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We used time-varying effect modelling of two very large samples of fourth-grade students (N[subscript reading] = 148,240, N[subscript mathematics] = 152,220) to investigate associations between adoption and over-time implementation of a de facto cap on special education service receipt and over-time likelihoods of disability identification from 2003 to 2017 for Texas students including those from historically marginalized communities. Following the cap's adoption, Texas students who are Black or English Language Learners (ELLs) were gradually less likely to have been identified as having disabilities than students in adjoining statues who are Black or ELLs in analyses adjusting for individual academic achievement, family economic disadvantage, school fixed effects, and other explanatory factors. Findings provide additional evidence of the cap's specific associations with disability identification disparities for demographic populations especially likely to have experienced violations of the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act's Child Find and free and appropriate public education requirements.

Whether students of color are more or less likely to be identified as having disabilities than similarly situated students who are White in U.S. states with histories of de jure and de facto racial segregation is currently unknown. Unadjusted analyses of large samples of students attending elementary and middle schools in the U.S. South yielded little evidence of minority overrepresentation in special education. In analyses adjusted for strong confounds (e.g., family income, student-level achievement), students of color were "less" likely than White students to be identified as having disabilities. Underidentification was evident (a) for the U.S. South in aggregate, (b) across 11 Southern states that we separately examined, (c) in cross-sectional samples assessed in 2003 and 2015, and (d) for specific disability conditions. Black and Hispanic students attending schools in the U.S. South have been and continue to be less likely to be identified as having disabilities than otherwise similar White students.

We used time-varying effect modelling of two very large samples of fourth-grade students (Nreading = 148,240, Nmathematics = 152,220) to investigate associations between adoption and over-time implementation of a de facto cap on special education service receipt and over-time likelihoods of disability identification from 2003 to 2017 for Texas students including those from historically marginalized communities. Following the cap's adoption, Texas students who are Black or English Language Learners (ELLs) were gradually less likely to have been identified as having disabilities than students in adjoining statues who are Black or ELLs in analyses adjusting for individual academic achievement, family economic disadvantage, school fixed effects, and other explanatory factors. Findings provide additional evidence of the cap's specific associations with disability identification disparities for demographic populations especially likely to have experienced violations of the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act's Child Find and free and appropriate public education requirements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]