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Much of the policy debates on climate issues have centered on the optimal level and timing of policy interventions that cost-effectively reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We briefly review the range of policy issues in our paper and assess the impact that climate-change policies may have on energy use and carbon emissions in the US pulp and paper industry. We then present results from time series-based analyses of changes in technologies and fuel mix, and compare the results with engineering-based technology analyses of US pulp and paper production (for a copy of the model and software send e-mail to mruth@bu.edu.). Projections, based on information for eight paper and paperboard categories, are presented for the years 1995–2020. The findings indicate that, under a wide range of specifications and policy assumptions, carbon emissions from fossil fuel use per ton of product are likely to decline. When combined with investment incentives, an additional cost-effective reduction in carbon emissions per ton of product will be realized. However, expected increases in output from the industry are likely to be higher than the reductions in energy and carbon intensities. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.

The paper assesses evidence concerning the effects of transportation's black carbon emissions on climate change, public health, and food production; and it discusses policy issues posed by the emissions. Black carbon emission mitigation policies at all levels offer significant potential climate, health, and food co-benefits, and they are attractive in terms of economic cost-effectiveness and political feasibility. The paper presents an analysis of regulatory issues in maritime shipping and aviation, which are increasingly salient, and which are largely independent of the revelations of “diesel gate” in the motor vehicle industry. Yet, there are linkages in the technological and policy issues of the motor vehicle industry and issues confronting maritime shipping and aviation. Black carbon emissions are among the core regulatory policy issues in all three industries, and they have not been adequately addressed by policymakers. The paper concludes with specific policy recommendations at all governance levels.

The transport sector is attracting increasingly attention in the context of climate change and sustainable development, for its rapidly growing demand for energy and heavy reliance on oil products. Especially in China, where the demands for transportation are tremendous and ever-increasing, it is worthy to explore the provincial variations in energy efficiency in the transport sector, in order to enhance energy efficiency and to promote energy savings in this sector. By using stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) approach, this paper calculates the provincial energy efficiency as well as energy saving potential in China’s provincial transport sector over 2007–2016. Results suggest that China’s national average energy input efficiency in the transport industry is 0.673 during the sample period, which implied that relatively large degree of non-efficiency exists in this sector. Besides, the increase of government support (GS), the improvement of road condition (RC) and public transport (PT) are influencing factors for the improvement of China’s provincial energy efficiency in the transport industry. Additionally, energy saving potential in the transport sector is also estimated in this paper. It is shown that, although energy efficiency in the eastern China is the highest (much higher than the country-wide level), the estimated absolute amount of the energy saving potential in the eastern area is significantly larger than those in the central area and western area due to the fact that the eastern area contributes to the largest share of the total energy consumption in this sector.

Despite great efforts to increase energetic retrofitting rates in the residential building stock, greenhouse gas emissions are still too high to counteract climate change. One barrier is that policy measures are mostly national and do not address local differences. Even though there is plenty of research on instruments to overcome general barriers of energetic retrofitting, literature does not consider differences in local peculiarities. Thus, this paper aims to provide guidance for policy-makers by deriving evidence from over 19 million Energy Performance Certificates and socio-economic data from England, Scotland, and Wales. We find that building archetypes with their respective energetic retrofitting needs differ locally and that socio-economic factors show a strong correlation to the buildings’ energy efficiency, with the correlation varying depending on different degrees of this condition. For example, factors associated to employment mainly affect buildings with lower energy efficiency whereas the impact on more efficient buildings is limited. The findings of this paper allow for tailoring local policy instruments to fit the local peculiarities. We obtain a list of the most important socio-economic factors influencing the regional energy efficiency. Further, for two exemplary factors, we illustrate how local policy instruments should consider local retrofitting needs and socio-economic factors.

In coping with climate change, China's CO2 mitigation targets should keep in step with the achievement of the long-term goal of holding temperature increase to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels by the end of this century (this is referred to as the 2 °C goal). Many previous papers have highlighted the implications of different effort-sharing principles and schemes in determining national contributions to global mitigations. In this paper, China's energy transformation towards the 2 °C goal until 2100 is examined in an integrated-assessment model in light of different effort-sharing principles to understand how the application of such schemes may alter China's energy system transformation on a pathway to this long-term goal. Across scenarios, China's non-fossil energy will account for 50–70% and 85% of primary energy consumption in 2050 and 2100, respectively in the scenarios in this study. Fossil energy with carbon capture and storage technologies and non-fossil energy will dominate power generation in China over the long run. Coal will be phased out in end-use sectors and electricity use will expand regardless of the effort-sharing principles. The sensitivity analysis of long-term steady-state levels implies that the ultimate level that emissions could reach will have great influences on the energy system transformation in China.

Against the background of climate change, oil-gas-coal companies are particularly concerned by the notion of stranded assets, i.e., the fact that known fossil reserves cannot be burnt should limitations on greenhouse gas emissions become more stringent. Those assets can suffer from unanticipated or premature write-downs, devaluations or conversion to liabilities. This paper simulates the impacts of carbon stranded assets for 17 major oil-gas-coal firms' value until the horizon 2050. The core of the paper is a stochastic model with stopping times that determines by initial conditions (reserves and extraction rates) which companies are left with ‘stranded assets.’ In the business-as-usual scenario, one-quarter of the Earth's capacity for absorbing emissions will be depleted by 2050. With stringent emissions-curbing policies, an environmental gain of 80% can be achieved. Without a restructuring of their business model, many oil-gas-coal companies stand out from our simulations as being particularly vulnerable to the financial risks of bankruptcies and default events.

The attention of policy makers on aviation environmental impacts has increased meaningfully over the last years. In order to limit the CO2 emissions in the transport sector, the EU has decided to include the aviation industry in the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU-ETS), from 1st January 2012 with the Directive 101/2008/EC. The aim of this paper is to provide an estimation of the direct costs linked to EU-ETS that the aviation sector is standing, reporting the case of Italy. In details, this work proposes a calculation of the EU-ETS direct costs that Italian airline companies under the scheme, afforded over the period 2012–2014. Then, it presents a forecast of the EU-ETS direct costs for the years 2015–2016, referring to three scenarios related to different hypotheses on emission permit price (low, medium, high bounded scenarios), and on pass-through of these costs onto final passengers. Finally, the paper measures the effects of these costs in terms of change in airfares, revenues, and social costs. The calculations are obtained by following an economic model designed by the authors, which can also be extended to investigate other sectors covered by the EU-ETS.

Transformation of Asia's transport sector has vital implications for climate change, sustainable development and energy indicators. Papers in this special issue show how transport transitions in Asia may play out in different socio-economic and policy scenarios, including a low carbon scenario equivalent to 2 °C stabilization. Accounting for heterogeneity of national transport systems, these papers use diverse methods, frameworks and models to assess the response of the transport system to environmental policy, such as a carbon tax, as well as to a cluster of policies aimed at diverse development indicators. The analysis shows that CO2 mitigation in a transport system is achieved more effectively by aligning mitigation policies with sustainable development policies and measures such as mandates for mode share and choices such as urban design, information and communication systems, and behavioral measures. Authors therefore advocate policies that target multiple dividends vis-a-vis carbon mitigation, energy security and local air quality. Whereas four papers focus on emissions mitigation policies, one paper examines challenges to adapt fast growing transport infrastructures to future climate change induced risks. Collectively, the papers exemplify a set of policies and measures that can deliver co-benefits, and, also, demonstrate the use of methods, frameworks and models to delineate the optimal mix of such policies and measures.

Highlights: • We report the results of a Scottish large group workshop on energy technologies. • There is strong public support for renewable energy and mixed opinions towards CCS. • The workshop was successful in initiating discussion around climate change and energy technologies. • Issues of trust, uncertainty, costs, benefits, values and emotions all inform public perceptions. • Need to take seriously the full range of factors that inform perceptions. Abstract: This paper presents the results of a large group process conducted in Edinburgh, Scotland investigating public perceptions of climate change and low-carbon energy technologies, specifically carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS). The quantitative and qualitative results reported show that the participants were broadly supportive of efforts to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, and that there is an expressed preference for renewable energy technologies to be employed to achieve this. CCS was considered in detail during the research due to its climate mitigation potential; results show that the workshop participants were cautious about its deployment. The paper discusses a number of interrelated factors which appear to influence perceptions of CCS; factors such as the perceived costs and benefits of the technology, and people's personal values and trust in others all impacted upon participants’ attitudes towards the technology. The paper thus argues for the need to provide the public with broad-based, balanced and trustworthy information when discussing CCS, and to take seriously the full range of factors that influence public perceptions of low-carbon technologies.

This paper is a review of the most recent literature on the interaction between climate change, land-use and energy, based on the analysis of papers collected through the most relevant scientific literature databases. A total of 114 papers published between 2000 and 2011 were reviewed. The aims of this review are: in general (1) to identify the different research topics that have been developed related to the interaction between climate change, land-use and energy; more specifically, (2) to analyze what are the most suitable spatial and temporal scales of investigation to focus on for actions and strategies to reduce critical issues in the field of energy and environment; (3) to identify which actions and strategies are deemed as the most appropriate to mitigate critical issues in energy and environment; and given the research gaps found in the review, (4) to propose research recommendations in the context of effective climate-energy planning. We argue that there are certain gaps and needs for a ―nested‖ environmental governance. It is necessary to understand how different environmental policies overlap and how they can be integrated in order to verify whether there are conflicting targets that may negate each other in the long term.

A significant proportion of the world's greenhouse gas emissions can be attributed, directly or indirectly, to corporate activities. An increasing number of companies have set targets and have adopted initiatives to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, raising the question of what sorts of outcomes can realistically be expected from corporate action on climate change? This paper aims to shed some light on this issue through an analysis of the climate change performance of the UK supermarket sector. This sector is directly responsible for around 1% of UK greenhouse gas emissions, but it has been estimated that indirectly it may be responsible for up to 10% of emissions. In the period between 2000 and 2010, the major UK supermarkets transformed their approach to climate change. This paper examines the outcomes that resulted from these actions. It finds that there have been significant and steady improvements in energy efficiency, but that these efficiency gains are often outstripped by the impacts of business growth. For most companies, short of a radical redesign of their business activities, or an expansion of the scope of their energy management initiatives to include their indirect emissions, total greenhouse gas emissions will tend to increase over time.

Cook et al. (2013) (C13) found that 97% of relevant climate papers endorse anthropogenic global warming (AGW), consistent with previous independent studies. Tol (in press) (T14) agrees that the scientific literature ‘overwhelmingly supports’ AGW, but disputes C13′s methods. We show that T14′s claims of a slightly lower consensus result from a basic calculation error that manufactures approximately 300 nonexistent rejection papers. T14′s claimed impact on consensus due to the reconciliation process is of the wrong sign, with reconciliation resulting in a slight increase (

In the frame of the European project titled “Zero Waste” (1G-MED08-533), a tool has been developed called CO2ZW for estimating the GHG emissions for the management of MSW at the municipal, regional or national levels with small amounts of input data. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate that the CO2ZW tool allows us to inventory and monitor GHG emissions from MSW following the IPCC guidelines for national inventories and the principles of life cycle assessment (LCA). The CO2ZW tool includes the key stages and parameters for calculating GHG emissions and includes several advantages regarding the implementation of the default values of the Mediterranean European countries, an improvement in accessibility (online free access) and two approaches for calculating GHG emissions from landfills. The results of this paper show that for countries with medium and high rates of deposition, implementation of the European policies limiting waste in landfills can contribute to mitigate climate change in a remarkable way. With the CO2ZW tool, it is possible to evaluate waste management choices depending on waste management infrastructures and waste policies, along with the quantification of GHG emissions from MSW management, which is essential to guide waste policy options and climate change solutions.

Lithuania has developed several important climate change mitigation policy documents however there are no attempts in Lithuania to develop local climate change mitigation policies or to decentralize climate change mitigation policy. Seeking to achieve harmonization and decentralization of climate change mitigation and energy policies in Lithuania the framework for local climate change mitigation strategy need to be developed taking into account requirements, targets and measures set in national climate change mitigation and energy policy documents. The paper will describe how national climate change mitigation and energy policies can be implemented via local energy and climate change mitigation plans. The aim of the paper is to analyze the climate change mitigation policy and its relationship with policies promoting sustainable energy development in Lithuania and to present a framework for local approaches to climate change mitigation in Lithuania, in the context of the existing national and supra-national energy, climate change, and rural development policies.

Even though energy poverty alleviation and climate change mitigation are inextricably linked policy goals, they have remained as relatively disconnected fields of research inquiry and policy development. Acknowledging this gap, this paper explores the mainstream academic and policy literatures to provide a taxonomy of interactions and identify synergies and trade-offs between them. The most important trade-off identified is the potential increase in energy poverty levels as a result of strong climate change action if the internalisation of the external costs of carbon emissions is not offset by efficiency gains. The most significant synergy was found in deep energy efficiency in buildings. The paper argues that neither of the two problems – deep reductions in GHG emissions by mid-century, and energy poverty eradication – is likely to be solved fully on their own merit, while joining the two policy goals may provide a very solid case for deep efficiency improvements. Thus, the paper calls for a strong integration of these two policy goals (plus other key related benefits like energy security or employment), in order to provide sufficient policy motivation to mobilise a wide-scale implementation of deep energy efficiency standards.

Increasing energy use and the need to mitigate climate change make production of liquid biofuels ahigh priority. Farmers respond worldwide to this increasing demand by converting forests andgrassland into biofuel crops, but whether biofuels offer carbon savings depends on the carbonemissions that occur when land use is changed to biofuel crops. This paper reports the results of astudy on cassava-based bioethanol production undertaken in the Sikasso region in Southern Mali.The paper outlines the estimated impacts on above-ground carbon stocks when land use is changed toincrease cassava production. The results show that expansion of cassava production for bioethanol willmost likely lead to the conversion of fallow areas to cassava. A land use change from fallow to cassavacreates a reduction in the above-ground carbon stocks in the order of 4–13 Mg C ha 1 , depending on(a) the age of the fallow, (b) the allometric equation used and (c) whether all trees are removed or thelarger, useful trees are preserved. This ‘carbon debt’ associated with the above-ground biomass losswould take 8–25 years to repay if fossil fuels are replaced with cassava-based bioethanol.& 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Targeted measures influencing vehicle technology are increasingly a tool of energy policy makers within the EU as a means of meeting energy efficiency, renewable energy, climate change and energy security goals. This paper develops the modelling capacity for analysing and evaluating such legislation, with a focus on private car energy demand. We populate a baseline car stock and car activity model for Ireland to 2025 using historical car stock data. The model takes account of the lifetime survival profile of different car types, the trends in vehicle activity over the fleet and the fuel price and income elasticities of new car sales and total fleet activity. The impacts of many policy alternatives may only be simulated by such a bottom-up approach, which can aid policy development and evaluation. The level of detail achieved provides specific insights into the technological drivers of energy consumption, thus aiding planning for meeting climate targets. This paper focuses on the methodology and baseline scenario. Baseline results for Ireland forecast a decline in private car energy demand growth (0.2%, compared with 4% in the period 2000–2008), caused by the relative growth in fleet efficiency compared with activity.

This article presents the findings of a study that examined three municipalities in the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, Canada, in order to determine the nature of the socio-cultural and institutional barriers to action on climate change at the local level. The central goals of this paper are: (1) to propose a simple typology of institutional and socio-cultural barriers to action by gathering insights from an inter-disciplinary set of literatures; (2) to explore the ways that these barriers influence the utilization of various forms of capacity to achieve greenhouse gas reduction and resiliency in three case study communities; and (3) to understand the dynamic interactions amongst, and relative importance of, these barriers at the local level. The evidence presented in this paper indicates that barriers are deeply interwoven phenomena, which may reinforce one another and create substantial inertia behind unsustainable patterns of municipal operations. Nevertheless, the same factors that can inhibit action on climate change (such as an organizational culture of combativeness or mutual disrespect) can also facilitate it (as with a culture of collaboration or innovation). This article suggests that a deeper understanding of the ways in which barriers can be transformed into enablers of action is a critical next step in the evolution climate change policy design and implementation at the local level.

Dynamic targets have been long advocated as a participatory tool for developing countries in climate change mitigation. Copenhagen commitments of India and China resume this trend after the unsuccessful attempt of Argentina a decade ago. However, linear intensity targets are prone to ‘hot air’ problems or non-compliance risks. Intensity targets of India and China are analyzed using their elasticity parameters. The relationship of these parameters to the structural nature of emissions and GDP profiles has been demonstrated and a method of comparing the probability indices of target achievement has been formulated in this paper, showing a lower probability for China compared to India. Similarly, a method of defining stringency factor for linear targets has been suggested and stringency factors evaluated for India (40%) and China (90%), which shows the relative stability of India’s targets. This paper evaluates an energy–GDP–emissions index (EYE index) to indicate the extent of coupling/decoupling of economic growth from emissions. The three indices developed in this paper, namely, elasticity parameter, stringency factor and EYE index can be effectively used to analyze the economy–emissions relationships for policy making and target setting.

This paper describes the methodology and data used to determine greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions attributable to ten cities or city-regions: Los Angeles County, Denver City and County, Greater Toronto, New York City, Greater London, Geneva Canton, Greater Prague, Barcelona, Cape Town and Bangkok. Equations for determining emissions are developed for contributions from: electricity; heating and industrial fuels; ground transportation fuels; air and marine fuels; industrial processes; and waste. Gasoline consumption is estimated using three approaches: from local fuel sales; by scaling from regional fuel sales; and from counts of vehicle kilometres travelled. A simplified version of an intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) method for estimating the GHG emissions from landfill waste is applied. Three measures of overall emissions are suggested: (i) actual emissions within the boundary of the city; (ii) single process emissions (from a life-cycle perspective) associated with the city's metabolism; and (iii) life-cycle emissions associated with the city's metabolism. The results and analysis of the study will be published in a second paper.

An essential issue in future climate negotiations is how to bring developing countries on board. This paper proposes and applies the two-level interest-based model to analyze the factors that affect the likely stances of the “Plus Five” countries (Brazil, China, India, Mexico, and South Africa) on international climate negotiations. This study finds mitigation capability to be a crucial factor which consists of at least such sub-factors as per capita income, energy endowment, and economic structure, while ecological vulnerability does not seem to play an important role which includes reductions in agricultural outputs, sea-level rise, climate-related natural disasters, and others. The paper proposes six options in an ascending order of stringency that the Plus Five are likely to adopt. The paper suggests that the “Basic Four” (the Plus Five excluding Mexico), particularly China and India, are less likely to adopt a voluntary commitment to an emissions cap on the national economy in the near future than Mexico, which has the highest mitigation capability among all five. The Basic Four are likely to adopt more stringent climate polices with increasing mitigation capabilities, suggesting the importance of effective international financial and technology transfer mechanisms and further tighten emission reduction targets from developed countries.

This paper begins with the international context concerning climate change and how China fits into this context. Concentration is then turning into the emissions control system in China including environmental planning, legislation, policy instruments and measures as well as institutional setting in China’s environmental governance system. Special attentions also being paid to emissions control in China’s power sector. It should be noted that the pollution discharge permit system in China only exists superficially in many places. Insufficient resources are applied to the implementation of the said permit system, which in turn means that the system is applied according to differing standards in different parts of the country. The findings of this paper suggested that emissions trading programmes are usually introduced alongside the existing policies. The power sector usually has numerous other policy objectives and therefore the design and implementation of emissions trading programmes in the sector will have to address concern about the compatibility of existing industry policies.

After some two decades of inattention, the issue of energy security once again moved to the top of the policy agenda in Germany in the mid-2000s. After briefly achieving renewed prominence, however, it was eclipsed in German energy policy, at least temporarily, by heightened concerns about climate change. This paper explains the re-emergence of concerns about energy insecurity in recent years as well as the reasons for their subsequent overshadowing. It describes and explains the steps that have been taken during this period to promote German energy security and analyzes their adequacy. The paper identifies a number of reasons to be skeptical about how much the agreed policies will improve Germany's energy security, but it concludes that there are nevertheless good reasons to expect the issue to regain the attention of policy-makers in the future.

For over two decades, scientific and political communities have debated whether and how to act on climate change. The present paper revisits these debates and synthesizes the longstanding arguments. Firstly, it provides an overview of the development of international climate policy and discusses clashing positions, represented by sceptics and supporters of action on climate change. Secondly, it discusses the market-based measures as a means to increase the win–win opportunities and to attract profit-minded investors to invest in climate change mitigation. Finally, the paper examines whether climate protection policies can yield benefits both for the environment and the economy. A new breed of analysts are identified who are convinced of the climate change problem, while remaining sceptical of the proposed solutions. The paper suggests the integration of climate policies with those of development priorities that are vitally important for developing countries and stresses the need for using sustainable development as a framework for climate change policies.

To point out the direction and focus of future international climate negotiations, this paper discusses how far developing country commitments can go in an immediate post-2012 climate regime. The paper argues that developing country commitments are most unlikely to go beyond the defined polices and measures in this timeframe. On this basis, the paper suggests that, rather than attempting the unrealistic goal, international climate negotiations may instead need to initially frame the post-2012 developing country participation in terms of certain policies and policies that I envisioned a decade ago. This conclusion does not change, as Barack Obama becomes the U.S. President and the Democrats have regained control over both U.S. House of Representatives and Senate. However, it should be emphasized that his stance on climate issues and how ambitious U.S. commitments would be under his administration are going to be critical for developing countries to take bold steps themselves and to even agree to reflect those national commitments in a global deal.

The selection of climate policy has to be made in an extremely uncertain environment: both benefits and costs of a particular climate policy are unknown and in the best case Could be described by the probability distribution of various outcomes. Dominated in literature, the expected value approach to the cost-benefit analysis of climate policy under uncertainties relies on the aggregated estimation of various outcomes of climate policy weighted and averaged by probabilities. The variance, skewness, and kurtosis are important characteristics of uncertainties but can be easily lost in the process of aggregation. The real option analysis (ROA) explicitly accounts for both the expected value of underling assets and the variance of the expected value (as well as skewness and kurtosis that are important to describe a fat tail phenomenon). In the paper, we propose an application of the real option analysis in order to formulate rules for the selection of a climate policy (emission target) and estimate the economic value of the future flexibility created by interim climate policy, which may be corrected in the future in response to new knowledge that hopefully reduces uncertainties. The initially selected interim policy has an option value and methodology for its valuation presented in the paper. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Buildings are responsible for over a third of global energy-related carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. A significant share of these emissions can be avoided cost effectively through improved energy efficiency, while providing the same or higher level of energy services. How large is this emission reduction potential globally and how much will it cost for society to unlock it? This paper provides answers to these questions, presenting the results of bottom-up research conducted for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on the assessment of 80 country- or regional-level mitigation studies throughout the world. First, the paper analyses the findings of these studies in a common framework. Then, it aggregates their results into a global estimate of CO 2 mitigation potential. The paper concludes that by 2020 it is possible to cut cost effectively approximately 29% of buildings-related global CO 2 emissions, the largest among all sectors reported by the IPCC, representing a 3.2 GtCO 2 eq. reduction. Developing countries house the largest cost-effective potential with up to 52% of building-level emissions, whereas transition economies and industrialised countries have cost-effective potentials of up to 37% and 25%, respectively. Energy-efficient lighting was identified as the most attractive measure worldwide, in terms of both reduction potential and cost effectiveness. If this potential is realised, the building-related CO 2 emissions would stay constant over 2004–2030. These stabilisation levels (if achieved by all other sectors) would cancel about 3°C temperature increase over the projected period of time.

This paper focuses upon topics related to current and possible future extreme weather events in order to highlight the links between climatic change and its economic impacts. Most of the examples given here are drawn from observations in Switzerland and the Alpine region that have a wealth of climatic, environmental and socio-economic data. These enable detailed studies to be undertaken on trends in mean and extreme climates and their impacts. Model simulations for a “greenhouse climate” suggest that risks associated with various forms of extreme events that affect the Alps may increase in the future, which could lead to high damage costs. In addition to the direct impacts of extremes, it is also necessary to take into account the increasing economic value of infrastructure located in zones potentially at risk. The final part of the paper addresses some of the issues that are related to fully integrated modeling approaches that are aimed at assessing the costs of damage in the wake of an extreme event.

Climate change threatens significant impacts on global ecosystems and human populations. To address this challenge, industrialized nations have ratified the Kyoto Protocol and undertaken commitments to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, the primary agents linked to anthropogenic alteration of earth’s climate. By contrast, the US government, led by the Bush Administration, has rejected mandatory targets for curbing emissions under the Protocol, and has instead pursued voluntary mitigation measures amid a larger push for clean coal and ‘‘next generation’’ nuclear technologies. These actions in total have fueled global perceptions that the US is not acting in substantial ways to address climate change. Nevertheless, action within the US is indeed moving forward, with states, cities and regional partnerships filling the federal leadership vacuum. This paper reviews the diverse policies, strategies, and cooperative frameworks that have emerged at regional, state and local levels to guide climate protection, and identifies the environmental and economic benefits linked to such programs. The paper also attempts to explain the existing federal impasse on climate policy, with attention given to how sub-national efforts may ultimately obviate national governmental inaction. r 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The paper surveys the major challenges to stabilizing the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Climate change, and policies to deal with it, is viewed as an energy problem. The energy problem stems from the fact that no combination of carbon-free energies is currently capable of displacing fossil fuels as the main sources of the world's base load energy requirements. The paper provides rough estimates of the amount of carbon-free energy required to stabilize climate, the potential contribution of “conventional” carbon-free energies, the contribution of renewable energies, and the size of an “advanced energy technology gap”. The findings indicate that stabilizing CO2 concentration will require a long-term commitment to research, develop, and eventually deploy new energy sources and technologies including hydrogen. The paper suggests that the role of technology is what makes stabilizing CO2 concentration economically feasible. In this respect energy technology and economics are complementary, with advances in the former requiring something more than a reliance on market-based instruments, such as carbon taxes and emission permits. The analysis has implications for the credibility of commitments to target climate change-related factors such as CO2 emissions.

This paper extends the arguments surrounding carbon lock-in elaborated in Unruh (Energy Policy 28 (2000) 817; 30 (2002) 317) to countries currently undergoing industrialization. It argues that, for numerous reasons, industrializing countries are unlikely to leapfrog carbon intensive energy development. On the contrary, carbon lock-in may be globalizing and could further constrain climate change mitigation options. It is then argued that many policy recommendations ignore carbon lock-in, possibly limiting their potential for successful implementation. The paper then discusses four policy approaches that appear to have advantages given lock-in conditions. It is recognized, however, that relative ease of implementation does not necessarily equate with superiority. Instead, it is merely a path dependent outcome of past development decisions. Pursuing policies on the basis of relative implementation ease may help address the issue of climate change, but could also result in sub-optimal outcomes along other dimensions of sustainable development.

Motor vehicle activity is growing rapidly in India and other less-industrialized countries in Asia. This growth is contributing to serious health and welfare effects due to vehicle emissions, and energy insecurity, acidification and climate change. This paper applies the problem-structuring tools of “value-focused thinking” to inform policy-making and implementation related to this complex problem in a difficult context, with specific reference to motorized two-wheeled vehicles, which play an important role in transport air pollution but also provide affordable mobility to millions with few other attractive options. The paper describes the process used to elicit and structure objectives and measures, based on interviews conducted by the author, and demonstrates how the objectives and measures can be used to more effectively characterize policy impacts, and create policy packages that have a better chance of long-term success.

This paper examines the merits of implementing energy efficiency policies in the building sector in Lebanon following the approach normally adopted in Climate Change studies. The paper first examines the impact of the energy sector on the Lebanese economy, and then assesses the feasibility of implementing suitable energy efficiency options in the building sector. For this purpose, a detailed analysis of the building sector in Lebanon is presented with emphasis on the thermal characteristics of building envelopes and the energy consuming equipment. The long-term benefits of applying energy efficiency options in the building sector are then assessed using a scenario-type analysis that compares these benefits against those of a baseline scenario that assumes no significant implementation of energy efficiency policies. Finally, feasible options are highlighted and recommendations to remove the major barriers hindering the penetration of energy efficiency options in the Lebanese market are provided.

In 2008 and 2009 two papers by Kharecha and Hansen and by Nel and Cooper examined possible fossil energy availability and energy consumption scenarios and consequences for future climate. The papers yield somewhat similar results regarding atmospheric CO2 levels, but they reach substantially different conclusions regarding future climate change. Here, we compare their methods and results. Our work shows that Nel and Cooper's paper significantly underestimates future warming. Nel and Cooper conclude that even if all the available fossil fuels would be burned at the maximum possible rate during this century, the consequent warming would cap at less than 1 °C above the 2000 level. We find that – under Nel and Cooper's assumption of an intensive exploitation of fossil fuels – the global temperature in 2100 will likely reach levels which would lead to severely damaging long-term impacts.

This paper confronts the theory of discounting with climate change economics. Standard discounting would give long-term damages a very low present value. On the other hand, low discount rates would imply more sacrifices for present generations, although future generations may be richer. And using multiple rates would lead to economic inefficiencies. The paper first shows that arguments favouring a low or zero discount rate in general are weak, even from an ethical point of view. It goes on by considering different arguments in favour of discount rates decreasing over time, and by recalling the argument that non-reproducible environmental assets should be given a value growing over time. Through the example of climate change, it finally shows that the latter argument not only implies that the costs of damages associated to climate change should not be underestimated, but also reinforce the legitimacy of using decreasing discount rates.

The climate change debate has drawn attention to the problem of greenhouse gases emissions into the atmosphere. One of the most important issues in the policy debate is the role that should be played by developing countries in joining the commitment of developed countries to reduce GHG emissions, and particularly CO2 emissions. This debate calls into play the relationship between energy consumption, CO2 emissions and economic development. In this paper we use a panel data model for 110 world countries to estimate the relationship between CO2 emissions and GDP and to produce emission forecast. The paper contains three major results: (i) the empirical relationship between carbon dioxide and income is well described by non-linear Gamma and Weibull specifications as opposed to more usual linear and log-linear functional forms; (ii) our single equation reduced form model is comparable in terms of forecasted emissions with other more complex, less data driven models; (iii) despite the decreasing marginal propensity to pollute, our forecasts show that future global emissions will rise. The average world growth of CO2 emissions between 2000 and 2020 is about 2.2%/yr, while that of non-Annex 1 countries is posted at 3.3%/yr.

This paper summarizes a series of six workshops that estimated the effects of potential climate change commitments on six energy intensive industries. The six industries are: steel, chemicals, paper and pulp, aluminum, cement and petroleum refining. The climate policy commitments are assumed to apply to the US and other OECD countries, but not to developing countries. The assumed commitments would produce a substantial reduction in industrial output and employment in the US and in other participating countries. Non-participating countries would experience economic gain in these industries. Global carbon emissions would be redistributed and may not decline. An increase in fossil fuel prices would not encourage US industries to substitute capital for energy to reduce emissions, which indicates that capital and energy are complements in these industries.

This paper is intended to provide an overview of the state of the art integrated socioeconomic-biophysical assessments of climate change as presented at the IIASA workshop in October 1993. The paper seeks to tally the major improvements facilitated by integrated assessments in understanding the global warming problem and the crucial unresolved problems they currently face. The basic conclusion is that, as a result of a healthy diversity in practice, integrated assessments show significant progress in structuring the economic issues of climate change and providing the first broad insights into policy options. But, as some of the simple and traditional cases seem to be solved, more complex and difficult contingencies come to the fore. This suggests a long way to go to develop skills that will be required to address the numerous open issues.

When public policies with impacts far into the future are being debated, the question inevitably is raised whether cost-benefit analysis which discounts future costs and benefits is not biased against future generations and whether, if such discounting is appropriate at all, a lower rate should be used to avoid such bias. The debate on global climate change is no exception. This paper sketches and analyses the welfare foundations of cost-benefit analysis and from this perspective analyses the role of cost-benefit analysis in the climate policy debate, particularly with reference to intergenerational effects. The paper concludes that the cost-benefit criterion cannot provide a definitive basis for deciding whether we should commit to a longer-term programme to moderate climate change; the issues of intergenerational equity are not that global climate change will significantly lower the GNP of future generations, but relate to the possibility of science fiction-like changes in the planet that will produce catastrophic effects in the future; and the typical way in which the cost-benefit problem is posed obscures the basic choices that we should be evaluating.

Current debate focuses on the need for the transport sector to contribute to more ambitious carbon emission reduction targets. In the UK, various macro-economic and energy system wide, top-down models are used to explore the potential for energy demand and carbon emissions reduction in the transport sector. These models can lack the bottom-up, sectoral detail needed to simulate the effects of integrated demand and supply-side policy strategies to reduce emissions. Bridging the gap between short-term forecasting and long-term scenario "models", this paper introduces a newly developed strategic transport, energy, emissions and environmental impacts model, the UK Transport Carbon Model (UKTCM). The UKTCM covers the range of transport-energy-environment issues from socio-economic and policy influences on energy demand reduction through to life cycle carbon emissions and external costs. The model is demonstrated in this paper by presenting the results of three single policies and one policy package scenario. Limitations of the model are also discussed. Developed under the auspices of the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) the UKTCM can be used to develop transport policy scenarios that explore the full range of technological, fiscal, regulatory and behavioural change policy interventions to meet UK climate change and energy security goals. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

This paper investigates the fundamental problem of mitigating the impacts of climate change in an environment of uncertainty and learning. In particular; the paper uses a stochastic version of Nordhaus's DICE model to show that the irreversibility of investment capital has a stronger effect than irreversibilities in climate change (other than catastrophic effects). The implications are that if abatement decisions are irreversible, there should be less emission control today than would be optimal without taking learning into account; and that policy makers should pursue control policies that are costlessly reversible — a variant on the no regrets strategy.

Greenhouse gas emissions from personal transport have risen steadily in the UK. Yet, surprisingly little is known about who exactly is contributing to the problem and the extent to which different groups of the population will be affected by any policy responses. This paper describes an innovative methodology and evaluation tool for profiling annual greenhouse gas emissions from personal travel across all modes of travel. A case study application of the methodology involving a major survey of UK residents provides an improved understanding of the extent to which individual and household travel activity patterns, choice of transport mode, geographical location, socio-economic and other factors impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Air and car travel dominate overall emissions. Conversely, land-based public transport accounts for a very small proportion of emissions on average. There is a highly unequal distribution of emissions amongst the population, independent of the mode of travel, location and unit of analysis. The top 10% of emitters are responsible for 43% of emissions and the bottom 10% for only 1%. Income, economic activity, age, household structure and car availability significantly influence emissions levels. Key policy implications of the results are discussed. The paper concludes by suggesting potential applications of the methodology and evaluation tool.

The majority of man's activities involve some degree of risk and the production and use of energy are no exception. For example, the burning of coal for the production of heat and electricity is the main source of sulphor oxides responsible for acid rain. Such risks have not kept mankind from using increasing amounts of energy from fossil fuels. More recently nuclear energy has entered into the picture. All these problems, although very serious, are somewhat localized. But more recently the concern with the risks associated with energy-use have increased because they have become problems of a global nature, such as the destruction of the ozone layer over Antarctica and the ‘greenhouse effect’ resultant from the increased amount of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) in the atmosphere. This effect could cause a rise in sea level, climatic change and great transformation in the patterns of land use. This paper looks at how to cope with these increased risks. Two strategies are being considered at present: adaptive and preventive. This paper favours the preventive strategy.

A transition away from fossil fuels in South Africa is required to meet the obligations of the Paris Agreement, and to address the challenge of climate change. The country remains on an unsustainable path towards increasing fossil fuel dependency, while its immense potential for renewable energy lies untapped. Urgent work is needed to identify and assess the policy barriers which are holding the country back. The limited literature on barrier theory is reviewed, and a new taxonomy of policy barriers is developed. This is then used to interpret the findings of 28 elite semi-structured interviews with key organisations and individuals, which are analysed to ascertain what lies beneath the current direction of travel, and how these barriers are impeding progress. The paper develops the policy implications of those findings and presents conclusions for action needed by the South African government and others. It further concludes that the techniques developed are applicable to a wide range of transitional situations.

This Correspondence takes issue with the repeated use of the term “energy bullying” by authors Monyei, Jenkins, Serestina and Adewumi in their paper Energy Policy 119 (2018) pp68-76. Reasons are advanced why the authors' criticism of the global north lacks clear empirical evidence, and risks undermining efforts to combat climate change. A more constructive approach of working together between global south and global north is put forward by the corresponding authors.

One key means of reducing the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions caused by heating, lighting and ventilating buildings is the use of more efficient low and zero-carbon generating technologies (LZCGTs). In recognition of this, Section 72 of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009, requires Local Development Plans (LDPs) to include policies to ensure ‘that all new buildings avoid a specified and rising proportion of the projected greenhouse gas emissions from their use, calculated on the basis of the approved design and plans for the specific development, through the installation and operation of LZCGT's.’ This study utilises data collected from 5 Scottish Local Authorities who were early adopters of this policy and examines LZCGT uptake in a randomly selected sample of new domestic buildings and the impact the use of these technologies have on CO2 emission reduction. Quantitative data extracted from Standard Assessment Procedure reports submitted for Building Warrant was used to assess energy demand, energy consumption and CO2 emissions and identify trends in LZCGT uptake in the regions studied. This paper provides a number of key insights and recommendations that may foster greater and more impactful use of LZCGTs in Scotland.

Developing renewable energy sector and upgrading energy structure have strategically important role in China's commitments against climate changes. Policymakers and authorities have put forward great efforts to make them happen. But one of the key constraints of China's energy revolution is financial issues, which is inevitably linking to the country's financial development. It is of great importance to understand how much financial development contributes to the renewable energy development in China, and more importantly what aspects of financial development matter. Through a time series analysis based on macro-level data, this paper provides clear evidence that financial development is critically important and contributes an overall of 42.42% to the variation of renewable energy growth. Specifically, we are able to demonstrate that capital market is the most important factor, followed by foreign investment. A simple comparison to the EU and the US cases indicates that the EU path is more relevant and should be studied more carefully by the Chinese policymakers.

In recent years, the Chilean energy sector has gone through a significant transformation. Chile ratified the Paris Agreement in 2017 and committed to develop policies to face climate change and to transition to a more sustainable energy system. Promoting renewable energy and energy efficiency became an essential strategy for Chile to reduce emissions and reach its energy and environmental goals, which are addressed in various governmental studies. Further, Chile became successful in promoting renewable electricity production without feed-in tariffs. The current national goal is for at least 70% of the electricity in Chile to be generated from renewable energy sources by 2050. Additionally, energy efficiency is to be implemented in several sectors. This paper provides a broad overview of the energy sector and review of the Chilean energy policy development and environmental targets with emphasis on recent years. Finally, it also proposes an assessment about existing and required energy policy instruments for Chilean energy sectors by considering the promotion of renewable energy and energy efficiency and analyses the associated potential challenges. This work can provide insights to decision makers to develop long-term sustainable energy plans for Chile to reach its energy and environmental goals.

Renewable energy is a widely used term that describes certain types of energy production. In politics, business and academia, renewable energy is often framed as the key solution to the global climate challenge. We, however, argue that the concept of renewable energy is problematic and should be abandoned in favor of more unambiguous conceptualization. Building on the theoretical literature on framing and based on document analysis, case examples and statistical data, we discuss how renewable energy is framed and has come to be a central energy policy concept and analyze how its use has affected the way energy policy is debated and conducted. We demonstrate the key problems the concept of renewable energy has in terms of sustainability, incoherence, policy impacts, bait-and-switch tactics and generally misleading nature. After analyzing these issues, we discuss alternative conceptualizations and present our model of categorizing energy production according to carbon content and combustion. The paper does not intend to criticize or promote any specific form of energy production, but instead discusses the role of institutional conceptualization in energy policy.