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7. Post-processing of Solar Irradiance Forecasts from WRF Model at Reunion Island

Author

Maimouna Diagne, John Boland, Philippe Lauret, Mathieu David, Nicolas Schmutz, Physique et Ingénierie Mathématique pour l'Énergie, l'environnemeNt et le bâtimenT (PIMENT), Université de La Réunion (UR), Diagne, M, David, M, Boland, John William, Schmutz, Nicolas, Lauret, Philippe, University of South Australia [Adelaide], ReuniWatt, Diagne, Maïmouna, David, Mathieu, Boland, John, Lauret, Phillippe, and 2013 ISES Solar World Congess Cancun, Mexico 3-7 November 2013

Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Meteorology, 020209 energy, media_common.quotation_subject, WRF, Solar zenith angle, 02 engineering and technology, Solar irradiance, Post processing, 01 natural sciences, Model Output Statistics, Energy(all), 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, General Materials Science, NWP, post processing, Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Clear Sky Index, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Remote sensing, media_common, solar zenith angle, [PHYS]Physics [physics], Horizontal resolution, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, business.industry, solar irradiance, Kalman filter, Solar energy, solar irradiance forecasting, Solar irradiance forecasting, Model output statistics, clear sky index, Solar Zenith Angle, 13. Climate action, Sky, Weather Research and Forecasting Model, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Environmental science, Astrophysics::Earth and Planetary Astrophysics, business, Kalman filtering
Abstract

An efficient use of solar energy production requires reliable forecast information on surface solar irradiance. This article aims at providing a Model Output Statistics (MOS) method of improving solar irradiance forecasts from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The WRF model was used to produce one year of day ahead solar irradiance forecasts covering Reunion Island with an horizontal resolution of 3 km. These forecasts are refined with a Kalman filter using hourly high quality ground measurements. Determination of the relevant data inputs for the Kalman filter method is realized with a bias error analysis. The solar zenith angle and the clear sky index, among others, are used for this analysis. Accuracy of the method is evaluated with a comprehensive testing procedure using different error metrics. The Kalman filtering appears to be a viable method in order to improve the solar irradiance forecasting. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

Published
2014
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