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Increasingly, agricultural land managers are seeking new approaches for understanding the potential challenges posed by sediment connectivity across catchments from source to sink, and implications for delivery of ecosystem services determined by the condition of natural capital assets. Connectivity indices have been frequently applied in the calculation of risk in spatial and temporal assessment frameworks, and tools which facilitate rapid modelling and mapping of soil erosion risk using broad-scale environmental data are therefore of considerable interest. One such indicative tool is SCIMAP (Sensitive Catchment Integrated Mapping and Analysis Platform), which highlights where sediment runoff is likely to occur and be delivered to a watercourse by simulating the generation of saturation-excess overland flow. In this paper, we examine the utility of SCIMAP for exploring the changing nature of soil erosion risk as a function of land use change in the lower Rother catchment in West Sussex, southern England through the formulation of a suite of foresight scenarios informed by knowledge of historical land cover conditions and current management practice. The study area has previously been investigated at the field scale in terms of locating and quantifying sources of erosion and areas where in-stream sedimentation manifests. Output risk values from all simulations were quantified, mapped and compared to highlight areas of greatest/lowest risk. An area was identified immediately north of the main Rother channel that consistently exhibited greatest risk across each land cover scenario. We explore (i) the spatial and temporal variation in modelled risk and (ii) the utility value of SCIMAP for agricultural land-managers and policy-makers in generating robust risk estimates of soil erosion and in-stream sedimentation, and challenges with model verification in a foresight context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Objectives: Research evidence suggests that exposure to ambient air pollutants can adversely affect the growth and development of the foetus and infant survival. Much less is known regarding the potential for an association between black smoke air pollution and stillbirth risk. This potential association was examined using data from the historical cohort UK Particulate Matter and Perinatal Events Research (PAMPER) study. Methods: Using data from paper-based neonatal records from the two major maternity hospitals in Newcastle upon Tyne (UK), a birth record database of all singletons born during 1961–1992 to mothers resident in the city was constructed. Weekly black smoke levels were obtained from routine data recorded at 20 air pollution monitoring stations over the study period. A two-stage statistical modelling strategy was used, incorporating temporally and spatially varying covariates to estimate black smoke exposure during each trimester and for the whole pregnancy period for each individual pregnancy. Conditional logistic regression models, with stratification on year of birth, were used to assess potential associations between black smoke exposures in pregnancy and stillbirth risk. Results: The PAMPER database consists of 90,537 births, between 1962 and 1992, with complete gestational age and residential address information, of which 812 were stillborn. There was no association between black smoke exposures in any trimester or across whole pregnancy and risk of stillbirth. Adjustment for potential confounders did not alter these results. Conclusions: While black smoke in pregnancy is likely to be related to other pregnancy outcomes, our findings do not suggest that black smoke air pollution exposure during pregnancy increases the risk of stillbirth. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]