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• Propose a framework for measuring a maturity level of performance-based budgeting. • Develop a parallel network data envelopment analysis model. • Consider the hierarchical configuration of performance indicators. • Use fuzzy sets theory to deal with vagueness and ambiguity. • Present a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the developed framework. Performance-based budgeting (PBB) aims to formulate and manage public budgetary resources to improve managerial decisions based on actual performance measures of agencies. Although the PBB system has been overwhelmingly applied by various agencies, the progress and maturity of its implementation process are not satisfactory at large. Therefore, it warrants to find, evaluate and improve the performance of organisations in relation to implementing a PBB system. To do so, the composite indicators (CIs) have been proposed to aggregate multiple indicators associated with the PBB system, but their employment is contentious as they often lean on ad-hoc and troublesome assumptions. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) methods as a powerful and established tool help to contend with key limitations of CIs. Although the original DEA method ignores an internal production process, the knowledge of the internal structure of the PBB systems and indicators is of importance to provide further insights when assessing the performance of PBB systems. In this paper, we present a budget assessment framework by breaking a PBB system into two parallel stages including operations performance (OP) and financial performance enhancement (FPE) to open up the black-box structure of the system and consider the indicator hierarchy configuration of each stage. In situations of the hierarchical configuration of indicators, we develop a multilayer parallel network DEA-based CIs model to measure the PBB maturity levels of the system and its stages. It is shown that the discrimination power of the proposed multilayer model is better than the existing models with one layer and in situations of relatively small number of DMUs the model developed in this paper can be a good solution to the dimension reduction of indicators. Moreover, this research leverages fuzzy logic to surmount the subjective information that is often available in collecting indicators of the PBB systems. The major contribution of this research is to examine a case study of a PBB maturity award in Iran, as a developing country with a myriad of financial challenges, to adopt a PBB maturity model as well as point towards the efficacy and applicability of the proposed framework in practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work focuses on the problem of constructing accurate prediction models using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) from data that are scarce and poorly scaled. Many real-world problems have limited data to work with and yet require models with high prediction accuracy. Due to the fuzzy nature of many data sets, it is appropriate to construct prediction models using fuzzy inference systems (FIS), rather than traditional artificial neural network (ANN) models. However, the scarcity of the data raises serious concerns when attempting to construct models of this type. In this paper, we address the problem of constructing accurate prediction models using ANFIS in circumstances where capturing large amounts of data is difficult. We propose a new approach, using robust data expansion methods to enhance the data carefully. This approach provides the learning algorithm with enough representative data to allow all of the parameters (premise and consequent) to be optimised. We compare and contrast the effectiveness in reducing prediction error for three specific expansion models using radial basis function (RBF) kernels. When expanding data, for which the underlying smoothness properties are not known, there is often a danger of over-smoothing. This is usually noticeable at turning points and can occur when fitting the data using polynomials or cubic splines for example. To avoid over-smoothing, we introduce a modified multiquadric approach that allows smooth, near-interpolation while maintaining the desirable shape-preserving properties of the data. The proposed method is explained through two case studies — the first to predict gasoline consumption for the oil/fuel industry in Iraq and the second for predicting natural gas consumption in Iran. This is the first study that uses adjustable, shape-preserving re-sampling methods for optimising ANFIS models in low data environments. • ANFIS networks capture complexities not easily found using traditional ANNs. • Model complexity versus data sample size is a significant practical problem. • Data augmentation methods can be constructed using robust continuous models. • Multiquadric RBFs can be easily tuned to provide robust, accurate data expansion. • Complex models can be built with confidence using reliable data expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]