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In November 2017, eight confirmed measles cases were reported to Public Health England from a hospital in the West Midlands. A multidisciplinary Incident Management Team (IMT) was established to determine the extent of the problem and coordinate an outbreak response. Between 1 November 2017 and 4 June 2018, a total of 116 confirmed and 21 likely measles cases were linked to this outbreak; just under half (43%) were aged over 15 years of age. Fifty-five of the confirmed cases were hospitalised (48%) and no deaths were reported. At the start of the outbreak, cases were mostly individuals of Romanian origin; the outbreak subsequently spread to the wider population. Over the 8-month response, the IMT conducted the following control measures: extensive contact tracing, immediate provision of post-exposure prophylaxis, community engagement amongst specific high-risk groups, MMR awareness raising including catch-up campaigns and enhanced vaccination services at selected GP surgeries. Key challenges to the effective control measures included language difficulties limiting community engagement; delays in diagnosis, notification and appropriate isolation of cases; limited resources for contact tracing across multiple high-risk settings (including GPs and hospitals) and lack of timely data on vaccine coverage in sub-groups of the population to guide public health action.

We describe and analyse an outbreak of measles that affected Belgium early 2017. In total, 289 cases were reported, mostly (53%) in people 15 years or older. For 133 (46%) vaccination status was unknown and a further 117 (41%) were not vaccinated. According to national guidelines, 83 of the unvaccinated cases (29% of total cases) should have received minimum one dose of vaccine, but did not. One in five cases (21%) did not present with the classical triad of fever, rash and any of coryza, conjunctivitis or cough. Rash was the most sensitive symptom, being absent in only six cases. A large proportion of cases (125/289, 43%) required hospitalisation. In hospitalised patients, the most commonly observed complications were hepatic disorders (present in 58/125 hospitalised patients, 46%). Thirty-six of the cases (12%) were in healthcare workers and nosocomial spread contributed importantly to the outbreak. Older age at presentation, altered clinical presentations and presence of complications like hepatitis can delay the correct diagnosis of measles. Clinicians should maintain a high index of suspicion in any individual presenting with rash. If the elimination target is to be reached, catch-up vaccination campaigns should be intensified and target young adults and health care workers.

In September 2016, an imported case of measles in Edinburgh in a university student resulted in a further 17 confirmed cases during October and November 2016. All cases were genotype D8 and were associated with a virus strain most commonly seen in South East Asia. Twelve of the 18 cases were staff or students at a university in Edinburgh and 17 cases had incomplete or unknown measles mumps rubella (MMR) vaccination status. The public health response included mass follow-up of all identified contacts, widespread communications throughout universities in Edinburgh and prompt vaccination clinics at affected campuses. Imported cases of measles pose a significant risk to university student cohorts who may be undervaccinated, include a large number of international students and have a highly mobile population. Public health departments should work closely with universities to promote MMR uptake and put in place mass vaccination plans to prevent rapidly spreading measles outbreaks in higher educational settings in future.

Recently, a number of outbreaks of measles and mumps have occurred within the UK and Europe. Healthcare workers (HCWs) are at risk of contracting and transmitting disease to patients and staff. To examine this risk at the point of entry to healthcare, we assessed the serological results of new HCWs presenting for pre-placement clearance without evidence of measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) immunity between 1 April 2010 and 31 March 2012. Overall rates of serological positivity to MMR across all age groups were 88·2%, 68·8% and 93·9%, respectively. With regard to measles and mumps, there were statistically significant decreases in the percentage of HCWs born after 1980 that had positive serology (P < 0·05). No such differences were seen between healthcare groups. Most seronegative HCWs accepted MMR vaccination. Despite our entry-level findings, the ongoing risk of a MMR outbreak within this cohort of HCWs appears low.

Between April and July 2011 there was an outbreak of measles virus, genotype D4, in Berlin, Germany. We identified 73 case-patients from the community and among students of an anthroposophic school, who participated in a 4-day school trip, as well as their family and friends. Overall, 27% were aged ≥ 20 years, 57% were female and 15% were hospitalized. Of 39 community case-patients, 38% were aged ≥ 20 years, 67% were female and 63% required hospitalization. Unvaccinated students returning from the school trip were excluded from school, limiting transmission. Within the group of 55 school-trip participants, including 20 measles case-patients, a measles vaccine effectiveness of 97.1% (95% confidence interval 83.4-100) for two doses was estimated using exact Poisson regression. Our findings support school exclusions and the recommendation of one-dose catch-up vaccination for everyone born after 1970 with incomplete or unknown vaccination status, in addition to the two-dose routine childhood immunization recommendation.

This study examined the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of measles in Wenzhou, China. From 2000 to 2010, a total of 13271 measles cases were reported in Wenzhou, with epidemics occurring every 3-4 years. Forty-five per cent of the cases were aged <1 year and 27.2% were aged >14 years. Of 2262 hospitalized measles cases, 66.3% were diagnosed with pneumonia, and three cases died from respiratory failure. The number of measles cases of infants requiring hospitalization increased from birth to age 8 months and declined thereafter. Measurement of serum measles antibody levels in normal infants indicates that over 80% of infants in Wenzhou may be susceptible to measles by age 6 months. The existence of a sufficient pool of unvaccinated children and the decreased level of passively transferred measles antibodies in infants from vaccinated mothers contributed to the sustained transmission observed in Wenzhou.

Though largely controlled in developed countries, measles remains a major global public health issue. Regional and local transmission patterns are rooted in human mixing behaviour across spatial scales. Identifying spatial interactions that contribute to recurring epidemics helps define and predict outbreak patterns. Using spatially explicit reported cases from measles outbreaks in Niger, we explored how regional variations in movement and contact patterns relate to patterns of measles incidence. Because we expected to see lower rates of re-introductions in small, compared to large, populations, we measured the population-size corrected proportion of weeks with zero cases across districts to understand relative rates of measles re-introductions. We found that critical elements of spatial disease dynamics in Niger are agricultural seasonality, transnational contact clusters, and roads networks that facilitate host movement and connectivity. These results highlight the need to understand local patterns of seasonality, demographic characteristics, and spatial heterogeneities to inform vaccination policy.

Most cases of measles in Australia are associated with travel or acquired from travellers from overseas. This study presents a series of three secondary cases of measles acquired through contact with a case of infectious measles acquired in China. Two of the cases were fully immunized siblings sitting eight rows behind the index case on a 4(1/2)-h flight from Singapore. The third case was acquired in the airport where the index case was in transit. The report highlights the travel-associated risk of measles and discusses the heredity of vaccine-induced measles immunity.

A mathematical model was used to evaluate the impact of the Italian Measles National Elimination Plan (NEP), and possible sources of failure in achieving its targets. The model considered two different estimates of force of infection, and the possible effect on measles transmission of the current Italian demographic situation, characterized by a below-replacement fertility. Results suggest that reaching all NEP targets will allow measles elimination to be achieved. In addition, the model suggests that achieving elimination by reaching a 95 % first-dose coverage appears unlikely; and that conducting catch-up activities, reaching high vaccination coverage, could interrupt virus circulation, but could not prevent the infection re-emerging before 2020. Also, the introduction of the second dose of measles vaccine seems necessary for achieving and maintaining elimination. Furthermore, current Italian demography appears to be favourable for reaching elimination.

We undertook a representative survey of measles antibodies in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 1994, to characterize immunity and transmission. Specific-antibody levels (IU/l) were determined by ELISA for 4654 sera from individuals aged 0-49 years (1805 < 15 years) collected by stratified household-cluster sampling. The proportion seronegative (< 100 IU/l) was 20% (95% CI: 16-25) in children 9-59 months old, declining to 9% (7-12) in 5-9 year olds, 5% (4-7) in 10-14 year olds, and < 1% in adults. The proportion of children (< 15 years old) with low-level antibody (100-255 IU/l) was 8% (7-10). Vaccination and an absence of a history of measles illness were strongly associated with low-level antibody. History of measles vaccination in 9 months to 14-year-old children was approximately 80%. We estimate a primary vaccine failure rate of 21% (12-34) and continued high measles incidence of 22 per 100 susceptibles (19-24) per annum. Our data support the introduction of campaign vaccination in the city in 1998, although higher routine vaccine coverage is required to sustain the impact. The implications of a high prevalence of low-level antibody are discussed.

The objective of this study is to estimate the measles reproduction ratio for eight Western European vaccination programmes. Because many plausible age-structured transmission patterns result in a similar description of the observations, it is not possible to estimate a unique value of the reproduction ratio. A method is developed to estimate bounds and confidence intervals for plausible values of the reproduction ratios using maximum likelihood methods. Lower and upper bounds for plausible values of the basic reproduction ratio are estimated to be 7.17 (95% CI 7.14-7.20) and 45.41 (95% CI 9.77-49.57), corresponding to lower and upper bounds on critical vaccine coverage of 86.6% and 98.1%. Of the eight evaluated vaccination programmes, four have vaccine coverage below the lower bound and allow measles to persist, and four have vaccine coverage at the upper bound and may eventually eliminate measles.

We describe the epidemiology of the first nationwide outbreak of measles infection in the UK since the implementation of a mass vaccination campaign. Notifications of infectious diseases, interview and postal questionnaire identified 293 clinical cases, 138 of which were confirmed by salivary IgM, measles virus isolation and PCR. Twelve were epidemiologically linked to confirmed cases. The outbreak began in London, after contact with measles infection probably imported from Italy. Measles genotyping determined by sequence analysis confirmed spread to other unimmunized anthroposophic communities in the north, south west and south coast of England. Only two cases had been vaccinated against measles infection, and 90% of cases were aged under 15 years. Measles virus can selectively target non-immune groups in countries with high vaccine uptake and broader herd immunity. Without harmonization of vaccination policies and uniform high coverage across Europe, the importation and spread of measles virus amongst non-immune groups may prevent the elimination of measles.

From March to July 1996 a measles outbreak occurred in northern Luxembourg with 110 reported cases centered around two primary schools (85 cases) and the surrounding community (25 cases). Eighty four suspected cases were confirmed serologically. Vaccine coverage was estimated from questionnaire-based surveys at the two primary schools to be 70 and 76%, respectively. Vaccine efficacy during the outbreak was estimated to be 94.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 90.4-97.0]. Using the information from the, school surveys, we obtained estimates of the basic reproduction number of measles of 7.7 (95% CI 4.4-11.0) and 6.2 (95% CI 3.5-8.9), respectively. Assuming a 95% vaccine efficacy, these estimates correspond to minimal vaccine coverages of 91.6% (95% CI 81.4-95.7) and 88.3% (95% CI 75.5-93.4) which would have been necessary to minimize the chances of a major outbreak occurring. We can confirm that major outbreaks in similar school settings can only be prevented if vaccination coverage exceeds 90%.

A mathematical model of the dynamics of measles in New Zealand was developed in 1996. The model successfully predicted an epidemic in 1997 and was instrumental in the decision to carry out an intensive MMR (measles-mumps rubella) immunization campaign in that year. While the epidemic began some months earlier than anticipated, it was rapidly brought under control, and its impact on the population was much reduced. In order to prevent the occurrence of further epidemics in New Zealand, an extended version of the model has since been developed and applied to the critical question of the optimal timing of MMR immunization.

We analysed nation-wide reported measles cases during the 1988-9 epidemic and found that longer duration and wider spread were two major characteristics of the outbreak. All the 22 county/city index cases were reported with a delay of > 4 days and 64% were aged 5-14 years. This epidemic occurred mainly among 5-14-year-old school-children (59%), infants under 1 year (19%), and pre-school children (18%). The overall attack rate was 0.63 cases per 10,000 population, with the highest attack rate (7.4 cases per 10,000 population) occurring in infants. Among 280 confirmed cases < 15 months of age, 9-month-old infants (42 cases) had a higher risk of measles and peaked at 10 months (49 cases). This epidemic started in March 1988 among 5-9-year-old children in the northern suburban area, then spread to Taipei City and neighbouring counties or cities. It continued to spread from the northern to southern and western areas during the summer vacation and New Year holidays. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that the delay of measles reporting was strongly associated with the cases infected early in the epidemic (OR = 6.9, P < 0.001) and reported from teaching hospitals (OR = 2.6, P < 0.001). The reappearance of high attack rates among 5-9-year-old children in the 1985 and 1988-9 measles epidemics in Taiwan indicated the persistence of pockets of susceptible individuals even after mass immunization.

Studies from developing countries suggest that persons with household-acquired (HA) measles are at greater risk of severe illness than persons with community-acquired (CA) infection. Reported measles cases occurring among Milwaukee residents from May 1989 to June 1990 were used to assess whether household-acquisition was a risk factor for severe measles in the United States. A case was classified as HA if onset of rash occurred 7-18 days after onset of rash in another case in the same household. Hospitalization rates were similar for 128 patients with HA measles (27%) and for 1004 patients with CA measles (26%). Multiple logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between hospitalization and household-acquisition after controlling for socioeconomic status, measles vaccination history, age, race, and date of onset of rash. Patients with HA measles were no more likely to be hospitalized than patients with CA measles (odds ratio 0.9, 95% confidence interval 0.6, 1.5). HA measles cases were not more severe than CA measles cases during this urban outbreak in the United States.

This paper presents a review of published data concerning the epidemiology of measles in developing countries. Simple mathematical models provide a framework for data analysis and interpretation. The analyses highlight differences and similarities in the patterns of transmission of the measles virus in developed and developing countries. Whilst the rate of loss of maternally derived immunity to measles is broadly similar, the average age at infection is much lower, and case fatality rates are much higher in developing countries. Data analysis also serves to illustrate inter-relationships between different kinds of epidemiological data. Thus, for example, in order to correctly interpret an age stratified serological profile from a developing country it is necessary to have information on the rate of decay of maternal antibodies and age specific case fatality rates. To determine the probable impact of a given vaccination programme, information on the birth rate in the community concerned is also required. A discussion is given of the epidemiological data required in order to effectively design a community based vaccination programme aimed at the eradication of measles.