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Valued in hundreds of billions of Malaysian ringgit, the Bursa Malaysia Financial Services Index's constituents comprise several of the strongest performing financial constituents in Bursa Malaysia's Main Market. Although these constituents persistently reside mostly within the large market capitalization (cap), the existence of the individual constituent's causal influence or intensity relative to each other's performance during uncertain or even certain times is unknown. Thus, the key purpose of this paper is to identify and analyze the individual constituent's causal intensity, from early 2018 (pre-COVID-19) to the end of the year 2021 (post-COVID-19) using Granger causality and Schreiber transfer entropy. Furthermore, network science is used to measure and visualize the fluctuating causal degree of the source and the effected constituents. The results show that both the Granger causality and Schreiber transfer entropy networks detected patterns of increasing causality from pre- to post-COVID-19 but with differing causal intensities. Unexpectedly, both networks showed that the small- and mid-caps had high causal intensity during and after COVID-19. Using Bursa Malaysia's sub-sector for further analysis, the Insurance sub-sector rapidly increased in causality as the year progressed, making it one of the index's largest sources of causality. Even after removing large amounts of weak causal intensities, Schreiber transfer entropy was still able to detect higher amounts of causal sources from the Insurance sub-sector, whilst Granger causal sources declined rapidly post-COVID-19. The method of using directed temporal networks for the visualization of temporal causal sources is demonstrated to be a powerful approach that can aid in investment decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we analyse the genome sequence of COVID-19 on a information point of view, and we compare that with past and present genomes. We use the powerful tool of joint complexity in order to quantify the similarities measured between the various potential parent genomes. The tool has a computing complexity of several orders of magnitude below the classic Smith–Waterman algorithm and would allow it to be used on a larger scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mortality is one of the most important epidemiological measures and a key indicator of the effectiveness of potential treatments or interventions. In this paper, a permutation test method of variance analysis is proposed to test the null hypothesis that the real-time fatality rates of multiple groups were equal during the epidemic period. In light of large-scale simulation studies, the proposed test method can accurately identify the differences between different groups and display satisfactory performance. We apply the proposed method to the real dataset of the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China (excluding Hubei), Hubei Province (excluding Wuhan), and Wuhan from 31 January 2020 to 30 March 2020. By comparing the differences in the disease severity for differential cities, we show that the severity of the early disease of COVID-19 may be related to the effectiveness of interventions and the improvement in medical resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Global Fear Index (GFI) is a measure of fear/panic based on the number of people infected and deaths due to COVID-19. This paper aims to examine the interconnection or interdependencies between the GFI and a set of global indexes related to the financial and economic activities associated with natural resources, raw materials, agribusiness, energy, metals, and mining, such as: the S&P Global Resource Index, the S&P Global Agribusiness Equity Index, the S&P Global Metals and Mining Index, and the S&P Global 1200 Energy Index. To this end, we first apply several common tests: Wald exponential, Wald mean, Nyblom, and Quandt Likelihood Ratio. Subsequently, we apply Granger causality using a DCC-GARCH model. Data for the global indices are daily from 3 February 2020 to 29 October 2021. The empirical results obtained show that the volatility of the GFI Granger causes the volatility of the other global indices, except for the Global Resource Index. Moreover, by considering heteroskedasticity and idiosyncratic shocks, we show that the GFI can be used to predict the co-movement of the time series of all the global indices. Additionally, we quantify the causal interdependencies between the GFI and each of the S&P global indices using Shannon and Rényi transfer entropy flow, which is comparable to Granger causality, to confirm directionality more robustly The main conclusion of this research is that financial and economic activity related to natural resources, raw materials, agribusiness, energy, metals, and mining were affected by the fear/panic caused by COVID-19 cases and deaths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On 31 December 2019, a cluster of pneumonia cases of unknown etiology was reported in Wuhan (China). The cases were declared to be Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) by the World Health Organization (WHO). COVID-19 has been defined as SARS Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Some countries, e.g., Italy, France, and the United Kingdom (UK), have been subjected to frequent restrictions for preventing the spread of infection, contrary to other ones, e.g., the United States of America (USA) and Sweden. The restrictions afflicted the evolution of trends with several perturbations that destabilized its normal evolution. Globally, R t has been used to estimate time-varying reproduction numbers during epidemics. Methods: This paper presents a solution based on Deep Learning (DL) for the analysis and forecasting of epidemic trends in new positive cases of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19). It combined a neural network (NN) and an R t estimation by adjusting the data produced by the output layer of the NN on the related R t estimation. Results: Tests were performed on datasets related to the following countries: Italy, the USA, France, the UK, and Sweden. Positive case registration was retrieved between 24 February 2020 and 11 January 2022. Tests performed on the Italian dataset showed that our solution reduced the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) by 28.44%, 39.36%, 22.96%, 17.93%, 28.10%, and 24.50% compared to other ones with the same configuration but that were based on the LSTM, GRU, RNN, ARIMA (1,0,3), and ARIMA (7,2,4) models, or an NN without applying the R t as a corrective index. It also reduced MAPE by 17.93%, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) by 34.37%, and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) by 43.76% compared to the same model without the adjustment performed by the R t . Furthermore, it allowed an average MAPE reduction of 5.37%, 63.10%, 17.84%, and 14.91% on the datasets related to the USA, France, the UK, and Sweden, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, understanding the spatial and temporal dynamics of the disease is crucial for effective public health interventions. This study aims to analyze COVID-19 data in Peru using a Bayesian spatio-temporal generalized linear model to elucidate mortality patterns and assess the impact of vaccination efforts. Leveraging data from 194 provinces over 651 days, our analysis reveals heterogeneous spatial and temporal patterns in COVID-19 mortality rates. Higher vaccination coverage is associated with reduced mortality rates, emphasizing the importance of vaccination in mitigating the pandemic's impact. The findings underscore the value of spatio-temporal data analysis in understanding disease dynamics and guiding targeted public health interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid spread of COVID-19 has demonstrated the need for accurate information to contain its diffusion. Technological solutions are a complement that can help citizens to be informed about the risk in their environment. Although measures such as contact traceability have been successful in some countries, their use raises society's resistance. This paper proposes a variation of the consensus processes in directed networks to create a risk map of a determined area. The process shares information with trusted contacts: people we would notify in the case of being infected. When the process converges, each participant would have obtained the risk map for the selected zone. The results are compared with the pilot project's impact testing of the Spanish contact tracing app (RadarCOVID). The paper also depicts the results combining both strategies: contact tracing to detect potential infections and risk maps to avoid movements into conflictive areas. Although some works affirm that contact tracing apps need 60% of users to control the propagation, our results indicate that a 40% could be enough. On the other hand, the elaboration of risk maps could work with only 20% of active installations, but the effect is to delay the propagation instead of reducing the contagion. With both active strategies, this methodology is able to significantly reduce infected people with fewer participants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model is a simple mathematical model of epidemic outbreaks, yet for decades it evaded the efforts of the mathematical community to derive an explicit solution. The present paper reports novel analytical results and numerical algorithms suitable for parametric estimation of the SIR model. Notably, a series solution of the incidence variable of the model is derived. It is proven that the explicit solution of the model requires the introduction of a new transcendental special function, describing the incidence, which is a solution of a non-elementary integral equation. The paper introduces iterative algorithms approximating the incidence variable, which allows for estimation of the model parameters from the numbers of observed cases. The approach is applied to the case study of the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in five European countries: Belgium, Bulgaria, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. Incidence and case fatality data obtained from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) are analysed and the model parameters are estimated and compared for the period Jan-Dec 2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An information outbreak occurs on social media along with the COVID-19 pandemic and leads to an infodemic. Predicting the popularity of online content, known as cascade prediction, allows for not only catching in advance information that deserves attention, but also identifying false information that will widely spread and require quick response to mitigate its negative impact. Among the various information diffusion patterns leveraged in previous works, the spillover effect of the information exposed to users on their decisions to participate in diffusing certain information has not been studied. In this paper, we focus on the diffusion of information related to COVID-19 preventive measures due to its special role in consolidating public efforts to slow down the spread of the virus. Through our collected Twitter dataset, we validate the existence of the spillover effects. Building on this finding, we propose extensions to three cascade prediction methods based on Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). Experiments conducted on our dataset demonstrated that the use of the identified spillover effects significantly improves the state-of-the-art GNN methods in predicting the popularity of not only preventive measure messages, but also other COVID-19 messages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the close link between economics and health in the context of emergency management. A widespread vaccination campaign is considered the main tool to contain the economic consequences. This paper will focus, at the level of wealth distribution modeling, on the economic improvements induced by the vaccination campaign in terms of its effectiveness rate. The economic trend during the pandemic is evaluated, resorting to a mathematical model joining a classical compartmental model including vaccinated individuals with a kinetic model of wealth distribution based on binary wealth exchanges. The interplay between wealth exchanges and the progress of the infectious disease is realized by assuming, on the one hand, that individuals in different compartments act differently in the economic process and, on the other hand, that the epidemic affects risk in economic transactions. Using the mathematical tools of kinetic theory, it is possible to identify the equilibrium states of the system and the formation of inequalities due to the pandemic in the wealth distribution of the population. Numerical experiments highlight the importance of the vaccination campaign and its positive effects in reducing economic inequalities in the multi-agent society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has raised many questions on how to manage an epidemiological and economic crisis around the world. Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, scientists and policy makers have been asking how effective lockdowns are in preventing and controlling the spread of the virus. In the absence of vaccines, the regulators lacked any plausible alternatives. Nevertheless, after the introduction of vaccinations, to what extent the conclusions of these analyses are still valid should be considered. In this paper, we present a study on the effect of vaccinations within the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with an agent-based epidemic component. Thus, we validated the results regarding the need to use lockdowns as an efficient tool for preventing and controlling epidemics that were obtained in November 2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Modelling the epidemic's spread on multiplex networks, considering complex human behaviours, has recently gained the attention of many scientists. In this work, we study the interplay between epidemic spreading and opinion dynamics on multiplex networks. An agent in the epidemic layer could remain in one of five distinct states, resulting in the SIRQD model. The agent's attitude towards respecting the restrictions of the pandemic plays a crucial role in its prevalence. In our model, the agent's point of view could be altered by either conformism mechanism, social pressure, or independent actions. As the underlying opinion model, we leverage the q-voter model. The entire system constitutes a coupled opinion–dynamic model where two distinct processes occur. The question arises of how to properly align these dynamics, i.e., whether they should possess equal or disparate timescales. This paper highlights the impact of different timescales of opinion dynamics on epidemic spreading, focusing on the time and the infection's peak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently, the world is still facing a COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) classified as a highly infectious disease due to its rapid spreading. The shortage of X-ray machines may lead to critical situations and delay the diagnosis results, increasing the number of deaths. Therefore, the exploitation of deep learning (DL) and optimization algorithms can be advantageous in early diagnosis and COVID-19 detection. In this paper, we propose a framework for COVID-19 images classification using hybridization of DL and swarm-based algorithms. The MobileNetV3 is used as a backbone feature extraction to learn and extract relevant image representations as a DL model. As a swarm-based algorithm, the Aquila Optimizer (Aqu) is used as a feature selector to reduce the dimensionality of the image representations and improve the classification accuracy using only the most essential selected features. To validate the proposed framework, two datasets with X-ray and CT COVID-19 images are used. The obtained results from the experiments show a good performance of the proposed framework in terms of classification accuracy and dimensionality reduction during the feature extraction and selection phases. The Aqu feature selection algorithm achieves accuracy better than other methods in terms of performance metrics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Results from an explorative study revealing spatio-temporal patterns of the SARS-CoV-2/ COVID-19 epidemic in Germany are presented. We dispense with contestable model assumptions and show the intrinsic spatio-temporal patterns of the epidemic dynamics. The analysis is based on COVID-19 incidence data, which are age-stratified and spatially resolved at the county level, provided by the Federal Government's Public Health Institute of Germany (RKI) for public use. Although the 400 county-related incidence time series shows enormous heterogeneity, both with respect to temporal features as well as spatial distributions, the counties' incidence curves organise into well-distinguished clusters that coincide with East and West Germany. The analysis is based on dimensionality reduction, multidimensional scaling, network analysis, and diversity measures. Dynamical changes are captured by means of difference-in-difference methods, which are related to fold changes of the effective reproduction numbers. The age-related dynamical patterns suggest a considerably stronger impact of children, adolescents and seniors on the epidemic activity than previously expected. Besides these concrete interpretations, the work mainly aims at providing an atlas for spatio-temporal patterns of the epidemic, which serves as a basis to be further explored with the expertise of different disciplines, particularly sociology and policy makers. The study should also be understood as a methodological contribution to getting a handle on the unusual complexity of the COVID-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a dynamic cascade model to investigate the systemic risk posed by sector-level industries within the U.S. inter-industry network. We then use this model to study the effect of the disruptions presented by Covid-19 on the U.S. economy. We construct a weighted digraph G = (V,E,W) using the industry-by-industry total requirements table for 2018, provided by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). We impose an initial shock that disrupts the production capacity of one or more industries, and we calculate the propagation of production shortages with a modified Cobb–Douglas production function. For the Covid-19 case, we model the initial shock based on the loss of labor between March and April 2020 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The industries within the network are assigned a resilience that determines the ability of an industry to absorb input losses, such that if the rate of input loss exceeds the resilience, the industry fails, and its outputs go to zero. We observed a critical resilience, such that, below this critical value, the network experienced a catastrophic cascade resulting in total network collapse. Lastly, we model the economic recovery from June 2020 through March 2021 using BLS data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider the prediction of future research collaborations as a link prediction problem applied on a scientific knowledge graph. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work on the prediction of future research collaborations that combines structural and textual information of a scientific knowledge graph through a purposeful integration of graph algorithms and natural language processing techniques. Our work: (i) investigates whether the integration of unstructured textual data into a single knowledge graph affects the performance of a link prediction model, (ii) studies the effect of previously proposed graph kernels based approaches on the performance of an ML model, as far as the link prediction problem is concerned, and (iii) proposes a three-phase pipeline that enables the exploitation of structural and textual information, as well as of pre-trained word embeddings. We benchmark the proposed approach against classical link prediction algorithms using accuracy, recall, and precision as our performance metrics. Finally, we empirically test our approach through various feature combinations with respect to the link prediction problem. Our experimentations with the new COVID-19 Open Research Dataset demonstrate a significant improvement of the abovementioned performance metrics in the prediction of future research collaborations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has become one of the threats to the world. Computed tomography (CT) is an informative tool for the diagnosis of COVID-19 patients. Many deep learning approaches on CT images have been proposed and brought promising performance. However, due to the high complexity and non-transparency of deep models, the explanation of the diagnosis process is challenging, making it hard to evaluate whether such approaches are reliable. In this paper, we propose a visual interpretation architecture for the explanation of the deep learning models and apply the architecture in COVID-19 diagnosis. Our architecture designs a comprehensive interpretation about the deep model from different perspectives, including the training trends, diagnostic performance, learned features, feature extractors, the hidden layers, the support regions for diagnostic decision, and etc. With the interpretation architecture, researchers can make a comparison and explanation about the classification performance, gain insight into what the deep model learned from images, and obtain the supports for diagnostic decisions. Our deep model achieves the diagnostic result of 94.75%, 93.22%, 96.69%, 97.27%, and 91.88% in the criteria of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value, which are 8.30%, 4.32%, 13.33%, 10.25%, and 6.19% higher than that of the compared traditional methods. The visualized features in 2-D and 3-D spaces provide the reasons for the superiority of our deep model. Our interpretation architecture would allow researchers to understand more about how and why deep models work, and can be used as interpretation solutions for any deep learning models based on convolutional neural network. It can also help deep learning methods to take a step forward in the clinical COVID-19 diagnosis field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The world has faced a coronavirus outbreak, which, in addition to lung complications, has caused other serious problems, including cardiovascular. There is still no explanation for the mechanisms of coronavirus that trigger dysfunction of the cardiac autonomic nervous system (ANS). We believe that the complex mechanisms that change the status of ANS could only be solved by advanced multidimensional analysis of many variables, obtained both from the original cardiovascular signals and from laboratory analysis and detailed patient history. The aim of this paper is to analyze different measures of entropy as potential dimensions of the multidimensional space of cardiovascular data. The measures were applied to heart rate and systolic blood pressure signals collected from 116 patients with COVID-19 and 77 healthy controls. Methods that indicate a statistically significant difference between patients with different levels of infection and healthy controls will be used for further multivariate research. As a result, it was shown that a statistically significant difference between healthy controls and patients with COVID-19 was shown by sample entropy applied to integrated transformed probability signals, common symbolic dynamics entropy, and copula parameters. Statistical significance between serious and mild patients with COVID-19 can only be achieved by cross-entropies of heart rate signals and systolic pressure. This result contributes to the hypothesis that the severity of COVID-19 disease is associated with ANS disorder and encourages further research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has raised numerous questions concerning the shape and range of state interventions the goals of which are to reduce the number of infections and deaths. The lockdowns, which have become the most popular response worldwide, are assessed as being an outdated and economically inefficient way to fight the disease. However, in the absence of efficient cures and vaccines, there is a lack of viable alternatives. In this paper we assess the economic consequences of the epidemic prevention and control schemes that were introduced in order to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. The analyses report the results of epidemic simulations that were obtained using the agent-based modelling methods under the different response schemes and their use in order to provide conditional forecasts of the standard economic variables. The forecasts were obtained using the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE) with the labour market component. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How to ensure the normal production of industries in an uncertain emergency environment has aroused a lot of concern in society. Selecting the best emergency material suppliers using the multicriteria group decision making (MCGDM) method will ensure the normal production of industries in this environment. However, there are few studies in emergency environments that consider the impact of the decision order of decision makers (DMs) on the decision results. Therefore, in order to fill the research gap, we propose an extended MCGDM method, whose main steps include the following: Firstly, the DMs give their assessment of all alternatives. Secondly, we take the AHP method and entropy weight method to weight the criteria and the DMs. Thirdly, we take the intuitionistic fuzzy hybrid priority weight average (IFHPWA) operator we proposed to aggregate evaluation information and take the TOPSIS method to rank all the alternatives. Finally, the proposed method is applied in a case to prove its practicability and effectiveness. The proposed method considers the influence of the decision order of the DMs on the decision results, which improves the accuracy and efficiency of decision-making results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When we compare the influences of two causes on an outcome, if the conclusion from every group is against that from the conflation, we think there is Simpson's Paradox. The Existing Causal Inference Theory (ECIT) can make the overall conclusion consistent with the grouping conclusion by removing the confounder's influence to eliminate the paradox. The ECIT uses relative risk difference Pd = max(0, (R − 1)/R) (R denotes the risk ratio) as the probability of causation. In contrast, Philosopher Fitelson uses confirmation measure D (posterior probability minus prior probability) to measure the strength of causation. Fitelson concludes that from the perspective of Bayesian confirmation, we should directly accept the overall conclusion without considering the paradox. The author proposed a Bayesian confirmation measure b* similar to Pd before. To overcome the contradiction between the ECIT and Bayesian confirmation, the author uses the semantic information method with the minimum cross-entropy criterion to deduce causal confirmation measure Cc = (R − 1)/max(R, 1). Cc is like Pd but has normalizing property (between −1 and 1) and cause symmetry. It especially fits cases where a cause restrains an outcome, such as the COVID-19 vaccine controlling the infection. Some examples (about kidney stone treatments and COVID-19) reveal that Pd and Cc are more reasonable than D; Cc is more useful than Pd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cryptocurrencies are relatively new and innovative financial assets. They are a topic of interest to investors and academics due to their distinctive features. Whether financial or not, extraordinary events are one of the biggest challenges facing financial markets. The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, considered by some authors a "black swan", is one of these events. In this study, we assess integration and contagion in the cryptocurrency market in the COVID-19 pandemic context, using two entropy-based measures: mutual information and transfer entropy. Both methodologies reveal that cryptocurrencies exhibit mixed levels of integration before and after the onset of the pandemic. Cryptocurrencies displaying higher integration before the event experienced a decline in such link after the world became aware of the first cases of pneumonia in Wuhan city. In what concerns contagion, mutual information provided evidence of its presence solely for the Huobi Token, and the transfer entropy analysis pointed out Tether and Huobi Token as its main source. As both analyses indicate no contagion from the pandemic turmoil to these financial assets, cryptocurrencies may be good investment options in case of real global shocks, such as the one provoked by the COVID-19 outbreak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Finding a vaccine or specific antiviral treatment for a global pandemic of virus diseases (such as the ongoing COVID-19) requires rapid analysis, annotation and evaluation of metagenomic libraries to enable a quick and efficient screening of nucleotide sequences. Traditional sequence alignment methods are not suitable and there is a need for fast alignment-free techniques for sequence analysis. Information theory and data compression algorithms provide a rich set of mathematical and computational tools to capture essential patterns in biological sequences. In this study, we investigate the use of compression-complexity (Effort-to-Compress or ETC and Lempel-Ziv or LZ complexity) based distance measures for analyzing genomic sequences. The proposed distance measure is used to successfully reproduce the phylogenetic trees for a mammalian dataset consisting of eight species clusters, a set of coronaviruses belonging to group I, group II, group III, and SARS-CoV-1 coronaviruses, and a set of coronaviruses causing COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2), and those not causing COVID-19. Having demonstrated the usefulness of these compression complexity measures, we employ them for the automatic classification of COVID-19-causing genome sequences using machine learning techniques. Two flavors of SVM (linear and quadratic) along with linear discriminant and fine K Nearest Neighbors classifer are used for classification. Using a data set comprising 1001 coronavirus sequences (causing COVID-19 and those not causing COVID-19), a classification accuracy of 98% is achieved with a sensitivity of 95% and a specificity of 99.8%. This work could be extended further to enable medical practitioners to automatically identify and characterize coronavirus strains and their rapidly growing mutants in a fast and efficient fashion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present large-scale emerging industry evolves into a form of an open system with blurring boundaries. However, when complex structures with numerous nodes and connections encounter an open system with blurring boundaries, it becomes much more challenging to effectively depict the structure of an emerging industry, which is the precondition for robustness evaluation. Therefore, this study proposes a novel framework based on a data-driven percolation process and complex network theory to depict the network skeleton and thus evaluate the structural robustness of large-scale emerging industries. The empirical data we used are actual firm-level transaction data in the Chinese new energy vehicle industry in 2019, 2020, and 2021. We applied our method to explore the transformation of structural robustness in the Chinese new energy vehicle industry in pre-COVID (2019), under-COVID (2020), and post-COVID (2021) eras. We unveil that the Chinese new energy vehicle industry became more robust against random attacks in the post-COVID era than in pre-COVID. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the correlation between different assets in the cryptocurrency market throughout different phases, specifically bearish and bullish periods. Taking advantage of a fine-grained dataset comprising 34 historical cryptocurrency price time series collected tick-by-tick on the HitBTC exchange, we observe the changes in interactions among these cryptocurrencies from two aspects: time and level of granularity. Moreover, the investment decisions of investors during turbulent times caused by the COVID-19 pandemic are assessed by looking at the cryptocurrency community structure using various community detection algorithms. We found that finer-grain time series describes clearer the correlations between cryptocurrencies. Notably, a noise and trend removal scheme is applied to the original correlations thanks to the theory of random matrices and the concept of Market Component, which has never been considered in existing studies in quantitative finance. To this end, we recognized that investment decisions of cryptocurrency traders vary between bearish and bullish markets. The results of our work can help scholars, especially investors, better understand the operation of the cryptocurrency market, thereby building up an appropriate investment strategy suitable to the prevailing certain economic situation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study is to assess and compare changes in regularity in the 36 European and the U.S. stock market indices within major turbulence periods. Two periods are investigated: the Global Financial Crisis in 2007–2009 and the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak in 2020–2021. The proposed research hypothesis states that entropy of an equity market index decreases during turbulence periods, which implies that regularity and predictability of a stock market index returns increase in such cases. To capture sequential regularity in daily time series of stock market indices, the Sample Entropy algorithm (SampEn) is used. Changes in the SampEn values before and during the particular turbulence period are estimated. The empirical findings are unambiguous and confirm no reason to reject the research hypothesis. Moreover, additional formal statistical analyses indicate that the SampEn results are similar both for developed and emerging European economies. Furthermore, the rolling-window procedure is utilized to assess the evolution of SampEn over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A novel yet simple extension of the symmetric logistic distribution is proposed by introducing a skewness parameter. It is shown how the three parameters of the ensuing skew logistic distribution may be estimated using maximum likelihood. The skew logistic distribution is then extended to the skew bi-logistic distribution to allow the modelling of multiple waves in epidemic time series data. The proposed skew-logistic model is validated on COVID-19 data from the UK, and is evaluated for goodness-of-fit against the logistic and normal distributions using the recently formulated empirical survival Jensen–Shannon divergence ( E S J S ) and the Kolmogorov–Smirnov two-sample test statistic ( K S 2 ). We employ 95% bootstrap confidence intervals to assess the improvement in goodness-of-fit of the skew logistic distribution over the other distributions. The obtained confidence intervals for the E S J S are narrower than those for the K S 2 on using this dataset, implying that the E S J S is more powerful than the K S 2 . [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The compression method to assess similarity, in the sense of having a small normalized compression distance (NCD), was developed based on algorithmic information theory to quantify the similarity in files ranging from words and languages to genomes and music pieces. It has been validated on objects from different domains always using essentially the same software. We analyze the whole-genome phylogeny and taxonomy of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which is responsible for causing the COVID-19 disease, using the alignment-free compression method to assess similarity. We compare the SARS-CoV-2 virus with a database of over 6500 viruses. The results suggest that the SARS-CoV-2 virus is closest in that database to the RaTG13 virus and rather close to the bat SARS-like coronaviruses bat-SL-CoVZXC21 and bat-SL-CoVZC45. Over 6500 viruses are identified (given by their registration code) with larger NCDs. The NCDs are compared with the NCDs between the mtDNA of familiar species. We address the question of whether pangolins are involved in the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The compression method is simpler and possibly faster than any other whole-genome method, which makes it the ideal tool to explore phylogeny. Here, we use it for the complex case of determining this similarity between the COVID-19 virus, SARS-CoV-2 and many other viruses. The resulting phylogeny and taxonomy closely resemble earlier results from by alignment-based methods and a machine-learning method, providing the most compelling evidence to date for the compression method, showing that one can achieve equivalent results both simply and quickly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the trade of products between countries. With this aim, using the United Nations Comtrade database, we perform a Google matrix analysis of the multiproduct World Trade Network (WTN) for the years 2018–2020, comprising the emergence of the COVID-19 as a global pandemic. The applied algorithms—PageRank, CheiRank and the reduced Google matrix—take into account the multiplicity of the WTN links, providing new insights into international trade compared to the usual import–export analysis. These complex networks analysis algorithms establish new rankings and trade balances of countries and products considering all countries on equal grounds, independent of their wealth, and every product on the basis of its relative exchanged volumes. In comparison with the pre-COVID-19 period, significant changes in these metrics occurred for the year 2020, highlighting a major rewiring of the international trade flows induced by the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. We define a new PageRank–CheiRank product trade balance, either export or import-oriented, which is significantly perturbed by the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A global event such as the COVID-19 crisis presents new, often unexpected responses that are fascinating to investigate from both scientific and social standpoints. Despite several documented similarities, the coronavirus pandemic is clearly distinct from the 1918 flu pandemic in terms of our exponentially increased, almost instantaneous ability to access/share information, offering an unprecedented opportunity to visualise rippling effects of global events across space and time. Personal devices provide "big data" on people's movement, the environment and economic trends, while access to the unprecedented flurry in scientific publications and media posts provides a measure of the response of the educated world to the crisis. Most bibliometric (co-authorship, co-citation, or bibliographic coupling) analyses ignore the time dimension, but COVID-19 has made it possible to perform a detailed temporal investigation into the pandemic. Here, we report a comprehensive network analysis based on more than 20,000 published documents on viral epidemics, authored by over 75,000 individuals from 140 nations in the past one year of the crisis. Unlike the 1918 flu pandemic, access to published data over the past two decades enabled a comparison of publishing trends between the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and those of the 2003 SARS epidemic to study changes in thematic foci and societal pressures dictating research over the course of a crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this research is to compare the risk transfer structure in Central and Eastern European and Western European stock markets during the 2007–2009 financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Similar to the global financial crisis (GFC), the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) created a significant level of risk, causing investors to suffer losses in a very short period of time. We use a variety of methods, including nonstandard like mutual information and transfer entropy. The results that we obtained indicate that there are significant nonlinear correlations in the capital markets that can be practically applied for investment portfolio optimization. From an investor perspective, our findings suggest that in the wake of global crisis and pandemic outbreak, the benefits of diversification will be limited by the transfer of funds between developed and developing country markets. Our study provides an insight into the risk transfer theory in developed and emerging markets as well as a cutting-edge methodology designed for analyzing the connectedness of markets. We contribute to the studies which have examined the different stock markets' response to different turbulences. The study confirms that specific market effects can still play a significant role because of the interconnection of different sectors of the global economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With population explosion and globalization, the spread of infectious diseases has been a major concern. In 2019, a newly identified type of Coronavirus caused an outbreak of respiratory illness, popularly known as COVID-19, and became a pandemic. Although enormous efforts have been made to understand the spread of COVID-19, our knowledge of the COVID-19 dynamics still remains limited. The present study employs the concepts of chaos theory to examine the temporal dynamic complexity of COVID-19 around the world. The false nearest neighbor (FNN) method is applied to determine the dimensionality and, hence, the complexity of the COVID-19 dynamics. The methodology involves: (1) reconstruction of a single-variable COVID-19 time series in a multi-dimensional phase space to represent the underlying dynamics; and (2) identification of "false" neighbors in the reconstructed phase space and estimation of the dimension of the COVID-19 series. For implementation, COVID-19 data from 40 countries/regions around the world are studied. Two types of COVID-19 data are analyzed: (1) daily COVID-19 cases; and (2) daily COVID-19 deaths. The results for the 40 countries/regions indicate that: (1) the dynamics of COVID-19 cases exhibit low- to medium-level complexity, with dimensionality in the range 3 to 7; and (2) the dynamics of COVID-19 deaths exhibit complexity anywhere from low to high, with dimensionality ranging from 3 to 13. The results also suggest that the complexity of the dynamics of COVID-19 deaths is greater than or at least equal to that of the dynamics of COVID-19 cases for most (three-fourths) of the countries/regions. These results have important implications for modeling and predicting the spread of COVID-19 (and other infectious diseases), especially in the identification of the appropriate complexity of models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economy is a system of complex interactions. The COVID-19 pandemic strongly influenced economies, particularly through introduced restrictions, which formed a completely new economic environment. The present work focuses on the changes induced by the COVID-19 epidemic on the correlation network structure. The analysis is performed on a representative set of USA companies—the S&P500 components. Four different network structures are constructed (strong, weak, typically, and significantly connected networks), and the rank entropy, cycle entropy, averaged clustering coefficient, and transitivity evolution are established and discussed. Based on the mentioned structural parameters, four different stages have been distinguished during the COVID-19-induced crisis. The proposed network properties and their applicability to a crisis-distinguishing problem are discussed. Moreover, the optimal time window problem is analysed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main research question concerned the identification of changes in the COVID-19 epidemiological situation using fuzzy clustering methods. This research used cross-sectional time series data obtained from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. The identification of country types in terms of epidemiological risk was carried out using the fuzzy c-means clustering method. We also used the entropy index to measure the degree of fuzziness in the classification and evaluate the uncertainty of epidemiological states. The proposed approach allowed us to identify countries' epidemic states. Moreover, it also made it possible to determine the time of transition from one state to another, as well as to observe fluctuations during changes of state. Three COVID-19 epidemic states were identified in Europe, i.e., stabilisation, destabilisation, and expansion. The methodology is universal and can also be useful for other countries, as well as the research results being important for governments, politicians and other policy-makers working to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Time series of price returns for 80 of the most liquid cryptocurrencies listed on Binance are investigated for the presence of detrended cross-correlations. A spectral analysis of the detrended correlation matrix and a topological analysis of the minimal spanning trees calculated based on this matrix are applied for different positions of a moving window. The cryptocurrencies become more strongly cross-correlated among themselves than they used to be before. The average cross-correlations increase with time on a specific time scale in a way that resembles the Epps effect amplification when going from past to present. The minimal spanning trees also change their topology and, for the short time scales, they become more centralized with increasing maximum node degrees, while for the long time scales they become more distributed, but also more correlated at the same time. Apart from the inter-market dependencies, the detrended cross-correlations between the cryptocurrency market and some traditional markets, like the stock markets, commodity markets, and Forex, are also analyzed. The cryptocurrency market shows higher levels of cross-correlations with the other markets during the same turbulent periods, in which it is strongly cross-correlated itself. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is an unprecedented global event that has been challenging governments, health systems, and communities worldwide. Available data from the first months indicated varying patterns of the spread of COVID-19 within American cities, when the spread was faster in high-density and walkable cities such as New York than in low-density and car-oriented cities such as Los Angeles. Subsequent containment efforts, underlying population characteristics, variants, and other factors likely affected the spread significantly. However, this work investigates the hypothesis that urban configuration and associated spatial use patterns directly impact how the disease spreads and infects a population. It follows work that has shown how the spatial configuration of urban spaces impacts the social behavior of people moving through those spaces. It addresses the first 60 days of contagion (before containment measures were widely adopted and had time to affect spread) in 93 urban counties in the United States, considering population size, population density, walkability, here evaluated through walkscore, an indicator that measures the density of amenities, and, therefore, opportunities for population mixing, and the number of confirmed cases and deaths. Our findings indicate correlations between walkability, population density, and COVID-19 spreading patterns but no clear correlation between population size and the number of cases or deaths per 100 k habitants. Although virus spread beyond these initial cases may provide additional data for analysis, this study is an initial step in understanding the relationship between COVID-19 and urban configuration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting the way diseases spread in different societies has been thus far documented as one of the most important tools for control strategies and policy-making during a pandemic. This study is to propose a network autoregressive (NAR) model to forecast the number of total currently infected cases with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Iran until the end of December 2021 in view of the disease interactions within the neighboring countries in the region. For this purpose, the COVID-19 data were initially collected for seven regional nations, including Iran, Turkey, Iraq, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Thenceforth, a network was established over these countries, and the correlation of the disease data was calculated. Upon introducing the main structure of the NAR model, a mathematical platform was subsequently provided to further incorporate the correlation matrix into the prediction process. In addition, the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) was utilized to determine the model parameters and optimize the forecasting accuracy. Thereafter, the number of infected cases up to December 2021 in Iran was predicted by importing the correlation matrix into the NAR model formed to observe the impact of the disease interactions in the neighboring countries. In addition, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) was used as a benchmark to compare and validate the NAR model outcomes. The results reveal that COVID-19 data in Iran have passed the fifth peak and continue on a downward trend to bring the number of total currently infected cases below 480,000 by the end of 2021. Additionally, 20%, 50%, 80% and 95% quantiles are provided along with the point estimation to model the uncertainty in the forecast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The need to provide accurate predictions in the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic has motivated the development of different epidemiological models. These models require a careful calibration of their parameters to capture the dynamics of the phenomena and the uncertainty in the data. This work analyzes different parameters related to the personal evolution of COVID-19 (i.e., time of recovery, length of stay in hospital and delay in hospitalization). A Bayesian Survival Analysis is performed considering the age factor and period of the epidemic as fixed predictors to understand how these features influence the evolution of the epidemic. These results can be easily included in the epidemiological SIR model to make prediction results more stable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global economy is under great shock again in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic; it has not been long since the global financial crisis in 2008. Therefore, we investigate the evolution of the complexity of the cryptocurrency market and analyze the characteristics from the past bull market in 2017 to the present the COVID-19 pandemic. To confirm the evolutionary complexity of the cryptocurrency market, three general complexity analyses based on nonlinear measures were used: approximate entropy (ApEn), sample entropy (SampEn), and Lempel-Ziv complexity (LZ). We analyzed the market complexity/unpredictability for 43 cryptocurrency prices that have been trading until recently. In addition, three non-parametric tests suitable for non-normal distribution comparison were used to cross-check quantitatively. Finally, using the sliding time window analysis, we observed the change in the complexity of the cryptocurrency market according to events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and vaccination. This study is the first to confirm the complexity/unpredictability of the cryptocurrency market from the bull market to the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. We find that ApEn, SampEn, and LZ complexity metrics of all markets could not generalize the COVID-19 effect of the complexity due to different patterns. However, market unpredictability is increasing by the ongoing health crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The pandemic scenery caused by the new coronavirus, called SARS-CoV-2, increased interest in statistical models capable of projecting the evolution of the number of cases (and associated deaths) due to COVID-19 in countries, states and/or cities. This interest is mainly due to the fact that the projections may help the government agencies in making decisions in relation to procedures of prevention of the disease. Since the growth of the number of cases (and deaths) of COVID-19, in general, has presented a heterogeneous evolution over time, it is important that the modeling procedure is capable of identifying periods with different growth rates and proposing an adequate model for each period. Here, we present a modeling procedure based on the fit of a piecewise growth model for the cumulative number of deaths. We opt to focus on the modeling of the cumulative number of deaths because, other than for the number of cases, these values do not depend on the number of diagnostic tests performed. In the proposed approach, the model is updated in the course of the pandemic, and whenever a "new" period of the pandemic is identified, it creates a new sub-dataset composed of the cumulative number of deaths registered from the change point and a new growth model is chosen for that period. Three growth models were fitted for each period: exponential, logistic and Gompertz models. The best model for the cumulative number of deaths recorded is the one with the smallest mean square error and the smallest Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) values. This approach is illustrated in a case study, in which we model the number of deaths due to COVID-19 recorded in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. The results have shown that the fit of a piecewise model is very effective for explaining the different periods of the pandemic evolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze the price return distributions of currency exchange rates, cryptocurrencies, and contracts for differences (CFDs) representing stock indices, stock shares, and commodities. Based on recent data from the years 2017–2020, we model tails of the return distributions at different time scales by using power-law, stretched exponential, and q-Gaussian functions. We focus on the fitted function parameters and how they change over the years by comparing our results with those from earlier studies and find that, on the time horizons of up to a few minutes, the so-called "inverse-cubic power-law" still constitutes an appropriate global reference. However, we no longer observe the hypothesized universal constant acceleration of the market time flow that was manifested before in an ever faster convergence of empirical return distributions towards the normal distribution. Our results do not exclude such a scenario but, rather, suggest that some other short-term processes related to a current market situation alter market dynamics and may mask this scenario. Real market dynamics is associated with a continuous alternation of different regimes with different statistical properties. An example is the COVID-19 pandemic outburst, which had an enormous yet short-time impact on financial markets. We also point out that two factors—speed of the market time flow and the asset cross-correlation magnitude—while related (the larger the speed, the larger the cross-correlations on a given time scale), act in opposite directions with regard to the return distribution tails, which can affect the expected distribution convergence to the normal distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this research work, we propose to assess the dynamic correlation between different mobility indices, measured on a daily basis, and the new cases of COVID-19 in the different Portuguese districts. The analysis is based on global correlation measures, which capture linear and non-linear relationships in time series, in a robust and dynamic way, in a period without significant changes of non-pharmacological measures. The results show that mobility in retail and recreation, grocery and pharmacy, and public transport shows a higher correlation with new COVID-19 cases than mobility in parks, workplaces or residences. It should also be noted that this relationship is lower in districts with lower population density, which leads to the need for differentiated confinement policies in order to minimize the impacts of a terrible economic and social crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new software package for the Julia language, CountTimeSeries.jl, is under review, which provides likelihood based methods for integer-valued time series. The package's functionalities are showcased in a simulation study on finite sample properties of Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation and three real-life data applications. First, the number of newly infected COVID-19 patients is predicted. Then, previous findings on the need for overdispersion and zero inflation are reviewed in an application on animal submissions in New Zealand. Further, information criteria are used for model selection to investigate patterns in corporate insolvencies in Rhineland-Palatinate. Theoretical background and implementation details are described, and complete code for all applications is provided online. The CountTimeSeries package is available at the general Julia package registry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of smart cities, there is a general benefit from monitoring close encounters among pedestrians. For instance, for the access control to office buildings, subway, commercial malls, etc., where a high amount of users may be present simultaneously, and keeping a strict record on each individual may be challenging. GPS tracking may not be available in many indoor cases; video surveillance may require expensive deployment (mainly due to the high-quality cameras and face recognition algorithms) and can be restrictive in case of low budget applications; RFID systems can be cumbersome and limited in the detection range. This information can later be used in many different scenarios. For instance, in case of earthquakes, fires, and accidents in general, the administration of the buildings can have a clear record of the people inside for victim searching activities. However, in the pandemic derived from the COVID-19 outbreak, a tracking that allows detecting of pedestrians in close range (a few meters) can be particularly useful to control the virus propagation. Hence, we propose a mobile clustering scheme where only a selected number of pedestrians (Cluster Heads) collect the information of the people around them (Cluster Members) in their trajectory inside the area of interest. Hence, a small number of transmissions are made to a control post, effectively limiting the collision probability and increasing the successful registration of people in close contact. Our proposal shows an increased success packet transmission probability and a reduced collision and idle slot probability, effectively improving the performance of the system compared to the case of direct transmissions from each node. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this research, statistical models are formulated to study the effect of the health crisis arising from COVID-19 in global markets. Breakpoints in the price series of stock indexes are considered. Such indexes are used as an approximation of the stock markets in different countries, taking into account that they are indicative of these markets because of their composition. The main results obtained in this investigation highlight that countries with better institutional and economic conditions are less affected by the pandemic. In addition, the effect of the health index in the models is associated with their non-significant parameters. This is due to that the health index used in the modeling would not determine the different capacities of the countries analyzed to respond efficiently to the pandemic effect. Therefore, the contagion is the preponderant factor when analyzing the structural breakdown that occurred in the world economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to study the spread of an epidemic over a region as a function of time, we introduce an entropy ratio U describing the uniformity of infections over various states and their districts, and an entropy concentration coefficient C = 1 − U. The latter is a multiplicative version of the Kullback-Leibler distance, with values between 0 and 1. For product measures and self-similar phenomena, it does not depend on the measurement level. Hence, C is an alternative to Gini's concentration coefficient for measures with variation on different levels. Simple examples concern population density and gross domestic product. Application to time series patterns is indicated with a Markov chain. For the Covid-19 pandemic, entropy ratios indicate a homogeneous distribution of infections and the potential of local action when compared to measures for a whole region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social systems are characterized by an enormous network of connections and factors that can influence the structure and dynamics of these systems. Among them the whole economical sphere of human activity seems to be the most interrelated and complex. All financial markets, including the youngest one, the cryptocurrency market, belong to this sphere. The complexity of the cryptocurrency market can be studied from different perspectives. First, the dynamics of the cryptocurrency exchange rates to other cryptocurrencies and fiat currencies can be studied and quantified by means of multifractal formalism. Second, coupling and decoupling of the cryptocurrencies and the conventional assets can be investigated with the advanced cross-correlation analyses based on fractal analysis. Third, an internal structure of the cryptocurrency market can also be a subject of analysis that exploits, for example, a network representation of the market. In this work, we approach the subject from all three perspectives based on data from a recent time interval between January 2019 and June 2020. This period includes the peculiar time of the Covid-19 pandemic; therefore, we pay particular attention to this event and investigate how strong its impact on the structure and dynamics of the market was. Besides, the studied data covers a few other significant events like double bull and bear phases in 2019. We show that, throughout the considered interval, the exchange rate returns were multifractal with intermittent signatures of bifractality that can be associated with the most volatile periods of the market dynamics like a bull market onset in April 2019 and the Covid-19 outburst in March 2020. The topology of a minimal spanning tree representation of the market also used to alter during these events from a distributed type without any dominant node to a highly centralized type with a dominating hub of USDT. However, the MST topology during the pandemic differs in some details from other volatile periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The discovery and sudden spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) exposed individuals to a great uncertainty about the potential health and economic ramifications of the virus, which triggered a surge in demand for information about COVID-19. To understand financial market implications of individuals' behavior upon such uncertainty, we explore the relationship between Google search queries related to COVID-19—information search that reflects one's level of concern or risk perception—and the performance of major financial indices. The empirical analysis based on the Bayesian inference of a structural vector autoregressive model shows that one unit increase in the popularity of COVID-19-related global search queries, after controlling for COVID-19 cases, results in 0.038 – 0.069 % of a cumulative decline in global financial indices after one day and 0.054 – 0.150 % of a cumulative decline after one week. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This investigation deals with a discrete dynamic system of susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic (SISE) using the Tsallis entropy. We investigate the positive and maximal solutions of the system. Stability and equilibrium are studied. Moreover, based on the Tsallis entropy, we shall formulate a new design for the basic reproductive ratio. Finally, we apply the results on live data regarding COVID-19. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After long arguments between positivism and falsificationism, the verification of universal hypotheses was replaced with the confirmation of uncertain major premises. Unfortunately, Hemple proposed the Raven Paradox. Then, Carnap used the increment of logical probability as the confirmation measure. So far, many confirmation measures have been proposed. Measure F proposed by Kemeny and Oppenheim among them possesses symmetries and asymmetries proposed by Elles and Fitelson, monotonicity proposed by Greco et al., and normalizing property suggested by many researchers. Based on the semantic information theory, a measure b* similar to F is derived from the medical test. Like the likelihood ratio, measures b* and F can only indicate the quality of channels or the testing means instead of the quality of probability predictions. Furthermore, it is still not easy to use b*, F, or another measure to clarify the Raven Paradox. For this reason, measure c* similar to the correct rate is derived. Measure c* supports the Nicod Criterion and undermines the Equivalence Condition, and hence, can be used to eliminate the Raven Paradox. An example indicates that measures F and b* are helpful for diagnosing the infection of Novel Coronavirus, whereas most popular confirmation measures are not. Another example reveals that all popular confirmation measures cannot be used to explain that a black raven can confirm "Ravens are black" more strongly than a piece of chalk. Measures F, b*, and c* indicate that the existence of fewer counterexamples is more important than more positive examples' existence, and hence, are compatible with Popper's falsification thought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]