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Species formation is a central topic in biology, and a large body of theoretical work has explored the conditions under which speciation occurs, including whether speciation dynamics are gradual or abrupt. In some cases of abrupt speciation, differentiation slowly builds up until it reaches a threshold, at which point linkage disequilibrium (LD) and divergent selection enter a positive feedback loop that triggers accelerated change. Notably, such abrupt transitions powered by a positive feedback have also been observed in a range of other systems. Efforts to anticipate abrupt transitions have led to the development of "early warning signals" (EWS), that is, specific statistical patterns preceding abrupt transitions. Examples of EWS are rising autocorrelation and variance in time-series data due to the reduction of the ability of the system to recover from disturbances. Here, we investigate whether speciation dynamics in theoretical models also exhibit EWS. Using a model of genetic divergence between two populations, we search for EWS before gradual and abrupt speciation events. We do so using six different metrics of differentiation: the effective migration rate, the number of selected loci, the mean fitness of our studied population, LD, FST, and Dabs, a metric analogous to DXY. We find evidence for EWS, with a heterogeneity in their strength among differentiation metrics. We specifically identify FST and the effective migration rate as the most reliable EWS of upcoming abrupt speciation events. Our results provide initial insights into potential EWS of impending speciation and contribute to efforts to generalize the mechanisms underlying EWS., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for the Study of Evolution (SSE).)

The concept of a "speciation continuum" has gained popularity in recent decades. It emphasizes speciation as a continuous process that may be studied by comparing contemporary population pairs that show differing levels of divergence. In their recent perspective article in Evolution, Stankowski and Ravinet provided a valuable service by formally defining the speciation continuum as a continuum of reproductive isolation, based on opinions gathered from a survey of speciation researchers. While we agree that the speciation continuum has been a useful concept to advance the understanding of the speciation process, some intrinsic limitations exist. Here, we advocate for a multivariate extension, the speciation hypercube, first proposed by Dieckmann et al. in 2004, but rarely used since. We extend the idea of the speciation cube and suggest it has strong conceptual and practical advantages over a one-dimensional model. We illustrate how the speciation hypercube can be used to visualize and compare different speciation trajectories, providing new insights into the processes and mechanisms of speciation. A key strength of the speciation hypercube is that it provides a unifying framework for speciation research, as it allows questions from apparently disparate subfields to be addressed in a single conceptual model., (© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for the Study of Evolution (SSE). All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Our ability to predict natural phenomena can be limited by incomplete information. This issue is exemplified by "Laplace's demon," an imaginary creature proposed in the 18th century, who knew everything about everything, and thus could predict the full nature of the universe forward or backward in time. Quantum mechanics, among other things, has cast doubt on the possibility of Laplace's demon in the full sense, but the idea still serves as a useful metaphor for thinking about the extent to which prediction is limited by incomplete information on deterministic processes versus random factors. Here, we use simple analytical models and computer simulations to illustrate how data limits can be captured in a Bayesian framework, and how they influence our ability to predict evolution. We show how uncertainty in measurements of natural selection, or low predictability of external environmental factors affecting selection, can greatly reduce predictive power, often swamping the influence of intrinsic randomness caused by genetic drift. Thus, more accurate knowledge concerning the causes and action of natural selection is key to improving prediction. Fortunately, our analyses and simulations show quantitatively that reasonable improvements in data quantity and quality can meaningfully increase predictability., (© 2022 The Authors. Evolution © 2022 The Society for the Study of Evolution.)

The origins of novel traits are often studied using species trees and modeling phenotypes as different states of the same character, an approach that cannot always distinguish multiple origins from fewer origins followed by reversals. We address this issue by studying the origins of C 4 photosynthesis, an adaptation to warm and dry conditions, in the grass Alloteropsis. We dissect the C 4 trait into its components, and show two independent origins of the C 4 phenotype via different anatomical modifications, and the use of distinct sets of genes. Further, inference of enzyme adaptation suggests that one of the two groups encompasses two transitions to a full C 4 state from a common ancestor with an intermediate phenotype that had some C 4 anatomical and biochemical components. Molecular dating of C 4 genes confirms the introgression of two key C 4 components between species, while the inheritance of all others matches the species tree. The number of origins consequently varies among C 4 components, a scenario that could not have been inferred from analyses of the species tree alone. Our results highlight the power of studying individual components of complex traits to reconstruct trajectories toward novel adaptations., (© 2017 The Author(s). Evolution published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The Society for the Study of Evolution.)

Theory predicts that dispersal throughout metapopulations has a variety of consequences for the abundance and distribution of species. Immigration is predicted to increase abundance and habitat patch occupancy, but gene flow can have both positive and negative demographic consequences. Here, we address the eco-evolutionary effects of dispersal in a wild metapopulation of the stick insect Timema cristinae, which exhibits variable degrees of local adaptation throughout a heterogeneous habitat patch network of two host-plant species. To disentangle the ecological and evolutionary contributions of dispersal to habitat patch occupancy and abundance, we contrasted the effects of connectivity to populations inhabiting conspecific host plants and those inhabiting the alternate host plant. Both types of connectivity should increase patch occupancy and abundance through increased immigration and sharing of beneficial alleles through gene flow. However, connectivity to populations inhabiting the alternate host-plant species may uniquely cause maladaptive gene flow that counters the positive demographic effects of immigration. Supporting these predictions, we find the relationship between patch occupancy and alternate-host connectivity to be significantly smaller in slope than the relationship between patch occupancy and conspecific-host connectivity. Our findings illustrate the ecological and evolutionary roles of dispersal in driving the distribution and abundance of species., (© 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.)

Ecology and genetics are both of general interest to evolutionary biologists as they can influence the phenotypic and genetic response to selection. The stick insects Timema podura and Timema cristinae exhibit a green/melanistic body color polymorphism that is subject to different ecologically based selective regimes in the two species. Here, we describe aspects of the genetics of this color polymorphism in T. podura, and compare this to previous results in T. cristinae. We first show that similar color phenotypes of the two species cluster in phenotypic space. We then use genome-wide association mapping to show that in both species, color is controlled by few loci, dominance relationships between color alleles are the same, and SNPs associated with color phenotypes colocalize to the same linkage group. Regions within this linkage group that harbor genetic variants associated with color exhibit elevated linkage disequilibrium relative to genome wide expectations, but more strongly so in T. cristinae. We use these results to discuss predictions regarding how the genetics of color could influence levels of phenotypic and genetic variation that segregate within and between populations of T. podura and T. cristinae, drawing parallels with other organisms., (© 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.)

A major issue in evolutionary biology is explaining patterns of differentiation observed in population genomic data, as divergence can be due to both direct selection on a locus and genetic hitchhiking. "Divergence hitchhiking" (DH) theory postulates that divergent selection on a locus reduces gene flow at physically linked sites, facilitating the formation of localized clusters of tightly linked, diverged loci. "Genome hitchhiking" (GH) theory emphasizes genome-wide effects of divergent selection. Past theoretical investigations of DH and GH focused on static snapshots of divergence. Here, we used simulations assessing a variety of strengths of selection, migration rates, population sizes, and mutation rates to investigate the relative importance of direct selection, GH, and DH in facilitating the dynamic buildup of genomic divergence as speciation proceeds through time. When divergently selected mutations were limiting, GH promoted divergence, but DH had little measurable effect. When populations were small and divergently selected mutations were common, DH enhanced the accumulation of weakly selected mutations, but this contributed little to reproductive isolation. In general, GH promoted reproductive isolation by reducing effective migration rates below that due to direct selection alone, and was important for genome-wide "congealing" or "coupling" of differentiation (F(ST)) across loci as speciation progressed., (© 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.)

Studies of related populations varying in their degrees of reproductive isolation can provide insights into speciation. Here, the transition from partially isolated host races to more fully separated sibling species is investigated by comparing patterns of genetic differentiation between recently evolved (∼150 generations) apple and ancestral hawthorn-infesting populations of Rhagoletis pomonella to their sister taxon, the undescribed flowering dogwood fly attacking Cornus florida. No fixed or diagnostic private alleles differentiating the three populations were found at any of 23 microsatellites and 10 allozymes scored. Nevertheless, allele frequency differences were sufficient across loci for flowering dogwood fly populations from multiple localities to form a diagnosable genotypic cluster distinct from apple and hawthorn flies, indicative of species status. Genome-wide patterns of differentiation were correlated between the host races and species pair comparisons along the majority of chromosomes, suggesting that similar disruptive selection pressures affect most loci. However, differentiation was more pronounced, with some additional regions showing elevated divergence, for the species pair comparison. Our results imply that Rhagoletis sibling species such as the flowering dogwood fly represent host races writ large, with the transition to species status primarily resulting from increased divergence of the same regions separating apple and hawthorn flies., (© 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.)

Studies of patterns of differentiation across genomes are accumulating, yet integrative work that combines approaches and fully capitalizes on new technologies to test explicit hypotheses is still rare. Thus, debates persist about the rate, magnitude, and causes of genomic change. This special section is devoted to helping resolve these debates. The eight studies contained within demonstrate how we can begin to move away from vague metaphors toward quantitative and more precise descriptors of patterns of genetic architecture and divergence. However, a particular genomic pattern can often arise via different combinations of various processes such as selection, gene flow, recombination, mutation, genetic drift, and demographic variability. Thus, substantial challenges remain in elucidating which evolutionary processes generated observed genomic patterns. Nonetheless, the studies in this section demonstrate ways forward toward bridging pattern and process, including experimental work, genetic mapping, increased knowledge of natural history and demography, and comparative studies spanning taxa at different points in the speciation continuum. Such collective work will lead to more powerful hypothesis testing. Future work can also help better integrate the contributions of ecology, genome structure (e.g., inversions and translocations), and genetic conflict to genome evolution., (© 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.)

In a recent paper, Yukilevich (2012) showed that asymmetries between Drosophila species in the strength of premating isolation tend to match asymmetries in the costs of hybridization (inferred from asymmetries in the strength of postzygotic isolation and range sizes). The results provide novel evidence that the outcome of reinforcement can depend on the strength and frequency of selection against hybridization. Here, I reanalyze the data to demonstrate that another (unconsidered) factor, namely the quantitative degree of sympatry between species, also predictably affects reinforcement. Specifically, premating isolation is strongest at intermediate degrees of sympatry. This result complements, rather than challenges, those of Yukilevich (2012). One possible explanation for this newly discovered pattern is that when the degree of sympatry is small, selection for avoidance of hybridization is rare, but when the degree of sympatry is large, homogenizing gene flow overcomes reinforcing selection. Thus, reinforcement may depend on the balance between selection and gene flow. However, the current work examined degree of sympatry, not gene flow itself. Thus, further data on gene flow levels in Drosophila is required to test this hypothesis, which emerged from the patterns reported here., (© 2012 The Author(s). Evolution© 2012 The Society for the Study of Evolution.)

Chromosomal inversions are ubiquitous in nature and of great significance for understanding adaptation and speciation. Inversions were the first markers used to investigate the genetic structure of natural populations, leading to the concept of coadapted gene complexes and theories concerning founder effects and genetic drift in small populations. However, we still lack elements of a general theory accounting for the origins and distribution of inversions in nature. Here, we use computer simulations to show that a "mixed geographic mode" of evolution involving allopatric separation of populations followed by secondary contact and gene flow generates chromosomal divergence by natural selection under wider conditions than previous hypotheses. This occurs because inversions arising in allopatry contain a full complement of locally adapted genes. Once gene flow ensues, reduced recombination within inversions keeps these favorable genotypic combinations intact, resulting in inverted genomic regions being favored over collinear regions. This process allows inversions to establish to high frequencies. Our model can account for several classic patterns in the geographic distribution of inversions and highlights how selection on standing genetic variation allows rapid chromosomal evolution without the waiting time for new mutations. As inversion differences often separate closely related taxa, mixed modes of divergence could be common., (© 2011 The Author(s). Evolution© 2011 The Society for the Study of Evolution.)

Genes under divergent selection flow less readily between populations than other loci. This observation has led to verbal "divergence hitchhiking" models of speciation in which decreased interpopulation gene flow surrounding loci under divergent selection can generate large regions of differentiation within the genome (genomic islands). The efficacy of this model in promoting speciation depends on the size of the region affected by divergence hitchhiking. Empirical evidence is mixed, with examples of both large and small genomic islands. To address these empirical discrepancies and to formalize the theory, we present mathematical models of divergence hitchhiking, which examine neutral differentiation around selected sites. For a single locus under selection, regions of differentiation do not extend far along a chromosome away from a selected site unless both effective population sizes and migration rates are low. When multiple loci are considered, regions of differentiation can be larger. However, with many loci under selection, genome-wide divergence occurs and genomic islands are erased. The results show that divergence hitchhiking can generate large regions of differentiation, but that the conditions under which this occurs are limited. Thus, speciation may often require multifarious selection acting on many, isolated and physically unlinked genes. How hitchhiking promotes further adaptive divergence warrants consideration.

Many factors can promote speciation, and one which has received much attention is chromosomal inversions. A number of models propose that the recombination suppressing effects of inversions facilitate the maintenance of differences between interbreeding populations in genes affecting adaptive divergence and reproductive isolation. These models predict that such genes will disproportionately reside within inversions, rather than in collinear regions. This hypothesis has received some support, but exceptions exist. Additionally, the effects of known low levels of recombination within inversions on these models are uninvestigated. Here, simulations are used to compare the maintenance of genetic differences between populations following secondary contact and hybridization in different inversion models. We compare regions with no recombination within them to regions with low recombination and to collinear regions with free recombination. Our most general finding is that the low levels of recombination within an inversion often result in the loss of accentuated divergence in inverted regions compared to collinear ones. We conclude that inversions can facilitate the maintenance of species differences under some conditions, but that large or qualitative differences between inverted and collinear regions need not occur. We also find that strong selection facilitates maintenance of divergence in a manner analogous to inversions.

Adaptive population divergence is often driven by divergent natural selection, but can be constrained by the homogenizing effect of gene flow between populations. Indeed, a common pattern in nature is an inverse correlation between the degree of adaptive phenotypic divergence between populations and levels of gene flow between populations. However, there is essentially no experimental data on whether this correlation arises because gene flow constrains adaptation or, conversely, because adaptive divergence causes barriers to gene flow (ecological speciation). Here, I report increased adaptive divergence in cryptic color pattern between a pair of Timema insect populations following an experimental reduction in between-population gene flow. The reduction in gene flow arose due to a natural experiment, and thus was not replicated at a second site. However, temporal replication of the trends among six generations of data, coupled with a lack of increased adaptive divergence for two other population pairs where gene flow was not manipulated (i.e., control sites), argues that the results did not arise by chance. Estimates of dispersal ability and population size further support reduced gene flow, rather than increased genetic drift, as the cause of divergence. Thus, the findings provide experimental evidence that gene flow constrains adaptation in nature.

This study uses a comparative genome scan to evaluate the contributions of host plant related divergent selection to genetic differentiation and ecological speciation in maple- and willow-associated populations of Neochlamisus bebbianae leaf beetles. For each of 15 pairwise population comparisons, we identified "outlier loci" whose strong differentiation putatively reflects divergent selection. Of 447 AFLP loci, 15% were outliers across multiple population comparisons, and low linkage disequilibrium indicated that these outliers derived from multiple regions of the genome. Outliers were further classified as "host-specific" if repeatedly observed in "different-host" population comparisons but never in "same-host" comparisons. Outliers exhibiting the opposite pattern were analogously classified as "host-independent." Host-specific outliers represented 5% of all loci and were more frequent than host-independent outliers, thus revealing a large role for host-adaptation in population genomic differentiation. Evidence that host-related selection can promote divergence despite gene flow was provided by population trees. These were structured by host-association when datasets included host-specific outliers, but not when based on neutral loci, which united sympatric populations. Lastly, three host-specific outliers were highly differentiated in all nine different-host comparisons. Because host-adaptation promotes reproductive isolation in these beetles, these loci provide promising candidate gene regions for future molecular studies of ecological speciation.

Genetic differentiation can be highly variable across the genome. For example, loci under divergent selection and those tightly linked to them may exhibit elevated differentiation compared to neutral regions. These represent "outlier loci" whose differentiation exceeds neutral expectations. Adaptive divergence can also increase genome-wide differentiation by promoting general barriers to neutral gene flow, thereby facilitating genomic divergence via genetic drift. This latter process can yield a positive correlation between adaptive phenotypic divergence and neutral genetic differentiation (described here as "isolation-by-adaptation"). Here, we examine both these processes by combining an AFLP genome scan of two host plant ecotypes of Timema cristinae walking-sticks with existing data on adaptive phenotypic divergence and ecological speciation in these insects. We found that about 8% of loci are outliers in multiple population comparisons. Replicated comparisons between population-pairs using the same versus different host species revealed that 1-2% of loci are subject to host-related selection specifically. Locus-specific analyses revealed that up to 10% of putatively neutral (nonoutlier) AFLP loci exhibit significant isolation-by-adaptation. Our results suggest that selection may affect differentiation directly, via linkage, or by facilitating genetic drift. They thus illustrate the varied and sometimes nonintuitive contributions of selection to heterogeneous genomic differentiation.

Migration tends to oppose the effects of divergent natural selection among populations. Numerous theoretical and empirical studies have demonstrated that this migration-selection balance constrains genetic divergence among populations. In contrast, relatively few studies have examined immigration's effects on fitness and natural selection within recipient populations. By constraining local adaptation, migration can lead to reduced fitness, known as a "migration load," which in turn causes persistent natural selection. We develop a simple two-island model of migration-selection balance that, although very general, also reflects the natural history of Timema cristinae walking-stick insects that inhabit two host plant species that favor different cryptic color patterns. We derive theoretical predictions about how migration rates affect the level of maladaptation within populations (measured as the frequency of less-cryptic color-pattern morphs), which in turn determines the selection differential (the within-generation morph frequency change). Using data on color morph frequencies from 25 natural populations, we confirm previous results showing that maladaptation is higher in populations receiving more immigrants. We then present novel evidence that this increased maladaptation leads to larger selection differentials, consistent with our model. Our results provide comparative evidence that immigration elevates the variance in fitness, which in turn leads to larger selection differentials, consistent with Fisher's Theorem of Natural Selection. However, we also find evidence that recurrent adult migration between parapatric populations may tend to obscure the effects of selection.

The classification of reproductive isolating barriers laid out by Dobzhansky and Mayr has motivated and structured decades of research on speciation. We argue, however, that this classification is incomplete and that the unique contributions of a major source of reproductive isolation have often been overlooked. Here, we describe reproductive barriers that derive from the reduced survival of immigrants upon reaching foreign habitats that are ecologically divergent from their native habitat. This selection against immigrants reduces encounters and thus mating opportunities between individuals from divergently adapted populations. It also reduces the likelihood that successfully mated immigrant females will survive long enough to produce their hybrid offspring. Thus, natural selection against immigrants results in distinctive elements of premating and postmating reproductive isolation that we hereby dub "immigrant inviability." We quantify the contributions of immigrant inviability to total reproductive isolation by examining study systems where multiple components of reproductive isolation have been measured and demonstrate that these contributions are frequently greater than those of traditionally recognized reproductive barriers. The relevance of immigrant inviability is further illustrated by a consideration of population-genetic theory, a review of selection against immigrant alleles in hybrid zone studies, and an examination of its participation in feedback loops that influence the evolution of additional reproductive barriers. Because some degree of immigrant inviability will commonly exist between populations that exhibit adaptive ecological divergence, we emphasize that these barriers play critical roles in ecological modes of speciation. We hope that the formal recognition of immigrant inviability and our demonstration of its evolutionary importance will stimulate more explicit empirical studies of its contributions to speciation.