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In this paper, a dynamic model for online time series prediction is proposed, namely kernel general loss algorithm based on evolving participatory learning (EPL-KGLA). The algorithm can develop its structure and parameters autonomously in response to complex environments, capturing the dynamic changes of time series and achieving accurate prediction. Specifically, EPL based on evolving fuzzy systems is employed in recursive clustering to fully utilize useful information in data streams and generate/prune structures to ensure compactness and reduce computational burden. Then, the general loss function is combined with online kernel learning to propose KGLA for updating consequent parameters in real-time, capturing the dynamic features of data streams and avoiding the negative effects of large anomalies or complex noise on model performance, thereby improving prediction accuracy. Finally, simulation experiments on a benchmark dataset and two real-world datasets are verified the robustness of EPL-KGLA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the boom of big data, the Internet contains more and more personal behavior information, but it is difficult to extract effectively. A model involving multivariate processing capability must be constructed to deal with these time series with complex characteristics. In this paper, a novel hybrid model embedding Baidu Search Index is therefore proposed to implement multi-step ahead subway passenger flow forecasting. Firstly, we collect data from informative Baidu Search Index, reduce dimensionality, and screen out the powerful predictors by statistical analysis. Secondly, we extract matching common modes at similar time scales between the subway passenger flow and screened Baidu Search Index via multivariate mode decomposition being optimized by multi-objective algorithm. Furthermore, to eliminate pseudo statistical causality, we select the optimal combination of modal components between subway passenger flow and its corresponding Baidu Search Index at each time scale by an innovative multi–modal analysis strategy. Thirdly, we reconstruct the forecasting values of each selected optimal combination as the final results. The empirical results of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou show that the proposed model can significantly outperform six benchmark models in both the level and directional accuracy. So introducing Baidu Search Index creates a sound opportunity to enhance the subway passenger flow forecasting ability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In practical applications, solving multimodal multiobjective optimization problems (MMOPs), which have multiple Pareto optimal sets (PSs) in the decision space mapping to the same Pareto front (PF) in the objective space, has great significance for decision makers. The issue of how to maintain diversity in both decision space and objective space remains a key problem for existing multimodal multiobjective evolutionary algorithms. To address this issue, a novel grey prediction evolution algorithm for multimodal multiobjective optimization, termed MMGPE, is proposed in this paper. This is the first time that the grey prediction evolution algorithm (GPE), which is a recently proposed competitive optimization algorithm with strong exploration capability, is improved for MMOPs. These improvements are conducted in the following four aspects: (1) an initialization operator based on particle swarm optimization, (2) an adaptive parameter setting strategy depending on the domain of decision variables of MMOPs, (3) an accelerating convergence mechanism inspired by the niche principle, and (4) an environmental selection operator based on a nondominated sorting mechanism and a special crowding distance approach. The performance of MMGPE is compared with two state-of-the-art multiobjective evolutionary algorithms and four multimodal multiobjective evolutionary algorithms on 11 multimodal multiobjective test functions. MMGPE is also applied to solve a practical problem. The results show the MMGPE's effectiveness and superiority in achieving the goal of finding multiple PSs while obtaining a well-distributed PF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to the characteristics of financial time series, such as being non-linear, non-stationary and noisy, with uncertain and hidden relationships, it is difficult to capture its non-stationary state and to accurately describe its moving tendency. This is also a consequence of using a single approach to artificial intelligence, and other techniques that have been conventionally used. Therefore, those participating in financial markets, along with researchers, have paid a great deal of attention to tackling this problem. Hence, several approaches have been developed to alleviate the influence of inherent characteristics. However, the noise characteristic can refer to the unavailability of information, which affects how financial markets behave, as well as captured prices in both the past and the future. Therefore, the prediction of stock prices and detecting their noise is considered a very challenging financial topic. This paper adopts a novel three-step hybrid intelligent prediction model that combines a collection of intelligent modelling techniques and a feature extraction algorithm. At first, ensemble empirical mode decomposition is applied to the original data, as to facilitate model fitting to them. Then neural network and support vector regression is proposed individually for modelling the extracted features. Finally, a weighted ensemble average using a genetic algorithm to optimise and determine the weight is proposed for establishing a unified prediction. Experimental results are presented which illustrate the excellent performance of the proposed approach, and that is significantly outperforming the existing models, in terms of error criteria such as MSE, RMSE and MAE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurately forecasting energy demand can better predict future changes in energy demand. This study is aimed to develop more accurate clean energy prediction model from two perspectives of the modeling mechanisms and improvements on the model structure. For this purpose, a novel Riccati–Bernoulli differential equation is established through social practice theory, supply–demand relationship, and the preference of consumption in the energy economy. Considering the limited information in observation data, this differential equation is then transformed into a grey Riccati–Bernoulli model (GRBM(1,1)) according to the differential information principle. With the response function solved on the basis of polynomial equation theory and the power exponent optimized combining the modified flower pollination algorithm, the main process of GRBM(1,1) can be summarized. The four validation examples are provided for confirming the effectiveness and reliability of the new model by comparing with other existing models. Finally, the proposed model is employed to estimate and forecast the clean energy consumption in China and India. The results show that the proposed model demonstrates better estimation in all cases and efficiency in short-term clean energy consumption forecasting. Therefore, by using this optimum model, China's preference coefficient in total energy consumption is 0.7103, lower than that of India (0.8799), and China's preference coefficient in clean energy consumption is 0.9665, higher than that of Indian (0.7155), which means China has less interest to increase total energy consumption but more interest in popularizing the clean energy. • This paper proposed a novel grey Riccati–Bernoulli model for energy consumption prediction. • A specific solution algorithm for this Riccati–Bernoulli equation is discussed in this research. • We compared the proposed novel grey model with other 12 exiting prediction models. • The novel model also reveals China's effort in popularizing the use of clean energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the rapid development of information theoretic learning, the maximum correntropy criterion (MCC) has been widely used in time series prediction area. Especially, the kernel recursive least squares (KRLS) based on MCC is studied recently due to its online recursive form and the ability to resist noise and be robust in non-Gaussian environments. However, it is not always an optimal choice that using the correntropy, which is calculated by default Gaussian kernel function, to describe the local similarity between variables. Besides, the computational burden of MCC based KRLS will raise as data size increases, thus causing difficulties in accommodating time-varying environments. Therefore, this paper proposes a quantized generalized MCC (QGMCC) to solve the above problem. Specifically, a generalized MCC (GMCC) is utilized to enhance the accuracy and flexibility in calculating the correntropy. In order to solve the problem of computational complexity, QGMCC quantizes the input space and upper bounds the network size by vector quantization (VQ) method. Furthermore, QGMCC is applied to KRLS and forming a computationally efficient and precisely predictive algorithm. After that, the improved algorithm named quantized kernel recursive generalized maximum correntropy (QKRGMC) is set up and the derivation process is also given. Experimental results of one benchmark dataset and two real-world datasets are present to verify the effectiveness of the online prediction algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]