to highlight the complexity of the relations between electricity sector and regulatory policies. In the first stage we compute the three main components of total factor productivity. These three efficiency measures are used in the second stage to assess the impact of the regulatory policies on the total factor productivity also controlling for spatial effect. Results suggest that market and environmental regulations have not unidirectional impacts on the three components of total factor productivity. Pure and scale efficiency index are negatively affected by sectorial regulation that positively affect the shift of technological frontier. Environmental policy negatively affects the shift of the efficient frontier, but has a positive effect on the scale efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Should energy use be lowered by using broad-based taxes or through promoting and mandating energy savings through command-and-control measures and targeted subsidies? We integrate a micro-simulation analysis, based on a representative sample of 9,734 households of the Swiss population, into a numerical general equilibrium model to examine the efficiency and equity implications of these alternative regulatory approaches. We find that at the economy-wide level taxing energy is five times more cost-effective than promoting energy savings. About 36% of households gain under tax-based regulation while virtually all households are worse off under a promotion-based policy. Tax-based regulation, however, yields a substantial dispersion in household-level impacts whereas heterogeneous household types are similarly affected under a promotion-based approach. Our analysis points to important trade-offs between efficiency and equity in environmental policy design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the hypothesis that changes to high-powered incentive regulations have a positive efficiency and productivity growth effects in a regulated electricity distribution industry. We estimate an input distance function using the stochastic frontier analysis method to compute technical efficiency scores for 121 Norwegian utilities over the period 2004-2012. We explore sources of productivity growth by parametrically decomposing the Malmquist productivity index into efficiency change, technical change, and scale change. Unlike previous studies, we examine the difference in performance across two regulatory regimes: yardstick competition (2007-2012) and RPI-X incentive regulation (2004-2006). Results show significant efficiency and productivity growth improvements with embodied technical change as the main driver. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent climate regulations include increased utilization of natural gas-fired combined cycle (NGCC) generators as a means for offsetting coal generation to reduce carbon emissions. There have been substantial increases in utilization for some generators, but most remain below baseload levels. This paper examines the factors that have driven NGCC utilization from 2003-2014. I run difference-in-difference models to evaluate the relationships between environmental policies and natural gas prices on NGCC utilization. Both low natural gas prices and the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) drive increases in utilization. However, the size of the impact by CAIR depends on the age of the plant. I use the estimates from this model for a counterfactual analysis which reveals CAIR had nearly twice the impact of low natural gas prices on increased utilization in nationwide averages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses a Bayesian approach to analyzing cost efficiency of Distribution System Operators when model specification and variable selection are difficult to determine. Bayesian model selection and inference pooling techniques are adopted in a stochastic frontier analysis to mitigate the problem of model uncertainty. Adequacy of a given specification is judged by its posterior probability, which makes the benchmarking process not only more transparent but also much more objective. The proposed methodology is applied to one of Polish Distribution System Operators. We find that variable selection plays an important role and models, which are the best at describing the data, are rather parsimonious. They rely on just a few variables determining the observed cost. However, these models also show relatively high average efficiency scores among analyzed objects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we study the relationship between market power in emission permit markets and endogenous technology adoption. We find that the initial distribution of permits, in particular, the amount of permits initially given to the dominant firm, is crucial in determining over- or under-investment in relation to the benchmark model without market power. Specifcally, if the dominant firm is initially endowed with more permits than the corresponding cost effective allocation, this results in under-investment by the dominant firm and over-investment by the competitive fringe, regardless of the specific amount of permits given to the latter firms. The results are reversed if the dominant firm is initially endowed with relatively few permits. Also, the presence of market power results in a divergence of both abatement and technology adoption levels with respect to the benchmark scenario of perfect competition, as long as technology adoption becomes more effective in reducing abatement costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we analyse the relationship between financial development and energy intensity in 28 Chinese provinces over the period 1999 to 2014. Using a wide variety of financial development measures, as well as specific indicators capturing the level of state intervention in the financial system and the degree of market-driven financing in the economy, we examine whether limited access to finance acts as a barrier to reducing energy intensity. Our estimations control for variables such as state investment, stock market capitalization and the composition effect. Further, a GMM estimator is used to control for endogeneity in our models. Our results provide evidence that a poorly functioning financial system constrains the reduction of energy intensity across regions. However, the strength of these effects has been gradually declining over time, especially following the implementation of the Green Credit Policy. Limitations in domestic access to fi- nance as well as the misallocation of funds and the efficient use of capital have policy implications, as they can reduce the incentives for investment in the energy sector. These findings are a source of considerable interest in light of the new policy based on green credit, and they highlight new opportunities as well as challenges to sustainable economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying the driving forces behind changes in aggregate CO2 emissions provides valuable information for supporting policy making in addressing climate change. We study this issue using the production-theoretical decomposition analysis (PDA) technique. Within a production theory framework, PDA examines CO2 emission changes from the perspective of productive efficiency. Although regional and sectoral heterogeneities in energy consumption and emission patterns prevail, they have not been taken into account in the PDA literature. By incorporating relevant decomposition methods, this study proposes an extended PDA approach to resolving the heterogeneity issue. The approach is applied to examine China's aggregate CO2 emission changes in its 11th five-year plan period (2005-2010). By accounting for the heterogeneities, detailed results at the regional and sectoral levels are generated and further discussions presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

European energy utilities face a range of policy induced challenges that are materially affecting their financial returns. Accordingly, in this paper we examine the impact of liberalization, energy efficiency, renewable energy, and security of supply legislation on European energy utilities' returns between 1996 and 2013. We implement an event study portfolio analysis using a comprehensive list of major regulatory changes, the largest utility sample to date, and a novel asset pricing model that controls for sector-level stock-market, term premium, and commodity risk factors. The results show EU policies that focus on liberalization and energy efficiency have a significant negative impact on the energy sector's financial returns. This reflects changes in the fundamental risk-reward trade-off of European energy utilities and investors' recognition of the economic impact of EU legislations on the sector. Contrary to assertions by the financial press, renewable energy objectives have no significant impact on returns at sector-level; the impact is mostly concentrated on the natural gas utilities. Our results highlight a tension between liberalization and environmental objectives, negatively impacting the sector's ability to raise the estimated $2.2 trillion investment capital needed to ensure reliable and increasingly environmentally-friendly energy supply. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Commonly-employed Feed-in Tariff (FiT) structures result in either investors or policymakers incurring all market price risk. This paper derives efficient pricing formulae for FiT designs that divide market price risk amongst investors and policymakers. With increasing deployment and renewable energy policy costs, a means to precisely apportion this risk becomes of greater importance. Option pricing theory is used to calculate efficient FiT prices and expected policy cost when investors are exposed to elements of market price risk. Expected remuneration and policy cost is equal for all FiTs while policymaker and investor exposure to uncertain market prices differs. Partial derivatives characterise sensitivity to unexpected deviations in market conditions. This sensitivity differs by FiT type. The magnitudes of these effects are quantified using numerical examples for a stylised Irish case study. Based on these relationships, we discuss the conditions under which each policy choice may be preferred. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In absence of joint global climate action, several jurisdictions unilaterally restrict their domestic demand for fossil fuels. Another policy option for fossil fuel producing countries, not much analysed, is to reduce own supply of fossil fuels. We explore analytically and numerically how domestic demand and supply side policies affect global emissions, contingent on market behaviour. Next, in the case of Norway, we find the cost-effective combination of the two types of policies. Our numerical results indicate that given a care for global emissions, and a desire for domestic action, about 2/3 of the emission reductions should come through supply side measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the environmental and policy impacts of switching from oil-fired to natural gas-fired generation in New York City (NYC). We create an hourly panel of the fuel use of NYC's generators and use a semi-parametric approach to identify the fuel-price spread that induces the switch from oil to gas. We find that NYC's pollution emissions decrease significantly after generators switch to natural gas. Around two-thirds of these emission reductions come from reduced emission intensity within plants, while the remaining third comes from less intense dispatch of oil fired generators. To illustrate the policy impact, we simulate the introduction of a real time pricing (RTP) program in NYC. The results suggest that the environmental benefits of the RTP decreased by nearly 30% due largely to fuel switching. While we focus on RTP, these results can be used to evaluate any energy policy that has a heterogeneous impact across time or the demand profile. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intention of this paper is to (i) introduce a multi-regional dynamic emissions trading model and (ii) examine the potential impact of an emissions trading scheme (ETS) on the long-term evolution of energy technologies from national and regional perspectives in China. The establishment of this model is a salutary attempt to Sinicize the global integrated assessment model that combines economy, energy, and environment systems. The simulation results indicate that: (1) for majority of regions, ETS is more effective in cutting CO2 emissions than a harmonized carbon tax (HCT), but this might not be true for the entire country, which means that these two options have little difference in overall carbon reduction; (2) carbon tax policy is a more cost-effective option in curbing CO2 with respect to ETS in the long run; (3) neither ETS nor pure carbon tax provide enough incentives for the breakthrough of carbon-free energy technologies, which illustrates that matching with some other support policies, such as subsidies and R&D investment, is essential to extend the niche market; and (4) In the context of ETS, the diffusion of non-fossil technologies in regions that act as sellers performs much better than this diffusion in the buyer regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy codes set efficiency standards for buildings in the majority of U.S. states. Under most energy codes, builders can comply by demonstrating that the projected private expenditures on energy bills for a proposed building are less than a certain threshold. Using theory and evidence, I show that energy codes would be improved if compliance was instead determined by the projected social damages. Relative to current practice, damage-based codes would likely provide stronger incentives for electricity than natural gas conservation, in most states. Implementation of damage-based codes would lead to substantial welfare gains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With federal policies to curb carbon emissions stagnating in the U.S., California is taking action alone. Sub-national policies can lead to high rates of emissions leakage to other regions as state-level economies are closely connected, including integration of electricity markets. Using a calibrated general equilibrium model, we estimate that California's cap-and-trade program without restrictions on imported electricity increases out-of-state emissions by 45% of the domestic reduction. When imported electricity is included in the cap and "resource shuffling" is banned, as set out in California's legislation, emissions reductions in electricity exporting states partially offset leakage elsewhere and overall leakage is 9%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact and efficacy of a cap-and-trade regulation on the electric power industry depend on interactions of demand elasticity, transmission network, market structure, and strategic behavior of generation firms. This paper develops an equilibrium model of an oligopoly electricity market in conjunction with a Cap-and-Trade emissions permits market to study such interactions. The concept of conjectural variations is proposed to account for imperfect competition in the permits market. We demonstrate the model using a WECC 225-bus system with a detailed representation of the California market. In particular, we examine the extent to which permit trading strategies affect the market outcome. We find that a firm with more efficient technologies can employ strategic withholding of permits, which allows for its increase in output share in the electricity market at the expense of other less efficient firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A clean energy standard (CES) is a potential policy alternative to reduce carbon emissions in the electric sector. We analyze this policy under a range of technological assumptions, expanding on the Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 24 study scenarios, using a new modeling tool, US-REGEN. We describe three innovative features of the model: treatment of spatial and temporal variability of renewable resources, cost-of-service electric sector pricing, and explicit representation of energy end-use specific capital. We find that varying technology assumptions results in vastly different futures, with large contrasts in the distribution and scale of inter-regional financial flows, and in the generation mix. We explore regional differences in how the costs of CES credits are passed through with cost-of-service vs. competitive pricing. Finally, we compare the CES to an economy-wide emissions cap. We find that although the two policies result in a similar generation mix, price and electricity end-use results differ. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regulatory measures have proven the favored approach to climate change mitigation in the U.S., while market-based policies have gained little traction. Using a model that resolves the U.S. economy by region, income category, and sectorspecific technology deployment opportunities, this paper studies the magnitude and distribution of economic impacts under regulatory versus market-based approaches. We quantify heterogeneity in the national response to regulatory policies, including a fuel economy standard and a clean or renewable electricity standard, and compare these to a cap-and-trade system targeting carbon dioxide or all greenhouse gases. We find that the regulatory policies substantially exceed the cost of a cap-and-trade system at the national level. We further show that the regulatory policies yield large cost disparities across regions and income groups, which are exaggerated by the difficulty of implementing revenue recycling provisions under regulatory policy designs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although economists prefer a unique, economy-wide carbon price, climate policies are likely to continue to combine technology- and sector-specific regulations with, at best, some degree of carbon pricing. A hybrid energy-economy model that combines technological details with partial macro-economic feedbacks offers a means of estimating the likely effects of this kind of policy mix, especially under different scenarios of technological innovation. We applied such a model, called CIMS-US, in a model comparison project directed by the Energy Modeling Forum at Stanford University (EMF 24) and present here the interrelated effects of policies focused separately on electricity and transportation. We find that technological innovation encouraged by transportation regulation can inadvertently increase emissions from electricity generation and ethanol production to the extent that abatement from the regulation itself is effectively neutralized. When, however, regulation of electricity generation is combined with transportation policy or there is economy-wide carbon pricing, substantial abatement occurs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Energy Modeling Forum 24 study included a set of policy scenarios designed to compare economy wide market-based and sectoral regulatory approaches of potential U.S. climate policy. Models from seven teams participated in this part of the study assessing economy-wide cap-and-trade climate policy and sectoral policies in the transportation and electric sector in terms of potential greenhouse gas emissions reductions, economic cost, and energy systems implications. This paper presents an overview of the results from the U.S. policy scenarios, and provides insights into the comparison of results from the participating models. In particular, various metrics were used to compare the model results including allowance price, the efficient frontier, consumption loss, GDP loss, and equivalent variation. We find that the choice of economic metric is an important factor in the comparison of model results. Among the insights, we note that the carbon price should cautiously be considered when other non-cap sectoral policies affecting emissions are assumed in tandem. We also find that a transportation sector policy is consistently shown to be inefficient compared to an economy-wide capand-trade policy with a comparable level of emissions reductions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study the impact of energy taxes and the EU ETS on a large number of firms in Europe between 1996 and 2007. Using company level micro-data, we examine how firms in different sectors were affected by environmental policies. Aspects of behavior and performance studied include total factor productivity, employment levels, investment behavior and profitability. On the whole, energy taxes increased total factor productivity and returns to capital but decreased employment, with a mixed effect on investment, for the sectors included in our analysis. However, large sectoral variation is observed, with some industries losing out in terms of productivity and profitability when faced with increased energy taxes, while others benefitted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Buildings are the dominant driver of daily and seasonal electric load cycles, and account for 40 percent of U.S. final energy use. They account for roughly 10 percent of direct U.S. CO2 emissions and roughly 40 percent once indirect emissions from electricity generation are included. This paper explores possible evolution of this sector over the coming century, its potential role climate action and response to climate policies, and the potential benefits advances in building technologies for addressing climate change. The paper presents a set of scenarios based on a detailed, service-based model of the buildings sector that is embedded within a long-term, global, integrated assessment model, MiniCAM. Eight scenarios are created in total, combining sets of assumptions regarding U.S. building service demand growth, two assumptions regarding the improvements in building energy technologies, two assumptions regarding long-term U.S. climate action --- a no-climate-action assumption and an assumption of market-based policies to reduce U.S. emissions consistent with a 450 ppmv global target. Through these eight scenarios, the paper comments on the implications of continued growth in building service demands, the ability of efficiency measures to reduce emissions, the strong link between decarbonization of electricity generation and building sector emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the coming decades, the cost of U.S. climate change policy likely will be comparable to the total cost of all existing environmental regulation--perhaps 1-2 percent of national income. In order to avoid higher costs, policy efforts should create incentives for firms and individuals to pursue the cheapest climate change mitigation options over time, among all sectors, across national borders, and in the face of significant uncertainty. Well-designed national greenhouse gas mitigation policies can serve as the foundation for global efforts and as an example for emerging and developing countries. We present six key policy design issues that will determine the costs, cost-effectiveness, and distributional impacts of domestic climate policy: program scope, cost containment, offsets, revenues and allowance allocation, competitiveness, and R&D policy. We synthesize the literature on these design features, review the implications for the ongoing policy debate, and identify outstanding research questions that can inform policy development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A number of recent studies on taxation in the presence of externalities in a second-best framework consider the implications of taking into account the feedback effects of environmental quality. This paper explores by means of GEM-E3. a computable general equilibrium model .for the EU countries, the importance of the ,feedback effects of the health related benefits from an environmental policy. The modelling framework implemented in GEM-E3 allows for three channels through which the feedback can occur: a decrease in medical expenditure, an increase in the consumers' available time and an increase of labour productivity in the production sectors. The results show that the explicit modelling of the health related effect of air pollution on consumers and producers allows for a more precise evaluation of the impact of environmental policies on private consumption and employment. Relative to the included benefits the feedback effects are large. However, in terms of global effect, the impacts of the feedback are small, compared to the standard GEM-E3 model where the health related benefits are evaluated ex-post. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The speed of vehicle ownership expansion in emerging market and developing countries has important implications for transport and environmental policies, as well as the global oil market. The literature remains divided on the issue of whether the vehicle ownership rates will ever catch up to the levels common in the advanced economies. This paper contributes to the debate by building a model that explicitly models the vehicle saturation level as a function of observable country characteristics: urbanization and population density. Our model is estimated on the basis of pooled time-series (1960-2002) and crosssection data for 45 countries that include 75 percent of the world's population. We project that the total vehicle stock will increase from about 800 million in 2002 to more than two billion units in 2030. By this time, 56% of the world's vehicles will be owned by non-OECD countries, compared with 24% in 2002. In particular, China's vehicle stock will increase nearly twenty-foM, to 390 million in 2030. This fast speed of vehicle ownership expansion implies rapid growth in oil demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Why do countries' greenhouse gas (GHG) intensities differ? How much of a country's GHG intensity is set by inflexible national circumstances, and how much may be altered by policy? These questions are common in climate change policy discourse and may influence emission reduction allocations. Despite the policy relevance of the discussion, little quantitative analysis has been done. In this paper we address these questions in the context of the G7 by applying a pair of simple quantitative methodologies: decomposition analysis and allocation of fossil fuel production emissions to end-users instead of producers. According to our analysis and available data, climate and geographic size--both inflexible national characteristics--can have a significant effect on a country's GHG intensity. A country's methods for producing electricity and net trade in fossil fuels are also significant, while industrial structure has little effect at the available level of data disaggregation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a contingent valuation survey, we elicit Swedish households' willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid power outages. In the study respondents are asked to state their WTP for avoiding nine different types of outages. We therefore apply a random parameter Tobit model since there is cross-sectional heterogeneity and a proportion of zero responses. Based on the estimations, we find that the WTP depends positively on the duration of the outages, and that WTP is significantly higher for unplanned outages. The overall variation in the WTP due to observed heterogeneity in housing and socio-economic variables is small compared to the pure effects of power outages. Policy implications of those findings are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Technology is a central issue for the global climate change problem, requiring analysis tools that can examine the impact of specific technologies within a long-term, global context. This paper describes the architecture of the ObjECTS-MiniCAM integrated assessment model, which implements a long-term, global model of energy, economy, agriculture, land-use, atmosphere, and climate change in a framework that allows the flexible incorporation of explicit technology detail. We describe the implementation of a "bottom-up" representation of the transportation sector as an illustration of this approach, in which the resulting hybrid model is fully integrated, internally consistent and theoretically compatible with the regional and global modeling framework. The analysis of the transportation sector presented here supports and clarifies the need for a comprehensive strategy promoting advanced vehicle technologies and an economy-wide carbon policy to cost-effectively reduce carbon emissions from the transportation sector in the long-term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The need for a better understanding of future energy scenarios, of their compatibility with the objective of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations, and of their links with climate policy, calls for the development of hybrid models. Hybrid because both the technological detail typical of Bottom Up (BU) models and the long run dynamics typical of Top Down (TD) models are crucially necessary. We present WITCH- World Induced Technical Change Hybrid model - a neoclassical optimal growth model (TD) with energy input detail (BU). The model endogenously accounts for technological progress, both through learning curves affecting prices of new vintages of capital and through R&D investments. In addition, the model captures the main economic interrelationships between world regions and is designed to analyze the optimal economic and environment policies in each world region as the outcome of a dynamic game. This paper provides a detailed description of the WITCH model, of its Baseline, and of the model calibration procedure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the importance of "what"-flexibility on top of "where"- and "when"-flexibility for alternative emission control schemes that prescribe long-term temperature targets and eventually impose additional constraints on the rate of temperature change. We find that "what"-flexibility substantially reduces the economic adjustment costs. When comparing policies that simply involve long-term temperature targets against more stringent strategies with constraints on the rate of temperature increase, it turns out that the latter involve much higher costs. The cost difference may be interpreted as additional insurance payments if climate damages should not only depend on absolute temperature change but also on the rate of temperature change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current climate policies are based on the use of Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) to compare emissions of various greenhouse gases. Yet, from an economic point of view, more efficient methods exist. We compare the potential costs of implementing some long-term goal for stabilization of the climate in three cases: Reduce CO2 emissions only, reduce emissions of the four greenhouse gases CO2, CH4, N2O and SF6 using the standard IPCC GWPs and reduce emissions of the same four gases with efficient and flexible, time dependent metrics. A multi-gas approach with GWPs reduces the costs by 8 percent when compared with CO2 reductions only, whereas the costs may be reduced by an additional 2 percent if using flexible metrics. If compared with the use of GWPs, we find that efficient weights increase the cost savings of including non-CO2 gases in climate policy by 15-40%, depending on the stabilization goal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

First steps toward a broad climate agreement, such as the Kyoto Protocol, have focused on less than global geographic coverage. We consider instead a policy that is less comprehensive in term of greenhouse gases (GHGs), including only the non-CO2 GHGs, but is geographically comprehensive. Abating non-CO2 GHGs may be seen as less of a threat to economic development and therefore it may be possible to involve developing countries in such a policy even though they have resisted limits on CO2 emissions. The policy we consider involves a GHG price of about $15 per ton carbon-equivalent (tce) levied only on the non-CO2 GHGs and held at that level through the century. We estimate that such a policy would reduce the global mean surface temperature in 2100 by about 0.55° C; if only methane is covered that alone would achieve a reduction of 0.3° to 0.4° C. We estimate the Kyoto Protocol in its current form would achieve a 0.25° C reduction in 2100 if Parties to it maintained it as is through the century. Furthermore, we estimate the costs of the non-CO2 policies to be a small fraction of the Kyoto policy. Whether as a next step to expand the Kyoto Protocol, or as a separate initiative running parallel to it, the world could well make substantial progress on limiting climate change by pursuing an agreement to abate the low cost non-CO2 GHGs. The results suggest that it would be useful to proceed on global abatement of non-CO2 GHGs so that lack of progress on negotiations to limit CO2 does not allow these abatement opportunities to slip away. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When conducting a multi-gas analysis, there are distinct advantages in moving from concentrations to radiative forcing. With the former, it is customary to use Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) for making tradeoffs among greenhouse gases. A number of studies have shown the arbitrariness of this approach and have argued that tradeoffs should be based on the contribution of each gas to achieving a particular target. Focusing on radiative forcing bypasses the need to rely on GWPs and provides for tradeoffs among gases based on their relative value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we examine the interaction between technology policy and its impact on the full basket of worldwide greenhouse emissions over the 21st century. The heart of the analysis is the Argonne National Laboratory's AMIGA Modeling System, a technology rich, general equilibrium model that (depending on data availability) characterizes as many as 200 sectors of the regional economies. We suggest in this paper that technologies and technology policies exist which could reduce carbon emissions enough to achieve stabilization targets at relatively modest costs given the size of the world economy. This can be accomplished largely through harnessing market forces and creating incentives with the use of efficient prices on greenhouse gas emissions, combined with complementary programs and policies to reduce market failures and to promote new technology improvements and investments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To address the problem of human induced climate change effectively, climate policy must embody the principles of economic efficiency, environmental effectiveness and equity. In this paper it is shown that such a climate change policy should include a broad coverage of major greenhouse gases and sources. ABARE's Global Trade and Environment Model (GTEM) is used to analyse the economic impact of meeting a radiative forcing target using policies that focus on carbon dioxide emissions only and policies that focus on all major greenhouse gases and sources, including land use change and forestry emissions. It is projected that incorporating non-carbon dioxide gases into climate change policy reduces the economic adjustment cost significantly. Broadening the sources of carbon dioxide to include land use change and forestry emissions further reduces the economic adjustment costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the role of climate forcing agents other than carbon dioxide using the MiniCAM integrated assessment model for both no-climate-policy and policy emissions scenarios. Non-CO2 greenhouse-gas forcing is dominated by methane and tropospheric ozone. Assumptions about the prevalence of methane recovery and local air pollution controls in the no-policy cases are a critical determinant of methane and ozone-precursor emissions. When these factors are considered, emissions are substantially reduced relative to earlier estimates. This reduces their potential as climate mitigation agents through specific climate policies. Nevertheless, the addition of non-CO2 greenhouse gas and ozone precursor abatement options significantly reduces mitigation costs in the first half of the 21st century (by up to 40%) compared to the case where only CO2 abatement options are pursued. While the influences of aerosols are small by the end of the century, there is a significant interaction in the early 21st century between policies to reduce CO2 emissions and SO2 emissions, even in the presence of SO2-related pollution control policies. The attendant reduced aerosol cooling can more than offset the reduction in warming that accrues from reduced CO2. When non-CO2 gases are included in the policy, the net effect is that global-mean climate change to 2050 is practically unaffected by mitigation policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I analyse the costs of policies aimed at stabilising global climate change. I show that abatement of all major greenhouse gases is important to the costs of climate policies and that flexible reduction of methane and other non-CO2 gases may reduce costs significantly. The non-CO2 gases offer many low-cost abatement options and this reduces the need for abatement of CO2 to stabilise climate change. Multi-gas flexibility may be important if climate policies reflect not only long-term stabilisation, but also the rate at which the climate changes, as the latter may require large reductions in emissions in the short-term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the potential role of carbon sequestration in forests under a range of exogenously chosen carbon price paths. The price paths were chosen to simulate several different climate change policies. The results indicate that global sequestration could range from 48-147 Pg C by 2105 for carbon prices ranging from $100 to more than $800 per t C by the end of the century. The timing of sequestration is found to be sensitive to the assumed carbon price path. Low initial carbon prices ($10 - $20 per t C in 2010) followed by rapid price increases, as might occur if policy makers try to stabilize future concentrations, suggest little, if any, sequestration during the next 20 years (-0.2 to 4.5 Pg C). If policy makers develop policies that support higher initial carbon prices, ranging from $75 to $100 per t C, 17 to 23 Pg C could be sequestered in forests over the next 20 years. Overall, our results indicate that forestry is not an efficient stopgap measure for long-term policy goals, but that it is instead an important long-term partner with other mitigation options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A CGE model of South Africa is used to find the potential for a double or triple dividend if the revenues raised from an energy-related environmental tax are recycled to households and industry through lowering existing taxes. Four environmental taxes and three revenue-recycling schemes are compared. The environmental taxes are (i) a tax on greenhouse gas emissions, (ii) a fuel tax, (iii) a tax on electricity use, and (iv) an energy tax. The four taxes are constructed such that they have a comparable effect on emissions. The revenue is recycled through either (i) a direct tax break on both labour and capitol, (ii) an indirect tax break to all households, or (iii) a reduction in the price of food. A triple dividend is found -- decreasing emissions, increasing GDP, and decreasing poverty -- when any one of the environmental taxes is recycled through a reduction in food prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimates of marginal abatement costs for reducing carbon emissions derived from major economic-energy models vary widely. Controlling for policy regimes we use meta-analysis to examine the importance of structural modeling choices in explaining differences in estimates. The analysis indicates that particular assumptions about perfectly foresighted consumers and Armington trade elasticities generate lower estimates of marginal abatement costs. Other choices are associated with higher cost estimates, including perfectly mobile capital, inclusion of a backstop technology, and greater disaggregation among regions and sectors. Some features, such as greater technological detail, seem less significant. Understanding the importance of key modeling assumptions, as well as the way the models are used to estimate abatement costs, can help guide the development of consistent modeling practices for policy evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to assess the likely allocation effects of the current climate protection strategy as it is laid out in the National Allocation Plans (NAPs) for the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). The multi-regional, multi-sectoral CGE-model DART is used to simulate the effects of the current policies in the year 2012 when the Kyoto targets need to be met. Different scenarios are simulated in order to highlight the effects of the grandfathering of permits to energy-intensive installations, the use of the project-based mechanisms (CDM and JI), and the restriction imposed by the supplementarity criterion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reimplementation of an EU-wide emissions trading system by means of National Allocation Plans is at the core of the European environmental policy agenda. EU Member States must allocate their national emission budgets under the EU Burden Sharing Agreement between energy-intensive sectors that are eligible for European emissions trading and the remaining segments of their economies that will be subject to complementary domestic emission regulation. We show that such hybrid emission regulation may lead to substantial excess costs compared to a comprehensive emissions trading system covering all segments of the economy. Furthermore, the hybrid system associated with the current design of National Allocation Plans is likely to discriminate against sectors that are not part of the emissions trading scheme. The interested reader can make use of a web-based interactive simulation model in order to specify and evaluate alternative settings of the EU emissions trading system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we explore whether efficiency gains obtained by developing countries participation in emission trading could offset the economic risks that would be incurred by taking on binding commitments when future emissions are uncertain. Such commitments would allow developing countries to participate in emissions trading, which has significantly lower transaction costs than the present Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). However, because future emissions cannot be known, commitments can become more costly for the developing countries than expected. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, we analyse whether the efficiency gains obtained by participating in emissions trading can offset this risk. We find that the efficiency gains that can be obtained by developing countries might not be very large compared to the risks they incur. Developing countries might therefore have good reasons not to embrace binding commitments in order to participate in "cap and trade" emissions trading. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Economic efficiency is a major argument for international emissions trading under the Kyoto Protocol. We show that permit trading can be welfare decreasing for countries, even though private trading parties benefit. The result is a case of "immiserizing" growth in the sense of Bhagwati where the negative terms of trade and tax interaction effects wipe out the gains from trading. Simulation and welfare decomposition results based on a CGE model of the global economy show that under EU-wide trading countries that are net permit sellers generally lose, due primarily to the existence of distortionary energy taxes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents a study which examined the effect of trade liberalization on carbon leakage. Quantitative estimates of carbon leakage under the Kyoto Protocol by means of import tariff reductions agreed to in the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations; Factors which may weaken the effectiveness of environmental regulations; Assessment of potential bias in previous estimates of carbon leakage.

Presents a study which examined market power in international carbon emissions trading. Outline of trading situations likely to be faced by countries engaging in intergovernmental carbon emission quota trade; Factors which affect the ability of large countries to exert market power; Discussion on cost-effectiveness in international climate treaties aiming at substantial reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.