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Background: Norway has achieved a noteworthy reduction in smoking prevalence over the past forty years. In 2015, 13% of Norwegians aged 13-74 smoked daily and a further 9% smoked occasionally. One of the objectives of the Norwegian 2013-16 national strategy for tobacco control is to achieve a reduction in the daily smoking prevalence to<10% by 2016. This paper aims to estimate how long it will take for Norway to achieve the 10% smoking prevalence. Methods: A dynamic forecasting model using smoking prevalence data from national survey data on the prevalence of current, former and never smokers in the Norwegian population from 1985 to 2012 was used to estimate future smoking prevalence in the Norwegian population based on a continuation of current patterns in smoking cessation and initiation rates. Results: The result suggests that Norway's smoking prevalence among men and women will continue to decline if current trends of smoking initiation and cessation continue. Our model predicts, based on figures for 1985-2012, that the prevalence of current daily and occasional smoking among men and women will not fall below the 10% mark until 2029 for men and 2026 for women, if current trends continue. Conclusion: Smoking is likely to remain an important public health issue in Norway for many years. New strategies are needed to accelerate the decline in smoking in Norway. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: During the global pandemic of A/H1N1/California/07/2009 (A/H1N1/Cal) influenza, many governments signed contracts with vaccine producers for a universal influenza immunization program and bought hundreds of millions of vaccines doses. We argue that, as Health Ministers assumed the occurrence of the worst possible scenario (generalized pandemic influenza) and followed the strong version of the Precautionary Principle, they undervalued the possibility of mild or weak pandemic wave. Methodology: An alternative decision rule, based on the non-extensive entropy principle, is introduced, and a different Precautionary Principle characterization is applied. This approach values extreme negative results (catastrophic events) in a different way and predicts more plausible and mild events. It introduces less pessimistic forecasts in the case of uncertain influenza pandemic outbreaks. A simplified application is presented using seasonal data of morbidity and severity among Italian children influenza-like illness for the period 2003–10. Principal Findings: Established literature results predict an average attack rate of not less than 15% for the next pandemic influenza [Meltzer M, Cox N, Fukuda K. The economic impact of pandemic influenza in the United States: implications for setting priorities for interventions. Emerg Infect Dis 1999;5:659–71; Meltzer M, Cox N, Fukuda K. Modeling the Economic Impact of Pandemic Influenza in the United States: Implications for Setting Priorities for Intervention. Background paper. Atlanta, GA: CDC, 1999. Available at: http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol5no5/melt_back.htm (7 January 2011, date last accessed))]. The strong version of the Precautionary Principle would suggest using this prediction for vaccination campaigns. On the contrary, the non-extensive maximum entropy principle predicts a lower attack rate, which induces a 20% saving in public funding for vaccines doses. Conclusions: The need for an effective influenza pandemic prevention program, coupled with an efficient use of public funding, calls for a rethinking of the Precautionary Principle. The non-extensive maximum entropy principle, which incorporates vague and incomplete information available to decision makers, produces a more coherent forecast of possible influenza pandemic and a conservative spending in public funding. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]