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SARS-CoV-2 superspreading occurs when transmission is highly efficient and/or an individual infects many others, contributing to rapid spread. To better quantify heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 transmission, particularly superspreading, we performed a systematic review of transmission events with data on secondary attack rates or contact tracing of individual index cases published before September 2021 prior to the emergence of variants of concern and widespread vaccination. We reviewed 592 distinct events and 9,883 index cases from 491 papers. A meta-analysis of secondary attack rates identified substantial heterogeneity across 12 chosen event types/settings, with the highest transmission (25-35%) in co-living situations including households, nursing homes, and other congregate housing. Among index cases, 67% reported zero secondary cases and only 3% (287) infected >5 secondary cases ("superspreaders"). Index case demographic data were limited, with only 55% of individuals reporting age, sex, symptoms, real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) cycle threshold values, or total contacts. With the data available, we identified a higher percentage of superspreaders among symptomatic individuals, individuals aged 49-64 years, and individuals with over 100 total contacts. Addressing gaps in the literature regarding transmission events and contact tracing is needed to properly explain the heterogeneity in transmission and facilitate control efforts for SARS-CoV-2 and other infections.

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is a major cause of acute jaundice in South Asia. Gaps in our understanding of transmission are driven by non-specific symptoms and scarcity of diagnostics, impeding rational control strategies. In this context, serological data can provide important proxy measures of infection. We enrolled a population-representative serological cohort of 2,337 individuals in Sitakunda, Bangladesh. We estimated the annual risks of HEV infection and seroreversion both using serostatus changes between paired serum samples collected 9 months apart, and by fitting catalytic models to the age-stratified cross-sectional seroprevalence. At baseline, 15% (95 CI: 14-17%) of people were seropositive, with seroprevalence highest in the relatively urban south. During the study, 27 individuals seroreverted (annual seroreversion risk: 15%, 95 CI: 10-21%), and 38 seroconverted (annual infection risk: 3%, 95CI: 2-5%). Relying on cross-sectional seroprevalence data alone, and ignoring seroreversion, underestimated the annual infection risk five-fold (0.6%, 95 CrI: 0.5-0.6%). When we accounted for the observed seroreversion in a reversible catalytic model, infection risk was more consistent with measured seroincidence. Our results quantify HEV infection risk in Sitakunda and highlight the importance of accounting for seroreversion when estimating infection incidence from cross-sectional seroprevalence data.

Drinking raw date palm sap is the primary route of Nipah virus (NiV) transmission from bats to people in Bangladesh; subsequent person-to-person transmission is common. During December 2010 to March 2011, we investigated NiV epidemiology by interviewing cases using structured questionnaires, in-depth interviews, and group discussions to collect clinical and exposure histories. We conducted a case-control study to identify risk factors for transmission. We identified 43 cases; 23 were laboratory-confirmed and 20 probable. Thirty-eight (88%) cases died. Drinking raw date palm sap and contact with an infected person were major risk factors; one healthcare worker was infected and for another case transmission apparently occurred through contact with a corpse. In absence of these risk factors, apparent routes of transmission included drinking fermented date palm sap. For the first time, a case was detected in eastern Bangladesh. Identification of new epidemiological characteristics emphasizes the importance of continued NiV surveillance and case investigation.

This paper explores the utility of cluster- and case-based surveillance established in government hospitals in Bangladesh to detect Nipah virus, a stage III zoonotic pathogen. Physicians listed meningo-encephalitis cases in the 10 surveillance hospitals and identified a cluster when ⩾2 cases who lived within 30 min walking distance of one another developed symptoms within 3 weeks of each other. Physicians collected blood samples from the clustered cases. As part of case-based surveillance, blood was collected from all listed meningo-encephalitis cases in three hospitals during the Nipah season (January-March). An investigation team visited clustered cases' communities to collect epidemiological information and blood from the living cases. We tested serum using Nipah-specific IgM ELISA. Up to September 2011, in 5887 listed cases, we identified 62 clusters comprising 176 encephalitis cases. We collected blood from 127 of these cases. In 10 clusters, we identified a total of 62 Nipah cases: 18 laboratory-confirmed and 34 probable. We identified person-to-person transmission of Nipah virus in four clusters. From case-based surveillance, we identified 23 (4%) Nipah cases. Faced with thousands of encephalitis cases, integrated cluster surveillance allows targeted deployment of investigative resources to detect outbreaks by stage III zoonotic pathogens in resource-limited settings.

In February 2007 an outbreak of Nipah virus (NiV) encephalitis in Thakurgaon District of northwest Bangladesh affected seven people, three of whom died. All subsequent cases developed illness 7-14 days after close physical contact with the index case while he was ill. Cases were more likely than controls to have been in the same room (100% vs. 9.5%, OR undefined, P<0.001) and to have touched him (83% vs. 0%, OR undefined, P<0.001). Although the source of infection for the index case was not identified, 50% of Pteropus bats sampled from near the outbreak area 1 month after the outbreak had antibodies to NiV confirming the presence of the virus in the area. The outbreak was spread by person-to-person transmission. Risk of NiV infection in family caregivers highlights the need for infection control practices to limit transmission of potentially infectious body secretions.