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Abstract Introduction There have been no reports about predicting survival of patients with advanced cancer constructed entirely with objective variables. We aimed to develop a prognostic model based on laboratory findings and vital signs using a fractional polynomial (FP) model. Methods A multicentre prospective cohort study was conducted at 58 specialist palliative care services in Japan from September 2012 to April 2014. Eligible patients were older than 20 years and had advanced cancer. We developed models for predicting 7-day, 14-day, 30-day, 56-day and 90-day survival by using the FP modelling method. Results Data from 1039 patients were analysed to develop each prognostic model (Objective Prognostic Index for advanced cancer [OPI-AC]). All models included the heart rate, urea and albumin, while some models included the respiratory rate, creatinine, C-reactive protein, lymphocyte count, neutrophil count, total bilirubin, lactate dehydrogenase and platelet/lymphocyte ratio. The area under the curve was 0.77, 0.81, 0.90, 0.90 and 0.92 for the 7-day, 14-day, 30-day, 56-day and 90-day model, respectively. The accuracy of the OPI-AC predicting 30-day, 56-day and 90-day survival was significantly higher than that of the Palliative Prognostic Score or the Prognosis in Palliative Care Study model, which are based on a combination of symptoms and physician estimation. Conclusion We developed highly accurate prognostic indexes for predicting the survival of patients with advanced cancer from objective variables alone, which may be useful for end-of-life management. The FP modelling method could be promising for developing other prognostic models in future research. Highlights • We developed a prognostic index that required only laboratory data and vital signs. • Survival of advanced cancer patients can be predicted without a physician's assessments. • Our prognostic index was more accurate than existing predictive tools. • Our prognostic index could minimize attrition rates of clinical trials. • Fractional polynomials model is a promising way to develop prognostic indexes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim The aim of this study is to firmly delineate temporal and age trends regarding sex discrepancies in cancer risk and survival as well as quantifying the potential gain achieved by eliminating this inequality. Methods We performed a population-based cohort study using data on all adult incident cancer cases (n = 872,397) recorded in the Swedish Cancer Register in 1970–2014. To assess the associations between sex and cancer risk and sex and survival, male-to-female incidence rate ratios (IRRs) and excess mortality ratios (EMRs) adjusted for age and year of diagnosis were estimated using Poisson regression. Results Men were at increased risk for 34 of 39 and had poorer prognosis for 27 of 39 cancers. Women were at increased risk for 5 of 39 and had significantly poorer survival for 2 of 39 cancers. IRRs among male predominant sites ranged from 1.05; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.03–-1.1 (lung adenocarcinoma) to 8.0; 95% CI, 7.5–8.5 (larynx). EMRs among sites with male survival disadvantage ranged from 1.1; 95% CI, 1.03–1.1 (colon) to 2.1; 95% CI, 1.5–-2.8 (well-differentiated thyroid). Conclusion Male sex is associated with increased risk and poorer survival for most cancer sites. Identifying and eliminating factors driving the observed sex differences may reduce the global cancer burden. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction A number of phase I immunotherapy trials for cancer patients incorporate the absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) as an inclusion criteria. This study aims to assess whether ALC is associated with a lack of response to anti-PD-1/PD-L1 in early clinical trials. Methods All consecutive patients treated with anti-PD-1/PD-L1 monotherapy in phase I trials in our institution between December 2011 and January 2014 were reviewed. Baseline ALC, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), Royal-Marsden Hospital (RMH) prognostic score, objective response rate (ORR) and disease control rate (DCR = SD + PR + CR, stable disease (SD), partial response (PR), complete response (CR)) defined by Response Evaluation Criteria In Solid Tumours (RECIST) version 1.1 were retrieved. Results Out of a total of 167 patients, 48 (28.7%) and 8 patients (4.8%) had baseline ALCs of <1 G/l and <0.5 G/l, respectively. The RECIST change (%) was not correlated with ALC (G/l) (Spearman's rho = −0.06, P = 0.43). We did not observe any difference in terms of ORR (8.3% versus 15.1%, P = 0.32) or of DCR (58.3% versus 61.3%, P = 0.73) between patients with ALC <1 G/l versus >1 G/l. When using 0.5 G/l as ALC threshold, we did not find any difference either in ORR or in DCR. In a multivariate Cox regression analysis, baseline ALC was not associated with overall survival, whereas the RMH and the number of previous lines of treatment remained independent prognostic factors. Conclusions Baseline ALC was not associated with response to anti-PD-1/PD-L1 in cancer patients enrolled in phase I trials. Patients should not be excluded from early phase clinical trials testing immune checkpoints blockers because of ALC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Clinician prediction of survival (CPS) has low accuracy in the advanced cancer setting, raising the need for prediction models such as the palliative prognostic (PaP) score that includes a transformed CPS (PaP-CPS) and five clinical/laboratory variables (PaP-without CPS). However, it is unclear if the PaP score is more accurate than PaP-CPS, and whether PaP-CPS helps to improve the accuracy of PaP score. We compared the accuracy among PaP-CPS, PaP-without CPS and PaP-total score in patients with advanced cancer. Patients and methods In this prospective study, PaP score was documented in hospitalised patients seen by palliative care. We compared the discrimination of PaP-CPS versus PaP-total and PaP-without CPS versus PaP-total using four indices: concordance statistics, area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC), net reclassification index and integrated discrimination improvement for 30-day survival and 100-day survival. Results A total of 216 patients were enrolled with a median survival of 109 d (95% confidence interval [CI] 71–133 d). The AUC for 30-day survival was 0.57 (95% CI 0.47–0.67) for PaP-CPS, 0.78 (95% CI 0.7–0.87) for PaP-without CPS, and 0.73 (95% CI 0.64–0.82) for PaP-total score. PaP-total was significantly more accurate than PaP-CPS according to all four indices for both 30-day and 100-day survival (P < 0.001). PaP-without CPS was significantly more accurate than PaP-total for 30-day survival (P < 0.05). Conclusion We found that PaP score was more accurate than CPS, and the addition of CPS to the prognostic model reduced its accuracy. This study highlights the limitations of clinical gestalt and the need to use objective prognostic factors and models for survival prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Body composition plays an important role in predicting treatment outcomes in adults with cancer. Using existing computed tomographic (CT) cross-sectional imaging and readily available software, the assessment of skeletal muscle mass to evaluate sarcopenia has become simplified. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to quantify the prognostic value of skeletal muscle index (SMI) obtained from cross-sectional CT imaging on clinical outcomes in non-haematologic solid tumours. Methods We searched PubMed and the American Society Clinical Oncology online database of meeting abstracts up to October 2015 for relevant studies. We included studies assessing the prognostic impact of pre-treatment SMI on clinical outcomes in patients with non-haematologic solid tumours. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS) and the secondary outcomes included cancer-specific survival (CSS), disease-free survival (DFS), and progression-free survival (PFS). The summary hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated. Results A total of 7843 patients from 38 studies were included. SMI lower than the cut-off was associated with poor OS (HR = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.32–1.56, p < 0.001). The effect of SMI on OS was observed among various tumour types and across disease stages. Worse CSS was also associated with low SMI (HR = 1.93, 95% CI = 1.38–2.70, p < 0.001) as well as DFS (HR = 1.16, 95% CI = 1.00–1.30, p = 0.014), but not PFS (HR = 1.54, 95% CI = 0.90–2.64, p = 0.117). Conclusions This meta-analysis demonstrates that low SMI at cancer diagnosis is associated with worse survival in patients with solid tumours. Further research into understanding and mitigating the negative effects of sarcopenia in adults with cancer is needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Central nervous system (CNS) metastases represent a devastating complication for advanced breast cancer patients. This observational study examines the influence of patient, tumour and treatment characteristics on overall survival after synchronous or metachronous CNS metastases. Methods Information on 992 breast cancer patients with CNS metastases (whose primary tumour was diagnosed between 2004 and 2010) was retrieved from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (NCR). Overall survival was calculated from the date of CNS metastatic diagnosis, and the impact of prognostic factors on survival was assessed using univariate and multivariate extended Cox-regression models. Results We identified 165 patients with synchronous and 827 patients with metachronous CNS metastases. The majority of patients (88%) presented with brain metastases only, 12% had leptomeningeal metastases. Overall median survival was 5.0 months. Non-triple-negative breast cancer and systemic therapy were associated with improved survival in both groups. In patients with synchronous CNS metastases, surgery for the primary tumour and the metastases also improved survival. In patients with metachronous metastases, younger age (<50 years), lower initial tumour stage (I), ductal carcinoma, a prolonged time interval until diagnosis of CNS metastasis (>1 year), and absence of extracranial metastases were associated with improved survival. Metastasectomy and radiation therapy did not provide benefit beyond the first six months. Conclusions No difference in survival was established between synchronous and metachronous CNS metastases. Triple-negative disease is prognostically unfavourable in both groups, while those receiving treatment have a better outcome. Metastasectomy and radiotherapy improve survival within the first six months, and additional benefit may be derived from systemic therapy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

SMIP-016, a new anti-tumour agent, is a mouse/human chimeric fusion protein built on the ADAPTIR™ (modular protein therapeutic) platform targeting human CD37. In this study, for the first time, we examined pro-apoptotic activity of SMIP-016 in combination with monoclonal anti-CD20 antibody, ofatumumab (HuMax-CD20) in de novo chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) cells and in different B-cell neoplasm-derived lines. In CLL cells SMIP-016 exerted significant cytotoxicity (versus control – p = 0.01). In the in vitro models, SMIP-016 was also distinctly active against Raji line (Burkitt lymphoma; BL) (versus control – p = 0.007), Riva-1 line (diffuse large B-cell lymphoma; DLBCL) (versus control – p = 0.002) and RPMI 8226 line (multiple myeloma cells; MM) (versus control – p = 0.03). In studies combining SMIP-016 and ofatumumab, the cytotoxicity against CLL cells was significantly higher than the agents used alone ( p < 0.03). Remarkably enhanced cytotoxic activity of SMIP-016 and ofatumumab in combination was also observed in Raji and Riva-1 cell lines ( p < 0.01 and p < 0.003, respectively). Importantly, both agents induced cytotoxicity at very low concentrations which suggests that potential side-effects may be decreased in clinical practice. The mechanism responsible for cytotoxicity of SMIP-016 in all the examined models was connected with caspase-dependent apoptosis. In majority of cell types SMIP-016 induced overexpression of Bax protein, as well as downregulation of Bcl-2, cIAP1 ( p < 0.03) and Smac/DIABLO ( p < 0.003) apoptosis-regulating proteins. In conclusion, our study demonstrated high pro-apoptotic activity of SMIP-016, especially in combination with ofatumumab, against ex vivo CLL cells, and BL or DLBCL in vitro cell lines. Thus, further preclinical studies in in vivo models are warranted, as this combination may be a promising therapeutic concept for treatment of those malignancies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Purpose: Progressive disease (PD) per Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumours (RECIST) 1.1 is defined as growth of measurable target lesions, presence of new lesions or unequivocal progression of non-target disease. In this manuscript we explored whether a more refined categorisation of tumour response and/or these components of progression, varying over time, can improve prediction of overall survival (OS) in the RECIST database. Methods: Data were randomly selected from 13 randomised clinical trials (3758 patients with breast, lung or colorectal cancer). A maximum of five target lesions contributed to the sum of longest diameters. At each measurement time we determined: best target response as best % improvement from baseline; tumour growth of target lesions as worst % change and worst rate of increase (mm/week) from nadir; presence of new lesions and occurrence of non-target PD. OS was analysed by tumour type using Cox regression, adjusting for baseline sum and including these parameters as time-dependent covariates. Results: 36% of patients had new lesions, 28% non-target PD and 49% experienced target lesion growth (median strongest growth 1.5mm/week). Regardless of tumour type, presence of new lesions (hazard ratio (HR) ranging 1.5–2.3) and non-target PD (HR 1.5–2.0) were strongly associated with worse OS. The explanatory value of tumour growth for OS was low compared to the other components. Conclusion: Modelling target lesion tumour growth did not show a marked improvement in OS prediction over and above the other components. These analyses enable a better understanding of the role of each component in PD evaluation. Work is ongoing to incorporate this information into an updated version of RECIST with enhanced prediction of subsequent survival. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Background: Vasculogenic mimicry (VM) has been reported in various malignant tumours and is known to play an important role in cancer progression and metastasis. However, the impact of VM on the overall survival of human cancer patients remains controversial. The goal of this study was to evaluate whether VM is associated with 5-year survival of human cancer patients. Methods: Twenty-two eligible clinical studies with data on both tumour cell-dominant VM and the 5-year survival of 3062 patients involved in 15 types of cancers were pooled in the meta-analysis. Results: The 5-year overall survival of VM-positive and -negative cancer patients was 31% and 56%, respectively. The relative risk (RR) of the 5-year survival of VM-positive patients was significantly higher than that of VM-negative cases (RR=1.531; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.357–1.726; P <0.001). Notably, metastatic melanoma patients demonstrated a higher VM rate (45.3%) than patients with primary melanoma (23.1%) and showed worse 5-year survival, suggesting that VM contributes to tumour metastasis and poor prognosis in cancer patients. Subgroup analysis indicated that a poor 5-year survival was significantly associated with eight types of VM-positive malignant tumours, such as lung, colon, liver cancers, sarcomas and melanoma; but was not associated with the seven other types of cancers, such as prostate cancer. Heterogeneity and publication biases were found among the 22 studies, mainly due to the divergent characteristics of cancers and extremely low survival rate in six types of malignant tumours. Conclusion: VM-positive cancer patients show a poor 5-year overall survival compared with VM-negative malignant tumour cases, particularly in metastatic cancer. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Background: Previous studies have reported a poor outcome for synovial sarcoma patients whose tumours relapse. Methods: This study analysed 44 relapsing cases in a series of 118 consecutive patients <21yr of age with non-metastatic synovial sarcoma prospectively enrolled in Italian paediatric protocols between 1979 and 2006. In an effort to identify a possible risk-adapted stratification enabling a better planning of second-line treatment, the relapsing patients’ outcome was analysed vis-à-vis their clinical picture at onset, first-line treatments, clinical findings at the time of first relapse and second-line treatment modalities. Results: The first event was a local recurrence in only 15 cases, and metastatic in 29 (associated with local relapse too in 7 cases). The time to relapse ranged from 4 to 108months (median 20months). Overall survival was 29.7% and 21.0% five and ten years after relapsing, respectively. The variables influencing survival were the timing and type of relapse (combined) and the chances of a secondary remission, which correlated strongly with the feasibility of complete surgery. Conclusions: Our study confirmed a largely unsatisfactory prognosis after recurrences in children and adolescents with synovial sarcoma: the chances of survival can be estimated on the basis of several variables for the purposes of planning risk-adapted salvage protocols. An aggressive surgical approach should be recommended. New effective systemic agents are warranted, and experimental therapies can be offered to patients with little chance of salvage. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: We hypothesised that host-related markers, possibly reflecting tumour aggressiveness, such as circulating endothelial cells (CEC) and circulating VEGFR2+ bone marrow-derived (BMD) progenitor cells, could have prognostic value in patients with advanced cancer enrolled in early anticancer drug development trials. Baseline CECs (CD45–CD31+CD146+7AAD– cells) and circulating VEGFR2+-BMD progenitor cells (defined as CD45dimCD34+VEGFR2+7AAD– cells) were measured by flow-cytometry in 71 and 58 patients included in phase 1 trials testing novel anti-vascular or anti-angiogenic agents. Correlations between levels of CECs, circulating VEGFR2+-BMD progenitor cells, clinical and biological prognostic factors (i.e. the Royal Marsden Hospital (RMH) score), and overall survival (OS) were studied. The median value of CECs was 12 CEC/ml (range 0–154/ml). The median level of VEGFR2+-BMD progenitor cells was 1.3% (range 0–32.5%) of circulating BMD-CD34+ progenitors. While OS was not correlated with CEC levels, it was significantly worse in patients with high VEGFR2+-BMD progenitor levels (>1%) (median OS 9.0 versus 17.0months), and with a RMH prognostic score >0 (median OS 9.0 versus 24.2months). The prognostic value of VEGFR2+-BMD progenitor levels remained significant (hazard ratio (HR)=2.3, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.1–4.6, p =0.02) after multivariate analysis. A composite VEGFR2+-BMD progenitor level/RHM score ⩾2 was significantly associated with an increased risk of death compared to scores of 0 or 1 (median OS 9.0 versus 18.4months, HR=2.6 (95%CI, 1.2–5.8, p =0.02)). High circulating VEGFR2+-BMD progenitor levels are associated with poor prognostics and when combined to classical clinical and biological parameters could provide a new tool for patient selection in early anticancer drug trials. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]