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The UK government's plans to decarbonise residential heating will mean major changes to the energy system whatever the specific technology pathway chosen, driving a range of impacts on users and suppliers. We use an energy system model (UK TIMES) to identify the potential energy system impacts of alternative pathways to low or zero carbon heating. We find that the speed of transitioning can affect the network investment requirements, the overall energy use and emissions generated, while the primary heating fuel shift will determine which sectors and networks require most investment. Crucially, we identify that retail price differences between heating fuels in the UK, particularly gas and electricity, could erode or eliminate bill savings from switching to more efficient heating systems.

Energy scenarios should ideally account for societal feasibility and hence they could be informed by surveys on citizens’ preferences. This study surveyed consensus among citizens of France (N = 202), Germany (N = 199), and Poland (N = 200) on their national and EU electricity supply for 2035, considering different demographics, political orientations, and attitudes towards the transition and its governance. Results showed a broad consensus among surveyed citizens who positively viewed hydro, rooftop and open field solar, onshore and offshore wind power, biomass, and electricity savings, and who negatively viewed Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and net electricity imports. Citizens on average preferred diversified national and EU scenarios with rapid decarbonization and denuclearization, limited imports from neighboring countries, and small shares of CCS. Such scenarios should be now evaluated by modelers.

Electrifying transport to meet local pollution and overall net zero carbon ambitions is now a key UK policy focus, but this will have important impacts on the energy system, the economy, and the environment. Understanding the changes that the electrification of transport will bring is crucial for developing sustainable policies for net zero goals and a just transition. A literature is emerging to analyse the impact of a large-scale penetration of electric vehicles (EVs), but generally limiting focus to the implications for the electricity network. In this paper, we aim to provide insight on the wider energy system impacts of the expected EV rollout in the UK, in terms of fuel changes, energy costs, CO2 emission reduction and network investments; and how different EV charging strategies increase or mitigate the impacts of the expected large-scale penetration of EVs. Results show that non-smart and/or decentralised charging will require considerably larger investments on the network to accommodate new EV demand. Network reinforcement costs are passed to the consumer via increased electricity prices and, albeit reduced, emissions shift from the transport to the power sector. These results show the importance of considering the whole energy system and the wider economy, to avoid carbon leakage and to maximise the effectiveness of policies.

The role of different technologies in a future low carbon energy system is determined by numerous factors, many of which are highly uncertain. Their deployment may be a function of dependency on other technologies, or competition, or wider system effects. In this paper, using a UK example, we explore patterns of interdependency between technologies using a hierarchical clustering approach across multiple scenarios. We find that technologies compete in some instances, often on costs, cluster because they co-depend on each other, or emerge under all conditions, as robust options. Crucially, the broader scenario framing around carbon capture and storage (CCS) availability and climate policy stringency strongly influences these interdependencies. • Hierarchical clustering is applied to determine low carbon technology interdependency. • Interdependency concerns how deployment of one technology impacts another. • Technologies are identified that cluster, and which compete with other clusters. • Insights on why clusters emerge, including broader scenario framing such as policy ambition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Power system operational uncertainties of load fluctuation, and unplanned outage of generating units, or lines are normally handled by reserve generation or transmission capacity. The output of conventional generators is quite controllable, and load variation is predictable within a certain confidence limit. On the other hand, output of variable renewable generators is random and uncontrollable. Large-scale integration of these resources introduces additional uncertainty to an existing system. This drastic change in generation paradigm underscores the need for additional flexible capacity to maintain reliable system operation. Conventional long-term planning studies tend to overestimate system's ability to integrate renewable energy and underestimate flexibility requirement due to inherent modeling limitations. Mathematical models that are used in these planning exercises adopt simplified spatial and temporal resolution and often neglect real system operation. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop new planning strategies to reflect short-term renewable energy resource intermittency in long-term decision making. In this article, the implication of RE intermittency in system operation and also their impact on long-term planning is discussed. Recent planning approaches from literature which aim to address these issues, have been highlighted. A critical discussion regarding their usefulness is also presented. Highlights • Consideration of short-term renewable energy resource variation is crucial for long-term system portfolio planning. • Long-term system models have limited ability to quantify optimum flexible capacity to support large scale system variation. • Methodological enhancement in planning paradigm can be undertaken endogenously or by hybrid methods using separate models. • Hybrid modeling approach utilizes best features of individual models. • Selection of suitable approach varies with system's nature, data availability, computational requirement, and manpower. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The UK government's plans to decarbonise residential heating will mean major changes to the energy system whatever the specific technology pathway chosen, driving a range of impacts on users and suppliers. We use an energy system model (UK TIMES) to identify the potential energy system impacts of alternative pathways to low or zero carbon heating. We find that the speed of transitioning can affect the network investment requirements, the overall energy use and emissions generated, while the primary heating fuel shift will determine which sectors and networks require most investment. Crucially, we identify that retail price differences between heating fuels in the UK, particularly gas and electricity, could erode or eliminate bill savings from switching to more efficient heating systems. • We provide insight on the energy system impacts of the low carbon heat transition in the UK. • We analyse impacts in terms of fuel use, energy costs, CO2 emissions and network investments. • Higher efficiency from heat pumps could reduce residential energy use by 40% by 2050. • Gas and electricity retail price differences could erode cost savings from efficiency gains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy scenarios should ideally account for societal feasibility and hence they could be informed by surveys on citizens' preferences. This study surveyed consensus among citizens of France (N = 202), Germany (N = 199), and Poland (N = 200) on their national and EU electricity supply for 2035, considering different demographics, political orientations, and attitudes towards the transition and its governance. Results showed a broad consensus among surveyed citizens who positively viewed hydro, rooftop and open field solar, onshore and offshore wind power, biomass, and electricity savings, and who negatively viewed Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and net electricity imports. Citizens on average preferred diversified national and EU scenarios with rapid decarbonization and denuclearization, limited imports from neighboring countries, and small shares of CCS. Such scenarios should be now evaluated by modelers. • Systematic evaluation of citizens' consensus on future EU electricity supply. • Positive views on hydropower, solar and wind power, biomass, and electricity savings. • Negative views on CCS and net electricity imports. • Citizens prefer faster decarbonization and denuclearization than current policy targets. • Modelers should evaluate such scenarios as a way of incorporating feasibility considerations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electrifying transport to meet local pollution and overall net zero carbon ambitions is now a key UK policy focus, but this will have important impacts on the energy system, the economy, and the environment. Understanding the changes that the electrification of transport will bring is crucial for developing sustainable policies for net zero goals and a just transition. A literature is emerging to analyse the impact of a large-scale penetration of electric vehicles (EVs), but generally limiting focus to the implications for the electricity network. In this paper, we aim to provide insight on the wider energy system impacts of the expected EV rollout in the UK, in terms of fuel changes, energy costs, CO 2 emission reduction and network investments; and how different EV charging strategies increase or mitigate the impacts of the expected large-scale penetration of EVs. Results show that non-smart and/or decentralised charging will require considerably larger investments on the network to accommodate new EV demand. Network reinforcement costs are passed to the consumer via increased electricity prices and, albeit reduced, emissions shift from the transport to the power sector. These results show the importance of considering the whole energy system and the wider economy, to avoid carbon leakage and to maximise the effectiveness of policies. • We provide insight on the energy system impacts of the expected EV rollout in the UK. • Available literature generally only focuses on implications for the electricity network. • We analyse impacts in terms of fuel use, energy costs, CO2 emissions and network investments. • We analyse how different EV charging strategies increase or mitigate these impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]