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This paper focuses on seasonal demand swings in the European natural gas market. We quantify and compare the role of different flexibility options (domestic production, gas storage, and pipeline and LNG imports) to assess European demand fluctuations in monthly resolution. We contribute to the existing literature on seasonal flexibility by addressing the problem with a mathematical gas market optimization model. Our paper provides valuable empirical insights into the decline of gas production in northwestern Europe. Furthermore, we focus on how specific flexibility features differ between pipeline supplies and LNG supplies and between gas imports and storage dispatch. In terms of methodology, we construct a bottom-up market optimization model and publish the complete source code (which is uncommon for gas market models). Furthermore, we propose a new metric--the scaled coefficient of variation--to quantify the importance of supply sources for seasonal flexibility provision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The German offshore wind tender, launched in April 2017, resulted in three out of the four winning projects being delivered with zero subsidies, relying only on the wholesale price. This result has been regarded as a turning point for the industry. This paper analyses the 2017/18 German offshore wind tenders and the bidding strategies of the winning developers. We then propose a re-design of the tenders with the aim of achieving optimality/zero-subsidies and efficiency - two key properties in mechanism design. The paper contributes to the discussion on how to design offshore wind tenders with both a policy and theoretical perspective. This is of particular relevance given the rapid expansion of this type of investment in Europe and the use of auctions to select developers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the last years, European intraday power markets have gained importance for balancing forecast errors due to the rising volumes of intermittent renewable generation. However, compared to day-ahead markets, the drivers for the intraday price process are still sparsely researched. In this paper, we propose a modelling strategy for the location, shape and scale parameters of the return distribution in intraday markets, based on fundamental variables. We consider wind and solar forecasts and their intraday updates, outages, price information and a novel measure for the shape of the merit-order, derived from spot auction curves as explanatory variables. We validate our modelling by simulating price paths and compare the probabilistic forecasting performance of our model to benchmark models in a forecasting study for the German market. The approach yields significant improvements in the forecasting performance, especially in the tails of the distribution. At the same time, we are able to derive the contribution of the driving variables. We find that, apart from the first lag of the price changes, none of our fundamental variables have explanatory power for the expected value of the intraday returns. This implies weak-form market efficiency as renewable forecast changes and outage information seems to be priced in by the market. We find that the volatility is driven by the merit-order regime, the time to delivery and the closure of cross-border order books. The tail of the distribution is mainly influenced by past price differences and trading activity. Our approach is directly transferable to other continuous intraday markets in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the links between oil prices and inflation in the euro area by means of a DSGE model reflecting the structure of the energy markets in the euro area and calibrated to match the data using reduced-form time series techniques. The analysis focuses on the impact on inflation (through the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and its energy component) in the short and medium run. The main conclusion is that, in the short term, changes in oil prices are of vital importance for the understanding of inflation, but that at longer horizons their impact on inflation is much more complex and depends on the initial shock. An analysis of the sources of oil price increases remains therefore a pre-requisite for a proper understanding of historical fluctuations of oil prices and the related developments in the euro area, and for drawing policy conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to showcase different decarbonization pathways for Europe with varying Carbon dioxide (CO2) constraints until 2050. The Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD) framework, a linear mathematical optimization model, is used to compute low-carbon scenarios for 17 European countries or regions. The sectors power, lowand high-temperature heating, and passenger and freight transportation are included, with the model endogenously constructing capacities in each period. Emission constraints differ between different scenarios and are either optimized endogenously by the model, or distributed on a per-capita basis, GDP-dependent, or based on current emissions. The results show a rapid phase-in of renewable energies, if a carbon budget in line with established international climate targets is chosen. It can be shown that the achievement of the 2° target can be met with low additional costs compared to the business as usual case, while reducing total emissions by more than 30%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2018, an agreement between the key EU institutions--the Commission, the European Parliament, and the European Council--was reached after a long-lasting discourse over the 2030 EU climate and energy policy package. This paper offers a comprehensive assessment of the EU package, with its three main targets: lower greenhouse gas emissions, higher renewable share in final energy consumption, and improved energy efficiency. We find that the renewable and energy efficiency targets have been set so high that the derived emissions reduction (50 percent) exceeds the EU climate target (40 percent). Hence, there is no need for an EU climate policy, for example, to use carbon prices to reach the EU climate goals. It is, however, not cost-efficient to achieve the climate target by imposing the three EU targets. We demonstrate that a cost-efficient policy that obtains a 50 percent GHG emissions reduction would increase annual welfare (relative to the Reference scenario) by an amount corresponding to 0.6 percent of GDP in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the optimal capacity choices of conventional power generators after the introduction of renewable production. We start with a basic and generally accepted model of the liberalized wholesale electricity market in which firms have insufficient incentives to invest and we illustrate how the entry of renewable generation tends to aggravate that problem. We show that the incentives to invest in firm capacity (e.g. conventional thermal plants) may be restored by means of a capacity auction mechanism. That mechanism is vulnerable and, hence, may prove ineffective unless governments can credibly commit not to sponsor the entry of new capacity outside the auction mechanism. We explain that such commitment may be particularly difficult in the current political context where energy policy is conditioned by environmental and industrial-policy goals. We finally propose a way to enhance the credibility of capacity auctions by committing to optimally retire idle (conventional) power plants in response to entry outside the auction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides the first EU wide analysis of the variation in Capacity Remuneration Requirements throughout Europe which aim to resolve the "missing money" problems in various member states. The findings of this analysis point to an asymmetric investment case for gas-fired peaking power plants throughout the EU. Under the assumptions of the European Commission Reference Scenario, pan-European power optimisation and investment models are specified for 2030. The results show that future investment in gas generators will depend on the availability of capacity payments. Capacity remuneration mechanisms can provide this "missing money," but we show that capacity remuneration requirements vary considerably across countries. We consider and model the impacts of country specific climate policy targets, sovereign risk, capital allowances, corporate taxes and future gas network tariffs on investor returns and therefore remuneration requirements. In the context of harmonised energy trading, this raises questions of how generation adequacy should be achieved, particularly in the context of higher penetrations of renewables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electricity markets are increasingly influenced by variable renewable energy such as wind and solar power, characterized by a pronounced weather-induced variability and imperfect predictability. As a result, the evaluation of the capacity value of variable renewable energy, i.e., its contribution to security of supply, gains importance. This paper develops a new methodology to endogenously determine the capacity value in large-scale investment and dispatch models for electricity markets. The framework allows balancing effects to be accounted for that arise due to the spatial distribution of generation capacities and interconnectors. The practical applicability of the methodology is shown with an application for wind power in Europe. We find that wind power can substantially contribute to security of supply in a decarbonized European electricity system in 2050, with regional capacity values ranging from 1-40%. Analyses that do not account for the temporal and spatial heterogeneity of the contribution of wind power to security of supply therefore lead to inefficient levels of dispatchable back-up capacity. Applying a wind power capacity value of 5% results in an overestimation of firm capacity requirements in Europe by 66 GW in 2050. This translates to additional firm capacity provision costs of 3.8 bn EUR per year in 2050, which represents an increase of 7%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New generators located far from consumption centers require transmission infrastructure and increase network losses. The primary objective of this paper is to study signals that affect the location of generation investment. Such signals result from the electricity market itself and from additional regulatory instruments. We cluster them into five groups: locational electricity markets, deep grid connection charges, grid usage charges, capacity mechanisms, and renewable energy support schemes. We review the use of instruments in twelve major power systems and discuss relevant properties, including a quantitative estimate of their strength. We find that most systems use multiple instruments in parallel, and none of the identified instruments prevails. The signals vary between locations by up to 20 EUR per MWh. Such a difference is significant when compared to the levelized costs of combined cycle plants of 64-72 EUR per MWh in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cross-border trade remains a contentious issue in the restructuring of the European electricity market. This paper analyzes the cross-border trade problem through a set of models that represent different degrees of coordination both between the energy and the transmission markets and among national Transmission System Operators (TSOs). We first present a nodal price-like organization of the system, where Power Exchanges (PXs) and Transmission System Operators are integrated to operate the energy and transmission markets. This system is not implemented in Europe but its success elsewhere makes it the natural reference for the study. We then move to a more realistic representation of the European electricity market based on the so-called market coupling design where energy and transmission are operated separately by PXs and TSOs. We consider different degrees of coordination of the national TSOs' activities to assess the range of inefficiencies that the lack of integration can lead to. The paper supposes price taking agents and hence leaves aside the incentive to game the system induced by zonal systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the last decades the production of electrical energy has been liberalized. This paper studies the effect of using a market mechanism to allocate scarce transmission capacity when the incumbent producers remain dominant. We show that granting exclusive use to an incumbent producer is preferred to trading access to this essential facility if interregional production-cost differences are significant and transmission capacity is scarce. This result counters the intuition on third degree price-discrimination, that arbitrage will improve the social surplus when there is no output contraction. The reason is that with arbitrage the incumbent can still charge different regional prices as long as it creates congestion on the transmission lines. As a consequence, welfare will be lower, since the incumbent distorts production decisions to congest the lines. We recommend that a market-oriented access to scarce transmission capacity should be accompanied by additional regulatory or structural measures to address market power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increase in liquefied natural gas trade has accelerated the integration of previously segmented markets in North America, Europe, and Asia. This paper provides evidence on the integration of the transatlantic natural gas market; it thus complements other papers in the EMF 23 study that focus on prices and international natural gas trade. We test the theoretical proposition that in integrating markets commodity prices should move closer than before. Using 2,059 pairs of daily spot prices for natural gas in North America and Europe we investigate price dynamics covering the period from 1999 until 2008. We apply the Kalman Filter technique which measures convergence by allowing for dynamic structural change to gain detailed information on trends inherent in prices over time. Results suggest an increasing convergence of spot prices on either side of the Atlantic Basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents results of simulating a more collusive behavior of a group of natural gas producing and exporting countries, sometimes called GASPEC. We use the World Gas Model, a dynamic, strategic representation of world gas production, trade, and consumption between 2005 and 2030. In particular, we simulate a closer cooperation of the GASPEC countries when exporting pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas; we also run a more drastic scenario where GASPEC countries deliberately hold back production. The results show that compared to our Base Case, a gas cartel would reduce total supplied quantities and induce price increases in gas importing countries up to 22%. There is evidence that the natural gas markets in Europe and North America would be affected more than other parts of the world. Lastly, the vulnerability of gas importers worldwide is further illustrated by the results of a sensitivity case in which price levels are up to 87% higher in Europe and North America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The energy marker liberalisation process in Europe is increasingly focused on electricity market integration and related cross border issues. This signals that the liberalisation of national electricity markets is now closer to the long-term objective of a single European energy market. The interface between the national electricity markets requires physical interconnections and technical arrangements. However, further progress towards this objective also raises important issues regarding the framework within which the integrated market is implemented. This paper reviews the progress towards a single European electricity market. We then discuss the emerging issues of market concentration, investments, and security of supply as well as some aspects of market design and regulation that are crucial for dynamic performance of a single European market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we analyse infrastructure needs of the European natural gas market in response to decarbonisation of the European energy system. To this end, we use numerical modelling and apply the Global Gas Model. We investigate three pathways of future natural gas consumption: i) a decreasing natural gas consumption, following the scenarios of the EU Energy Roadmap 2050; ii) a moderate increase of natural gas consumption, along the lines of the IEA's New Policies Scenario; and iii) a temporary increase of natural gas use as a "bridge" technology, followed by a strong decrease after 2030. Our results show that current import infrastructure and intra-European transit capacity are sufficient to accommodate future import needs in all scenarios. This is despite a pronounced reduction of domestic production and a strong increase in import dependency. However, due to strong demand in Asia, Europe must increasingly rely on exports from Africa and the Caspian region, leading to new infrastructure capacity from these regions. When natural gas serves as a "bridge" technology, short-term utilisation rates of LNG import capacity temporarily increase instead of instigating large scale pipeline expansions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on a review of the current state of the Carbon Capture, Transport and Storage (CCTS) technology, this paper analyzes the layout and costs of a potential CO2 infrastructure in Europe at the horizon of 2050. We apply the mixedinteger model CCTS-Mod to compute a CCTS infrastructure network for Europe, examining the effects of different CO2 price paths with different regional foci. Scenarios assuming low CO2 certificate prices lead to hardly any CCTS development in Europe. The iron and steel sector starts deployment once the CO2 certificate prices exceed 50 €/tCO2. The cement sector starts investing at a threshold of 75 €/tCO2, followed by the electricity sector when prices exceed 100 €/tCO2. The degree of CCTS deployment is found to be more sensitive to variable costs of CO2 capture than to investment costs. Additional revenues generated from utilizing CO2 for enhanced oil recovery (CO2 -EOR) in the North Sea would lead to an earlier adoption of CCTS, independent of the CO2 certificate price; this case may become especially relevant for the UK, Norway and the Netherlands. However, scattered CCTS deployment increases unit cost of transport and storage infrastructure by 30% or more. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the development of the European electricity transmission network for different policy scenarios at the horizon 2050. We apply a bottomup techno-economic electricity sector model to determine transformation scenarios of the European electricity sector. It has a very detailed spatial disaggregation that allows for a fine representation of domestic and international electricity flows and transmission expansion. The cost-minimizing mixed-integer model calculates investments for time steps of ten years. The model results indicate that network requirements are lower than generally assumed. The largest share are domestic upgrades, rather than country interconnectors. Most investments (20bn EUR) occur in the near future, by 2030 the latest. Only the high-mitigation scenarios require large additional network investments. The timing and location of investments differ, depending on generation scenarios and cost assumptions for interconnectors. The results indicate that carbon emission reduction targets alone provide insufficient information for long-term network planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study effects of energy market uncertainty shocks on energy transition on the 28 European Union countries from 1990 to 2015 using annual frequency data. We assess the effects of oil price as well as the energy market supply, demand, and residual price shocks using a time-varying parameter panel data stochastic volatility model. We show the importance of reducing energy market uncertainty for the success of a clean energy transition in Europe as uncertainties have strong time-varying effects on the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. The oil price and residual energy price uncertainties are the key factors encouraging renewable energy transition that reduces the vulnerability of economies to energy shocks. Energy supply shocks affect the transition negatively while the demand shocks work similarly to residual energy prices shocks, requiring a robust energy base that is less volatile. The paper also discusses policy recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores how market and regulatory factors affect stakeholders' investments in smart grid projects in Europe. Distribution System Operators (DSOs), universities, and technology manufacturers are leading investors, with a cumulative 2286 M€ financed since 2002. Statistical tests were conducted on these groups' investments in smart grid projects in the EU-28, Norway, and Switzerland from 2008-2015, to evaluate the influence of the following factors on investment: the level of distribution sector concentration, the regulatory mechanism in place, and the existence of innovation stimulus mechanisms. The level of distribution sector concentration did not significantly influence investments by these three groups. Market-minded stakeholders, such as DSOs and technology manufacturers, invested more in countries that employed hybrid, incentive, or innovation-stimulus mechanisms; meanwhile, collaborative knowledge-seeking institutions, such as universities, were not swayed by these factors. Taking these findings into consideration will help policy makers design adequate incentives for stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper investigates the effects of oil price shocks on stock market volatility in Europe by focusing on three measures of volatility, i.e. the conditional, the realized and the implied volatility. The findings suggest that supply-side shocks and oil specific demand shocks do not affect volatility, whereas, oil price changes due to aggregate demand shocks lead to a reduction in stock market volatility. More specifically, the aggregate demand oil price shocks have a significant explanatory power on both current- and forward-looking volatilities. The results are qualitatively similar for the aggregate stock market volatility and the industrial sectors' volatilities. Finally, a robustness exercise using short- and long-run volatility models supports the findings [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the current state of market integration among European electricity day-ahead spot prices. In our empirical analysis we utilize a large sample of hourly spot prices of 25 European markets for the period 2010Jan01/01h- 2015Jun30/24h and combine it with other relevant data such as hourly interconnector capacities and the existence of market coupling. Firstly, empirical results from cointegration analysis indicate that market integration increased from 2010 to 2012 but then declined until 2015, despite the introduction of market coupling in many markets. Secondly, we empirically assess error correction after price shocks and reach the conclusion that markets' strength of the error correction mechanism is rather modest. In general, our findings suggest that the integration among European electricity markets has a large potential for improvements from additional capacity investments and further promotion of market coupling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because of the decrease in domestic production in Europe, additional natural gas volumes will be required. In addition to Nord Stream, the major import pipeline projects, Nabucco and South Stream, have been announced to provide further gas supplies to Europe. This raises the question concerning whether and how these projects contribute to the European Union's focus on security of supply. Applying the natural gas infrastructure model TIGER, this paper investigates the impact of these pipeline projects on southeastern Europe's gas supply. Gas flows and marginal cost prices are evaluated in general and considering the possibility of supply disruptions via Ukraine for the year 2020. The model results show a positive impact of these pipelines on security of supply despite few consumer cut-offs that result from intra-European bottlenecks. South Stream is only highly utilized in case of a Ukraine crisis, supporting the idea that its main purpose is to bypass Ukraine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study the impact of energy taxes and the EU ETS on a large number of firms in Europe between 1996 and 2007. Using company level micro-data, we examine how firms in different sectors were affected by environmental policies. Aspects of behavior and performance studied include total factor productivity, employment levels, investment behavior and profitability. On the whole, energy taxes increased total factor productivity and returns to capital but decreased employment, with a mixed effect on investment, for the sectors included in our analysis. However, large sectoral variation is observed, with some industries losing out in terms of productivity and profitability when faced with increased energy taxes, while others benefitted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the residential natural gas demand in 12 European countries using a dynamic demand model, which allows for country-specific short- and long-run elasticity estimates. The own-price and income elasticities tend to be very inelastic in the short run, albeit with much greater responsiveness in the longer run. Our results support very limited technological substitution possibilities between different energy carriers in the short run. Furthermore, the results suggested structural differences of residential natural gas demand across European countries and provide support for employing a heterogeneous estimator such as the shrinkage estimator. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A number of recent studies on taxation in the presence of externalities in a second-best framework consider the implications of taking into account the feedback effects of environmental quality. This paper explores by means of GEM-E3. a computable general equilibrium model .for the EU countries, the importance of the ,feedback effects of the health related benefits from an environmental policy. The modelling framework implemented in GEM-E3 allows for three channels through which the feedback can occur: a decrease in medical expenditure, an increase in the consumers' available time and an increase of labour productivity in the production sectors. The results show that the explicit modelling of the health related effect of air pollution on consumers and producers allows for a more precise evaluation of the impact of environmental policies on private consumption and employment. Relative to the included benefits the feedback effects are large. However, in terms of global effect, the impacts of the feedback are small, compared to the standard GEM-E3 model where the health related benefits are evaluated ex-post. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to test the hypothesis of the existence of a single economic market for the international coal industry, separated for coking and steam coal, and lo investigate market integration over time. This has been conducted by applying cointegration and error-correction models on quarterly price series data in Europe and Japan over the time period 1980-2000. Both the coking and the steam coal markets show evidence of global market integration, as demonstrated by the stable long-run cointegrating relationship between the respective price series in different world regions. This supports the hypothesis of a globally integrated market. However, when analyzing market integration over time it is not possible to confirm cointegration in the 1990s for steam coal. Thus, compared to the coking coal market, the steam coal market looks somewhat less global in scope. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper attempts to identify whether declining industrial pollution intensities in many European countries are a result of reductions in sectoral emissions intensities (i.e. the effects of regulations and technology) or changes to the product mix (e.g. the decline of heavy industries). This distinction is important since reductions in pollution that are a result of changes to the product mix may simply reflect a transfer of pollution from one country to another, rather than a net reduction. We attempt to resolve this issue by applying the divisia decomposition technique to a new dataset of industry-specific emissions intensities for three common air pollutants, for four European countries. Our results generally indicate the dominance of the sectoral intensity effect although, for the UK in particular evidence of an increasingly clean product mix is found. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper briefly surveys the history of natural gas use and describes the main features of current gas consumption. The share of gas in total energy consumption, and the sectoral distribution of its use in major consuming regions are discussed. The main changes in the pattern of gas consumption since 1980 are reviewed and explained. I analyze the likely implications of (a) the emergence of the combined cycle gas power generation; (b) the rising environmental premium of gas; and (c) the transformation of the West European gas market structure. The paper concludes that natural gas will substantially increase its share of global energy consumption in the next 15-20 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interdependence of electricity and natural gas is becoming a major energy policy and regulatory issue in all jurisdictions around the world. The increased role of gas fired plants in renewable-based electricity markets and the dependence on natural gas imports make this issue particular important for the European energy market. In this paper we provide a comprehensive combined analysis of electricity and natural gas infrastructure with an applied focus: We analyze three different scenarios of the long-term European decarbonization pathways, and analyze the interrelation between electricity and natural gas markets on investments in the long run and spatial aspects in the short run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the welfare impacts of domestic support schemes for generation capacity when energy markets are interconnected. We find that if transmission system operators (TSOs) can't reduce export capacity and neighbors stay energy-only, a capacity market is ineffective unless transmission capacity is small. If TSOs can reduce export capacity, the capacity market attracts investments and Security of Supply (SoS) of non-domestic markets shrink. A neighboring energy-only or strategic reserve market will thus be prejudiced in the long-run and may have to implement a capacity market as well in order to meet its SoS standard. Hence, capacity markets may spread in Europe thanks to their negative cross-border effect on investment incentives. This is in sharp contrast with the conventional wisdom, based on short-term arguments, that energy-only markets will free-ride the SoS provided by neighboring capacity markets. Our conclusions urge for the harmonization of capacity remuneration schemes across Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European natural gas market is characterized by declining indigenous resources, particularly in the UK and the Netherlands, and a growing dependence on a small number of large exporters who, as a consequence, see their market power increasing. In this paper we analyze long-run scenarios for the European natural gas markets in a model, NATGAS, that explicitly includes both factors, resource constraints and producers' market power. Finite resources lead to interdependencies of current production decisions and future opportunities. These decisions in turn depend on the potential for large producers to set market prices above marginal costs. We analyze the impact of conditions on the global LNG market on market shares of pipeline gas suppliers, as well as on the speed of depletion of indigenous European resources. We focus on how shadow prices of resource constraints affect substitution patterns in the various scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper compares electricity wholesale markets in the United States and Europe. The Standard Market Design in the US involves an independent system operator, nodal pricing with financial transmission rights, and integrated markets for capacity and ancillary services. In Europe, there are national, or occasionally zonal, spot markets run by companies independent of the transmission operator, and of the latter's purchases of ancillary services. As the amount of flow-carbon generation increases, prices and transmission constraints are likely to become more volatile, increasing the need to adopt an efficient market design. In most respects, the US standard market design is likely to give better results than the European models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents panel unit root tests for price convergence of different petroleum products over the last decade. We distinguish consumer and producer price convergence and test for the absolute versus relative version of the law of one price. Comparing the speed of convergence as well as its development over time indicates that price arbitrage in the common EU markets is not sufficiently strong to level the price differentials, mainly caused by different excise taxation. We show that taxation alone leads to market segmentation and that discretionary national tax policy by EU member states is not (yet) threatened by the observable level of cross-border shopping. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The electricity liberalization is contested by many European consumers" who hold it responsible for the electricity price increase, but such a conclusion is questionable. As the various spot markets are connected, liberalization will imply a convergence of electricity prices for all European countries if any congestion is observed on the networks. We observe today that German gas power stations are often "marginal power stations"; thus the German spot market is often the price maker. High price for oil means high price for natural gas and indirectly" high price for electricity. Moreover increasing interconnection of electricity markets leads to surplus transfers among European consumers and producers of electricity. But for some people the price increase observed today results also partly from a rise in the market power of electricity producers. This paper examines the position of the main European incumbents in this field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

European wholesale electricity prices have dropped by nearly two thirds since their all-time high around 2008. Different factors have been blamed, or praised, for having caused the price slump: the expansion of renewable energy; the near-collapse of the European emissions trading scheme; over-optimistic power plant investments; a decline in final electricity consumption; and cheap coal and natural gas. This ex-post study of European electricity markets from 2008 to 2015 uses a fundamental power market model to quantify their individual contributions on day-ahead prices. The two countries we study in detail, Germany and Sweden, differ significantly: fuel and CO2 prices were important price drivers in Germany, but in Sweden it was electricity demand. This difference is explained by the nature of the hydro-dominate Nordic electricity system. In both countries, however, the single largest factor depressing prices was the expansion of renewable energy. At the same time, Germany's nuclear phase-out had an upward effect on prices. If one defines the Energiewende as the combination of these two policies, its net effect on power prices was negligible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is an ongoing policy debate in Europe about how to select natural gas infrastructure projects for an EU-wide investment support scheme.We contribute to this debate by introducing a model-based project evaluation method that addresses several shortcomings of the current approach and demonstrate its application on a set of shortlisted investment proposals in Central and South Eastern Europe. Importantly, our selection mechanism deals with the complementarity and the substitutability of new pipelines. We find that a small number of projects are sufficient to maximize the net gain in regional welfare, but different baseline assumptions favor different project combinations. We also explore the consequences of Russian gas permanently delivered at the EU border from northern and southern routes that bypass Ukraine and find modest negative welfare effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We apply the EMF 23 study design to simulate the effects of the reference case and the scenarios to European natural gas supplies to 2025. We use GASMOD, a strategic several-layer model of European natural gas supply, consisting of upstream natural gas producers, traders in each consuming European country (or region), and final demand. Our model results suggest rather modest changes in the overall supply situation of natural gas to Europe, indicating that current worries about energy supply security issues may be overrated. LNG will likely increase its share of European natural gas imports in the future, Russia will not dominate the European imports (share of ~1/3), the Middle East will continue to be a rather modest supplier, the UK is successfully converting from being a natural gas exporter to become a transit node for LNG towards continental Europe, and congested pipeline infrastructure, and in some cases LNG terminals, will remain a feature of the European natural gas markets, but less than in the current situation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Europe is liberalising electricity in accordance with the European Commission's Electricity Directives. Different countries have responded differently, notably in the extent of restructuring, treatment of mergers, market power, and vertical unbundling. While Britain and Norway have achieved effective competition, others like Germany, Spain and France are still struggling to deal with dominant and sometimes vertically integrated companies. The Netherlands offers an interesting intermediate case, where good economic analysis has sometimes been thwarted by legalistic interpretations. Investment under the new Emissions Trading system could further transform the electricity industry but may be hampered by slow progress in liberalising European gas markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In addition to global climate benefits, carbon mitigation improves local air quality by reducing emissions of hazardous co-pollutants. Using data on large industrial point sources in Europe, we estimate how changes in carbon dioxide emissions affect emissions of the three co-pollutants SOX, NOX, and PM10 for samples of 630 to 2,400 facilities for the years 2007 to 2015. We find substantial and statistically significant co-pollutant elasticities of about 1.0 for SOX, 0.9 for NOX, and 0.7 for PM10. These elasticities vary by economic activity, and are substantially higher for the production of energy. For climate policy-induced CO2 emission reductions we find elasticities in the energy sector of 1.2 to 1.8 for SOX, 1.1 to 1.5 for NOX, and 0.8 for PM10. Using these estimates to calculate monetary air quality co-benefits suggests that conventional European Environmental Agency estimates of carbon damages that omit co-benefits significantly underestimate the benefits of carbon mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents a study that compared the development of marginal cost pricing in France and Great Britain nationalized electricity industry between 1945 and 1970. Effects of different routes to marginal cost pricing on later government and public attitudes toward different issues in the industry; Concepts of marginal cost; Difference in the organizational structure and markets expectations on the role of the industry.

This study combines regression analysis with machine learning analysis to study the merit order effect of renewable energy focusing on German market, the largest market in Europe with high renewable energy penetration. The results show that electricity from wind and solar sources reduced the spot market price by 9.64 €/MWh on average during the period from 2010 to 2017. Wind had a relatively stable impact across the day, ranging from 5.88 €/MWh to 8.04 €/MWh, while the solar energy impact varied greatly across different hours, ranging from 0.24 €/MWh to 11.78 €/MWh and having a stronger impact than wind during peak hours. The results also show characteristics of the interactions between renewable energy and spot market prices, including the slightly diminishing merit order effect of renewable energy at high generation volumes. Finally, a scenario-based analysis illustrates how different proportions of wind and solar energies affect the spot market price. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents information on a study which analyzed how the supply side of the Western European natural gas market may react if the demand side becomes competitive. Description of the reference scenario; Impact of a unilateral division of the Norwegian national producer into two independent procedures; Conclusion.

Examines the long-run impact of a radical liberalization of the West-European natural gas markets using a numerical model. Focus on profit maximizing Cournot producers facing an ideal third party access regime for gas transport; Consideration of several market conditions.

In Europe, energy efficiency obligations are imposed on energy retailers competing in liberalized energy markets. They comply by subsidizing energy efficiency investments made by energy end-users from within or outside their customer base. We develop a model describing how competition in the energy market affects compliance strategies. We find that, instead of selecting the most cost-effective investments options, firms may either target their most elastic customers, which enables them to increase their retail price, or their competitor's customers, which protects their sales. Allowing firms to trade obligations can restore cost-effectiveness, but reduces consumer surplus. Overall, the degree of flexibility that should be incorporated into such programs crucially depends on the degree of heterogeneity across investment costs and the relative weights governments assign to cost-effectiveness and consumer surplus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We discuss at the European example how power market design evolves with increasing shares of intermittent renewables. Short-term markets and system operation have to accommodate for the different needs of renewable and conventional generation assets and flexibility options. This can be achieved by pooling resources over larger geographic areas through common auction platforms, realizing the full flexibility of different assets based on multi-part bids while efficiently allocating scarce network resources. For investment and re-investment choices different technology groups like wind and solar versus fossil fuel based generation may warrant a different treatment -- reflecting differing levels of publicly accessible information, requirements for grid infrastructure, types of strategic choices relevant for the sector and shares of capital cost in overall generation costs. We discuss opportunities for such a differentiated treatment while maintaining synergies in short-term system operation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We employ a detailed two-stage model to simulate the operation of the Central Eastern European electricity market and network. Implementing different cases of coordination in congestion management between national transmission system operators, numerical results show the beneficial impact of closer cooperation. Specific steps comprise the sharing of network and dispatch information, crossborder counter-trading, and multilateral redispatch in a flow-based congestion management framework. Efficiency gains are accompanied by distributional effects. Closer economic cooperation becomes especially relevant against the background of changing spatial generation patterns, deeper international integration of national systems, and spillovers of national developments to adjacent systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present an analysis of the optimal development of natural gas infrastructure in Europe based on the scenario studies of Holz and von Hirschhausen (2013). We use a stochastic mixed integer quadratic model to analyze the impact of uncertainty about future natural gas consumption in Europe on optimal investments in pipelines. Our data is based on results from the PRIMES model of natural gas demand and technology scenarios discussed in Knopf et al. (2013). We present a comparison between the results from the stochastic model and the expected value model, as well as an analysis of the individual scenarios. We also performed sensitivity analyses on the probabilities of the future scenarios. Comparison of the results from the stochastic model to those of a deterministic expected value model reveals a negligible Value of the Stochastic Solution.We do, however, find structurally different infrastructure solutions in the stochastic and the deterministic models. Regarding infrastructure expansions, we find that 1) the largest pipeline investments will be towards Asia, 2) there is a trend towards a larger gas supply from Africa to Europe, and 3) within Europe, eastward connections will be strengthened. Our main finding using the stochastic approach is that there is limited option value in delaying investments in natural gas infrastructure, until more information is available regarding policy and technology in 2020, due to the low costs of overcapacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use a panel dataset of about 5,000 Lithuanian firms between 2003 and 2010, to assess the impact of the EU ETS on the environmental and economic performance of participating firms. Using a matching methodology, we are able to estimate the causal impact of EU ETS participation on CO, emissions, CO2 intensity, investment behaviour and profitability of participating firms. Our results show that ETS participation did not lead to a reduction in CO2 emissions, while we identify a slight improvement in CO2 intensity. ETS participants are shown to have retired part of their less efficient capital stock, and to have made modest additional investments from 2010. We also show that the EU ETS did not represent a drag on the profitability of participating firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We explore the relationships among the North American, European and Asian natural gas markets for evidence of convergence and integration for the January 1997 through May 2011 period. The analyses are conducted under a multivariate framework, so the dynamics among the prices can be captured without the necessity of identifying an anchor price series. We find evidence of convergence among the Japanese, Korean, Taiwanese and UK prices. The North American price displays behaviour that is distinct from this group of prices. We conclude that there is not a fully integrated international natural gas market. The integration between European (represented by NBP) and Asian geographic regions appears to be due primarily to underlying contractual mechanisms specifically linking natural gas prices to oil prices rather than the result of market supply and demand interactions. We also find that the relationship among the Asian markets has evolved with Japanese prices adjusting to changes in South Korean and Taiwanese prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]