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Individuals with subclinical atrial fibrillation (AF) face an increased risk of thromboembolic events, which may potentially be mitigated through AF screening and subsequent anticoagulation. However, data from randomized clinical trials (RCTs) indicate a lower stroke risk in subclinical AF compared with the clinical phenotype. This—along with the inherent bleeding risk related to anticoagulation—seems to render the net clinical benefit of AF screening less evident. Further, current guidelines recommend consideration of CHA2DS2-VASc score and AF episode duration to guide screening and treatment. These recommendations, in general, lack support and seem questionable in view of the limited RCT data. More evidence is warranted to provide insights into the potential benefits of screening and treatment of screen-detected AF in specific population subgroups and AF phenotypes.

A budget impact analysis estimates the short-term difference between the cost of the current treatment strategy and a new treatment strategy, in this case to implement population screening for atrial fibrillation (AF). The aim of this study is to estimate the financial impact of implementing population-based AF-screening of 75-year-olds compared with the current setting of no screening from a healthcare payer perspective in eight European countries. The net budget impact of AF-screening was estimated in country-specific settings for Denmark, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Serbia, Spain, and Sweden. Country-specific parameters were used to allow for variations in healthcare systems and to reflect the healthcare sector in the country of interest. Similar results can be seen in all countries AF-screening incurs savings of stroke-related costs since AF treatment reduces the number of strokes. However, the increased number of detected AF and higher drug acquisition will increase the drug costs as well as the costs of physician- and control visits. The net budget impact per invited varied from €10 in Ireland to €122 in the Netherlands. The results showed the increased costs of implementing AF-screening were mainly driven by increased drug costs and screening costs. In conclusion, across Europe, though the initial cost of screening and more frequent use of oral anti-coagulants will increase the healthcare payers’ costs, introducing population screening for AF will result in savings of stroke-related costs.

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