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Domestic and international risk shocks have greatly increased the demand for systemic risk management in China. This paper estimates China's multi-layer financial network based on multiple financial relationships among banks, assets, and firms, using China's banking system data in 2021. An improved PageRank algorithm is proposed to identify systemically important banks and other economic sectors, and a stress test is conducted. This study finds that China's multi-layer financial network is sparse, and the distribution of transactions across financial markets is uneven. Regulatory authorities should support economic recovery and adjust the money supply, while banks should differentiate competition and manage risks better. Based on the PageRank index, this paper assesses the systemic importance of large commercial banks from the perspective of network structure, emphasizing the role of banks' transaction behavior and market participation. Different industries and asset classes are also assessed, suggesting that increased attention should be paid to industry risks and regulatory oversight of bank investments. Finally, stress tests confirm that the improved PageRank algorithm is applicable within the multi-layer financial network, reinforcing the need for prudential supervision of the banking system and revealing that the degree of transaction concentration will affect the systemic importance of financial institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper shows that the empirical distribution of cross-sectional analyst coverage in China's stock markets follows an exponential law in a given month from 2011 to 2020. The findings hold in both the emerging (Shanghai) and the developed market (Hong Kong). Moreover, the unique distribution parameter (i.e., mean) is directly related to the amount of market-wide information. Average analyst coverage exhibits a significant negative predictive power for stock-market uncertainty, highlighting the role of security analysts in diminishing the total uncertainty. The exponential law can be derived from the maximum entropy principle (MEP). When analysts, who are constrained by average ability in generating information (i.e., the first-order moment), strive to maximize the amount of market-wide information, this objective yields the exponential distribution. Contrary to the conventional wisdom that security analysts specialize in the generation of firm-specific information, empirical findings suggest that analysts primarily produce market-wide information for 25 countries. Nevertheless, it remains unclear why cross-sectional analyst coverage reflects market-wide information, this paper provides an entropy-based explanation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on authorized patents of China's artificial intelligence industry from 2013 to 2022, this paper constructs an Industry–University–Research institution (IUR) collaboration network and an Inter-Firm (IF) collaboration network and used the entropy weight method to take both the quantity and quality of patents into account to calculate the innovation performance of firms. Through the hierarchical clustering algorithm and classification and regression trees (CART) algorithm, in-depth analysis has been conducted on the intricate non-linear influence mechanisms between multiple variables and a firm's innovation performance. The findings indicate the following: (1) Based on the network centrality (NC), structural hole (SH), collaboration breadth (CB), and collaboration depth (CD) of both IUR and IF collaboration networks, two types of focal firms are identified. (2) For different types of focal firms, the combinations of network characteristics affecting their innovation performance are various. (3) In the IUR collaboration network, focal firms with a wide range of heterogeneous collaborative partners can obtain high innovation performance. However, focal firms in the IF collaboration network can achieve the same aim by maintaining deep collaboration with other focal firms. This paper not only helps firms make scientific decisions for development but also provides valuable suggestions for government policymakers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses the entropy method to estimate China's green financial development from four aspects, namely, green credit, green securities, green insurance, and green investment, based on the provincial-level panel data from 2008 to 2019. The spatial Durbin model (SDM) is adopted to estimate the spatial effect of green finance on carbon emissions. We then compare the heterogeneous effect in the South and North of China. The results show that China's green financial development can significantly reduce carbon emissions, and regional heterogeneities are obvious. In the South of China, this effect from local and adjacent regions is not significant, while on the whole, green finance can significantly reduce carbon emissions; but for Northern China, this effect is not significant; nationally, the development of green finance and carbon emissions in adjacent areas showed an inverted U-shaped relationship. China's green financial development and carbon emissions also showed an inverted U-shaped relationship. These results suggest that the effect of green finance development on carbon emissions exhibits substantial regional heterogeneity in China. Our paper provides some concrete empirical evidence for policymakers to formulate green financial policies to achieve the double carbon goal in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At present, the existing influence evaluation algorithms often ignore network structure attributes, user interests and the time-varying propagation characteristics of influence. To address these issues, this work comprehensively discusses users' own influence, weighted indicators, users' interaction influence and the similarity between user interests and topics, thus proposing a dynamic user influence ranking algorithm called UWUSRank. First, we determine the user's own basic influence based on their activity, authentication information and blog response. This improves the problem of poor objectivity of initial value on user influence evaluation when using PageRank to calculate user influence. Next, this paper mines users' interaction influence by introducing the propagation network properties of Weibo (a Twitter-like service in China) information and scientifically quantifies the contribution value of followers' influence to the users they follow according to different interaction influences, thereby solving the drawback of equal value transfer of followers' influence. Additionally, we analyze the relevance of users' personalized interest preferences and topic content and realize real-time monitoring of users' influence at various time periods during the process of public opinion dissemination. Finally, we conduct experiments by extracting real Weibo topic data to verify the effectiveness of introducing each attribute of users' own influence, interaction timeliness and interest similarity. Compared to TwitterRank, PageRank and FansRank, the results show that the UWUSRank algorithm improves the rationality of user ranking by 9.3%, 14.2%, and 16.7%, respectively, which proves the practicality of the UWUSRank algorithm. This approach can serve as a guide for research on user mining, information transmission methods, and public opinion tracking in social network-related areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the globalization of higher education, academic evaluation is increasingly valued by the scientific and educational circles. Although the number of published papers of academic evaluation methods is increasing, previous research mainly focused on the method of assigning different weights for various indicators, which can be subjective and limited. This paper investigates the evaluation of academic performance by using the statistical K-means (SKM) algorithm to produce clusters. The core idea is mapping the evaluation data from Euclidean space to Riemannian space in which the geometric structure can be used to obtain accurate clustering results. The method can adapt to different indicators and make full use of big data. By using the K-means algorithm based on statistical manifolds, the academic evaluation results of universities can be obtained. Furthermore, through simulation experiments on the top 20 universities of China with the traditional K-means, GMM and SKM algorithms, respectively, we analyze the advantages and disadvantages of different methods. We also test the three algorithms on a UCI ML dataset. The simulation results show the advantages of the SKM algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The large-scale application of blockchain technology is an expected to be an inevitable trend. This study revolves around published papers and articles related to blockchain technology, relevance analysis and sorting through the retrieved documents with six core layers of blockchain: Application Layer, Contract Layer, Actuator Layer, Consensus Layer, Network Layer and Data Layer. Based on the analysis results, this study found that China's research is more towards the preference and application of landing and industry and smart cities with blockchain as the underlying technology. International research is more focused on the research of finance as the underlying technology of blockchain and tries to combine crypto assets with real industries, such as crypted assets and payment systems for traditional industries. This paper studies the impact of monetary entropy on cryptocurrencies in smart cities and uses the monetary entropy formula to measure the crypto-economic entropy. We use Kolmogorov entropy to describe the degree of chaos in the cryptocurrency market in a smart city. The study illustrates the current status of blockchain technology and applications from the perspective of cryptocurrency in a smart city. We find that smart cities and cryptocurrencies have a mutually reinforcing effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the perspective of the innovation value chain, sci-tech innovation is divided into two stages: R&D and achievement transformation. This paper uses panel data from 25 provinces in China as the sample. We utilize a two-way fixed effect model, spatial Dubin model, and panel threshold model to discuss the impact of two-stage innovation efficiency on the value of the green brand, the spatial effect of this impact, and the threshold role of intellectual property protection in the process. The results indicate that: (1) the two stages of innovation efficiency have a positive impact on the value of green brands, and the effect of the eastern region is significantly better than that of the central and western regions. (2) The spatial spillover effect of the two stages of regional innovation efficiency on the value of green brands is evident, especially in the eastern region. (3) The innovation value chain has a pronounced spillover effect. (4) The single threshold effect of intellectual property protection is significant. When the threshold is crossed, the positive impact of the two stages of innovation efficiency on the value of green brands is significantly enhanced. (5) The influence of economic development level, openness, market size, and marketization degree on the value of green brands shows remarkable regional differences. In conclusion, this study contributes to understanding green brands' growth and provides important implications for developing independent brands in various regions of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much of the existing research on banking systemic risk focuses on static single-risk exposures, and there is a lack of research on multiple-risk exposures. The reality is that the banking system is facing an increasingly complex environment, and dynamic measures of multiple-risk integration are essential. To reveal the risk accumulation process under the multi-risk exposures of the banking system, this article constructs a dynamic banking system as the research object and combines geometric Brownian motion, the BSM model, and the maximum likelihood estimate method. This article also aims to incorporate three types of exposures (interbank lending market risk exposures, entity industry credit risk exposures, and market risk exposures) within the same framework for the first time and builds a model of the dynamic evolution of banking systemic risk under multiple exposures. This study included the collection of a large amount of real data on banks, entity industries, and market risk factors, and used the Δ C o V a R model to evaluate the systemic risk of the China banking system from the point of view of the accumulation of risk from different exposures, revealing the dynamic process of risk accumulation under the integration of multiple risks within the banking system, as well as the contribution of different exposures to banking systemic risk. The results showed that the banking systemic risk of China first increased and then decreased with time, and the rate of risk accumulation is gradually slowing down. In terms of the impact of different kinds of exposures on system losses, the credit risk exposure of the entity industry had the greatest impact on the banking systemic risk among the three kinds of exposures. In terms of the contribution of the interbank lending market risk to the systemic risk, the Bank of Communications, China Everbright Bank, and Bank of Beijing contributed the most. In terms of the contribution of the bank–entity industry credit risk to the systemic risk, the financial industry, accommodation and catering industry, and manufacturing industry contributed the most. Considering the contribution of market risk to the systemic risk, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Hang Seng Composite Index, and the Dow Jones Index contributed the most. The research in this paper enriches the existing banking systemic risk research perspective and provides a reference for the regulatory decisions of central banks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the continuous construction of transportation infrastructure, intersection nodes have been increasing rapidly, bringing growing numbers of tunnel- and exit-adjacent sections (TEAS) in mountain expressways in China. With the complex variation in the surrounding environment, drivers always face congestion and confusion on tunnel and the exit connecting sections (TECS) without adequate length, meanwhile excessively long TECS create detours. To better provide a sustainable design strategy for TEAS, based on a certain section of expressway in Shaanxi, China, this paper establishes a theoretical calculation model through analysis. The characteristics of traffic flow and drivers' light adaptation at tunnel exit are obtained through data collection and driving tests, and the length requirements of the tunnel and exit connecting sections (TECS) are discussed. A VISSIM microscopic simulation model is also built under various design schemes and entropy-based multi-attribute decision making (EBMADM) is used to objectively calculate the weights of the four selected evaluation indexes. Then, the design schemes of the TECS with different lengths have been comprehensively evaluated. The results show the match between the evaluation results of EBMADM with theoretical calculations under existing traffic conditions, which proves the rationality of EBMADM in such problems. For more cases, the results of the EBMADM evaluation show a positive correlation between the length of TECS for the best performing design scheme with traffic volume and diverging ratio. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geographical gravity models can be employed to quantitatively describe and predict spatial flows, including migration flows, passenger flows, daily commuting flows, etc. However, how to model spatial flows and reveal the structure of urban traffic networks in the case of missing partial data is still a problem to be solved. This paper is devoted to characterizing the interurban passenger flows in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region of China using dual gravity models and Tencent location big data. The method of parameter estimation is the least squares regression. The main results are as follows. First, both the railway and highway passenger flows can be effectively described by dual gravity models. A small part of missing spatial data can be compensated for by predicted values. Second, the fractal properties of traffic flows can be revealed. The railway passenger flows follow the gravity scaling law better than the highway passenger flows. Third, the prediction residuals indicate the changing trend of interurban connections in the study area in recent years. The center of gravity of the spatial dynamics has shifted from the Beijing–Tianjin–Tangshan triangle to the Beijing–Baoding–Shijiazhuang axis. A conclusion can be reached that the dual gravity model is an effective tool for analyzing spatial structures and dynamics of traffic networks and flows. Moreover, the model provides a new approach to estimating the fractal dimensions of traffic networks and spatial flow patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the multidimensional spatial effects of risk spillovers among Chinese financial institutions and the dynamic evolution of financial risk contagion in the tail risk correlation network over different time periods. We first measure risk spillovers from financial submarkets to the stock market, identifying five periods using structural breakpoint tests. Then, we construct a spatial error financial network panel model by combining complex network and spatial econometric theory to explore the spatial spillover variability. Finally, we calculate the Bonacich centrality of nodes in the tail risk network and analyze the dynamic evolution of the financial impact path during the different time periods. The results show that the multidimensional spatial spillovers of financial risk among financial institutions are obvious and time varying. The spatial spillovers of financial institutions are positively correlated with the turnover rate and negatively correlated with the exchange rate, interest rate and return volatility. Financial institutions of the same type in the tail risk network display intraindustry risk clustering, and the systemically important institutions identified based on Bonacich centrality differ significantly across time. Moreover, when risk spillovers increase, external shocks' destructive power and speed of transmission to the network rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key element for reducing energy consumption and improving thermal comfort on high-speed rail is controlling air-conditioning temperature. Accurate prediction of air supply temperature is aimed at improving control effects. Existing studies of supply air temperature prediction models are interdisciplinary, involving heat transfer science and computer science, where the problem is defined as time-series prediction. However, the model is widely accepted as a complex model that is nonlinear and dynamic. That makes it difficult for existing statistical and deep learning methods, e.g., autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), convolutional neural network (CNN), and long short-term memory network (LSTM), to fully capture the interaction between these variables and provide accurate prediction results. Recent studies have shown the potential of the Transformer to increase the prediction capacity. This paper offers an improved temporal fusion transformers (TFT) prediction model for supply air temperature in high-speed train carriages to tackle these challenges, with two improvements: (i) Double-convolutional residual encoder structure based on dilated causal convolution; (ii) Spatio-temporal double-gated structure based on Gated Linear Units. Moreover, this study designs a loss function suitable for general long sequence time-series forecast tasks for temperature forecasting. Empirical simulations using a high-speed rail air-conditioning operation dataset at a specific location in China show that the temperature prediction of the two units using the improved TFT model improves the MAPE by 21.70% and 11.73%, respectively the original model. Furthermore, experiments demonstrate that the model effectively outperforms seven popular methods on time series computing tasks, and the attention of the prediction problem in the time dimension is analyzed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy saving is one of the main technique routes for net zero carbon emissions. Air compressor systems take up a large part of energy consumption in the industrial field. A pre-cooling air compressor system was proposed for energy saving by cooling the air before it flows in a compressor. The energy efficiency of the proposed system was analyzed. As additional energy consumption is required for air cooling, the feasibility of the pre-cooling method for energy saving was analyzed. As the efficiency of the pre-cooling air compressor system is mainly influenced by the environment temperature and humidity, applicability of the system in different regions and at different seasons was discussed. A pilot project was performed to verify the technical feasibility and economics of the proposed system. When the precooling temperature of the pilot system was set to 2 °C, the annual pneumatic-electrical ratio of the system can be increased by approximately 2% in several regions of China. This paper shows the pre-cooling air compressor system is feasible for energy saving. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the double carbon background, riding the wind of new energy vehicles and the battery high nickelization, nickel resources rise along with the trend. In recent years, due to the influence of geopolitical conflicts and emergencies, as well as the speculation and control of international capital with its advantages and rules, the world may face price and security supply risks to a certain extent. Therefore, to obtain the most objective trade redistribution strategy, this paper first constructs the nickel material trade network, identifies the core trading countries and the main trade relations of nickel material trade, and finds that the flow of nickel material mainly occurred between a few countries. On this basis, a trade redistribution model is constructed based on the maximum entropy principle. Taking Indonesia, the largest exporter, and the largest trade relationship (Indonesia exports to China) as examples, the nickel material redistribution between countries when different supply risks occur are simulated. The results can provide an important reference for national resource recovery after the risk of the nickel trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Medical data are often missing during epidemiological surveys and clinical trials. In this paper, we propose the MCMCINLA estimation method to account for missing data. We introduce a new latent class into the spatial lag model (SLM) and use a conditional autoregressive specification (CAR) spatial model-based approach to impute missing values, making the model fit into the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) framework. Combining the advantages of both the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and INLA frameworks, the MCMCINLA algorithm is used to implement imputation of the missing data and fit the model to derive estimates of the parameters from the posterior margins. Finally, the economic data and the hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) disease data of mainland China from 2016–2018 are used as examples to explore the development of public health in China in the post-epidemic era. The results show that compared with expectation maximization (EM) and full information maximum likelihood estimation (FIML), the predicted values of the missing data obtained using our method are closer to the true values, and the spatial distribution of HFRS in China can be inferred from the imputation results with a southern-heavy and northern-light distribution. It can provide some references for the development of public health in China in the post-epidemic era. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we discuss the decision optimization of tourism projects in Hebei Province, China. To improve the process of analyzing tourism projects, we introduce a model that includes multiple decision makers as subjects based on a standard four-dimensional evaluation system. In order to improve the effectiveness of decision-making results, we will increase the number of decision makers to 40. A novel large-scale group decision-making (LSGDM) algorithm that incorporates the trust–distrust asymmetric relationships between decision makers is proposed. This model contains three main innovations: firstly, in the evaluation of decision makers' social network relations, the trust–distrust value is introduced as a new carrier, and a weighted directed network and data integration operator are constructed based on the evaluation between decision makers; secondly, an extended Girvan-Newman (GN) algorithm is constructed to cluster the decision makers from this weighted network; thirdly, the interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy number (IVIFN) is used to evaluate the alternatives, studying the IVIFN's geometric significance by placing in a rectangular coordinate system. Finally, a new LSGDM model is proposed. Using the development of a cultural tourism project in a township as an example, the effectiveness of the proposed model is illustrated. By comparing the results of our method to those of a LSGDM algorithm that does not incorporate trust relationships, we assess the performance of the new model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a serious worldwide problem, suicide often causes huge and irreversible losses to families and society. Therefore, it is necessary to detect and help individuals with suicidal ideation in time. In recent years, the prosperous development of social media has provided new perspectives on suicide detection, but related research still faces some difficulties, such as data imbalance and expression implicitness. In this paper, we propose a Deep Hierarchical Ensemble model for Suicide Detection (DHE-SD) based on a hierarchical ensemble strategy, and construct a dataset based on Sina Weibo, which contains more than 550 thousand posts from 4521 users. To verify the effectiveness of the model, we also conduct experiments on a public Weibo dataset containing 7329 users' posts. The proposed model achieves the best performance on both the constructed dataset and the public dataset. In addition, in order to make the model applicable to a wider population, we use the proposed sentence-level mask mechanism to delete user posts with strong suicidal ideation. Experiments show that the proposed model can still effectively identify social media users with suicidal ideation even when the performance of the baseline models decrease significantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the increasing demand of oil products in China, the energy consumption of pipeline operation will continue to rise greatly, as well as the cost of oil transportation. In the field of practical engineering, saving energy, reducing energy consumption and adapting to the international oil situation are the development trends and represent difficult problems. Based on the basic principle of non-equilibrium thermodynamics, this paper derives the field equilibrium equations of non-equilibrium thermodynamic process for pipeline transportation. To seek the bilinear form of "force" and "flow" in the non-equilibrium thermodynamics of entropy generation rate, the oil pipeline exergy balance equation and the exergy transfer pipeline dynamic equation of the irreversibility were established. The exergy balance equation was applied to energy balance evaluation system, which makes the system more perfect. The exergy flow transfer law of the waxy oil pipeline were explored deeply from the directions of dynamic exergy, pressure exergy, thermal exergy and diffusion exergy. Taking an oil pipeline as an example, the influence factors of exergy transfer coefficient and exergy flow density were analyzed separately. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Weather information is an important factor in short-term load forecasting (STLF). However, for a long time, more importance has always been attached to forecasting models instead of other processes such as the introduction of weather factors or feature selection for STLF. The main aim of this paper is to develop a novel methodology based on Fisher information for meteorological variables introduction and variable selection in STLF. Fisher information computation for one-dimensional and multidimensional weather variables is first described, and then the introduction of meteorological factors and variables selection for STLF models are discussed in detail. On this basis, different forecasting models with the proposed methodology are established. The proposed methodology is implemented on real data obtained from Electric Power Utility of Zhenjiang, Jiangsu Province, in southeast China. The results show the advantages of the proposed methodology in comparison with other traditional ones regarding prediction accuracy, and it has very good practical significance. Therefore, it can be used as a unified method for introducing weather variables into STLF models, and selecting their features. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, with the deepening of China's electricity sales side reform and electricity market opening up gradually, the forecasting of electricity consumption (FoEC) becomes an extremely important technique for the electricity market. At present, how to forecast the electricity accurately and make an evaluation of results scientifically are still key research topics. In this paper, we propose a novel prediction scheme based on the least-square support vector machine (LSSVM) model with a maximum correntropy criterion (MCC) to forecast the electricity consumption (EC). Firstly, the electricity characteristics of various industries are analyzed to determine the factors that mainly affect the changes in electricity, such as the gross domestic product (GDP), temperature, and so on. Secondly, according to the statistics of the status quo of the small sample data, the LSSVM model is employed as the prediction model. In order to optimize the parameters of the LSSVM model, we further use the local similarity function MCC as the evaluation criterion. Thirdly, we employ the K-fold cross-validation and grid searching methods to improve the learning ability. In the experiments, we have used the EC data of Shaanxi Province in China to evaluate the proposed prediction scheme, and the results show that the proposed prediction scheme outperforms the method based on the traditional LSSVM model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What is the impact of a bank failure on the whole banking industry? To resolve this issue, the paper develops a transfer entropy-based method to determine the interbank exposure matrix between banks. This method constructs the interbank market structure by calculating the transfer entropy matrix using bank stock price sequences. This paper also evaluates the stability of Chinese banking system by simulating the risk contagion process. This paper contributes to the literature on interbank contagion mainly in two ways: it establishes a convincing connection between interbank market and transfer entropy, and exploits the market information (stock price) rather than presumptions to determine the interbank exposure matrix. Second, the empirical analysis provides an in depth understanding of the stability of the current Chinese banking system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we define the portfolio return as fuzzy average yield and risk as hybrid-entropy and variance to deal with the portfolio selection problem with both random uncertainty and fuzzy uncertainty, and propose a mean-variance hybrid-entropy model (MVHEM). A multi-objective genetic algorithm named Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II) is introduced to solve the model. We make empirical comparisons by using the data from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges in China. The results show that the MVHEM generally performs better than the traditional portfolio selection models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the risk pattern of e-bike riders in China was examined, based on tree-structured machine learning techniques. Three-year crash/violation data were acquired from the Kunshan traffic police department, China. Firstly, high-risk (HR) electric bicycle (e-bike) riders were defined as those with at-fault crash involvement, while others (i.e., non-at-fault or without crash involvement) were considered as non-high-risk (NHR) riders, based on quasi-induced exposure theory. Then, for e-bike riders, their demographics and previous violation-related features were developed based on the crash/violation records. After that, a systematic machine learning (ML) framework was proposed so as to capture the complex risk patterns of those e-bike riders. An ensemble sampling method was selected to deal with the imbalanced datasets. Four tree-structured machine learning methods were compared, and a gradient boost decision tree (GBDT) appeared to be the best. The feature importance and partial dependence were further examined. Interesting findings include the following: (1) tree-structured ML models are able to capture complex risk patterns and interpret them properly; (2) spatial-temporal violation features were found as important indicators of high-risk e-bike riders; and (3) violation behavior features appeared to be more effective than violation punishment-related features, in terms of identifying high-risk e-bike riders. In general, the proposed ML framework is able to identify the complex crash risk pattern of e-bike riders. This paper provides useful insights for policy-makers and traffic practitioners regarding e-bike safety improvement in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Detection of abrupt change is a key issue for understanding the facts and trends of climate change, but it is also a difficult task in practice. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test is commonly used for treating the issue, while the results are usually affected by the correlation and seasonal characters and sample size of series. This paper proposes a discrete wavelet entropy-aided approach for abrupt change detection, with the temperature analyses in the Haihe River Basin (HRB) as an example. The results show some obviously abrupt temperature changes in the study area in the 1960s-1990s. The MK test results do not reflect those abrupt temperature changes after the 1980s. Comparatively, the proposed approach can detect all main abrupt temperature changes in HRB, so it is more effective than the MK test. Differing from the MK test which only considers series' value order or the conventional entropy which mainly considers series' statistical random characters, the proposed approach is to describe the complexity and disorderliness of series using wavelet entropy theories, and it can fairly consider series' composition and characteristics under different scales, so the results can more accurately reflect not only the abrupt changes, but also the complexity variation of a series over time. However, since it is based on the entropy theories, the series analyzed must have big sample size enough and the sampling rates being smaller than the concerned scale for the accurate computation of entropy values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vulnerability of water resources is an important criterion for evaluating the carrying capacity of water resources systems under the influence of climate change and human activities. Moreover, assessment and prediction of river basins' water resources vulnerability are important means to assess the water resources security state of river basins and identify possible problems in future water resources systems. Based on the constructed indicator system of water resources vulnerability assessment in Song-Liao River Basin, this paper uses the neighborhood rough set (abbreviated as NRS) method to reduce the dimensionality of the original indicator system to remove redundant attributes. Then, assessment indicators' standard values after dimensionality reduction are taken as the evaluation sample, and the random forest regression (abbreviated as RF) model is used to assess the water resources vulnerability of the river basin. Finally, based on data under three different future climate and socio-economic scenarios, scenario predictions are made on the vulnerability of future water resources. The results show that the overall water resources vulnerability of the Song-Liao River Basin has not improved significantly in the past 18 years, and the overall vulnerability of the Song-Liao River Basin is in the level V of moderate to high vulnerability. In the future scenario 1, the overall water resources vulnerability of the river basin will improve, and it is expected to achieve an improvement to the level III of moderate to low vulnerability. At the same time, the natural vulnerability and vulnerability of carrying capacity will increase significantly in the future, and the man-made vulnerability will increase slowly, which will deteriorate to the level V of moderate to high vulnerability under Scenario 3. Therefore, taking active measures can significantly reduce the vulnerability of nature and carrying capacity, but man-made vulnerability will become a bottleneck restricting the fragility of the overall water resources of the river basin in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to literature review and the data of China's logistics listed companies, this paper firstly designs the high-quality development evaluation system of logistics enterprises and establishes the panel data model group. Secondly, the method of entropy weight-Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS method) is used to synthesize and regress the indexes, and obtains that the fitting degree of the model is low, which is caused by the lack of data of some indicators in the logistics enterprises. Due to the gray nature of data information, the improved gray relational model and the three-dimensional gray relational model are constructed to study, in-depth, the strategic focus and breakthrough of high-quality development of Chinese logistics enterprises. The research finds that the innovation and the operation ability of Chinese logistics enterprises are weak, which shows specifically in the following aspects: (1) The irrational structure of the employees, the proportion of employees with a bachelor degree or above is small, and the high-education personnel fail to significantly promote the corporate performance; (2) R&D expenditure has little effect on the high-quality development of enterprises. The proportion of R&D expenses is small and cannot be translated into actual benefits, and the ability of enterprise management innovation is insufficient. According to these findings, this paper gives three lean paths for the high-quality development of China's logistics enterprises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The trend prediction of the stock is a main challenge. Accidental factors often lead to short-term sharp fluctuations in stock markets, deviating from the original normal trend. The short-term fluctuation of stock price has high noise, which is not conducive to the prediction of stock trends. Therefore, we used discrete wavelet transform (DWT)-based denoising to denoise stock data. Denoising the stock data assisted us to eliminate the influences of short-term random events on the continuous trend of the stock. The denoised data showed more stable trend characteristics and smoothness. Extreme learning machine (ELM) is one of the effective training algorithms for fully connected single-hidden-layer feedforward neural networks (SLFNs), which possesses the advantages of fast convergence, unique results, and it does not converge to a local minimum. Therefore, this paper proposed a combination of ELM- and DWT-based denoising to predict the trend of stocks. The proposed method was used to predict the trend of 400 stocks in China. The prediction results of the proposed method are a good proof of the efficacy of DWT-based denoising for stock trends, and showed an excellent performance compared to 12 machine learning algorithms (e.g., recurrent neural network (RNN) and long short-term memory (LSTM)). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the "high stock dividend" of A-share companies in China often leads to the short-term stock price increase, this phenomenon's prediction has been widely concerned by academia and industry. In this study, a new multi-layer stacking ensemble algorithm is proposed. Unlike the classic stacking ensemble algorithm that focused on the differentiation of base models, this paper used the equal weight comprehensive feature evaluation method to select features before predicting the base model and used a genetic algorithm to match the optimal feature subset for each base model. After the base model's output prediction, the LightGBM (LGB) model was added to the algorithm as a secondary information extraction layer. Finally, the algorithm inputs the extracted information into the Logistic Regression (LR) model to complete the prediction of the "high stock dividend" phenomenon. Using the A-share market data from 2010 to 2019 for simulation and evaluation, the proposed model improves the AUC (Area Under Curve) and F1 score by 0.173 and 0.303, respectively, compared to the baseline model. The prediction results shed light on event-driven investment strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Petroleum agriculture, characterized by mechanization and chemistry, is developing rapidly in China. However, petroleum agriculture has not only brought food safety problems, but also caused great obstacles to the sustainable development of society. In view of the disadvantages of oil agriculture, we provide an upgrading plan for energy systems in agriculture. This work can help reduce carbon emissions and improve food security. We introduce the most advanced technologies in Chinese agricultural development and the technical scope includes new agricultural energy power generation, agricultural energy use and the safe operation of agricultural energy systems. We describe the detailed data of agricultural bioenvironmental and energy engineering to clarify the level of agricultural energy efficiency in China. The overall conclusion of this paper is that the deep integration of agriculture and energy internet has become the development trend of agricultural energy systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the measurement of producer service industry agglomeration and export technological complexity of manufactured products in 288 Chinese cities from 2000 to 2015, this paper illustrates the evolvement and spatial characteristics of the two factors through visualization figures, and discusses the effects of producer services agglomeration on export technological complexity of manufacturing through robust panel data models. The findings are as follows: as with the influence of industrial connection, empirical outcomes indicate that urban producer service agglomeration can promote technological complexity of export manufacturing on the full-sample level. Visualization analysis shows that the scale of producer service industry agglomeration and the export technological complexity of manufactured products around Chinese cities kept rising constantly during the study period. However, although the export technological complexity displayed a trickle-down effect, the producer service industry agglomeration experienced continuous polarization both on the national and the regional levels. Accordingly, as is shown in the empirical analysis by areas, regions with strong support from producer service industry saw a remarkable promotion in the export manufacturing technology, while the northwest and the northeast gradually lagged behind. Such results sufficiently prove that heterogeneity does exist in the performances of industrial connection between producer service industry and export manufacturing in cities of different regions in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The meta-synthesis method has achieved good results in China's aerospace engineering and population economic regulation. This theoretical achievement obtained from engineering practice becomes an effective way to solve complex decision-making problems. The meta-synthesis method obtains the final decision-making result by comprehensively considering qualitative and quantitative criteria and gathering multivariate heterogeneous attribute information. In view of the broad application of entropy theory in quantitative evaluation and fuzzy decision-making, this paper proposes a meta-synthesis decision-making method based on probabilistic linguistic cross-entropy and priority relations for multicriteria decision-making problems including qualitative and quantitative multivariate heterogeneous attribute information. First, the quantitative attribute weight is calculated based on the entropy weight method, and the qualitative attribute weight is calculated by considering the individual effects and interactions of the probabilistic linguistic term sets under qualitative attributes comprehensively through probabilistic linguistic entropy and cross-entropy. Then, the weight preference coefficient is used to integrate the qualitative and quantitative heterogeneous attribute weights to obtain standardized processing weight information, and, on the basis of the 0–1 priority relation matrix, we compare and analyze the advantages and disadvantages of alternatives under all criteria and obtain an overall ranking result of the alternatives. Finally, the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method are verified by a comparative analysis of a numerical example and the decision-making method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stock market is a complex system with unpredictable stock price fluctuations. When the positive feedback in the market amplifies, the systemic risk will increase rapidly. During the last 30 years of development, the mechanism and governance system of China's stock market have been constantly improving, but irrational shocks have still appeared suddenly in the last decade, making investment decisions risky. Therefore, based on the daily return of all a-shares in China, this paper constructs a dynamic complex network of individual stocks, and represents the systemic risk of the market using the average weighting degree, as well as the adjusted structural entropy, of the network. In order to eliminate the influence of disturbance factors, empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and grey relational analysis (GRA) are used to decompose and reconstruct the sequences to obtain the evolution trend and periodic fluctuation of systemic risk. The results show that the systemic risk of China's stock market as a whole shows a downward trend, and the periodic fluctuation of systemic risk has a long-term equilibrium relationship with the abnormal fluctuation of the stock market. Further, each rise of systemic risk corresponds to external factor shocks and internal structural problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The investigation of the systemic importance of financial institutions (SIFIs) has become a hot topic in the field of financial risk management. By making full use of 5-min high-frequency data, and with the help of the method of entropy weight technique for order preference by similarities to ideal solution (TOPSIS), this paper builds jump volatility spillover network of China's financial institutions to measure the SIFIs. We find that: (i) state-owned depositories and large insurers display SIFIs according to the score of entropy weight TOPSIS; (ii) total connectedness of financial institution networks reveal that Industrial Bank, Ping An Bank and Pacific Securities play an important role when financial market is under pressure, especially during the subprime crisis, the European sovereign debt crisis and China's stock market disaster; (iii) an interesting finding shows that some small financial institutions are also SIFIs during the financial crisis and cannot be ignored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a Blockchain-driven platform for supply chain finance, BCautoSCF (Zhi-lian-che-rong in Chinese), is introduced. It is successfully established as a reliable and efficient financing platform for the auto retail industry. Due to the Blockchain built-in trust mechanism, participants in the supply chain (SC) networks work extensively and transparently to run a reliable, convenient, and traceable business. Likewise, the traditional supply chain finance (SCF), partial automation of SCF workflows with fewer human errors and disruptions was achieved through smart contract in BCautoSCF. Such open and secure features suggest the feasibility of BCautoSCF in SCF. As the first Blockchain-driven SCF application for the auto retail industry in China, our contribution lies in studying these pain points existing in traditional SCF and proposing a novel Blockchain-driven design to reshape the business logic of SCF to develop an efficient and reliable financing platform for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in the auto retail industry to decrease the cost of financing and speed up the cash flows. Currently, there are over 600 active enterprise users that adopt BCautoSCF to run their financing business. Up to October 2019, the BCautoSCF provides services to 449 online/offline auto retailors, three B2B asset exchange platforms, nine fund providers, and 78 logistic services across 21 provinces in China. There are 3296 financing transactions successfully completed in BCautoSCF, and the amount of financing is ¥566,784,802.18. In the future, we will work towards supporting a full automation of SCF workflow by smart contracts, so that the efficiency of transaction will be further improved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper employs the Baidu Index as the novel proxy for unexpected information demand and shows that this novel proxy can explain the volatility clustering of Chinese stock returns. Generally speaking, these findings suggest that investors in China could take advantage of the Baidu Index to obtain information and then improve their investment decision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investor behavior is one of the important factors that affects market liquidity. It is very interesting to find out how investor behavior affects stock market liquidity. The Investor sentiment changes and information cognitive ability affect not only their expected returns but also market liquidity through short-selling restrained market behavior. This paper gives a comprehensive index of investor sentiment based on the entropy method. According to the empirical analysis based on evidence from China, we obtain the following results: The investor sentiment has a positive impact on market liquidity; the development of margin trading has curbed the positive impact of investor sentiment on market liquidity; the information cognitive ability has a negative impact on market liquidity; the explosive information volume enhances the market liquidity in the bull, weakens the market liquidity in the bear, and has no significant impact while shocked. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing water resources vulnerability is the foundation of local water resources management. However, as one of the major water systems in China, there is no existing evaluation index system that can effectively assess water resource vulnerability for the Huai River basin. To address this issue, we identified key vulnerability factors, constructed an evaluation index system, and applied such system to evaluate water resources vulnerability for the Huai River basin empirically in this paper. Specifically, our evaluation index system consists of 18 indexes selected from three different aspects: water shortage, water pollution, and water-related natural disaster. Then, the improved blind deletion rough set method was used to reduce the size of the evaluation index while keep the evaluation power. In addition, the improved conditional information entropy rough set method was employed to calculate the weights of evaluation indexes. Based on the reduced index system and calculated weights, a rough set cloud model was applied to carry out the vulnerability evaluation. The empirical results show that the Huai River basin water resources were under severe vulnerability conditions for most of the time between 2000 and 2016, and the Most Stringent Water Resources Management System (MS-WRMS) established in 2012 did not work effectively as expected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applies effective transfer entropy to research the information transfer in the Chinese stock market around its crash in 2015. According to the market states, the entire period is divided into four sub-phases: the tranquil, bull, crash, and post-crash periods. Kernel density estimation is used to calculate the effective transfer entropy. Then, the information transfer network is constructed. Nodes' centralities and the directed maximum spanning trees of the networks are analyzed. The results show that, in the tranquil period, the information transfer is weak in the market. In the bull period, the strength and scope of the information transfer increases. The utility sector outputs a great deal of information and is the hub node for the information flow. In the crash period, the information transfer grows further. The market efficiency in this period is worse than that in the other three sub-periods. The information technology sector is the biggest information source, while the consumer staples sector receives the most information. The interactions of the sectors become more direct. In the post-crash period, information transfer declines but is still stronger than the tranquil time. The financial sector receives the largest amount of information and is the pivot node. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, coal-fired power plants contribute the biggest part of power generation in China. Challenges of energy conservation and emission reduction of the coal-fired power plant encountering with a rapid growth due to the rising proportion of renewable energy generation in total power generation. Energy saving power generation dispatch (ESPGD) based on power units sorting technology is a promising approach to meet the challenge. Therefore, it is crucial to establish a reasonable and feasible multi-index comprehensive evaluation (MICE) framework for assessing the performance of coal-fired power units accessed by the power grid. In this paper, a hierarchical multiple criteria evaluation system was established. Except for the typical economic and environmental indices, the evaluation system considering operational flexibility and power quality indices either. A hybrid comprehensive evaluation model was proposed to assess the unit operational performance. The model is an integration of grey relational analysis (GRA) with analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and a novel entropy-based method (abbreviate as BECC) which integrates bootstrap method and correlation coefficient (CC) into entropy principle to get the objective weight of indices. Then a case study on seven typical 600 megawatts coal-fired power units was carried out to illustrate the proposed evaluation model, and a weight sensitivity analysis was developed in addition. The results of the case study shows that unit 4 has the power generating priority over the rest ones, and unit 2 ranks last, with the lowest grey relational degree. The weight sensitivity analysis shows that the environmental factor has the biggest sensitivity coefficient. And the validation analysis of the developed BECC weight method shows that it is feasible for the MICE model, and it is stable with an ignorable uncertainty caused by the stochastic factor in the bootstrapping process. The elaborate analysis of the result reveals that it is feasible to rank power units with the proposed evaluation model. Furthermore, it is beneficial to synthesize the updated multiple criteria in optimizing the power generating priority of coal-fired power units. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]