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Mortality is one of the most important epidemiological measures and a key indicator of the effectiveness of potential treatments or interventions. In this paper, a permutation test method of variance analysis is proposed to test the null hypothesis that the real-time fatality rates of multiple groups were equal during the epidemic period. In light of large-scale simulation studies, the proposed test method can accurately identify the differences between different groups and display satisfactory performance. We apply the proposed method to the real dataset of the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China (excluding Hubei), Hubei Province (excluding Wuhan), and Wuhan from 31 January 2020 to 30 March 2020. By comparing the differences in the disease severity for differential cities, we show that the severity of the early disease of COVID-19 may be related to the effectiveness of interventions and the improvement in medical resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the close link between economics and health in the context of emergency management. A widespread vaccination campaign is considered the main tool to contain the economic consequences. This paper will focus, at the level of wealth distribution modeling, on the economic improvements induced by the vaccination campaign in terms of its effectiveness rate. The economic trend during the pandemic is evaluated, resorting to a mathematical model joining a classical compartmental model including vaccinated individuals with a kinetic model of wealth distribution based on binary wealth exchanges. The interplay between wealth exchanges and the progress of the infectious disease is realized by assuming, on the one hand, that individuals in different compartments act differently in the economic process and, on the other hand, that the epidemic affects risk in economic transactions. Using the mathematical tools of kinetic theory, it is possible to identify the equilibrium states of the system and the formation of inequalities due to the pandemic in the wealth distribution of the population. Numerical experiments highlight the importance of the vaccination campaign and its positive effects in reducing economic inequalities in the multi-agent society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Results from an explorative study revealing spatio-temporal patterns of the SARS-CoV-2/ COVID-19 epidemic in Germany are presented. We dispense with contestable model assumptions and show the intrinsic spatio-temporal patterns of the epidemic dynamics. The analysis is based on COVID-19 incidence data, which are age-stratified and spatially resolved at the county level, provided by the Federal Government's Public Health Institute of Germany (RKI) for public use. Although the 400 county-related incidence time series shows enormous heterogeneity, both with respect to temporal features as well as spatial distributions, the counties' incidence curves organise into well-distinguished clusters that coincide with East and West Germany. The analysis is based on dimensionality reduction, multidimensional scaling, network analysis, and diversity measures. Dynamical changes are captured by means of difference-in-difference methods, which are related to fold changes of the effective reproduction numbers. The age-related dynamical patterns suggest a considerably stronger impact of children, adolescents and seniors on the epidemic activity than previously expected. Besides these concrete interpretations, the work mainly aims at providing an atlas for spatio-temporal patterns of the epidemic, which serves as a basis to be further explored with the expertise of different disciplines, particularly sociology and policy makers. The study should also be understood as a methodological contribution to getting a handle on the unusual complexity of the COVID-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has raised many questions on how to manage an epidemiological and economic crisis around the world. Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, scientists and policy makers have been asking how effective lockdowns are in preventing and controlling the spread of the virus. In the absence of vaccines, the regulators lacked any plausible alternatives. Nevertheless, after the introduction of vaccinations, to what extent the conclusions of these analyses are still valid should be considered. In this paper, we present a study on the effect of vaccinations within the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with an agent-based epidemic component. Thus, we validated the results regarding the need to use lockdowns as an efficient tool for preventing and controlling epidemics that were obtained in November 2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modelling the epidemic's spread on multiplex networks, considering complex human behaviours, has recently gained the attention of many scientists. In this work, we study the interplay between epidemic spreading and opinion dynamics on multiplex networks. An agent in the epidemic layer could remain in one of five distinct states, resulting in the SIRQD model. The agent's attitude towards respecting the restrictions of the pandemic plays a crucial role in its prevalence. In our model, the agent's point of view could be altered by either conformism mechanism, social pressure, or independent actions. As the underlying opinion model, we leverage the q-voter model. The entire system constitutes a coupled opinion–dynamic model where two distinct processes occur. The question arises of how to properly align these dynamics, i.e., whether they should possess equal or disparate timescales. This paper highlights the impact of different timescales of opinion dynamics on epidemic spreading, focusing on the time and the infection's peak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has raised numerous questions concerning the shape and range of state interventions the goals of which are to reduce the number of infections and deaths. The lockdowns, which have become the most popular response worldwide, are assessed as being an outdated and economically inefficient way to fight the disease. However, in the absence of efficient cures and vaccines, there is a lack of viable alternatives. In this paper we assess the economic consequences of the epidemic prevention and control schemes that were introduced in order to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. The analyses report the results of epidemic simulations that were obtained using the agent-based modelling methods under the different response schemes and their use in order to provide conditional forecasts of the standard economic variables. The forecasts were obtained using the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) with the labour market component. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A global event such as the COVID-19 crisis presents new, often unexpected responses that are fascinating to investigate from both scientific and social standpoints. Despite several documented similarities, the coronavirus pandemic is clearly distinct from the 1918 flu pandemic in terms of our exponentially increased, almost instantaneous ability to access/share information, offering an unprecedented opportunity to visualise rippling effects of global events across space and time. Personal devices provide "big data" on people's movement, the environment and economic trends, while access to the unprecedented flurry in scientific publications and media posts provides a measure of the response of the educated world to the crisis. Most bibliometric (co-authorship, co-citation, or bibliographic coupling) analyses ignore the time dimension, but COVID-19 has made it possible to perform a detailed temporal investigation into the pandemic. Here, we report a comprehensive network analysis based on more than 20,000 published documents on viral epidemics, authored by over 75,000 individuals from 140 nations in the past one year of the crisis. Unlike the 1918 flu pandemic, access to published data over the past two decades enabled a comparison of publishing trends between the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and those of the 2003 SARS epidemic to study changes in thematic foci and societal pressures dictating research over the course of a crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]