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Abstract Aim We seek to characterize how faster tumour shrinkage rate (k) can lead to paradoxically shorter Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) time to progression ('TTP20' – tumour size exceeding its minimum by 5 mm and 20%) [1] and, therefore, progression-free survival (PFS). Specifically, we investigate under what conditions this paradoxical behaviour occurs, what fraction of patients satisfy these conditions, whether this phenomenon can invert population-level PFS hazard ratio, and consistency of an alternative time-to-event benefit metric with k. Methods We use a mathematical model treating tumour burden as decreasing drug-sensitive and increasing drug-resistant cell subpopulations. We fit this model to data from several clinical trials with different indications [2]. We simulated a more effective treatment and recorded whether patients' TTP20 increased or decreased. We performed a study-level analysis to compare the relationship of speed and depth of response with TTP20 for both the administered 'control' and simulated 'more effective' drug. We propose and test an alternative benefit metric: the model-projected time that tumour size reaches 120% of baseline (TTB120). Results Depending on indication, 3–27% of patients are estimated to have a paradoxically inverse relationship between k and TTP20. Simulated head-to-head studies show that TTP20-based PFS can favour the less effective drug. In contrast, TTB120 always favours the more effective drug. Conclusion We demonstrate the paradoxical behaviour of RECIST TTP20 – as an exemplar of percent-change-from-nadir based cancer progression criterion – both in theory and in observed patient data at the individual and trial level. We propose an alternative tumour size–based criterion (TTB120) that is directionally consistent with tumour shrinkage rate. Highlights • A Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) time to progression (TTP) criterion is tumour size exceeding 120% of its minimum. • A simple mathematical model well describes tumour response and relapse in treated patients. • Increasing tumour shrinkage rate in this model often leads to paradoxically shorter TTP. • This effect is large and frequent enough to invert population-level TTP-based outcomes. • We propose an alternative time to event metric that is consistent with shrinkage rate. Graphical abstract Image 1 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Cancer immune therapy has shown remarkable benefit in the treatment of a range of cancer types, although it may initiate autoimmune-related disorders in some patients. We have attempted to establish whether the incidence of irAEs after the use of anti–PD-1 antibodies nivolumab or pembrolizumab in advanced malignancies is associated with anti–PD-1 treatment efficacy. Patients and methods We studied patients treated with single-agent nivolumab or pembrolizumab for advanced cancer. irAEs (immune-related adverse events) were identified clinically and graded as per the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 4.0. Efficacy was evaluated with objective response rate (ORR, immune-Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumours [RECIST] criteria) progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Tests were performed to determine the association between irAEs and ORR, PFS or OS. Results We identified 106 patients. Primary diagnoses were lung cancer (n = 77), melanoma (n = 8), head and neck carcinoma (n = 7), renal carcinoma (n = 5), Hodgkin's lymphoma (n = 3), urothelial carcinoma (n = 3) and gallbladder adenocarcinoma, hepatocellular carcinoma and Merkel cell carcinoma (n = 1 each). IrAEs were observed in 40 patients (37.7%). The most frequent irAEs were hypothyroidism (n = 15), nephritis (n = 5) and hyperthyroidism (n = 4). Objective response was observed in 44 patients (41.5%), and median PFS was 5.5 months (0.5–31 months). Thirty-three of the 40 patients with irAEs had objective response (82.5%) in contrast with 11 of the 66 cases without irAEs (16.6%) (OR 23.5, P < 0.000001). PFS in patients with irAEs was 10 months and 3 months in those without irAEs (HR 2.2, P = 0.016). OS in patients with irAEs was 32 months and 22 in those without irAEs, without statistically significant differences. Conclusion In advanced cancer treated with single-agent anti–PD-1 antibodies, patients with irAEs showed a markedly improved efficacy over patients without irAEs (ORR of 82.5% and PFS of 10 months vs ORR of 16.6% and PFS of 3 months). Future studies of anti–PD-1 immune-therapy should address this association to explore the underlying biological mechanisms of efficacy. Highlights • In advanced cancer treated with anti–PD-1 antibodies nivolumab or pembrolizumab, incidence of irAEs was associated with a marked efficacy. • Response rate increased significantly from 16.6% to 82.5% when an irAE was present. • The follow-up showed an increase of PFS from 3 to 10 months when an irAE was present. • The follow-up showed an increase of OS from 22 to 32 months when an irAE was present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Introduction There have been no reports about predicting survival of patients with advanced cancer constructed entirely with objective variables. We aimed to develop a prognostic model based on laboratory findings and vital signs using a fractional polynomial (FP) model. Methods A multicentre prospective cohort study was conducted at 58 specialist palliative care services in Japan from September 2012 to April 2014. Eligible patients were older than 20 years and had advanced cancer. We developed models for predicting 7-day, 14-day, 30-day, 56-day and 90-day survival by using the FP modelling method. Results Data from 1039 patients were analysed to develop each prognostic model (Objective Prognostic Index for advanced cancer [OPI-AC]). All models included the heart rate, urea and albumin, while some models included the respiratory rate, creatinine, C-reactive protein, lymphocyte count, neutrophil count, total bilirubin, lactate dehydrogenase and platelet/lymphocyte ratio. The area under the curve was 0.77, 0.81, 0.90, 0.90 and 0.92 for the 7-day, 14-day, 30-day, 56-day and 90-day model, respectively. The accuracy of the OPI-AC predicting 30-day, 56-day and 90-day survival was significantly higher than that of the Palliative Prognostic Score or the Prognosis in Palliative Care Study model, which are based on a combination of symptoms and physician estimation. Conclusion We developed highly accurate prognostic indexes for predicting the survival of patients with advanced cancer from objective variables alone, which may be useful for end-of-life management. The FP modelling method could be promising for developing other prognostic models in future research. Highlights • We developed a prognostic index that required only laboratory data and vital signs. • Survival of advanced cancer patients can be predicted without a physician's assessments. • Our prognostic index was more accurate than existing predictive tools. • Our prognostic index could minimize attrition rates of clinical trials. • Fractional polynomials model is a promising way to develop prognostic indexes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Long-term responders have been observed with anti-programmed death 1 and anti-programmed death ligand 1 (anti-PD(L)1). Optimal duration of therapy in responding and stable disease (SD) patients is unclear with various attitudes encompassing treatment until progression disease, stopping therapy after a defined timeframe. Patients and methods We report the experience of 13 patients who discontinued immune checkpoint inhibitor in phase I trials as per protocol while experiencing a tumour-controlled disease. According to protocols, patients could restart the same immunotherapy if radiological or clinical progression occurred. Results Patients were treated for colorectal microsatellite instability–high genotype (n = 5), urothelial carcinoma (n = 3), melanoma (n = 2), non–small-cell lung cancer (n = 2) and triple-negative breast cancer (n = 1) for a median time of 12 months (range 10.6–12). Patients achieved 1 (8%) complete response, 10 (77%) partial response (PR) and 2 (15%) SD. The median progression-free survival 1 (PFS1) defined as the time from the first infusion until progression was 24.4 months (range 15.8–49). The median time free-treatment after discontinuation was 12.6 months (range 4–39.7). Eight patients experienced disease progression and were retreated. Best responses observed after rechallenging were 2 PR (25%) and 6 SD (75%). Median PFS2 defined from the first day of retreatment until disease progression or the last news was 12.9 months (range 5–35.4). No grade 3/4 events occurred during the study period. Conclusion Our data suggest that anti–PD(L)1 therapy should be resumed if progression occurs after a planned anti–PD(L)1 interruption. Further prospective studies are needed to confirm these results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective Patients with autoimmune or inflammatory disease (AID) are susceptible to immune-related adverse events (irAEs) when treated with immune check-point inhibitors (ICIs). We decided to analyse the safety and effectiveness of anti-PD-1 antibodies in AID patients and look for an association between the presence of pre-existing AID and the clinical outcome. Methods In a prospective study of the REISAMIC registry of grade ≥2 irAEs occurring in ICI-treated patients, we studied the associations between pre-existing AID on one hand and irAE-free survival, overall survival and best objective response rate on the other. Results We identified 45 patients with 53 AIDs in REISAMIC. The cancer diagnoses included melanoma (n = 36), non–small-cell lung cancer (n = 6) and others (n = 3). The most frequent pre-existing AIDs were vitiligo (n = 17), psoriasis (n = 12), thyroiditis (n = 7), Sjögren syndrome (n = 4) and rheumatoid arthritis (n = 2). Twenty patients (44.4%) presented with at least one irAE: eleven of these were associated with a pre-existing AID (‘AID flare’). Treatment with anti-PD-1 antibodies was maintained in 15 of the 20 patients with an irAE. The IrAE-free survival time was significantly shorter in AID patients (median: 5.4 months) than in AID-free patients (median: 13 months, p = 2.1 × 10 −4 ). The AID and AID-free groups did not differ significantly with regard to the overall survival time and objective response rate (p = 0.38 and 0.098, respectively). Conclusion In patients treated with anti-PD-1 antibody, pre-existing AID was associated with a significantly increased risk of irAEs. Our results indicate that cancer treatments with anti-PD-1 antibodies are just as effective in AID patients as they are in AID-free patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction A number of phase I immunotherapy trials for cancer patients incorporate the absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) as an inclusion criteria. This study aims to assess whether ALC is associated with a lack of response to anti-PD-1/PD-L1 in early clinical trials. Methods All consecutive patients treated with anti-PD-1/PD-L1 monotherapy in phase I trials in our institution between December 2011 and January 2014 were reviewed. Baseline ALC, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), Royal-Marsden Hospital (RMH) prognostic score, objective response rate (ORR) and disease control rate (DCR = SD + PR + CR, stable disease (SD), partial response (PR), complete response (CR)) defined by Response Evaluation Criteria In Solid Tumours (RECIST) version 1.1 were retrieved. Results Out of a total of 167 patients, 48 (28.7%) and 8 patients (4.8%) had baseline ALCs of <1 G/l and <0.5 G/l, respectively. The RECIST change (%) was not correlated with ALC (G/l) (Spearman's rho = −0.06, P = 0.43). We did not observe any difference in terms of ORR (8.3% versus 15.1%, P = 0.32) or of DCR (58.3% versus 61.3%, P = 0.73) between patients with ALC <1 G/l versus >1 G/l. When using 0.5 G/l as ALC threshold, we did not find any difference either in ORR or in DCR. In a multivariate Cox regression analysis, baseline ALC was not associated with overall survival, whereas the RMH and the number of previous lines of treatment remained independent prognostic factors. Conclusions Baseline ALC was not associated with response to anti-PD-1/PD-L1 in cancer patients enrolled in phase I trials. Patients should not be excluded from early phase clinical trials testing immune checkpoints blockers because of ALC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indoleamine 2,3-dioxygenase (IDO, also referred to as IDO1) has been demonstrated to be a normal endogenous mechanism of acquired peripheral immune tolerance in vivo . In the field of oncology, IDO expression and/or activity has been observed in several cancer types and has usually been associated with negative prognostic factors and worse outcome measures. This manuscript reviews current available data on the role of IDO in cancer and the current results obtained with IDO inhibition, both in animal models and in phase 1 and 2 clinical trials in humans. Preliminary results with IDO inhibitors, usually combined with other anti-cancer drugs, seem encouraging. Further studies are needed to clarify the conditions in which IDO inhibitors can be of value as an anti-cancer strategy. In addition, further research should address whether the expression of IDO in tissue or blood can be a marker to select patients who can benefit most from IDO inhibition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Central nervous system (CNS) metastases represent a devastating complication for advanced breast cancer patients. This observational study examines the influence of patient, tumour and treatment characteristics on overall survival after synchronous or metachronous CNS metastases. Methods Information on 992 breast cancer patients with CNS metastases (whose primary tumour was diagnosed between 2004 and 2010) was retrieved from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (NCR). Overall survival was calculated from the date of CNS metastatic diagnosis, and the impact of prognostic factors on survival was assessed using univariate and multivariate extended Cox-regression models. Results We identified 165 patients with synchronous and 827 patients with metachronous CNS metastases. The majority of patients (88%) presented with brain metastases only, 12% had leptomeningeal metastases. Overall median survival was 5.0 months. Non-triple-negative breast cancer and systemic therapy were associated with improved survival in both groups. In patients with synchronous CNS metastases, surgery for the primary tumour and the metastases also improved survival. In patients with metachronous metastases, younger age (<50 years), lower initial tumour stage (I), ductal carcinoma, a prolonged time interval until diagnosis of CNS metastasis (>1 year), and absence of extracranial metastases were associated with improved survival. Metastasectomy and radiation therapy did not provide benefit beyond the first six months. Conclusions No difference in survival was established between synchronous and metachronous CNS metastases. Triple-negative disease is prognostically unfavourable in both groups, while those receiving treatment have a better outcome. Metastasectomy and radiotherapy improve survival within the first six months, and additional benefit may be derived from systemic therapy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population-based cancer research is paramount for controlling cancer. Cancer research is increasingly dependent on access to biospecimens from subjects that have been followed-up for future health outcomes. This is achieved using longitudinal follow-up of cohorts and biobanks using cancer registry linkages. All over the world, more and more large population-based cohorts and advanced biobanking facilities are established. International standardisation and networking in the linkage of cohorts and biobanks to cancer registries is required in order to enable international cancer research and comparability of research results. An international operating procedure and standard minimum dataset for linkages of biobanks, cohorts and cancer registries is proposed. An internationally comparable provision of well characterised study bases for molecular cancer research will be an essential prerequisite for the success of translational medicine. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]