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The arrival of the dual-carbon era indicates that it is imperative to reduce industrial carbon emissions with high carbon emissions. The implementation of carbon emission reduction will inevitably have an impact on industrial development. Three different carbon emission scenarios were established. Based on the average annual carbon emission growth rate of the past decade, it is set as a medium carbon scenario. According to the economic development stage and actual social development situation of each region, the corresponding annual average carbon emission growth rate is increased and decreased to set up high carbon and low carbon scenarios. The adjacent accumulation gray multivariate model for industries is established based on different scenarios. The results indicate that the carbon emission scenarios most suitable for industrial development in various regions are different. Heavy industrial provinces and cities such as Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei have the highest industrial output value under high carbon scenarios; Provinces and cities with high levels of industrialization, such as Jiangsu, Shanghai, Guangdong and Chongqing have the highest industrial output value under low-carbon scenarios. The industrial output value of Hebei is expected to grow the fastest under the high carbon scenario, reaching 2.15 trillion yuan by 2030. The industrial output value of Guangdong achieves the greatest improvement under low-carbon scenario. It is expected that the industrial output value of which will reach 6.86 trillion yuan by 2030, ranking first in the country. Therefore, the setting of carbon emission scenarios needs to be tailored to local conditions, increase technological innovation efforts, and further promote industrial development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, improving semi-urbanization has emerged as a promising approach for reducing pollutant emissions. However, the environmental impacts of semi-urbanization are under-researched in the extant literature. To this end, this paper explores how semi-urbanization affects the collective reduction of carbon and pollutant emissions. Also, to account for potential spatial spillover effects, the internal impact mechanisms through which semi-urbanization affects carbon and pollutant emissions are discussed theoretically. The main results indicate that: (1) Semi-urbanization contributes to reducing carbon and pollutant emissions of the province along with its nearby areas. Specifically, every 1% rise in semi-urbanization of the province leads to a decrease in C O 2 emissions by around 0.93% and by around 7.04% of nearby areas; every 1% rise in semi-urbanization of the province decrease SW emissions by about 1.88% and by about 7.71% of nearby areas. (2) The relationship of semi-urbanization with carbon and pollutant emissions shows a significant U-shaped pattern. (3) Semi-urbanization, energy consumption, human capital, industrial structure, and energy efficiency exert significant and varying spatial effects on carbon and pollutant emissions across regions. This investigation suggests important policy recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]