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In 2015 China submitted its “Intended Nationally Determined Contribution” (INDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in preparation for the Conference of Parties 21. China’s INDC called for several low carbon actions toward 2030, and one of the important actions by 2030 in the China’s INDC is to lower carbon dioxide (CO2) emission per unit of GDP by 60% to 65% from the 2005 level. In this study, we concentrate in service sector and estimates CO2 emission from six sub-sectors: office building, retail and store, hotel and restaurant, education, health care and others. Considering the gap of tertiary industry development and climate diversity across regions, we base our study on regional analysis and the study subject includes 31 provincial regions of mainland China. We first use a bottom-up cost optimization model called AIM/Enduse to evaluate the CO2 reduction potential brought about by efficient technologies in China’s service buildings. Then we design mitigation scenarios to examine the achievability of China’s INDC as well as the efforts of service sector in achieving the CO2 reduction target stated in China’s INDC. The results show that the service sector has a certain potential to succeed a no-regrets CO2 reduction target by 2030. For achieving China’s INDC target, all six sub-sectors need implement more efficient technologies. Reduction rates vary across provinces due to climatic variations and different development statuses of tertiary industry.

This study analyzes emissions pathways of the greenhouse gases (GHGs) and evaluates cobenefits and tradeoffs among GHGs, air-pollutions and short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) emissions, while taking mitigation actions for achieving a 2 global temperature change limit above pre-industrial levels, so called the 2 target. This study focuses on the following points; 1) technological mitigation potentials and costs of GHGs, 2) cobenefits in reducing of SLCPs and air pollutants due to the effects of low-carbon measures, 3) tradeoffs of increasing SLCPs and air pollutants due to implementing coal and biomass power plants with CCS, 4) effects of air pollutant control measures in addition to low-carbon measures. Carbon price for achieving the 2 target is expensive, reaching at around 400 US$/tCO 2 in 2050. However, large cobenefits in reducing SLCPs and air pollutants are identified due to energy efficiency improvements on the demand sectors and energy shifting from fossil fuels to non-fossil fuel energies on the supply sector. On the other hand, emissions rebounds such as SO 2 , BC, PM 2.5 are found when implementing more coal and biomass power plants with CCS. Even if emissions rebound are arose, it is technologically possible by promoting additional air pollutant control measures to reduce SO 2 , BC, PM 2.5 , around 80-90% reductions compared to the 2010 level. To explore the 2 target pathways from the viewpoint of balancing climate impacts and health impacts, it is necessary to discuss reduction profiles of air pollutants and SLCPs carefully by the combination of measures on CO 2 and air pollutants.

The residential sector accounts for the second or third share of final energy consumption and CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions in both The Republic of Korea and in China. Energy service demand in the residential sector in these countries is influenced by climate and economic circumstances. However, in previous studies, such regional disparities are often overlooked, hence this study analyzes 6 Korean sub-national and 31 Chinese provincial levels while taking into consideration of reginal disparities. In this study principal socio-economic drivers such like GDP (Gross domestic product) and population are taken from used Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The impact of efficient technologies on future CO2 emissions is evaluated using the AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model)/Enduse, a technology bottom-up optimization model integrated with bottom-up service demand models. Three future scenarios are also designed to conduct future evaluation on CO2 emissions growth and potential mitigation measures to meet the emissions target. From the results, impact of each technology was shown to vary across regions. Heating devices, water-heaters and cooking ranges with higher efficiencies are the most effective efficient technologies for both countries. Achieving a 30% CO2 emissions reduction goal requires the combination of various technologies across various regions due to differences in climate and economic circumstances.

Recently, Low Carbon Society (LCS) principle has emerged as a practicable campaign for both developing and developed countries to deal with the dramatic increment of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere. Various key features of LCS entail reducing energy demand and consumption while avoiding the fossil fuel utilization which is a major contributor to substantial CO 2 emissions. In this study, Thailand's power sector is modeled using Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM/Enduse). The objective of this study is to model the Thai power sector such that the viability of clean generating technologies for Thailand is considered and their mitigating effects are analyzed. The results demonstrate that the fossil fuel based technology would be replaced by clean technologies including, coal-fired power plant with CCS technology and renewable energies in the LCS scenario. The LCS scenario can mitigate CO 2 emissions by 58,098 ktCO 2 in 2050 when compared to BAU scenario.

Thai industry sector is the second highest CO 2 emitting end-use sector and contributes approximately 30% to the national income of Thailand. The total CO 2 emission from end use sectors in 2010 was 119 Mton-CO 2 and approximately 38% constituted industrial sector emissions. With the CO 2 emissions ballooning in the developing world, the pertinence of Low Carbon Scenario (LCS) and their co-benefits has increased. This research quantitatively analyses the CO 2 mitigation in the Thai industrial sector through counter-measures in LCS scenarios. Results show that with an ambitious LCS pathway predicted in LCS1 scenario, a cumulative mitigation of 34% from 2010 to 2050 is possible, whilst approximately 24% is possible from a circumspect approach, as in LCS2 scenario. Both the designed scenarios have positive impacts on energy security, where they increase the diversity of the system and increase the renewable fuel share and reduce the oil share. These scenarios also contribute to the mitigation of local air pollutants as well.