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Transformation of Asia's transport sector has vital implications for climate change, sustainable development and energy indicators. Papers in this special issue show how transport transitions in Asia may play out in different socio-economic and policy scenarios, including a low carbon scenario equivalent to 2 °C stabilization. Accounting for heterogeneity of national transport systems, these papers use diverse methods, frameworks and models to assess the response of the transport system to environmental policy, such as a carbon tax, as well as to a cluster of policies aimed at diverse development indicators. The analysis shows that CO2 mitigation in a transport system is achieved more effectively by aligning mitigation policies with sustainable development policies and measures such as mandates for mode share and choices such as urban design, information and communication systems, and behavioral measures. Authors therefore advocate policies that target multiple dividends vis-a-vis carbon mitigation, energy security and local air quality. Whereas four papers focus on emissions mitigation policies, one paper examines challenges to adapt fast growing transport infrastructures to future climate change induced risks. Collectively, the papers exemplify a set of policies and measures that can deliver co-benefits, and, also, demonstrate the use of methods, frameworks and models to delineate the optimal mix of such policies and measures.

India has committed large investments to energy infrastructure assets-power plants, refineries, energy ports, pipelines, roads, railways, etc. The coastal infrastructure being developed to meet the rising energy imports is vulnerable to climate extremes. This paper provides an overview of climate risks to energy infrastructures in India and details two case studies – a crude oil importing port and a western coast railway transporting coal. The climate vulnerability of the port has been mapped using an index while that of the railway has been done through a damage function for RCP 4.5.0 and 8.5 scenarios. Our analysis shows that risk management through adaptation is likely to be very expensive. The system risks can be even greater and might adversely affect energy security and access objectives. Aligning sustainable development and climate adaptation measures can deliver substantial co-benefits. The key policy recommendations include: i) mandatory vulnerability assessment to future climate risks for energy infrastructures; ii) project and systemic risks in the vulnerability index; iii) adaptation funds for unmitigated climate risks; iv) continuous monitoring of climatic parameters and implementation of adaptation measures, and iv) sustainability actions along energy infrastructures that enhance climate resilience and simultaneously deliver co-benefits to local agents.

Gujarat, a large industrialized state in India, consumed 67 TWh of electricity in 2009–10, besides experiencing a 4.5% demand–supply short-fall. Residential sector accounted for 15% of the total electricity consumption. We conducted load research survey across 21 cities and towns of the state to estimate residential electricity load curves, share of appliances by type and usage patterns for all types of household appliances at utility, geographic, appliance, income and end-use levels. The results indicate that a large scope exists for penetration of energy efficient devices in residential sector. Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curves for electricity and CO2 were generated to analyze relative attractiveness of energy efficient appliance options. Results indicate that up to 7.9 TWh of electricity can be saved per year with 6.7 Mt-CO2 emissions mitigation at negative or very low CO2 prices of US$ 10/t-CO2. Despite such options existing, their penetration is not realized due to myriad barriers such as financial, institutional or awareness and therefore cannot be taken as baseline options for CO2 emission mitigation regimes.

With increasing population, income, and urbanization, meeting the energy service demands for the building sector will be a huge challenge for Indian energy policy. Although there is broad consensus that the Indian building sector will grow and evolve over the coming century, there is little understanding of the potential nature of this evolution over the longer term. The present study uses a technologically detailed, service based building energy model nested in the long term, global, integrated assessment framework, GCAM, to produce scenarios of the evolution of the Indian buildings sector up through the end of the century. The results support the idea that as India evolves toward developed country per-capita income levels, its building sector will largely evolve to resemble those of the currently developed countries (heavy reliance on electricity both for increasing cooling loads and a range of emerging appliance and other plug loads), albeit with unique characteristics based on its climate conditions (cooling dominating heating and even more so with climate change), on fuel preferences that may linger from the present (for example, a preference for gas for cooking), and vestiges of its development path (including remnants of rural poor that use substantial quantities of traditional biomass).

Electricity production causes unintended impacts. Their exclusion by the market leads to suboptimal resource allocations. Monetizing and internalizing of external costs, though challenging and debatable, leads to a better allocation of economic resources and welfare. In this paper, a life-cycle analysis (LCA) on the production of electricity from conventional coal based electricity generation system has been performed in order to examine the environmental impacts of coal based electricity generating systems in the twin-city of Ahmedabad and Gandhinagar in western India. By using dose–response functions, we make an attempt to estimate the damages to human health, crops, and building materials resulting from the operation of coal power plants and its associated mines. Further, we use geographic information system to account for spatially dependent data. Finally, monetary values have been assigned to estimate the damage to human health, crops and building materials. This study reveals that the health as well as on non-health impacts of air pollution resulting from coal based electricity generation may not be ignored both in absolute as well as economic value terms.

Electricity sector is among the key users of natural gas. The sustained electricity deficit and environment policies have added to an already rising demand for gas. This paper tries to understand gas demand in future from electricity sector. This paper models the future demand for gas in India from the electricity sector under alternative scenarios for the period 2005–2025, using bottom-up ANSWER MARKAL model. The scenarios are differentiated by alternate economic growth projections and policies related to coal reforms, infrastructure choices and local environment. The results across scenarios show that gas competes with coal as a base-load option if price difference is below US $ 4 per MBtu. At higher price difference gas penetrates only the peak power market. Gas demand is lower in the high economic growth scenario, since electricity sector is more flexible in substitution of primary energy. Gas demand reduces also in cases when coal supply curve shifts rightwards such as under coal reforms and coal-by-wire scenarios. Local environmental (SO2 emissions) control promotes end of pipe solutions flue gas de-sulfurisation (FGD) initially, though in the longer term mitigation happens by fuel substitution (coal by gas) and introduction of clean coal technologies integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC).

The study examines the dynamics of carbon emissions baselines of electricity generation in Indian states and Chinese provinces in the backdrop of ongoing electricity sector reforms in these countries. Two Indian states—Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh, and three Chinese provinces–Guangdong, Liaoning and Hubei have been chosen for detailed analysis to bring out regional variations that are not captured in aggregate country studies. The study finds that fuel mix is the main driver behind the trends exhibited by the carbon baselines in these five cases. The cases confirm that opportunities exist in the Indian and Chinese electricity sectors to lower carbon intensity mainly in the substitution of other fuels for coal and, to a lesser extent, adoption of more efficient and advanced coal-fired generation technology. Overall, the findings suggest that the electricity sectors in India and China are becoming friendlier to the global environment. Disaggregated analysis, detailed and careful industry analysis is essential to establishing a power sector carbon emissions baseline as a reference for CDM crediting. However, considering all the difficulties associated with the baseline issue, our case studies demonstrate that there is merit in examining alternate approaches that rely on more aggregated baselines.

Numerous GHG policy studies are reported for developing countries. Most use demand driven bottom-up models. Reported abatement costs vary significantly across countries for identical options. This can cause policy conflicts such as for GEF financing schemes. Top-down macroeconomic studies for developing countries are scant; their model structure assumes dynamics akin to developed market economies. Transitional dynamics of developing countries such as underdeveloped markets and informal activities are inadequately modelled. Policy analysis is thus restricted to market oriented alternatives, while more relevant bifurcation scenarios along alternate development patterns are ignored. Alterations in model structure and policy analysis are proposed to represent the realities of developing nations.

This paper presents a macro-level energy model and its application to energy planning for three states in India — namely Gujarat, Kerala and Rajasthan. In conjunction with energy modelling at the national level, the Advisory Board on Energy of the government of India, envisages regional energy planning to capture regional specificities in the energy demand-supply structure. The methodology is presented for constructing a reference energy system, expanded input-output table with disaggregated energy sectors and a linear programming model. The scenario analysis approach is adopted and an analysis and findings are presented for future years up to 2000.